It appears that the explosion in Venezuela was an attack on Iran's missile base

[djevilfer]

video cavim blast

i cant put url im noob


video cavim blast 01/30/11

Admin. Welcome to the forums.

Please provide comment rather than a youtube video. we're after debate first

 

[Feanor]

Assuming that only handful of missiles would be deployed and launched, interception might be somewhat simple.

As far as invasion is concerned, unless there is a popular support for U.S to overthrow Chavez I don't think U.S could afford to invade VZ, especially with U.S busy in Afghanistan (and Iraq). I see only two options if we go by this argument:

i) Nuke Iran &/or VZ (a very difficult choice)
or
ii) massive air strikes against VZ military establishment.

Personally I think 2nd option is more possible.

To keep my reply on point, as it stands VZ is not interested in real confrontation with the US. It might posture and talk loudly, but at the end of their days they have more pressing and more real concerns *cough* Colombia *cough*. Conceivably if they were to obtain a handful of IRBMs, the only way they would use them is if there was an in progress US invasion. Within that context, there is no question of what the response on the part of the US should be. Additionally, if we assume a preventative strike against those missiles option 2 on your list is the one that would be exercised. I'm not sure I see where we disagree.

 

[Feanor]

Because to my understanding (Correct me if wrong) VZ is being supported and armed by Russia as there are several deals going on.
Would Russia allow the west to take actions against their lets call it friendly contact as i do not believe that VZ is a real ally of Russia.

If the US invaded out of the blue, the international fallout would be immense, and Russia would certainly capitalize on it. But as it stands, if Venezuela does something like purchasing IRBMs, which they get hit by a US air-strike, the Russian response will be something along the lines "Hey VZ! Wanna buy some more SAMs?" Russia has too little real political or military power in the region to do anything more. Or desire for that matter.

Given the tentions in asia and in the middle east does this issue generate addition difficulties to contain Iran, as we all have to understand that both will seek ways to make the west look bad and justify their actions.
Another thing that should be thinked of is that if the US wants to invade iran to stop its regime from going the nuke way, it still will face numerous serious problems, so a mass action against VZ might be put down as a example to make tehran understand that the so called red line has been crossed imo.

I seriously doubt an invasion of VZ would send a message to Iran. If anything it would tie down resources which would otherwise be used against Iran. International problems aside.

 

[Beatmaster]

If the US invaded out of the blue, the international fallout would be immense, and Russia would certainly capitalize on it. But as it stands, if Venezuela does something like purchasing IRBMs, which they get hit by a US air-strike, the Russian response will be something along the lines "Hey VZ! Wanna buy some more SAMs?" Russia has too little real political or military power in the region to do anything more. Or desire for that matter.

I seriously doubt an invasion of VZ would send a message to Iran. If anything it would tie down resources which would otherwise be used against Iran. International problems aside.

Thx for explaining.
But would NATO or US allow Russia to sell SAM's to VZ? aint that a direct voilation of UN resolutions? As iam not sure but what was that UN resolution called that limits the arms sale to nations that are allied or friendly with Iran?
Or do i mix up something here?
As VZ is friendly with Iran and does supply them with goods and such, so to my understanding if Russia suppies VZ with new shiny SAMs then this would be a direct violation right?

 

[Spetsznaz]

Thx for explaining.
But would NATO or US allow Russia to sell SAM's to VZ? aint that a direct voilation of UN resolutions? As iam not sure but what was that UN resolution called that limits the arms sale to nations that are allied or friendly with Iran?
Or do i mix up something here?
As VZ is friendly with Iran and does supply them with goods and such, so to my understanding if Russia suppies VZ with new shiny SAMs then this would be a direct violation right?

If you want to bring Russia into this equation, (which is important) than read on this
[ame="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Neutrality_%28international_relations%29"]Neutrality (international relations) - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia@@AMEPARAM@@/wiki/File:Neutral_countries.png" class="image"><img alt="" src="http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/6/63/Neutral_countries.png/300px-Neutral_countries.png"@@AMEPARAM@@commons/thumb/6/63/Neutral_countries.png/300px-Neutral_countries.png[/ame]

There is only so much NATO and the UN will do, if Russia want to continue making discreet sales to VZ that's Russia's Business. Russia will likely stop if the US took serious action towards VZ, but ya never know.

 

[Beatmaster]

I see well that puts things into a differend light obvious.
On the other hand what can Iran and VZ with some help from Russia do to create more difficulty for the US/Nato?
They are both gonna be in serious trouble :nono when they push it to far as the whole international community will have their heads on a political plate.
However they still have enough room to manouvre, so what tricks do they got left that could hurt US and Nato intrests?
As the NATO resolutions against Iran itself seem not as effective as they would like.,

 

[Spetsznaz]

I see well that puts things into a differend light obvious.
On the other hand what can Iran and VZ with some help from Russia do to create more difficulty for the US/Nato?
They are both gonna be in serious trouble :nono when they push it to far as the whole international community will have their heads on a political plate.
However they still have enough room to manouvre, so what tricks do they got left that could hurt US and Nato intrests?
As the NATO resolutions against Iran itself seem not as effective as they would like.,

VZ has far more wiggle room than Iran, although Iran has the money (I THINK)

For a military standpoint, VZ best option is to continue gaining economic power and continue purchasing from Russia, while maintaining good relation with the US. The VZ not out to hurt the US, but rather are trying to expand power South America.

Dont even get me started on Iran. Russia's support is already deteriorating and Iran does not have a lot of ammunition to throw around. If Iran gets its nukes by 2015 like Israel claims, then I GUARANTEE YOU the US will have those nukes removed, via themselves or via Israel.

