PRC Peoples Liberation Army Navy

[Feanor]

We know PLAN is unlikely to win vs USN , but do they _need_ to?

So one needs to look at China's navy not in terms of "can it beat America" but in terms of "is it good enough to do what it needs to do?"

Consider:

Taiwan itself is divided about independence. How hard will they fight, especially if China is able to achieve a quick and relatively bloodless victory?

America can live without Taiwanese electronics and America loves cheap Chinese factories.

So will America pay the butchers bill if China is able to inflict some early casualties? America is fighting in Afghanistan and Iraq because of a direct terrorist threat to American security. Where this is not the case e.g. Somalia and Chechnia, America is much more casualty shy.

And will America intervene, if Taiwan decides not to resist? Who would be the "good guy" in that situation?

The PLAN may be close to being adequate. A few years perhaps?

edit - obviously this doesnt apply to a pearl harbor scenario; i am thinking china marches into taiwan, some people die, america and china fight, many chinese and some americans die; maybe taiwan gives up (it is divided), maybe america thinks "yea we can win, but we'd lose more people and we like chinese trade; taiwan will still provide us electronics but this time via china; let's forget this ever happened..."

America is casualty shy in Chechnya? What are you smoking? There are no American troops there. Chechnya was at best an unrecognized and highly internally unstable dictatorship, located inside of Russia. An attempt to deploy any sort of international or US forces there would have brought the US to the brink of a major war. It's got nothing to do with being casualty shy, and everything with the simple fact that the US never had any intention, particular opportunity, or political justification for military involvement there.

In regards to Somalia, I dare say the US was not casualty shy, it was not willing to pay the (exorbitant) price tag to clean up a region of the world with relatively little geo-political significance.

 

[T.C.P]

America is casualty shy in Chechnya? What are you smoking? There are no American troops there. Chechnya was at best an unrecognized and highly internally unstable dictatorship, located inside of Russia. An attempt to deploy any sort of international or US forces there would have brought the US to the brink of a major war. It's got nothing to do with being casualty shy, and everything with the simple fact that the US never had any intention, particular opportunity, or political justification for military involvement there.

In regards to Somalia, I dare say the US was not casualty shy, it was not willing to pay the (exorbitant) price tag to clean up a region of the world with relatively little geo-political significance.

Hit the nail on the spot. Any ways the Chinese aren't stupid, they wont invade Taiwan unless they are capable of totally dismantling the Taiwanese military and holding off a U.S attack. Also one has to consider the nuclear factor, an escalated conflict between the U.S and China will easily turn nuclear

 

[1805]

We know PLAN is unlikely to win vs USN , but do they _need_ to?

So one needs to look at China's navy not in terms of "can it beat America" but in terms of "is it good enough to do what it needs to do?"

Consider:

Taiwan itself is divided about independence. How hard will they fight, especially if China is able to achieve a quick and relatively bloodless victory?

America can live without Taiwanese electronics and America loves cheap Chinese factories.

So will America pay the butchers bill if China is able to inflict some early casualties? America is fighting in Afghanistan and Iraq because of a direct terrorist threat to American security. Where this is not the case e.g. Somalia and Chechnia, America is much more casualty shy.

And will America intervene, if Taiwan decides not to resist? Who would be the "good guy" in that situation?

The PLAN may be close to being adequate. A few years perhaps?

edit - obviously this doesnt apply to a pearl harbor scenario; i am thinking china marches into taiwan, some people die, america and china fight, many chinese and some americans die; maybe taiwan gives up (it is divided), maybe america thinks "yea we can win, but we'd lose more people and we like chinese trade; taiwan will still provide us electronics but this time via china; let's forget this ever happened..."

You're right the China/Taiwan situation is unlikely to develop into a global hot war. Not only America but Taiwan itself and the rest of Asia have interests in those Chinese factories.

