The Russian-Ukrainian War Thread

hauritz

Well-Known Member
A question might be on what armoured vehicles will be available to these troops ,would these troops have fifty year old tanks and ifv,s to transport and lead ? depending on the source you read Russia has either deployed nearly all of this resource in Ukraine with significant losses or has many thousands more in storage , that's without going into resourcing from Iran and North Korea everything from ballistic vests drones and artillery shells for present operations ,I can't imagine North Korea selling all of its artillery shells to Russia and relying on its nuclear capabilities
Russia scrambles to increase weapons production for Ukraine war | Russia-Ukraine war News | Al Jazeera
Certainly the rhetoric has ramped up
Russia Boosts Production Of Weapons For 'Most Powerful Means Of Destruction': Medvedev (ibtimes.com.au)
Increasing weapons production is no doubt one of Russia’s biggest priorities but will be especially tough with a ruined economy, lack of access to vital overseas components and perhaps even shortages of trained workers.
The Russians will also need to decide whether they use their limited resources to build military equipment to counter the west, submarines for example, or focus on what is needed for their war with Ukraine.
 

ngatimozart

Super Moderator
Staff member
Verified Defense Pro
This article has some interesting claims on how production was increased but still not able to make up for losses of materials or supply newly mobilized recruits
Russia Revealed the Pace of Accelerating the Weapons Production For 2022 | Defense Express (defence-ua.com)
That's a Ukrainian publication and so it's going to be somewhat biased, isn't it? I would treat that source with a serious amount of caution.

It would be far better if you were to have found corroborating evidence from multiple non Ukrainian sources.
Increasing weapons production is no doubt one of Russia’s biggest priorities but will be especially tough with a ruined economy, lack of access to vital overseas components and perhaps even shortages of trained workers.
The Russians will also need to decide whether they use their limited resources to build military equipment to counter the west, submarines for example, or focus on what is needed for their war with Ukraine.
As @Ananda keeps saying the Russian economy may not be as ruined as western media claim. It could also be supplied with the necessary technology by others such as Iran, North Korea and even the PRC. For example there is no way of independently checking what crosses the PRC - Russian border or the North Korean - Russian Border. The PRC, Iran, and North Korea are masters at acquiring banned / sensitive western technology. Russia is reportedly supplying Iran with 24 Su-35 fighters and it is wanting to acquire Iranian SRBM. It has also provided Iran with other defence equipment. Russian Su-35s Could Soon Be Delivered To Iran, Pilots Trained Last Spring So don't easily discount the Russian ability to rearm.
 

Ananda

The Bunker Group
The PRC, Iran, and North Korea are masters at acquiring banned / sensitive western technology.
Agreed @ngatimozart Chinese forums, blogs and online media talk on China semiconductors supply to Russia. The way I take it, officially no supply to Russia, however it is not closed the gray area. Russian buyers can theoritically drive to China and procured the semiconductor from Chinese large distributors.

This is also need to contemplate that most military targeting equipment for precision warfare can work with semiconductors from a decade ago tech. The western media talk on prohibition of 26nm , 12nm, or 6nm chips. However those chips in actuality taking by smartphone producers, rather by MIC. Our smartphones used better chips then what many military specs equipments does.

So if they are using 'similar' chips from Washing Machines or Refrigerators, because those household electronics appliances are using tech develop in last decade. Similar thing with many precision guidance system.

The latest ones that being developed by DARPA for example, are using latest chips. However mostly will come to operation perhaps by middle of this decade. In the meantime the smartphones or computers in Tesla or other premium cars by that time already using better chips tech (then what DARPA or MIC plan to introduce). Seems current commercial consumption smartphones, laptops, and cars multimedia actually outpace what most MIC developed. It used not to be like that, but current consumers tech development seems somehow outpaces Military Specs electronics (on semiconductors speed).

Thus, it is not difficult I believe for Russian to find semiconductors in developing their guidance systems for missiles or smart munitions for this war. They don't have to use latest chips or latest tech, they can used semiconductors that being left behind by current smartphones or laptops commercials sectors productions. That's actually still a lot availability in the market. Not all semiconductors foundries already move to 26nm bellow semiconductors.


