The Russian-Ukrainian War Thread

Feanor · Oct 18, 2022

Everyone I've moved the discussion regarding nuclear confrontation between Russia and the west to the appropriate thread. This thread is for discussing the ongoing war and things directly pertaining to it. General discussion of relations between Russia and the west belong in that thread.

SP_viewer · Oct 18, 2022

"History doesn't repeat, but it sure as hell rhymes"

Take a look at this video, about 1:00 minute in:

Feanor · Oct 18, 2022

Russian strikes against Ukrainian energy infrastructure are continuing. This is coupled with a distinct Russian attempt at taking out Ukrainian air defenses and aircraft. Ukraine has lost several aircraft and we have repeated attempts (though not always successful) to strike Ukrainian SAMs. It appears that this is a Russian strategy after all and not just retaliation for the bridge attack. In addition to this, Russia's shopping spree in Iran continues, as we see more Iranian deliveries take place and even some instances of Russian cargo planes flying to Iran to assist. It's likely we're going to see increased numbers of Russian UCAVs in play. Even the Orion-S has resurfaced, with footage of it taking out a tank in Zaporozhye area showing up. It remains to be seen whether this can have the desirved effect now, as really this should have been executed from 1 day onwards. There are still no reports of systematic strikes against bridges or rail infrastructure, which is a likely next step. The big open question is whether Russian SEAD/DEAD efforts can yield sufficient results to allow Russia to step up ordinary airstrikes, or if hugging the ground to lob missiles remains the only viable option.

In my opinion this effort represents a bigger threat to Ukraine then anything else currently going on in this war. Realistically this could change the nature of the conflict and allow Russia to fully bring their airpower to bear while drastically degrading the ability of Ukraine to move troops by rail or to continue running supply and repair facilities in the rear. If it translates into Russian air superiority it could even allow for drastically improved situation awareness through recon flights and significant gains CAS and interdiction strikes. Of course there is a big "if" here. Russian strikes have been most effective against stationary targets due to issues with Russian C4ISR. Significant improvements are needed if this is to translate into an effective SEAD/DEAD campaign, and striking 3-5 SAM positions and downing a handful of aircraft doesn't do that. On the flip side if this effort continues long enough, and with munitions as relatively cheap as the Shahed-136 being readily available while more advanced munitions (like Russia's own Lancet or the Kh-59MK2) being reserved for the actual SEAD/DEAD strikes, this could be done. It would slower and less complete then if a western airforce was doing this, but it could give similar results against the already significantly damaged Ukrainian Air Force and air defense grid. It remains to be seen how this turns out but I suspect this has more to do with the ultimate outcome of this war then Russia's mobilization effort or even western aid to Ukraine.

T.C.P · Oct 18, 2022

Feanor said:
Russian strikes against Ukrainian energy infrastructure are continuing. This is coupled with a distinct Russian attempt at taking out Ukrainian air defenses and aircraft. Ukraine has lost several aircraft and we have repeated attempts (though not always successful) to strike Ukrainian SAMs. It appears that this is a Russian strategy after all and not just retaliation for the bridge attack. In addition to this, Russia's shopping spree in Iran continues, as we see more Iranian deliveries take place and even some instances of Russian cargo planes flying to Iran to assist. It's likely we're going to see increased numbers of Russian UCAVs in play. Even the Orion-S has resurfaced, with footage of it taking out a tank in Zaporozhye area showing up. It remains to be seen whether this can have the desirved effect now, as really this should have been executed from 1 day onwards. There are still no reports of systematic strikes against bridges or rail infrastructure, which is a likely next step. The big open question is whether Russian SEAD/DEAD efforts can yield sufficient results to allow Russia to step up ordinary airstrikes, or if hugging the ground to lob missiles remains the only viable option.

In my opinion this effort represents a bigger threat to Ukraine then anything else currently going on in this war. Realistically this could change the nature of the conflict and allow Russia to fully bring their airpower to bear while drastically degrading the ability of Ukraine to move troops by rail or to continue running supply and repair facilities in the rear. If it translates into Russian air superiority it could even allow for drastically improved situation awareness through recon flights and significant gains CAS and interdiction strikes. Of course there is a big "if" here. Russian strikes have been most effective against stationary targets due to issues with Russian C4ISR. Significant improvements are needed if this is to translate into an effective SEAD/DEAD campaign, and striking 3-5 SAM positions and downing a handful of aircraft doesn't do that. On the flip side if this effort continues long enough, and with munitions as relatively cheap as the Shahed-136 being readily available while more advanced munitions (like Russia's own Lancet or the Kh-59MK2) being reserved for the actual SEAD/DEAD strikes, this could be done. It would slower and less complete then if a western airforce was doing this, but it could give similar results against the already significantly damaged Ukrainian Air Force and air defense grid. It remains to be seen how this turns out but I suspect this has more to do with the ultimate outcome of this war then Russia's mobilization effort or even western aid to Ukraine.

Drones and Loitering munitions

Saw 4 lancet videos recently targetting Ukrainian AD networks. One was on a fake Buk system made of wood. One was a susccessful strike againt 2 S-300 TELS. One a S-300 TEL (that was either fake or empty) and one today striking a Ukrainain 36D6-M1 radar. you mentioned in your reply earlier on this thread that Russia got a new injection of lancets, and that tracks.

