The Russian-Ukrainian War Thread

[2007yellow430]

Well Putin could openly declare to the world- "I regard the conflict as being at an end because I've liberated and secured the pro-Russian Donbas and have established a territorial link with the Crimea"
Zelensky could then say "Okay let's have a ceasefire and end hostilities".
Maybe they should call in a third party like Trump to finalise the ceasefire, he's already publicly said "I could end the war in 24 hours"..

I think you need to get to reality. Zelinsky isn’t going to do that, and Trump is headed to jail (they’ll get him on at least one of the indictments).

Art

 

[Feanor]

Well Putin could openly declare to the world- "I regard the conflict as being at an end because I've liberated and secured the pro-Russian Donbas and have established a territorial link with the Crimea"
Zelensky could then say "Okay let's have a ceasefire and end hostilities".
Maybe they should call in a third party like Trump to finalise the ceasefire, he's already publicly said "I could end the war in 24 hours"..

I don't think a ceasefire with a frozen conflict is good for either side. I think we need a final resolution. It would open the road to for Ukraine and Russia to move forward from this mess instead of being stuck in it for decades to come.

 

[Mainframe]

Well Putin could openly declare to the world- "I regard the conflict as being at an end because I've liberated and secured the pro-Russian Donbas and have established a territorial link with the Crimea"
Zelensky could then say "Okay let's have a ceasefire and end hostilities".
Maybe they should call in a third party like Trump to finalise the ceasefire, he's already publicly said "I could end the war in 24 hours"..

I think you need to get to reality. Zelinsky isn’t going to do that, and Trump is headed to jail (they’ll get him on at least one of the indictments).

Zelensky needs to get real and think "Well Vlad has dug in and there's no point in uselessly knocking my troops heads against his fortified wall in a war of attrition that I can't win; I'd better start thinking ceasefire."
But he's not thinking like that, he keeps asking the west for more weaponry so that he can go on sticking pins in the Russki bear.

 

[Mainframe]

I don't think a ceasefire with a frozen conflict is good for either side. I think we need a final resolution. It would open the road to for Ukraine and Russia to move forward from this mess instead of being stuck in it for decades to come.

Yes one way out to end it now would be for both sides to announce they're content: Zel could say- "Russia tried to seize Ukraine but we limited their gains to the territory in this map", and Putin could say "My aim was to secure the Donbas and the land link with Crimea, so I consider my objectives are achieved"

 

[Feanor]

Yes one way out to end it now would be for both sides to announce they're content: Zel could say- "Russia tried to seize Ukraine but we limited their gains to the territory in this map", and Putin could say "My aim was to secure the Donbas and the land link with Crimea, so I consider my objectives are achieved"
View attachment 50740

It would require recognition of territory, and renouncement of claims. I mean, the map is also wrong since Artemovsk/Bakhmut is in Russian hands, but in general I think a more reasonable one would involve Russia giving up Zaporozhye/Kherson and ceasing all objections to NATO/EU membership in exchange for recognition of the rest of the territory. Likely some serious Russian "reconstruction assistance" would also be required. It could be spun as a gesture of goodwill for all the Russians still living in Ukraine who would presumably also benefit. There probably also needs to be some sort of either demilitarized zone around Donetsk, or possibly even Ukraine handing over some of the mostly empty areas immediately outside the city. Currently it's in easy artillery range and while the political and strategic significance of this territory is tiny, from a safety standpoint it would do a lot for the city. There probably also need to be deals on water use, and other messy points included in this.

 

[ImperatorOrbis]

My sollution to the end the conflict.
-Russia gets Crimea and seperatist republics of Donetsk and Luhansk. Recognized and ratified by UN.
-Ukraine is a sovergin state that is free to join whatever organisations it wants (EU/NATO).
-People in the area are free to choose and move to the country they think they belong to.
-OPTIONAL: Sanctions against Russia are dropped and Russia pays Ukraine war reparations. (Cannot really order other countries to drop sanctions or trust Russia to pay war reps)

Putin gets to save his face and Ukraine gets peace/EU but looses some land.