The most extreme example China invades, the rest of the world would turn a blind eye now in the same way it did to India throwing the Portugese out of Goa. In reality this is a non-issue Taiwan will become a self governing province of China the way as HK/Macau as China moves from a from a bureaucracy to a democracy

 

[rip]

You're right the China/Taiwan situation is unlikely to develop into a global hot war. Not only America but Taiwan itself and the rest of Asia have interests in those Chinese factories.

The most extreme example China invades, the rest of the world would turn a blind eye now in the same way it did to India throwing the Portugese out of Goa. In reality this is a non-issue Taiwan will become a self governing province of China the way as HK/Macau as China moves from a from a bureaucracy to a democracy

There is certainly a lot to think about from some of the recent posts. Some points I agree and some I don’t. True America will not fight for Taiwan if it will not fight for its self and America does not oppose the unification of Taiwan into China, if it is by the consent of its people. But the situation I believe is not what you think it is. If the Communist parity gives up its monopoly of power then Taiwan will be peacefully reintegrated within China proper. Most but not all, of the people in Taiwan want unification but what they want even more is freedom. If they can have both they will take both.

Many there are on this thread that can talk about economic, historical, and geo-political realities but to stop there is just foolishness. Freedom has a power all of its own. Freedom is greater than economic reality. There are many examples in the world’s history where a weaker, outnumbered, and even technologically out classed people have successfully stood up too and then defeated a greater power, when the people being attacked were fighting for their freedom and especially when the people that were attacking them, had less freedom than they themselves.

I believe there is enough support from the general Taiwanese population to fight and to fight hard if they are attacked. Fighting, once started would have, as a consequence of thenature of fighting, would bring even more people to the defense of their homes. Even people that would at first be willing to live under reduced freedom. That kind of action has a momentum all its own. And if China did attack and failed to take Taiwan, no matter for what reason that it failed, Taiwan would then never be reunited with a greater China. Just think of the consequences of how people would react?

As to the comment” the rest of the world would turn a blind eye now in the same way it did to India throwing the Portuguese out of Goa.” That was part of the reorganization of the world after post colonialism, when most of the people living in Goa favored reunification with India and the Portuguese were pretty bad colonists to boot. But the Portuguese’s colony that was taken over by the Indonesian’s in East Timor, which didn’t have local support had a very different outcome didn’t it?

 

[Feanor]

This thread is wandering once again. Lets bring this back on topic. Chinese Navy and it's potential applications. Taiwanese and Chinese political dynamics are not part of this.

 

[OpinionNoted]

. Also one has to consider the nuclear factor, an escalated conflict between the U.S and China will easily turn nuclear

Thats why there has been no war between nuclear armed countries since they were introduced.
.

 

[1805]

Thats why there has been no war between nuclear armed countries since they were introduced.
.

India & Pakistan?

 

[rip]

This thread is wandering once again. Lets bring this back on topic. Chinese Navy and it's potential applications. Taiwanese and Chinese political dynamics are not part of this.

In the history of warfare, equipment and weapons specifically developed for war at sea have often found many applications in land warfare but there are fewer examples of ether weapons or tactics developed for land use which have been taken successfully to sea without major modifications in both. It is hard to get accurate information about the modern Chinese navy but it still feels to be with what little I can find out, is that it is like an army like organization with an army like weapons, put on ships. That might not be a fair evaluation for it is just a feeling.

The Chines Navy has recently taken part in the anti-piracy operations off the East African cost. As I understand it, this is one of its first deployments outside their coastal waters. It has mainly been taken positively by the rest of the world as an indication that China and its navy are beginning to take some responsibility in the world. But there doesn’t seem to be a lot of other indications which are normally commonly seen in other large modern world raging navies. Do they go too far flung ports for friendship visits with open houses ship tours? Do they participate in ongoing scientific operations like the annual Antarctic research and resupply activities, or participate in ocean roaming Fish and other biologic studies, including the monitoring of illegal whale and fish caches outside of their exclusive economy zone,do they provide navigational and weather hazard informational alerts? You get the Idea.

I know that engaging in these activities are political decisions to be made at some level but it also gives the Chinese seaman a chance to gain varied Blue-Water ocean experience that every navy needs while making friends at the same time.

