Turkey - Geopolitical & Geostrategic.

[ngatimozart]

@swerve the long historical enmity between the English and the French comes to mind. It's really only in the last 150 years that you two have got along. Then there is the enmity between English and the Irish and that still hasn't been put to bed for good yet.

However would the EU weaponise trade and tourism like the PRC has? I don't think so but it definitely could make life difficult for Turkey if it chose to through the judicious use of sanctions and restrictions on exports and licensing to Turkey of military and dual use technology.

 

[Ananda]

Seven of the biggest destinations for Turkish exports were EU members; Germany (9.6%), UK (6.6), Italy (5.7), Spain (4.6), France (4.3), Netherlands, Belgium. Iraq was 4th (5.0), USA 5th (4.9), & Israel 10th (2.3). Romania 11th (ahead of Russia), Poland 12th, Bulgaria about the same as China

@swerve the data you've shown consistent with the points I make on my previous posts. German and UK continue as the main Turkey Partner in Euro zone. The trade numbers also related to how EU's countries interaction with Turkey.

Look what happened with Turkey Mediterranean conflicts, it's with Euro Nation's that practically have lower trade interaction. French sided with Greece, while Italy despite it's closer are being relative neutral.

All the Eastern Euro and Southern Euro Nation's that have little trade interaction with Turkey (despite it's closer geographic situation), are the ones that continue frustrated Turkey on the effort to gain inclusion with EU. In sense despite their relative lower Economics power within EU (except French), they're the ones that practically using EU as political weapon to push Turkey down the path now.

Off course Erdo are big reason for Turkey-EU path right now. However the constant smaller Economics EU members (outside French) like Greece, and those Eastern European, frustrated Factions in Turkey that wants closer relationship with EU, and strengthen Erdogan nationalistics power base. The way I see Turkish media and forums this day are if EU continue push us down, we will push back.

That's why I see trade is part of strategy to reduce tensions. That's why despite tensions that China have with it's neighbors in East Asia and Some in ASEAN, the continue increasing trade and Investment also used as tools to counteract tensions. It can be said as Ngati put of China weaponised trade and Investment within Asia. However it's also way out on finding tensions release. Those Chinese neighbors still put waried eyes to China, continue build up their Military as that, but continue increase inter Asian trade and Investment with China. Basically putting one hand in trade and Investment, while putting one hand behind with sword.

Still in my opinion it's better than what Turkey have with EU now. How Turkey can be integrated more with EU relationship, when EU continue being sanction off on that path with mostly smaller members that have historical beef with Turkey ?
For me, I can see the frustration on Turkey side, that lead nationalist like Erdo continue in power.

 

[swerve]

Germany's top because it has the biggest economy & trade levels, not because of attitudes to Turkey.

As a proportion of their total trade Turkey's nearest neighbours (Romania, Bulgaria, & even Greece) trade with Turkey much more than the UK or Germany do. Italy & Spain trade with Turkey more, in proportion to their total trade, than Germany & the UK. Imports from Turkey are 50% more as a share of Italy's imports than they are of Germany's, for example. France isn't an outlier: it imports just over half as much as Germany altogether, & a bit less than half as much from Turkey.

Things like this have to be viewed in context.

 

[JohnWolf]

....
Things like this have to be viewed in context.

Indeed, and this is all very interesting. Turkey's trade appears to be Euro-centric from what little I have seen, but what about other Muslim nations? What about Iran, in particular?
It appears that if they have a serious falling-out with the EU Turkey will start hurting almost instantly, and very badly.

 

[swerve]

There's a big difference between imports & exports. China exports a lot to Turkey, for example (like Russia), but imports much less from Turkey. About the same as Turkey exports to Romania, IIRC. I gave export destinations because I thought that in general, lost export markets hurt more than lost import suppliers. There's usually an alternative supplier, but finding new customers is harder.

A lot of Turkish exports go to Arab countries: Iraq top, but also Egypt, Saudi Arabia, etc. Some very skewed trade: it buys 2.5 times as much from Iran as it sells.
World Bank data -
https://wits.worldbank.org/CountryP...rading,Germany, United States and Unspecified.

 

[ngatimozart]

The Biden Administration has continued the Trump Administration's ban of Turkish involvement in the F-35 program due to its S-400 SAM acquisition from Russia. The Pentagon has stated than the only way that the ban and sanctions will be lifted is if Turkey relinquishes ownership of the S-400 system or any newer versions, that Russian nationals or its contractors are no longer operating, accessing, or maintaining air defence systems within Turkey, and that the Turkish govt gives reasonable assurances that it will not breach CAATSA again. Biden has to certify in December this year whether or not Turkey has kept or removed the S-400.