 

[StobieWan]

The problem with Zelensky making a deal with Putin, is that Putin can't be trusted. I get that there are counterclaims on both sides and neither has been shy of being elastic with the truth, but Putin is a corrupt politician in charge of a massively corrupt oligarchy.

I'm guessing that one of the outcomes that Zelensky is hoping for is that Putin sufferers an unfortunate personal reversal (like a bullet in the back of the head).

 

[vikingatespam]

Well Putin could openly declare to the world- "I regard the conflict as being at an end because I've liberated and secured the pro-Russian Donbas and have established a territorial link with the Crimea"
Zelensky could then say "Okay let's have a ceasefire and end hostilities".
Maybe they should call in a third party like Trump to finalise the ceasefire, he's already publicly said "I could end the war in 24 hours"..

Thats stance looks pretty close to the RU point of view with nothing given to UKR. That doesnt really sound like a compromise, does it ?

Trump can claim anything he wants, as he has liked to do. Accomplishing something is something else.

 

[vikingatespam]

Yes one way out to end it now would be for both sides to announce they're content: Zel could say- "Russia tried to seize Ukraine but we limited their gains to the territory in this map", and Putin could say "My aim was to secure the Donbas and the land link with Crimea, so I consider my objectives are achieved"

Thats certainly where we might end up if neither side can make progress on land. Should the west then remove sanctions from RU ?

 

[vikingatespam]

The problem with Zelensky making a deal with Putin, is that Putin can't be trusted. I get that there are counterclaims on both sides and neither has been shy of being elastic with the truth, but Putin is a corrupt politician in charge of a massively corrupt oligarchy.

I'm guessing that one of the outcomes that Zelensky is hoping for is that Putin sufferers an unfortunate personal reversal (like a bullet in the back of the head).

Sure, I wouldnt trust Putin either, but once UKR goes NATO, Putin can sit and spin, and bask in the knowledge that he initiated the greatest increase in NATO in recent years, and started an arms war he cannot win.

 

[PervasiveSurveillance]

My sollution to the end the conflict.
-Russia gets Crimea and seperatist republics of Donetsk and Luhansk. Recognized and ratified by UN.
-Ukraine is a sovergin state that is free to join whatever organisations it wants (EU/NATO).
-People in the area are free to choose and move to the country they think they belong to.
-OPTIONAL: Sanctions against Russia are dropped and Russia pays Ukraine war reparations. (Cannot really order other countries to drop sanctions or trust Russia to pay war reps)
View attachment 50742
Putin gets to save his face and Ukraine gets peace/EU but looses some land.

This might seem fair on its face, but fair isn't really the game. The problem with all the peace proposals I've seen is that they ignore why the war is happening in the first place. Russia has made it clear that they will not tolerate a NATO-armed and aligned Ukraine, and they will not give back Crimea under any circumstances. To be brutally honest it does not actually matter what Ukraine wants or will agree to. They will do whatever the US tells them to do, because without the US there is no Ukrainian war effort. That may not be fair but it's the truth.

Right now I see no reason to believe Russia is backing off its war aims, and I also see no reason to believe the US is willing to push Ukraine into accepting said aims. The NATO bit will be the sticking point, and Russian leadership has made it clear this is not up for negotiation. I think a negotiated peace in the near term is therefore extremely unlikely, since the Biden administration will almost certainly not give in to the Russians on both NATO and territorial claims. Neither side is weakened enough to accept the others' terms, and both likely believe they can change the situation to favor themselves more over the next year.

 

[swerve]

Zelensky is playing a dangerous game by sticking pins in the russian bear with these recent drone strikes that served no useful purpose at all except to provoke Putin into retaliating-

That's silly. Russia has been attacking Ukraine for 18 months. The intensity of its attacks doesn't drop off when the Ukrainians hold back.