 

[randomsailor]

This thread is wandering once again. Lets bring this back on topic. Chinese Navy and it's potential applications. Taiwanese and Chinese political dynamics are not part of this.

Potential application of Chinese Navy is Taiwan. If China believes that they have chance for sufficient success to achieve aim, without having to fight entire US Navy, they might just do it.

My point is, people who said "there is no chance of confrontation as USN is so much stronger than PLAN" are making potentially huge error.

 

[weasel1962]

Re:

Potential application of Chinese Navy is Taiwan. If China believes that they have chance for sufficient success to achieve aim, without having to fight entire US Navy, they might just do it.

My point is, people who said "there is no chance of confrontation as USN is so much stronger than PLAN" are making potentially huge error.

Agree. The chinese psyche esp in the top echelons of the communist party do not tolerate thoughts of letting Taiwan go. Thats why when wikileaks suggest specific individuals suggest this, it becomes news as everyone is monitoring whether the next generation of chinese leaders will actually continue the same hardline stance on Taiwan.

Tactically, the USN assumptions do not include:

(a) actual deployments

USN is not entirely deployed facing China. Only a small fraction is and it will take time to consolidate the rest of USN. Same applies for the USAF but redeployment is significantly faster esp with bases in Korea and Japan. Having said that, there is a limit on the number of bases which will limit sortie rates.

On the other hand, be it NSF, ESF or SSF, any of the fleets have a potential to be quickly deployed in a taiwan conflict. PLAAF is similar constrained by airfields but it has significantly more.

(b) allied deployments

If Korea and Japan join the fight, China has to face significant forces. Okinawa is the closest base that US deploys at. China cannot afford to ignore it yet being Japanese soil, any chinese attack will likely draw Japan into the conflict.

The Chinese navy cannot handle the combined navies of Taiwan, Korea, Japan, the US as well as potential other APAC allies eg Australia over the next few decades at its current rate of growth. It doesn't take a military analyst to see that.

 

[Sampanviking]

Okinawa is the closest base that US deploys at. China cannot afford to ignore it yet being Japanese soil, any chinese attack will likely draw Japan into the conflict.

The moment any country allows the US to use bases on its territories to attack the PRC, they will be declaring war on China.

Are you sure that China's Regional neighbours wish to risk this and face the prospects of the US "bugging out" Vietnam style and leaving them to face a very angry dragon by themselves?

 

[SASWanabe]

The moment any country allows the US to use bases on its territories to attack the PRC, they will be declaring war on China.

Are you sure that China's Regional neighbours wish to risk this and face the prospects of the US "bugging out" Vietnam style and leaving them to face a very angry dragon by themselves?

even without the US. South Korea, Japan and Taiwan are a force to be reconed with.

but... this raises a "North-South" Korea point, if the South goes to war with china ods are the north would try to invade. mainly because they're just that stupid

 

[rip]

Potential application of Chinese Navy is Taiwan. If China believes that they have chance for sufficient success to achieve aim, without having to fight entire US Navy, they might just do it.

My point is, people who said "there is no chance of confrontation as USN is so much stronger than PLAN" are making potentially huge error.

If you are trying to make the point that China’s actions are unpredictable I most certainly agree. Using logic and analysis it would seem that it would not be in China’s best interest to attack Taiwan militarily but just wait them out. I can think of several ways that China could absorb Twain in the next fifty or sixty years without resorting to violence. But just because it would not be smart or logical, does not mean that would not try. China’s policy toward Twain is driven mainly by internal Chinese politics with are not seen or understood from the people on the outside. So is the question simply that if it thinks it can, it would? I do not know.

If we ask the question could China successfully evade Taiwan? The answers is no. Twain is a militarized country, less perhaps than South Korea but still very formable with deep infantry reserves (they still have compulsive military service) and prepared defensive positions, with quite a numbers of them secret. Also I think most of the people on this board underestimate the difficulties in conducting large scale amphibious assaults against prepared modern defenses.