Erdogan will have a hissy fit over this, because he wanted to have his cake and eat it.

Biden’s Pentagon to Keep Turkey Out of F-35 Program | Air & Space Forces Magazine

The Biden administration is continuing its predecessor’s policy of excluding Turkey from the international F-35 Joint Strike Fighter program.

www.airforcemag.com

 

[Feanor]

Turkey has just announced some serious space exploration ambitions, including a lunar program, with unnamed partners, and its own satellite positioning system, though just a regional one. They will need a major partner with the tech to move at a pace this fast. I can't help but wonder who that partner is, there aren't many options. Really just 4, US, EU, Russia, or China. I think the EU is out for obvious reasons. Maybe the US? If the Biden administration made a bold play? Maybe Russia, given recent joint projects in the nuclear area, and the Turkish Stream pipeline (Luna-25 is supposed to launch and land on the moon this October, and Russia desperately needs partners for its lunar program for financial reasons first of all)? China would be an interesting one too though it seems less likely to me. The plan to use a domestic rocket for the 2023 lunar mission in my opinion is a pipe dream. It's far likelier that it will be a "version" of a foreign rocket with some Turkish participation.

Космические амбиции Турции

Президент Турции Реджеп Тайип Эрдоган, выступая на пресс-конференции 9 февраля 2021 года в Анкаре на церемонии провозглашения десятилетней Национальной космической программы Турции (Milli Uzay Programi) и открытия Космического агентства Турции (TUA), сообщил об амбициозных турецких космических…

bmpd.livejournal.com

 

[Ananda]

Turkey has just announced some serious space exploration ambitions, including a lunar program, with unnamed partners, and its own satellite positioning system, though just a regional one

His Highness Erdo Sultan ego seems bit hurt with UAE doing Hope mission to Mars. In the end is all back to how much His Highness Erdo Sultan willing to sink Turkey resources in this space program. Turkish media and Forums say that Turkish Space Agency (TUA) will get USD 300 Mio equivalent on annual budget. Considering how other defense initiative that Erdo Sultan want to embark, something going to be sacrifice.

Few years back on Key Forum, I got my self involved on pointless debate with some Turkish nationalist forumers. They downside ROK capabilities for KFX and as usual from those kinds of forumers, boasting that TFX prototype will fly far ahead of schedule then KFX. I'm pointing out with them on Turkish Economics capabilities compared to ROK. Well will see now the KAI already in the process of building their prototype and TAI still in design stage of TFX.

Point I make in here is, Erdo Sultan ego push Turkey on projects timeline that sometimes beyond their tech and Economics capabilities. I don't doubt given time and budget, they can come out with Rocket for micro satellite launch vessels. It's not that difficult to achieve given their Tech progress. Question always in how much budget they will want to sink in. However building larger satellite launch vehicles ? Well Erdo Sultan need to sacrifice other projects to have it within 2.5 years.

 

[Sandhi Yudha]

Turkey has just announced some serious space exploration ambitions, including a lunar program, with unnamed partners, and its own satellite positioning system, though just a regional one. They will need a major partner with the tech to move at a pace this fast. I can't help but wonder who that partner is, there aren't many options. Really just 4, US, EU, Russia, or China. I think the EU is out for obvious reasons. Maybe the US? If the Biden administration made a bold play? Maybe Russia, given recent joint projects in the nuclear area, and the Turkish Stream pipeline (Luna-25 is supposed to launch and land on the moon this October, and Russia desperately needs partners for its lunar program for financial reasons first of all)? China would be an interesting one too though it seems less likely to me. The plan to use a domestic rocket for the 2023 lunar mission in my opinion is a pipe dream. It's far likelier that it will be a "version" of a foreign rocket with some Turkish participation.

Космические амбиции Турции

Президент Турции Реджеп Тайип Эрдоган, выступая на пресс-конференции 9 февраля 2021 года в Анкаре на церемонии провозглашения десятилетней Национальной космической программы Турции (Milli Uzay Programi) и открытия Космического агентства Турции (TUA), сообщил об амбициозных турецких космических…

bmpd.livejournal.com

Turkiye has an advanced aerospace industry, but sending a spaceprobe on a rocket in a 100% indigenous moon explorationprogram before 2024 is quite a fanboyish fantasy, in fact totally lunatic!

