ADF General discussion thread

alexsa

alexsa

Super Moderator
Staff member
Verified Defense Pro
Redlands18 said:
Lockheed Martin hopes to deliver more F-35s to Australia (msn.com)
Ignore the F-35 bit, the important info is, from Marles today, the DSR will be released in April.
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Oh joy. Given the current rampant speculation going this is going to muddy the waters even more noting the DSR has been provided to government and I expect that the DefMIN was well aware of the the contents before that event.

I expect there is a good reason for it but sticking to time tables (which both sides of politics consistently fail to do) would provide some confidence in current projects.
 
Takao

Takao

The Bunker Group
@buffy9 nails it here

Long range air defence / anti-ballistic missile defence is the least effective way of spending government dollars. Robodebt 2.0 would be better. Replacing all the trash cans in Canberra with orange ones would be better. Hell, just stacking a pile of money in a field and setting it on fire is a better option.

It is phenomenally complex, and honestly, the missile is the easy part. When you play with the orbital mechanics and likely incoming flights, there are sheer impracticalities. For instance, depending on your threat/missile/sensor match up, your cueing sensor (to defend Darwin) has to be located in the middle of the SCS. Going out on a limb - but if it's Beijing's PLA-RF shooting at us, it's unlikely they'll let us park something there. And what are we defending? Against a conventional missile - honestly, what does it matter? A Hwasong-12 carries a 650 kg warhead - what will that destroy? A city block? It's harsh, but 650kg of HE is meaningless.

If it's nukes you are talking, that's a whole different ballgame. Nuclear theory, diplomacy and the like is far beyond this forum. Yes, a nuke hitting an Australian city would be horrific. But (a) even the PLA-RF have limited numbers of nukes, how likely is one being thrown against Australia? and (b), the international fallout would end the shooting nation. I'd argue the likelihood of a nuke being thrown our way is so low that we can continue to rely on the ambiguous coverage of the US.
 
O

old faithful

The Bunker Group
Verified Defense Pro
Takao said:
@buffy9 nails it here

Long range air defence / anti-ballistic missile defence is the least effective way of spending government dollars. Robodebt 2.0 would be better. Replacing all the trash cans in Canberra with orange ones would be better. Hell, just stacking a pile of money in a field and setting it on fire is a better option.

It is phenomenally complex, and honestly, the missile is the easy part. When you play with the orbital mechanics and likely incoming flights, there are sheer impracticalities. For instance, depending on your threat/missile/sensor match up, your cueing sensor (to defend Darwin) has to be located in the middle of the SCS. Going out on a limb - but if it's Beijing's PLA-RF shooting at us, it's unlikely they'll let us park something there. And what are we defending? Against a conventional missile - honestly, what does it matter? A Hwasong-12 carries a 650 kg warhead - what will that destroy? A city block? It's harsh, but 650kg of HE is meaningless.

If it's nukes you are talking, that's a whole different ballgame. Nuclear theory, diplomacy and the like is far beyond this forum. Yes, a nuke hitting an Australian city would be horrific. But (a) even the PLA-RF have limited numbers of nukes, how likely is one being thrown against Australia? and (b), the international fallout would end the shooting nation. I'd argue the likelihood of a nuke being thrown our way is so low that we can continue to rely on the ambiguous coverage of the US.
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Easter of Peace 92 was interesting operation.
We were deployed to Nurrunga in the SA desert, not far from Woomera.
Bus loads of protesters were shipping in from Adelaide, with the goal of infiltrating the base.
Our intell was pretty good.....actually, it was amazing. ASIO had a member in the protesters "war" committee, so we knew what was going to happen before the main body of protesters did....anyway, while at the base, we got a run down on what it did, and tour of "some " of it.
It basically was radar receiving dishes, but the computers decipher the info from satellites.
It detected any missile launch, anywhere on earth, and predicated the target with in seconds of the launch. Don't know how of course, but that's what we were told it did. It's now closed as another base can do exactly the same thing.....
 
