The Russian-Ukrainian War Thread

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
Or could be deliberate mis-information ?

According to one line:

"One of the slides said 16,000 to 17,500 Russian soldiers had been killed while Ukraine had suffered as many as 71,500 troop deaths."

This doesnt sound like information the Pentagon has used before, and I seriously doubt 71K UKR KIA.
The document is allegedly doctored. The original allegedly had 35k-43k Russian KIAs and 16-17k KIA Ukrainian. But of course none of this can be confirmed.

 

Larry_L

Active Member
Volodymyr Yatsenko , A Ukrainian banker has started a contest to jump start innovation in new drones. He proposes to donate 20,000,000 hryvnias to whoever lands a drone in red square on May 9th. Even if nobody is successful it ought to tie up some of the air defense systems. One of the drone systems he has invested in will fly the route on May 9th, but will not be competing.

Quote: “I hope that this amount will be fairly divided between the manufacturer and the military operators who will successfully complete the task, and will be directed to the improvement of the UAV,” Volodymyr Yatsenko said.

 

T.C.P

Well-Known Member

In the dead of night last October a Ukrainian special forces team boarded a 40ft armoured patrol boat, taking up positions at its three heavy machineguns and Mk19 automatic grenade launcher. They were among nearly 600 elite troops scattered along the north bank of the Dnipro River, which carves through Zaporizhzhia region. The teams boarded more than 30 vessels bristling with weapons, formidable gifts from friends in the West.


Fascinating. The article is pay walled, the second comment from the linkbelow (sort by new) has the full text-

https://www.reddit.com/r/CredibleDefense/comments/12eixke
 

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member

In the dead of night last October a Ukrainian special forces team boarded a 40ft armoured patrol boat, taking up positions at its three heavy machineguns and Mk19 automatic grenade launcher. They were among nearly 600 elite troops scattered along the north bank of the Dnipro River, which carves through Zaporizhzhia region. The teams boarded more than 30 vessels bristling with weapons, formidable gifts from friends in the West.

Fascinating. The article is pay walled, the second comment from the linkbelow (sort by new) has the full text-

https://www.reddit.com/r/CredibleDefense/comments/12eixke
Russia reported this fight earlier though in much less detail, claiming to have fought off some landed forces and sunk some boats on the river. I wonder how many of Russia's claims being dismissed now will turn out to be true later.
 

vikingatespam

Well-Known Member
Russia reported this fight earlier though in much less detail, claiming to have fought off some landed forces and sunk some boats on the river. I wonder how many of Russia's claims being dismissed now will turn out to be true later.
I have a difficult time believing that anyone could think that 600 light infantry could take the plant, from across the Dnepr, and hold it. We already saw the RU propaganda video on this subject that turned out to be false.
 

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
I have a difficult time believing that anyone could think that 600 light infantry could take the plant, from across the Dnepr, and hold it. We already saw the RU propaganda video on this subject that turned out to be false.
Sorry, what Russian propaganda video? I recall a video of some barge burning on the Dnepr and hard to distinguish fires against something.
 

T.C.P

Well-Known Member
Russia reported this fight earlier though in much less detail, claiming to have fought off some landed forces and sunk some boats on the river. I wonder how many of Russia's claims being dismissed now will turn out to be true later.
Probably quite a few, but people not believing their claims, is in lot of parts their own fault. Classic case of boy who cried the wolf. I try to follow both pro UKR and pro rus media channels. And while both have a lot of BS, the BS levels in Russian channels are considerably more outlandish.

There was a paper in the past, I forgot to post it here, where researchers sued seismic activity to track explosions in Ukraine and they found more evidence of explosions then the ones reported by Ukraine.


Sadly the data is only from the time period of Feb to Nov 2022. I really want this study to be revisited from the date of feb 2023 onwards, thats when UKR state media started reporting those 85-90% interception rates. This would be a great way of showing us how truly effective the rates of interception really were.