It took countries like china, India and Japan decades to reach the level of today, and often assisted by foreign technology. Even a country like South-Korea doesnt have such wild fantasies to do a similar program before 2024.

Its like Feanor already said more likely that Turkey will join in a next Luna (26 or 27) development, maybe they will supply components or scientific instruments for these spacecrafts or maybe they will participate in the Glonass-program.

 

[Ananda]

Turkiye has an advanced aerospace industry, but sending a spaceprobe on a rocket in a 100% indigenous moon explorationprogram before 2024 is quite a fanboyish fantasy, in fact totally lunatic!

UAE invest around USD 5 bio to get into their Mars Hope probe stage. That's including development of Probe, and build UAE space agency support facilities from ground up. Also they use Japan Launch vehicle, and I believe all that Investment include finding vendors to support the tech. That's reasonable considering UAE build from scratch all their Space program.

Now Considering Turkish rocket mostly still on sonda rocket stage, building large launch vehicles will not be feasible on short time. At most they can go with small launch vehicles for Micro Satellite. With much less Budget, even Indonesian Lapan aim to do that. TUA with larger budget can speed up the process.

However that's about it in short term. Unless someone provide them with blue print and materials tech to build large launch vehicles, it's just you say simply fanboyish thinking, to gain that stage in the time frame they aim. Even if they have UAE budget size.

Unless it's not the actual what TUA aim, reading some Turkish forumers, saying that within 2-3 years what they aim is only micro satellite launch vehicles. If that so, then it's workable. Since for micro satellite is more on low orbit stage. Still I see some Turkish forumers on their forums already fantasize of Space X capabilities in short term.

Seems His Highness Erdo Sultan already brain wash some segment on Turkey public on what he want them to dream, and not the reality of Turkish capabilities. TFX, Aircraft Carriers, Large Satellite Vehicles, Transport Jet, Regional Jet and even F-35 that he's adamant Bidden give in and provide them to Turkey (while still allowing Turkey S-400 deal). All within 3-4 years time.

 

[Sandhi Yudha]

Turkey detains 26 suspects over defense industry espionage charges

The Turkish police announced the detentions, which took place in five different provinces. An anti-terror court released seven suspects and ruled for the arrest of 19.

www.defensenews.com

It is actually unclear for me if these 26 people are actual spies or just Gulen-supporters working in the defence-industry. I mean, it doesnt make sense that they will give sensitive technological data to Gulen. What can he do with it? He doesnt have a own defence industry or something.

 

[ngatimozart]

Turkey detains 26 suspects over defense industry espionage charges

The Turkish police announced the detentions, which took place in five different provinces. An anti-terror court released seven suspects and ruled for the arrest of 19.

www.defensenews.com

It is actually unclear for me if these 26 people are actual spies or just Gulen-supporters working in the defence-industry. I mean, it doesnt make sense that they will give sensitive technological data to Gulen. What can he do with it? He doesnt have a own defence industry or something.

I agree. When I read it, I was thinking that it sounded more like a purge than anything else. Maybe they forgot to pay their protection money or something. It could possibly be punishment from corrupt officials. Who knows.

 

[Ananda]

Turkish wants new F-16 Vipers & modernization of existing fighters in a strategic reaction to Greece's moves - ProtoThema English

Will the US sell the Vipers to Turkey & what repercussions will that have on the Greek-American MDCA agreement that is being negotiated

en.protothema.gr

Whaatt..Sultan Erdo still want US Fighters ?? How about his claim that TFX will satisfied all Turkey Fighters need ?

Joking asside I put on this thread, since it's coming from Greek source and I always reserve doubt on any Greece sources on Turkey matter and vice versa (Just like I put doubt on Indian sources on Pakistan and vice versa). However this if it's true can be 'potentially' the last test on Turkey relationship with US, with all that happening in Syria and S-400 - F-35 drama.

On paper it is reasonable thing to do with F-16 practically create back bone of Turkish AF. As also Turkey has it's own F-16 facilities, they can do all the upgrades locally, or even licensing newly build Blk 70. If US refuse Turkey on new Blk 70, it is last straw on their 'aliance' relationship. As practically US now even considering F-35 and F-16 upgrade program to Greece.

Unless US really want to break up with Turkey, I don't know how they are going to refuse this.

 

[John Fedup]

Yep, have to agree, a refusal on this would be a clear termination, assuming of course the Greek source has it right.