But the fact that Russia has been releasing videos of stirkes against the fake systems, kind of indicates that these are the only strikes they have made so far, otherwise why release the unsuccesful ones. Lancet looks like a real threat regardless, much more mobile and capable of hitting critical targets as opposed Shahed, which 90% of the time hits stationary infra.

What happened to the Kubs though, been a while since I have seen any. Have they been competely supplanted by the Lancets and Iranian drones?
On a different forum, some posted alleged IRGC commanders saying that they have decided not to sell Russia Arashes as they dont want the west to have access to the new Arash tech (lol, how times change)

Regarding Russian Missiles

1.) Also do you see any Russian explanation on the subpar performance of the Iskanders? leading up tot he war, Iskanders seemed to be an effective modern missile, but their performance has been disappointing( from an an armmchair novice such as myself's perspective). The Russian purchase of Iranian missiles, seem to show that they are aware of their deficiency in short range missiles.

2.) S-300s as surface-surface missiles- Is Russia really using older obsolete Missiles for these tasks, that seems like avery logical thing to do, or are they wasting newer(relatively) missiles for such inefficient purposes as well?

Feanor · Oct 18, 2022

T.C.P said:
Drones and Loitering munitions

Saw 4 lancet videos recently targetting Ukrainian AD networks. One was on a fake Buk system made of wood. One was a susccessful strike againt 2 S-300 TELS. One a S-300 TEL (that was either fake or empty) and one today striking a Ukrainain 36D6-M1 radar. you mentioned in your reply earlier on this thread that Russia got a new injection of lancets, and that tracks.

But the fact that Russia has been releasing videos of stirkes against the fake systems, kind of indicates that these are the only strikes they have made so far, otherwise why release the unsuccesful ones. Lancet looks like a real threat regardless, much more mobile and capable of hitting critical targets as opposed Shahed, which 90% of the time hits stationary infra.

What happened to the Kubs though, been a while since I have seen any. Have they been competely supplanted by the Lancets and Iranian drones?
On a different forum, some posted alleged IRGC commanders saying that they have decided not to sell Russia Arashes as they dont want the west to have access to the new Arash tech (lol, how times change)

Not sure what happened to the Kub. I did see the fake strikes against an S-300 TEL and Buk mockup. There's also an Osa SAM getting taken out in another video. This is clearly a directed effort that isn't always successful.

EDIT: The strikes against the fake S-300 TEL. Not the fake strikes. The strikes are real.

Regarding Russian Missiles

Click to expand...

1.) Also do you see any Russian explanation on the subpar performance of the Iskanders? leading up tot he war, Iskanders seemed to be an effective modern missile, but their performance has been disappointing( from an an armmchair novice such as myself's perspective). The Russian purchase of Iranian missiles, seem to show that they are aware of their deficiency in short range missiles.

2.) S-300s as surface-surface missiles- Is Russia really using older obsolete Missiles for these tasks, that seems like avery logical thing to do, or are they wasting newer(relatively) missiles for such inefficient purposes as well?

I've seen claims of subpar performance by the Iskander but nothing substantive. I've so far reserved judgement pending some post-war BDA. Do you have something specific on their subpar performance?

I haven't seen any confirmation of S-300 surface to surface usage. You could try to infer that the S-300 that fell on a house in Nikolaev was being used in that manner but the likelier answer is that it was an air defense missile that was fired. Do you have anything to confirm this?

EDIT: There's noises coming out from the Russian side that suggest they're aware of and preparing for a major Ukrainian attack on Kherson including a strike against the Novo-Kahovskaya dam with the intent of flooding large areas. It's completely unclear if this is in any way verified now, time will show us whether there's any truth to this.

Перед битвой за Херсон.

Генерал Суровикин о ходе СВО на Украине. Обстановка в зоне СВО напряженная. Мы с украинцами один народ и желаем, чтобы Украина была независима от Запада и НАТО, была в дружественных отношениях с Россией. Противник не оставляет попыток атаковать позиции ВС РФ, прежде всего, это Купянское,…

colonelcassad.livejournal.com

Señor Pomidor · Oct 18, 2022

There are rumors in twitter and telegram that Putin may implement martial law tomorrow and disallow citizens to leave Russia.

STURM · Oct 18, 2022

The problem for the Russians is that although they are destroying Ukrainian AD systems not enough are being destroyed to make a difference. The question also is whether deliveries of Aspide, Hawk, NASAM, IRIS and Crotale will have a major impact on the ability of Russia to effectively deploy air power.

ngatimozart · Oct 19, 2022

Señor Pomidor said:
There are rumors in twitter and telegram that Putin may implement martial law tomorrow and disallow citizens to leave Russia.

There are lots of rumours and rumours are just that. I can't remember if it's the Chinese or the Japanese who call rumour a yapping dog. The point is that we hold no real stock in them.

This is the wrong thread for this post so in the future make sure that you post in the correct thread.

Feanor · Oct 19, 2022

Update. Oct 6th-10th

Kherson-Nikolaev-Krivoy Rog-Odessa.

Ukrainian Humvees maneuvering under fire in Kherson region. One apparently gets taken out.

The Russian-Ukrainian War Thread

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