This is video on latest LADA car. Something that come out from Russian production line after embargoes. It is simple car, which basically having tech from cars below 2014 in other market. This car will have CPU that are equivalent on CPU of cars from that era. Thus if they (Russian) "still" can source that for their consumers production, why can't they done it for their MIC production ?

So yes as ngati put, don't underestimate their MIC capabilities yet.
 
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jref

Member
On the topic of exports amids an all out war:

Maybe members with more tech knowledge can share some info on how complex S-400 is and whether or not parts of it would be subject to import ban.
 

seaspear

Well-Known Member
That's a Ukrainian publication and so it's going to be somewhat biased, isn't it? I would treat that source with a serious amount of caution.

It would be far better if you were to have found corroborating evidence from multiple non Ukrainian sources.

As @Ananda keeps saying the Russian economy may not be as ruined as western media claim. It could also be supplied with the necessary technology by others such as Iran, North Korea and even the PRC. For example there is no way of independently checking what crosses the PRC - Russian border or the North Korean - Russian Border. The PRC, Iran, and North Korea are masters at acquiring banned / sensitive western technology. Russia is reportedly supplying Iran with 24 Su-35 fighters and it is wanting to acquire Iranian SRBM. It has also provided Iran with other defence equipment. Russian Su-35s Could Soon Be Delivered To Iran, Pilots Trained Last Spring So don't easily discount the Russian ability to rearm.
There is obviously some difficulty finding a source that can be considered without bias the effectiveness of Russia's wartime production
Russia Increases Defense Spending by 20% as it Struggles to Replace Weapons (newsweek.com)
Russia prepares to mobilise economy for longer war in Ukraine | Financial Times (ft.com)
Putin urges Russian military to increase production of weapons (postsen.com)
 

hauritz

Well-Known Member
That's a Ukrainian publication and so it's going to be somewhat biased, isn't it? I would treat that source with a serious amount of caution.

It would be far better if you were to have found corroborating evidence from multiple non Ukrainian sources.

As @Ananda keeps saying the Russian economy may not be as ruined as western media claim. It could also be supplied with the necessary technology by others such as Iran, North Korea and even the PRC. For example there is no way of independently checking what crosses the PRC - Russian border or the North Korean - Russian Border. The PRC, Iran, and North Korea are masters at acquiring banned / sensitive western technology. Russia is reportedly supplying Iran with 24 Su-35 fighters and it is wanting to acquire Iranian SRBM. It has also provided Iran with other defence equipment. Russian Su-35s Could Soon Be Delivered To Iran, Pilots Trained Last Spring So don't easily discount the Russian ability to rearm.
Russia's economy hasn't collapsed as quickly as some would have wished but I think the relentless pressure of sanctions and falling oil prices are starting to bite. Falling oil and gas prices will have already pretty much destroyed Russia's trade surplus which is how Putin is financing this war. Without that surplus the Russian economy will just go further and further into debt.

I can't see those oil and gas prices bouncing back anytime soon and even if they do I think the West would be wary about relying on Russia for the preponderance of its energy needs anyway.
 
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ngatimozart

Super Moderator
Staff member
Verified Defense Pro
On the topic of exports amids an all out war:

Maybe members with more tech knowledge can share some info on how complex S-400 is and whether or not parts of it would be subject to import ban.
It's reputed to be one of the best air defence systems available and treated with an immense amount of caution. The S-300 is deadly enough and the Russians are introducing the S-500 into service. In what context do you mean import ban? If it was into for example the EU, every component of it is banned because it's Russian. End of story.
Russia's economy hasn't collapsed as quickly as some would have wished but I think the relentless pressure of sanctions and falling oil prices are starting to bite. Falling oil and gas prices will have already pretty much destroyed Russia's trade surplus which is how Putin is financing this war. Without that surplus the Russian economy will just go further and further into debt.

I can't see those oil and gas prices bouncing back anytime soon and even if they do I think the West would be wary about relying on Russia for the preponderance of its energy needs anyway.
I am not talking about the Russian economy. It's the reliability of the sources that are what I am pointing out. Don't try to dissemble.