ngatimozart

ngatimozart

Super Moderator
Staff member
Verified Defense Pro
Redlands18 said:
HMAS Canberra deployed to Vanuatu in wake of cyclones (msn.com)
HMAS Canberra has been dispatched to Vanuatu to aid the locals, after they got hit twice by Cyclones in 5 days. She is carrying 3 Chinooks and a compliment of LCMs.
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And a deep 6.9 magnitude earthquake in between the cyclones. The RNZAF have a Hercules loaded up and on the way. Don't know if the NZG is going to deploy Canterbury yet.
old faithful said:
Easter of Peace 92 was interesting operation.
We were deployed to Nurrunga in the SA desert, not far from Woomera.
Bus loads of protesters were shipping in from Adelaide, with the goal of infiltrating the base.
Our intell was pretty good.....actually, it was amazing. ASIO had a member in the protesters "war" committee, so we knew what was going to happen before the main body of protesters did....anyway, while at the base, we got a run down on what it did, and tour of "some " of it.
It basically was radar receiving dishes, but the computers decipher the info from satellites.
It detected any missile launch, anywhere on earth, and predicated the target with in seconds of the launch. Don't know how of course, but that's what we were told it did. It's now closed as another base can do exactly the same thing.....
Click to expand...
Ah protestors. Had a run in or two with the 1970s left wing variety. There were various nefarious unapproved methods for enticing them onto defence land so that they could be arrested for trespassing on defence land. :D Peaceful they were not.
 
FormerDirtDart

FormerDirtDart

Well-Known Member
Reportedly the official plan
  • The Plan : Train, Operate, Build
  • Workers to US & UK
  • Sailors embedded with US &RN sub forces
  • Submarine rotational force west of up to 4 USN & 1 RN boats to Perth
  • Acquisition of 3 Virginia-clas subs (used & new) option for additional subs if serious delay in SSN(R) production
  • Australian proportional investment in US & UK production capability
  • Producton/Acquisition of SSN(R) "SSN AUKUS" with US systems first by UK in late 2030s the AUS in 2040s

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1635371508200804353
 
FormerDirtDart

FormerDirtDart

Well-Known Member
FormerDirtDart said:
Reportedly the official plan
  • The Plan : Train, Operate, Build
  • Workers to US & UK
  • Sailors embedded with US &RN sub forces
  • Submarine rotational force west of up to 4 USN & 1 RN boats to Perth
  • Acquisition of 3 Virginia-clas subs (used & new) option for additional subs if serious delay in SSN(R) production
  • Australian proportional investment in US & UK production capability
  • Producton/Acquisition of SSN(R) "SSN AUKUS" with US systems first by UK in late 2030s the AUS in 2040s

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1635371508200804353
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www.gov.uk

British-led design chosen for AUKUS submarine project

The first generation of AUKUS nuclear submarines will be built in the UK and Australia, based on the UK’s world-leading submarine design.
www.gov.uk www.gov.uk
 
V

Volkodav

The Bunker Group
Verified Defense Pro
TScott said:
Mods unlock the RAN thread, the media were right, you were wrong...........



https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1635385829173633024
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Has it actually crossed your mind that those in the know were specifically barred from speculating or commenting?

That maybe all the carry on and speculation has gotten to be incredibly annoying for many members?

Or that people affected by this directly were waiting for the official announcement and wanted to discuss other things in the interim?
 
T

TScott

Member
Volkodav said:
Has it actually crossed your mind that those in the know were specifically barred from speculating or commenting?

That maybe all the carry on and speculation has gotten to be incredibly annoying for many members?

Or that people affected by this directly were waiting for the official announcement and wanted to discuss other things in the interim?
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The ones refraining from comment aren't the ones I am referring to.

I'm sure the speculation has gotten annoying for some members, but there were also plenty of members that wished to continue the discussion. This is a discussion forum. Not many posts I read were out of line, even if they do annoy some defence pro's personal opinions.

The recent lock was following reports from 3 of the largest publications on the planet, which all proved to be correct.

This also dates back years, not weeks. The RAN threads are the most locked thread on this website, with the vast majority of those locks as a result of discussions of "fantasy" topics like an Australia sovereign nuclear submarine industry............
 
M

Morgo

Well-Known Member
TScott said:
The ones refraining from comment aren't the ones I am referring to.

I'm sure the speculation has gotten annoying for some members, but there were also plenty of members that wished to continue the discussion. This is a discussion forum. Not many posts I read were out of line, even if they do annoy some defence pro's personal opinions.

The recent lock was following reports from 3 of the largest publications on the planet, which all proved to be correct.