Your posts read like Russian propaganda, blaming the Ukrainians for the Russians attacking them. How dare they defend themselves? Don't they understand that it's wrong to fight back & they should supinely accept Russian air raids, missile attacks, etc.?

 

[rsemmes]

Thats stance looks pretty close to the RU point of view with nothing given to UKR. That doesnt really sound like a compromise, does it ?

Trump can claim anything he wants, as he has liked to do. Accomplishing something is something else.

Then, an interesting question would be, what Ukraine has accomplished and what Russia has accomplished? (100.000 sq km?)

 

[vikingatespam]

Then, an interesting question would be, what Ukraine has accomplished and what Russia has accomplished? (100.000 sq km?)

A good question:

What has UKR accomplished:
- maintained its existence as an independent political entity
- thrown out RU from half its gains
- mobilized massive political, economic and sympathy and military aid

What has RU accomplished:
- firmly destroyed its image of second army of the world
- managed to take some of UKR territory, at what is estimated by various sources to be frightful casualties
- awarded NATO salesman of the year
- managed to get itself into serious economic sanctions

OK, Im biased and snarky.

At this point, if the UKR cant made real headway, this appears to be headed for a stalemate. I agree with post 8286 in where this could end up.

 

[vikingatespam]

I forgot to post this yesterday:

Russia and Ukraine overestimate other side’s deaths, says study

Russia underestimates the losses of its own soldiers in Ukraine, according to an international study with Swiss participation.

www.swissinfo.ch

"Russia clearly underestimates the losses of its own soldiers in its war against Ukraine, according to an international study with Swiss participation."

"Nearly five times as many Russians as Ukrainians have died in the first year following Russia’s invasion of its neighbour on February 24, 2022, according to the study publishedExternal link in the latest edition of the specialist journal "Pnas Political Science"."

I havnt heard of this source before, but they estimate ~77K RU KIA, which seems to scale well with other estimates of 50K KIA for earlier times.

 

[Stuart M]

Zelensky's drone strikes on Moscow were like pinpricks for all the good they did except to enrage Putin and give him the excuse to hit back.
Zel should stop it and get round the negotiating table to work out a ceasefire, it wouldn't be difficult.
As regards WW2, the Allies didn't stick any little pins in Germany, they went the whole hog..
"When I look round to see how we can win the war I see that there is only one sure path...and that is absolutely devastating, exterminating attack by very heavy bombers from this country upon the Nazi homeland"
-Winston Churchill July 1940

Given that Putin is invading Ukraine, what more is he going to do after a drone strike on Moscow, nuke them, dance naked in Red Square?

@Stuart M
I don't know whether to laugh at this or delete because you now have forced me to undertake months of therapy due to the mental images of Putin dancing naked in Red Square. I wonder if imagery of Putin dancing naked in Red Square is against the Geneva Conventions.

Ngatimozart

 

[tonnyc]

Zelensky needs to get real and think "Well Vlad has dug in and there's no point in uselessly knocking my troops heads against his fortified wall in a war of attrition that I can't win; I'd better start thinking ceasefire."

I am puzzled that people keep thinking this is politically feasible. He can't. Modern day nationalism regards the whole country as one indivisible whole and any serious talk about giving away parts of it is traitorous. And all modern nation-states pretty much adopts this. China is not going to give up on Taiwan no matter how sensible it is to just acknowledge it as it's own country and just treat it as a valuable trade partner. No amount of money will convince the USA to sell Alaska to Russia and if Russia threatens to glass the whole USA over it the response will be bring it on, we'll glass you right back. Is the UK willing to give up on Falkland Islands? It's costing them more money than it brings.

Heck, there are a long list of border disputes where logically it's easy for one side to just give it up over a small piece of iand and yet neither side will let go. Because letting it go would be politically disastrous.

No, in all those cases, if the government actually tried to do it, they will be toppled and replaced by a new government unwilling to give it up. Zelensky can not accept the loss of territory until the whole country accept the loss too. And merely cutting off the Western military aid won't do it. For the Ukrainian people to accept the loss of those territories the AFU will have to suffer a clear defeat and this is not likely. The AFU commanders are good enough not to make unforced errors and the Russian Army has been proven incapable of forcing the issue.