Hopefullly a lot will be cleared up when the fog of war dissappears. If we are all alive and healthy in 2028, maybe we will be discussing it on this very forum.
 

vikingatespam

Well-Known Member
Sorry, what Russian propaganda video? I recall a video of some barge burning on the Dnepr and hard to distinguish fires against something.
This was a number of months ago - a video showing UKR bodies on the beach near the plant, supposedly all killed during a raid. There were 2 versions of the video. One that cuts out after showing the bodies, and one longer one where all the "bodies" get up. I will have to look for it.
 

vikingatespam

Well-Known Member
Here is an interesting bit from ISW:

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgr ... ril-8-2023

Former Donetsk People’s Republic (DNR) Security Minister and current Vostok Battalion commander Alexander Khodakovsky claims:

- the Russian command has decided to stop the daily issue of ammunition to areas of the front where there are no active offensive operations almost entirely.
- Khodakovsky noted that the artillery shortage on the frontline results in part from preparations for a Ukrainian counteroffensive.

(ISW interpretation) Khodakovsky’s statement indicates that the Russian command must prioritize artillery ammunition supplies rigorously due to shortages.......High demand for shells indicates that Russian forces are still heavily relying on artillery to offset key shortcomings in combat capability, including poor Russian targeting skills, insufficient ground assault capabilities, and inadequate availability of airpower in Ukraine
 

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
Russia has started striking bridges, so far in north-eastern Ukraine. A bridge in Chernigov area was struck, not destroyed, and then finished off with another strike. They also hit a bridge near Svatovo. It's possible this is part of preparations for the Ukrainian offensive, and the intent is to complicate logistics efforts by destroying bridges. It remains to be seen whether this becomes a trend or these remain one-off curiosities. Up until now Russia generally only struck bridges with tactical significance. However these are in Ukraine's rear, and the follow-up strike suggests that this was purposeful. In principle Ukraine is very vulnerable with bridges across the Dnepr being logical targets. Systematically destroying them would cause major problems. But it requires a lot more then a Kh-29 strike, as they are massive structures. These smaller bridges can be easily replaced with bridgelayers, quite a few of which Ukraine is set to receive.

 

Vivendi

Well-Known Member
Updated estimates from Norwegian military intelligence: 200,000 Russian soldiers have been killed or wounded in Ukraine. In addition they estimate that 75-80% of the 200th motorized brigade, from Murmansk, have been killed or wounded. This latter estimate I believe they have also provided previously.
 

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
Update. Feb. 22nd-23rd

Kherson-Nikolaev-Odessa.

Battle damage from Russian strikes in Kherson.


Russian 205th MRBde ATGM fires against alleged Ukrainian LP/OPs.


Russian T-90M, Kherson region.


Zaporozhye-Dnepropetrovsk.

Russian 810th MarBde in Zaporozhye. Note they have apparently received T-90Ms.


The North.

A fresh Gyurza-M armored gunboat in Kiev. Likely the 8th of it's kind launched in 2021.


Ukrainian IRIS-T positions in Kiev area.


Oskol Front.

Allegedly a Ukrainian MBT destroyed, ammo cooking off, near Svatovo.


Allegedly a Russian unmanned MT-LB VBIED being used near Svatovo.


Russian loitering munition strikes near Svatovo, one strikes an SPG, 3 strike M777s, though some of those could be decoys.


An unknown MALE UAV was downed in Kharkov regions. Some sources think it's a Forpost-RU. Others claim it's a Bayraktar. To add to the confusion it was downed in Ukraine but near the Russian border.


DLNR Front.

Ukrainian forces riding a T-90A and T-72B3mod'16 near Artemovsk/Bakhmut.


Wagner fighters inside Berkhovka. With hindsight, this was part of the slow northern envelopment of the town.


Apparently a Ukrainian armored vehicle struck, exiting Mar'inka, heading towards Georgiyevka.


Russian Marines near Ugledar assaulting a Ukrainian strong point narrowly dodge an RPG-7 at close range.


Russian 58th SpN btln (former DNR 3rd SpN) striking something with an ATGM, allegedly a Ukrainian MBT. The explosion indicates they hit something.


Former DNR 3rd MRBde, now Russian 132nd MRBde, D-20 fires.


Shelling of Donetsk continues, warning footage of corpses.