This also dates back years, not weeks. The RAN threads are the most locked thread on this website, with the vast majority of those locks as a result of discussions of "fantasy" topics like an Australia sovereign nuclear submarine industry............
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Just relax mate. It really doesn't matter.

And for the record, I'm still not sure who you're saying is wrong about what?
 
H

hauritz

Well-Known Member
Having read the press release three words worry me. "Pending Congressional approval"

Without congressional approval Australia may still find itself without Nuclear submarines until the 2040s. It also sounds like only a few of the Collins class subs will receive a LOTE so we better hope that any future US administration will still be amenable to providing 3 to 5 Virginias.
 
buffy9

buffy9

Well-Known Member
hauritz said:
Having read the press release three words worry me. "Pending Congressional approval"

Without congressional approval Australia may still find itself without Nuclear submarines until the 2040s. It also sounds like only a few of the Collins class subs will receive a LOTE so we better hope that any future US administration will still be amenable to providing 3 to 5 Virginias.
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The DSR will likely expand upon things and provide some clarity. Dutton previously indicated, in his original statement regarding two Virginia-class subs, that the Collins would not be suitable past 2035. How true this is in reality is arguable, but the case could be made to direct LOTE efforts to the Virginia-class in order to more effectively fill the capability gap. That, and it serves as a bridge between Collins and the SSNR-type.

On Congress, I don't foresee it being an enormous obstacle. Senators have come out in support of AUKUS, while China (and hopefully Australia an ally) appear to be a bipartisan issue. You can never be too sure though...
 
R

Redlands18

Well-Known Member
hauritz said:
Having read the press release three words worry me. "Pending Congressional approval"

Without congressional approval Australia may still find itself without Nuclear submarines until the 2040s. It also sounds like only a few of the Collins class subs will receive a LOTE so we better hope that any future US administration will still be amenable to providing 3 to 5 Virginias.
Click to expand...
Congressional approval was always needed, we knew that. Morrison talked to both House Leaders during a visit to Washington in late 2021, the White House must be quite confidant of getting that approval and generally overall the talk has been positive from both sides.
 
V

Volkodav

The Bunker Group
Verified Defense Pro
buffy9 said:
The DSR will likely expand upon things and provide some clarity. Dutton previously indicated, in his original statement regarding two Virginia-class subs, that the Collins would not be suitable past 2035. How true this is in reality is arguable, but the case could be made to direct LOTE efforts to the Virginia-class in order to more effectively fill the capability gap. That, and it serves as a bridge between Collins and the SSNR-type.

On Congress, I don't foresee it being an enormous obstacle. Senators have come out in support of AUKUS, while China (and hopefully Australia an ally) appear to be a bipartisan issue. You can never be too sure though...
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The biggest impediment to US expansion of production rates is skilled labour, or more to the point, their capacity to train a new generation of US workers, following over two decades of contraction.

This is not just in submarine related trades but also in the skill sets required to look after and expand the infrastructure required for the increased work.

Australia's recent mining construction boom, plus ship building projects, combined with the slowdown due to a number of factors over the last decade and a bit, means we have talented, mid career people we can send to the US to support them growing a new generation of trades and technical people.
 
ngatimozart

ngatimozart

Super Moderator
Staff member
Verified Defense Pro
TScott said:
The ones refraining from comment aren't the ones I am referring to.

I'm sure the speculation has gotten annoying for some members, but there were also plenty of members that wished to continue the discussion. This is a discussion forum. Not many posts I read were out of line, even if they do annoy some defence pro's personal opinions.

The recent lock was following reports from 3 of the largest publications on the planet, which all proved to be correct.

This also dates back years, not weeks. The RAN threads are the most locked thread on this website, with the vast majority of those locks as a result of discussions of "fantasy" topics like an Australia sovereign nuclear submarine industry............
Click to expand...
We don't tolerate childish posts. There is a reason why we wait for government confirmation on a capability as important as this. Media reports aren't an official government response. Grow up.

FYI the reasons that the RAN thread is locked so many times is because of posters like yourself. This is a forum specifically designed for defence professionals and when DEFPROs on here start complaining about posting behaviour, the Moderators take note. We have had many complaints about the posting standard of the RAN Thread lately. We may reopen the thread at a time of our choosing and we have the ability to restrict those who can post on individual threads.
 
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