Yeah, this does suggest a long slogging war of years.

 

[Larry_L]

Ukraine keeps slogging along. Hanna Malyar officially announced liberation of Urozhaine.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1691723749903499742

Tom Cooper expounds on his views on how the war is going. He reports on missals going both ways, as well as an educated guess on the results. He also goes into depth on the disposition of units. He is not always right, but some of this can be believed. He does appear to have some pretty good sources.

Ukraine War, 14 August 2023

Hello everybody!

xxtomcooperxx.substack.com

Ukraine War, 15 August 2023

Hello everybody!

xxtomcooperxx.substack.com

And a look at what is happening in Kherson. Ukraine's tiny bridgeheads, and results of incursions. The capture of a mobic commander.

 

[koxinga]

I am puzzled that people keep thinking this is politically feasible. He can't. Modern day nationalism regards the whole country as one indivisible whole and any serious talk about giving away parts of it is traitorous. And all modern nation-states pretty much adopts this. China is not going to give up on Taiwan no matter how sensible it is to just acknowledge it as it's own country and just treat it as a valuable trade partner. No amount of money will convince the USA to sell Alaska to Russia and if Russia threatens to glass the whole USA over it the response will be bring it on, we'll glass you right back. Is the UK willing to give up on Falkland Islands? It's costing them more money than it brings.

Heck, there are a long list of border disputes where logically it's easy for one side to just give it up over a small piece of iand and yet neither side will let go. Because letting it go would be politically disastrous.

No, in all those cases, if the government actually tried to do it, they will be toppled and replaced by a new government unwilling to give it up. Zelensky can not accept the loss of territory until the whole country accept the loss too. And merely cutting off the Western military aid won't do it. For the Ukrainian people to accept the loss of those territories the AFU will have to suffer a clear defeat and this is not likely. The AFU commanders are good enough not to make unforced errors and the Russian Army has been proven incapable of forcing the issue.

Yeah, this does suggest a long slogging war of years.

Ah, that's not exactly true. There are plenty of such negotiations being done in our own backyard.

Sovereignty over Pedra Branca/Pulau Batu Puteh, Middle Rocks and South Ledge (Malaysia/Singapore)

www.icj-cij.org

Indonesia, Timor Leste agree to settle land border negotiations

Indonesia and Timor Leste concurred on completing negotiations for the two remaining land border segments -- the Noel Besi-Citrana Segment and the Bidjael ...

en.antaranews.com

Border negotiations is something as old as time. The key is to have a convergence in interests, usually because both parties see leaving the issue unresolved to be counterproductive to other matters such as trade.

https://src-h.slav.hokudai.ac.jp/publictn/eurasia_border_review/no1/04_Okano.pdf

Where things get hard is when one party has invested considerable political capital or narrative when it comes to national borders that any concession might damage their legitmancy (e.g the CCP/China over Taiwan, Putin over Ukraine)

 

[koxinga]

The problem with Zelensky making a deal with Putin, is that Putin can't be trusted. I get that there are counterclaims on both sides and neither has been shy of being elastic with the truth, but Putin is a corrupt politician in charge of a massively corrupt oligarchy.

I don't understand why this point is being repeated. Isn't that the whole point of what is known as CBMs (confidence building measures)?

Possibilities and Pitfalls of Confidence-building Measures - International Peace Institute

On September 18th, IPI’s Vienna Office organized a roundtable discussion on lessons learned from confidence-building measures (CBMs), particularly within the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE).Confidence and security building measures (CSBMs) were used extensively during...

www.ipinst.org

https://www.stimson.org/wp-content/files/CBMHandbook3-1998-fisher.pdf

If we set trust as a pre-requisite, then honestly, there will never a starting point between any warring factions. Nobody ever trusts the guy that was shooting at him yesterday to begining with.