For the purposes of this discussion let us consider that the only two players are China and Taiwan with no external support for the first two weeks of conflict and that the Chinese attack without warning. Before you can mount a large scale amphibious operation you have to gather together the ships and men. It is no longer possible to keep large scale troop contractions and movements very secret so the Pearl Harbor surprise attack is unlikely. But nevertheless first they would have to achieve complete air and sea superiority. No matter how many planes or missiles the Chinese have that will take time. No amphibious commander with a brain would commit large troop concentrations to restricted waters, close to the enemies defences, at slow speeds until the air above them is clear. Depending how smart and cagey the Taiwanese play it, that alone would take two weeks and since the Taiwanese would be playing defense on their own territory the Chinese would take casualties at a rate of at least three to one in aircraft and ships before the invasion could even begin and then there is still land based mobile ant-ship missiles and mines which can be drooped quickly from fifhing boats if necessary to deal with much less submarines that survive longer than you think they would. In short Taiwan is a much harder nut to crackb than you are giving cridet for. It could be taken I grant you but it would first take a lote of time and effort before the amphibious part could even begain. This would not be a short quick war even without American help.

 

[Arthicrex]

Potential application of Chinese Navy is Taiwan. If China believes that they have chance for sufficient success to achieve aim, without having to fight entire US Navy, they might just do it.

My point is, people who said "there is no chance of confrontation as USN is so much stronger than PLAN" are making potentially huge error.

I agree.

Taiwan''s existance goes against the legitimacy of communist party. They will try to absorb Taiwan even with high cost, if they can overwhelm Taiwan quickly enough so they avoid major US intervention. I think the current build up of China's naval/air power is centered around acquiring that capability.

The ship lanes around Taiwan is too important for both Japan and US. I think US is very commited to protect Tawiwan from potential invasion, and Japan will also have to whether they like it or not.

 

[Feanor]

even without the US. South Korea, Japan and Taiwan are a force to be reconed with.

but... this raises a "North-South" Korea point, if the South goes to war with china ods are the north would try to invade. mainly because they're just that stupid

I wouldn't bet on it. North Korea may not be a rational unitary actor, but it's far from stupid.

 

[Wall83]

Varyag is getting ready for its first trials is seems.

First China aircraft carrier sea trial next week | Navy News at DefenseTalk

 

[tphuang]

I really don't think it will be sea trialing next week. I saw some of the photos recently and they seem to still have a bit of work to go before it is ready. Let's just say that there is way too much stuff still on the deck.

 

[STURM]

but... this raises a "North-South" Korea point, if the South goes to war with china ods are the north would try to invade. mainly because they're just that stupid

The primary goal of the North Korean leadership is regime survival. Despite all their sabre rattling, they are unlikely to do anything that will jeopardise the very survival of the regime. All their actions to date, which may seem illogical and risky to outsiders, are actually taken after a lot of deliberations by the leadership and are actually intended to produce benefits, whether political or psychological.

 

[Tony Pear]

America has stated they're committed to the defence of Taiwan but not if Taiwan declares independence and starts the conflict. Given that its hard to say Taiwan is divided on the issue.

edit: I'm struggling to think of any situation where military aggression in Asia would be tolerated. I can see limited disputes over various land claims but nothing of the scale you're suggesting, especially considering America seeming to increase its commitment in Asia recently along with its allies.

If US ignores Taiwan when China attacks it, no ones on earth believes on US anymore.

I really don't think it will be sea trialing next week. I saw some of the photos recently and they seem to still have a bit of work to go before it is ready. Let's just say that there is way too much stuff still on the deck.

They pospone the coming out date of the carrier because of technical problems.

 

[aussienscale]

And in a surprising report China has postponed sea trials of Varyag until an un-specified date in August

China Military Report: Who Will Command China's Aircraft Carriers?

The report say it was due to mechanical difficulties or in part Beijing's concern about regional anxieties over the South China Sea ? I would be leaning more towards the first