A civilian ambulance in Donetsk got hit, 4 medical personnel were killed. The strike was apparently UAV-directed, allegedly a HIMARS. If true it would be an intentional strike against a civilian ambulance, a warcrime.


Footage of the ruins of Azovstal', Mariupol'. There are currently no clear plans of what will be done with the place.


Russia.

A Russian Su-25 crashed in Belgorod region, the pilot died. Allegedly due to a malfunction.


Shebekino, Belgorod region, got hit by Ukrainian shelling. One shell landed in a playground. No doubt there were relevant military targets there...


A rail line in Crimea, near Simferopol' was damaged by parties unknown.


A Russian troop train carrying BTR-50Ps spotted. Their intended use is unclear.


Misc.

Russian VDV hitting Ukrainian positions with BMD-2 fires and mortars. There is footage that suggests an infantry assault is happening, but no confirmation. Note, this is almost certainly the woods near Kremennaya.


Russian quadcopter munition drop, location unclear.


Russia has apparently begun using unmanned VBIEDs against Ukrainian positions. This one allegedly involved an MT-LB.


Ukrainian forces using an MG-3 somewhere in Ukraine.


Assorted footage or Russian infantry, location and context unclear.


A Russian T-62M with thermals has shown up in Ukraine. Since the initial deployment of two btlns, this is the first new sighting. This was obviously inevitable, and it's likely this is the defense line along the Dnepr.


Interesting high-quality Ukrainian decoys of HIMARS and M777s. Trash scattered around the fake positions for added believability.


DAF YA-4442 truck being used as a guntruck or as SP AAA with a ZU-23-2 in Ukraine.


A column of 25 Mastiff MRAPs somewhere in Ukraine, possible Kherson region.


A Ukrainian Su-27 carrying HARMs.


Ukrainian mobilization efforts continue.


NATO/EU.

Ukraine is receiving its first Leo-2s from Poland.

 

ngatimozart

Super Moderator
Staff member
Verified Defense Pro
Four daily reports from an Ukrainian source:





From another source, an anonymous western veteran fighting with the Ukrainian Foreign Legion. This guy is ex US SF and has fought in many wars. He says that the orcs (Ukrainian name for Russians) are learning and they are being better disciplined in their war tradecraft. They are becoming harder to detect on the ground and that they appear to have begun to make life harder for Ukrainian recon teams. On example he gave was on a very recent recon mission his team (6 soldiers) almost walked into a Russian patrol (12 soldiers) and it was only the noise from one of the Russian soldier's rifle knocking something on the soldier that gave them warning. He said it was a long stalemate with everyone not moving, not making noise, before the Russian patrol eventually quietly moved off. He said that if the two patrols had clashed, their survival wasn't guaranteed because it was 2:1 in favour of the Russians. Even three months ago, the Russians weren't patrolling out from their concentrations with sentries staying real close, allowing the Ukrainians to sneak up and listen to conversations etc. Now this patrolling has made it more difficult for Ukrainian recon groups.
 

Vivendi

Well-Known Member
Since yesterday, there is a video circulating on the net of a beheading of an Ukrainian soldier, I have not seen it and will not link to it, instead I link to a comment by Julia Davis:

Julia Davis on Twitter: "https://t.co/jhwh4ObudK" / Twitter

Things are clearly not well in Russia. It's more important than ever that Europe and the US keep supporting Ukraine moving forward. In fact we should immediately escalate the support, spring and summer could become a turning point, one way or another.
 

Vivendi

Well-Known Member
Beheading the opponent is not something that started in Ukraine: Russian journalist Anna Politkovskaya documented that this also happened during the Chechen war.
Anna Politkovskaya was killed in 2006 (October 7, by pure coincidence Putin's birthday), still not clear who hired the men who killed her.

Europe/US should have taken strong actions against Russia a long time ago, in particular they should have reacted much more strongly to what happened during the Chechen war, and also what happened in Syria later on.
 

Vivendi

Well-Known Member
South Korea is lending the US 500,000 rounds of 155m ammo to allow the US some more flexibility in assisting Ukraine.


Excellent news -- Ukraine is desperately in need of more ammo, and unfortunately Europe is not quite delivering yet: Polish media claims France is blocking EU decision on financing ammunition supplies to Ukraine
 

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
Update. Feb. 24th-27th

Kherson-Nikolaev-Odessa.