 

[Ananda]

See this talk on new Turkish F-16 order couple days ago. Usually Turkish sources will fastly denied any Greece sources claim if it's not true. So far they haven't denied or acknowledge anything on the matter, and stay silent.

 

[Big_Zucchini]

Turkish wants new F-16 Vipers & modernization of existing fighters in a strategic reaction to Greece's moves - ProtoThema English

Will the US sell the Vipers to Turkey & what repercussions will that have on the Greek-American MDCA agreement that is being negotiated

en.protothema.gr

Whaatt..Sultan Erdo still want US Fighters ?? How about his claim that TFX will satisfied all Turkey Fighters need ?

Joking asside I put on this thread, since it's coming from Greek source and I always reserve doubt on any Greece sources on Turkey matter and vice versa (Just like I put doubt on Indian sources on Pakistan and vice versa). However this if it's true can be 'potentially' the last test on Turkey relationship with US, with all that happening in Syria and S-400 - F-35 drama.

On paper it is reasonable thing to do with F-16 practically create back bone of Turkish AF. As also Turkey has it's own F-16 facilities, they can do all the upgrades locally, or even licensing newly build Blk 70. If US refuse Turkey on new Blk 70, it is last straw on their 'aliance' relationship. As practically US now even considering F-35 and F-16 upgrade program to Greece.

Unless US really want to break up with Turkey, I don't know how they are going to refuse this.

If Turkey wants to end this relationship, then it's best to pull it quick like a bandaid.

The US should refuse. Its decision to withdraw Turkey from the JSF put some pressure on Turkey, but further preventing them from upgrading existing aircraft might enable the US to get a better effect from that pressure campaign.

 

[Ananda]

further preventing them from upgrading existing aircraft might enable the US to get a better effect from that pressure campaign.

What better effect ? It will end their alliance relationship if they (US) do that. Is it in US better interest ? Surely it will be for Israel and Greece. However it will be US interest with Turkey that will determine in the end.

 

[STURM]

Turkey has no intent of ending the relationship, neither does the U.S. One can make all types of arguements why the U.S. can or should walk away and why Turkey might do the same but there's just too much at stake here.

 

[Big_Zucchini]

What better effect ? It will end their alliance relationship if they (US) do that. Is it in US better interest ? Surely it will be for Israel and Greece. However it will be US interest with Turkey that will determine in the end.

I'm talking strictly about US interests here.
The US decided to throw Turkey out of the JSF program to put pressure on it. What could this do? Convince Turkey to drop the S-400 and more importantly its newfound alliance with Russia.
Turkey was harmed by said move, but it did not push it far enough. Another move like that could push it past that threshold to re-commit to an alliance with the US.

The current state is already unsatisfactory and Turkey cannot be relied upon to fulfill the requests of allies in times of need.

Governments like those that exist in Turkey, Iran, Russia, China etc, are inherently unstable, and historically are proven to be very temporary in nature. Even if for us, with our short life spans, it may seem like a long time.
So Turkey will likely keep realigning if it stays on its course, which is a costly and time consuming endeavor, not to mention it makes one vulnerable in times of transition or uncertainty.
It needs to be shown the consequences of realignment, and no it does not mean the alliance will end. It means Turkey will feel like it has more to lose by dumping the west.

Furthermore, the US has suffered from a long series of events and decisions that made it look weak or incoherent on the world stage. This is not something that Turkey, a country led by a political strongman, can relate to.
A show of strength is needed, and is often what's more respected in this region.

 

[STURM]

Convince Turkey to drop the S-400 and more importantly its newfound alliance with Russia.

I'm aware that both countries have common concerns and interests and are taking the necessary steps to improve relations which were previously strained but I was unaware of any "alliance" per see.

The way I see it, unless it is completely forced to [from its perpective], there will be no Turkish realignnent from the U S, the West and NATO. Just like how Turkey's new state of relations with Russia is no actual indicator it's shifting to Russia - Turkey is still a NATO nember, benefits from its ties with the West in a way Russian can never replace or compensate, is in direct competition with Russia in several places and both countries [under the Ottomans and the Czars] have a turbulent history.

Governments like those that exist in Turkey, Iran, Russia, China etc, are inherently unstable, and historically are proven to be very temporary in nature.

In yiur view are countries like Saudi, Qatar, Jordan and the U A E. any more stable than Turkey and the other countries you mentioned given their shorter history as nation states, style of government, as well as other factors?

According your oersonal definition and in the context of this dicussion, how long is "temporary"?