WRT Russian economy C/REF @Ananda post here and mine here.
Yes I understand that but the point is that oth Ukrainian and Russian sources are immediately suspect because they are the combatants in this war and both have ample reasons to lie, spread false info, and other propaganda activities; as well as their OPSEC concerns too.
 

jref

Member
It's reputed to be one of the best air defence systems available and treated with an immense amount of caution. The S-300 is deadly enough and the Russians are introducing the S-500 into service. In what context do you mean import ban? If it was into for example the EU, every component of it is banned because it's Russian. End of story.
My wording might have been off. To further clarify, it would be interesting to know which if any components used in production of S-* series are sourced abroad but that Russia might have a hard time obtaining due to sanctions.
 

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
Russia is facing an operational crisis at Kremennaya. Ukrainian forces are attacking towards Shipilovka. Despite heavy casualties and at least one failed attack, Ukrainian forces have gained ground and if they can continue, russia may be forced to withdraw from Kremennaya under threat of operational encirclement.

EDIT: This is the Oskol front south of Kupyansk. This comes after some limited Russian gains near Kupyansk itself.
 

Big_Zucchini

Well-Known Member
On the topic of exports amids an all out war:

Maybe members with more tech knowledge can share some info on how complex S-400 is and whether or not parts of it would be subject to import ban.
S-400, like many other Soviet/Russian AD systems, is built in a decentralized architecture. This means that while it is technically capable of cooperative defense, it is built to be independent as a system.
A western centralized architecture takes some of the components that are integral to the S-400, out of the air defense unit.
For example a David's Sling, roughly equivalent to S-400 in mission set, directs missiles via an EL/M-2084 radar that is integral to it, but is fed early warning data from an external Green Pine radar which also feeds other combat elements.
Each S-400 unit has a C2, but the David's Sling is controlled via a C2 that simultaneously controls other systems of longer and shorter ranges.

On a components level, the S-400 is technologically behind what the west could offer at the time of its making. However, it does sort of brute-force compensate for some deficiencies. If they can't minuaturize, they add more hardware.

In the end, the missiles will fly far, the radar will detect far, and against India's regional opponents, it will do quite well. All that's left is the quality control which some say is very low, but it is objectively hard to quantify with so many unknowns.
For India, a vast country with potential threats all around, the ability to just plug in an AD battery that will close hundreds of km of airspace in every direction must be quite appealling.

As for the contract, again too many unknowns.
Russia cancelling the contract and keeping the systems to itself is realistic, and not unheard of, right?
Russia giving India only the metals, and leaving India to source advanced western chips to fill in the blanks is also a realistic possibility.
And of course anything in between is equally plausible.
 

ngatimozart

Super Moderator
Staff member
Verified Defense Pro

seaspear

Well-Known Member
There are claims that ammunition was stored in the basement of the building and other munitions stored openly next to the building contributing to the devastation from pro-Russian bloggers
 

Terran

Well-Known Member
Even 63 KIA in a single incident is unusual. If the RU admit to that, its probably worse.
If this was a peace time Army, and it was attacked in barracks these numbers would fit. Example the Beruit barracks bombing that killed about 300. A peacekeeping force in a perceived low risk area.
However in a warzone this shouldn’t happen. My only rationale for how this could happen is thatthe Russian military commander somehow got it into his head that he was beyond rocket artillery range.
Or for some reason felt the position was not a target, either by assumption of the Ukrainian forces not being on the attack, assumption of the facilities being on a no attack list.
 

KipPotapych

Well-Known Member
Ukraine’s claim is 400 killed and 300 wounded. That is a lot of people and highly unlikely. The Russian claim of 63 is more believable. Probably ~100 more wounded. 700 makes zero sense even if an ammunition dump took a hit.
 

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
Ukraine’s claim is 400 killed and 300 wounded. That is a lot of people and highly unlikely. The Russian claim of 63 is more believable. Probably ~100 more wounded. 700 makes zero sense even if an ammunition dump took a hit.
Unless a full btln was in one location, with support assets. Russia has caused similar numbers of casualties hitting Ukrainian forces in garrison. It took a while for Ukraine to learn the lesson and disperse forces. It's entirely possible that a mobilized Russian reservist officer positioned an entire btln in one large structure, far from the front line, thinking himself safe. It's really hard to be certain of anything, but the numbers are not small. Even if we're looking at 63 KIA and 4:1 WIAs, that's over 300 casualties total. I suspect 300 casualties is the bottom figure, and 700 the upper with reality somewhere in between.
 
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