Russian armored artillery truck getting hit, allegedly an Excalibur strike.


Recent Russian Shahed strikes against Ochakov. They appear to have struck a possible artillery position, suspected munition storage, and a powergrid substation.


Zaporozhye-Dnepropetrovsk.

Russian strike on Ukrainian munition storage, Zaporozhye region.


Russian airstrikes on Ukrainian military storage in Malinovka, Zaporozhye area. In addition to Avdeevka, this has been another area where Russia has begun regularly bombing Ukrainian positions. Presumably this is interdiction as Ukrainian forces bring up supplies and fresh forces for the upcoming offensive.


Russian strikes against Khortitsa island, Zaporozhye region. Allegedly Ukrainian air defense positions, though Ukraine claims it hit two non-residential infrastructure objects with no casualties.


The North.

Russian strikes in Kiev, air defenses firing.


Russian munition fragments, Kiev area.


Sumy region, captured Russian vehicles being shipped to the front, likely after repairs. We have a BTR-82A, a rare regular BTR-82, a BMP-2, BMP-3, MT-LV, Linza medical MRAP, and a crane.


Oskol Front.

Russian vehicles engage Ukrainian positions near Kremennaya.


Russia uses an UR-77 against Ukrainian positions in Kremennaya. Of course it would be wiser to make them available for mine clearing near Ugledar.


Ukrainian forces engage a Russian UAV with small arms fire but unmask their position and get hit by tank fires.


Russian VDV near Kremennaya.


Russian VDV near Kremennaya using ATVs as mobile AGS team transports.


A Russian BMPT, missing much of it's ERA, on the Oskol front.


DLNR Front.

Wagner artillery fires, Artemovsk/Bakhmut.


Ukrainian transport moving on a road out of Artemovsk/Bakhmut, the road is under Russian fires.


Wagner Su-25s operating near Artemovsk/Bakhmut.


A dam in the northern part of Artemovsk/Bakhmut got blown by Ukrainian forces, presumably to slow the Russian advance. With hindsight we know this didn't have much impact.


Aerial shots of the damage to Artemovsk/Bakhmut. The city looks about done.


Wagner fighters operating a captured YPR-765 in the southern part of Artvemovsk/Bakhmut. They also got a M2 .50 cal HMG and an M3 MMG.


Russian bomb strikes against Avdeevka. The ability to start striking Ukrainian positions from the air undoubtedly matters, but the strikes are coming in a small though steady drip and again with some hindsight aren't having the devastating effect they theoretically could.


A destroyed Dana howitzer near Avdeevka.


A destroyed Ukrainian BMP-1 near Krasnogorovka. Note this is the northern salient threatening Avdeevka with encirclement.


Panoramas of the ruins of Mar'inka. This town has been on the front lines of the fighting since '14.


Ugledar, Russian vehicles getting hit and crews bailing.


Russian fires near Ugledar hits two MBTs.


Russian TOS-1A, Ugledar area.


Aerial shot of Ugledar ruins, the town burns.


DNR former 3rd MRBde, Russian 132nd MRBde detects a Ukrainian team and calls down fire.


Ukrainian quadcopter munition drops on DNR MGB state security forces in Donetsk.

 

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
Russia.

3 Ukrainian UAVs with explosives crashed in Belgorod.


Ukrainian UAV in flight over Belgorod.


These UAVs had previously been filmed by journalists in Ukrainian hands.


Fresh Russian BMP-3s shipping with additional armor straight from the factory.


Misc.

3 Russian Krasnopol' strikes against something. They seem to cause a bit of an explosion, so presumably they hit something.


Apparently a Ukrainian T-84 getting hit by a loitering munition. The video cuts off so we can't tell if it was actually destroyed or just damaged.


Munitions cooking off on Ukrainian positions after a Russian strike.


Ukrainian Grad catches fire while launching. Possibly faulty munitions.


Ukrainian D-20 firing, with an anti-UAV net over it.


