Just canvassing some opinions but say hypothetically-given the increasing tensions in the pacific would it be a good idea for nz to reduce its lav fleet by 20 or so? Hypothetically speaking?
Are you envisioning the status quo, with most of the (operational) LAV's still under the Armoured Corps (RNZAC)?
(And do we know whether 1st Battalion RNZIR at Linton still operate them)?
And what context are you envisaging?
Eg worse-case scenarios, like protecting Taiwan?? Or more likely under FPDA circumstances eg to booster Singapore and Malaysia's defences? If so, with these locations being awash with vast amounts of their own vastly superior firepower I doubt 3 NZ (LAV) squadrons (and infantry) would make much difference, plus our assets would probably be one of the coalition lowest-priorities for deployment (as coalition taskings would be occupied with many other priority demands, distance/time considerations, and maintaining attrition due to likely losses etc).
But history shows NZ's Armoured Corps fought in Europe and the Pacific in WW2, Korea (personnel embedded with UK tank regiments), then later using M113's assisted NATO efforts in Europe (Bosnia) in the 1990's and East Timor (UN), then deployed LAV's to Afghanistan .... so from that we can only but predict one day NZ's armoured assets will be in action again!
I think the question should be, what armoured force structure does NZ need? How will it be deployed (and where)? And will it be affordable, to be able to offer a credible capability?
And then there are other questions.
Planning wise, does the NZ Army need dedicated fire support vehicles again (with a greater caliber weaponry)?
In terms of the existing LAV's, why not store (eg) 1-2 dozen "surplus" vehicles in Queensland (or the Northern Territory) so that they are in-situ with ADF (and USMC) assets, for ease of joint deployments into the wider Indo-Pacific etc? (Presumably the NZ Army would have a small number of LAV maintainers based there to run and maintain the vehicles. Then fly additional specialist personnel when required for readying the vehicles for training exercises or operations etc).
Would NZ Army be better to advocate for a smaller number of LAV (wheeled) replacements for QAMR, so that funding could be directed to also obtain 1-2 dozen FSV's? Perhaps 2-3 dozen heavy MRAP vehicles etc? Additional Bushmasters? Is there a need for a small number (1-2 dozen) tracked APC/IFV vehicles so Army has options to deploy anywhere the government would expect it to (and like how the ADF have these options)?
And will NZ Army advocate for amphibious vehicles, perhaps 1-2 dozen (like the LARC-V replacements that the Australian Army are obtaining) for operations on
HMNZS Canterbury currently, or the future LPH's? They could also be used for routine/HADR deployments, so would be a handy but relatively low cost acquisition.
I don't think this is primarily a RNZN project, apart from being jointly supported, it is primarily Army as they are the endusers, so they need to advocate for it ... like how they need to advocate for maritime troop helo capabilities for Canterbury/future LPH's (jointly with RNZAF/RNZN). But how realistic, as they seem to be focused on building up infantry numbers at the moment, not so much specialist or niche "high-tech" capabilities (which wouldn't be suprsing as there would likely be technical challenges to overcome, as in needing specialised personnel that just aren't there in great numbers, so perhaps "nice to have" unless time and govt funding was willing)? Then to add, any new capabilities needs logistical support, meaning additional resources, costs, time and effort etc. Unless the Govt re-prioritises defence (funding), expect to see only but incremental change!