Interesting video, a Ukrainian pickup truck drives by with something burning on the side, other military vehicles blurry in the distance, and a VAB flipped over. I'm tempted to suggest this is Artemovsk/Bakhmut area, since I don't know where else there would be this kind of scenery currently. But we haven't seen any VABs in action there. If this guess is correct, then Ukraine may have committed reserves to the current meatgrinder battle, certainly a success for Russia. But this could be another location too.


Ukrainian forces are blowing a road using bundles of anti-tank mines. Presumably to slow Russian forces.


An unexploded Ukrainian FPV drone on Russian positions. The improvised nature of these weapons likely leads to more then the usual rate of duds from both sides.


Russian Msta-S operations, location and context unclear.


Russian VDV FPV drone team. Note this is probably near Kremennaya, but we can't be sure.


A Russian FPV drone and a crate of payloads for it, OG-7V.


Ukrainian forces show off an improvised back-pack flamethrower set up.


An interesting video of a 4-tube battery of Ukrainian Nona-BMP hybrids, allegedly using the PRP chassis. The original variant, the 2S17 from the '80s, was based on the BRM-1K. Reportedly Ukraine started producing these in 2021. Of course producing means converting, since Ukraine doesn't have production of Nona turrets or BMP chassis. Presumably new mortars could be manufactured.


Ukrainian mobilization efforts continue.


Ukrainian delivery service Nova Poshta delivering armored vehicles inside civilian trucks, likely across the western border.


NATO/EU.

Ukrainian service members doing driver training on Challenger 2s in the UK.


Ukraine is reportedly getting from Germany 5 more Bergenpanzer-2 and 6 more Biber bridgelayers.


Sources indicate Ukraine may have received Grad munitions through Serbia. They were allegedly sourced by a Canadian company through Turkey into Slovakia and then Ukraine.

 

ngatimozart

Super Moderator
Staff member
Verified Defense Pro
Since yesterday, there is a video circulating on the net of a beheading of an Ukrainian soldier, I have not seen it and will not link to it, instead I link to a comment by Julia Davis:

Julia Davis on Twitter: "https://t.co/jhwh4ObudK" / Twitter

Things are clearly not well in Russia. It's more important than ever that Europe and the US keep supporting Ukraine moving forward. In fact we should immediately escalate the support, spring and summer could become a turning point, one way or another.
The alleged beheading, if true, is a war crime because of the victim being an Ukrainian POW. If true, this speaks to the insipid barbarity of an individual or unit, but since it's the first reported case during this war, I would hesitate to tarnish the whole of the Russian military with such a broad brush. TBH they don't need help burnishing their war crimes reputation; Bucha et al., does that for them.

A retired UK General's take on it.

In western culture, beheading is seen as a most despicable act, but that's mostly in the last 200 - 300 years because the English were partial to beheadings and other more despicable methods of execution. Henry VIII ordered, IIRC, two of his wives heads parted company from their body. Hanging, drawing, and quartering was another execution method. The French use the guillotine for executions up until 1977. In fact the renown British actor Christopher Lee witnessed the last public guillotine execution in France prior to WW2. Burning at the stake was another favoured form of execution and that is a barbaric method. It was used in Europe and North America on religious grounds.

A BBC article on the two ex UK Sea King helicopters operated by Ukraine. The history of one is quite interesting because it was involved in the Falklands War.

Ukrainians training on UK AS-90 SPH.

Comment on leak allegations that NATO personnel are on the round in Ukraine. TBH it wouldn't surprise me that NATO SF personnel are in Ukraine advising and training Ukrainian forces.
 

ngatimozart

Super Moderator
Staff member
Verified Defense Pro
There have been various reports of WW2 weapons being used by both sides in the war. Some are shown in this video.

Plus some WW1 weapons that were still in use last year, with some featuring in the current Russo-Ukraine war.

A weapon will still kill your enemy, regardless of its age. The Maxim gun is an ideal HMG for use in defensive warfare because it's reliable and the water jacket is ideal for cooling the barrel, enabling long periods of sustained fire. The Mosin Nagant bolt rifle is still a good snipers weapon. The Lee Enfield No 3 SMLE, would even be more effective the the Mosin Nagant, but only just.
 
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