Expand a bit more on what you mean. bro

 

[Feanor]

Thx for explaining.
But would NATO or US allow Russia to sell SAM's to VZ? aint that a direct voilation of UN resolutions? As iam not sure but what was that UN resolution called that limits the arms sale to nations that are allied or friendly with Iran?
Or do i mix up something here?
As VZ is friendly with Iran and does supply them with goods and such, so to my understanding if Russia suppies VZ with new shiny SAMs then this would be a direct violation right?

I doubt it would much matter. The issue isn't serious enough to warrant a major confrontation, and at the end of the day even a full blown war in Georgia, didn't do much permanent damage.

Not to mention there isn't much VZ can buy to realistically fight off the US. They cam tilt the regional power balance, and some refurb S-300PMU would go a long way towards that end (the Russian gov. is trying to re-negotiate the Iran contract to go to VZ, but it remains to be seen if they're willing to fork up 800 mil USD for 5 btlns).

 

[SABRE]

To keep my reply on point, as it stands VZ is not interested in real confrontation with the US. It might posture and talk loudly, but at the end of their days they have more pressing and more real concerns *cough* Colombia *cough*. Conceivably if they were to obtain a handful of IRBMs, the only way they would use them is if there was an in progress US invasion. Within that context, there is no question of what the response on the part of the US should be. Additionally, if we assume a preventative strike against those missiles option 2 on your list is the one that would be exercised. I'm not sure I see where we disagree.

I must confess I didn't have Colombia on my mind.

I don't see U.S invasion of VZ in near and midterm. Long term who knows. However the argument to use ballistic missiles only under extraordinary circumstances (such as U.S invasion) is quite logical and holds more ground. That does make a modest difference in my opinion.

On the broader level I see us on the same page with very little disagreement.

 

[My2Cents]

VZ has far more wiggle room than Iran, although Iran has the money (I THINK)

For a military standpoint, VZ best option is to continue gaining economic power and continue purchasing from Russia, while maintaining good relation with the US. The VZ not out to hurt the US, but rather are trying to expand power South America.

VZ is losing economic power, not gaining. They have had a negative growth rate for their average annual GDP for the last 4 years and the highest inflation rate in South America. On top of that the rate of capitol investment is negative and continuing to decline.

As for ‘maintaining good relation with the US’, this is a joke. Chavez has never missed a chance to manufacture an opportunity to poke the US in the eye. The only thing in his favor is that Venezuela is not a threat to US interests, so everyone is just content to wait for him to fall. Which, given his growing disillusionment among his supporters may be sooner rather than later.

 

[Beatmaster]

Just a article i dugg up:

TEHRAN, Oct. 21 2010 (Xinhua) -- Iran and Venezuela signed several agreements during Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez's visit to Tehran, which ended on Wednesday, and called their developing ties strategic.

Heading a delegation of economists and politicians, Chavez arrived in Tehran on Monday for talks on diverse areas of cooperation with Iran.

On Wednesday, the ministers of the two countries signed 11 Memorandums of Understanding (MoUs) on promoting cooperation on oil, natural gas, textiles, trade and public housing projects, the local satellite Press TV reported Thursday.

During Chavez's visit, Iran hosted energy talks with Venezuela as part of the two sides' efforts to boost bilateral cooperation on oil, gas and petrochemical industries.

Tehran and Caracas agreed to form a joint oil shipping company and set up petrochemical plants, said the report.

According to the agreement, Venezuela's state oil company Petroleos de Venezuela SA will participate in the exploitation of Iran's South Pars gas field, said Press TV.

Both countries also agreed to construct a refinery plant in Syria and to cooperate in liquefied natural gas (LNG) and in the petrochemical and energy sectors, the official IRNA news agency reported.

Iranian Minister of Housing Ali Nikzad told IRNA that three Iranian firms are commissioned to construct 35,000 residential units in Venezuela within an appropriate span of time.

Nikzad said that an Iranian firm has already constructed 10,000 residential units in Venezuela, according to IRNA.

"The two countries' relations have always been important and brotherly, but now after our last rounds of talks in Tehran and the reached agreements, they have been improved to a strategic level," Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad said during a meeting with his Venezuelan counterpart on Wednesday.

Ahmadinejad also said that the two countries are seeking a new global order whereby changes could be brought about to the world, IRNA reported Thursday.

Both Iran and Venezuela are "determined for overthrowing the unjust ruling system of the world and for the establishment of a new world order based on the rules of justice," he was quoted as saying.

Ahmadinejad added that Tehran and Caracas share proximity of stands on international issues.

The agreements reached are of great importance for the two nations, Chavez said for his part, adding that, "through such cooperation we are expanding the dimensions of our unified will towards the establishment of a new world order based on justice and equality of all nations."

Chavez said that 11 years ago with the victory of the Bolivarian Revolution in Venezuela, Iran and Venezuela began a campaign which was aimed at establishing a new world order, according to IRNA.

He reiterated his country's support for Tehran in face of the West's imposed sanction pressures and military threats against Iran over its controversial nuclear program.

Iranian Defense Minister Brigadier General Ahmad Vahidi rejected on Wednesday Iran's intention to purchase the S-300 missile system from Venezuela.

"Tehran has no such plans on its agenda for the time being,'" Vahidi told IRNA on the sidelines of a local meeting.

Iran inked a deal with Russia to purchase the S-300 weaponry systems in 2007, however, Russia scrapped plans to deliver S-300 air defense missile systems to Iran as it falls under the UN sanctions, Russian Chief of General Staff Nikolai Makarov said in September.

The S-300 is an advanced mobile missile system which can shoot down aircraft and cruise missiles from up to 150 km away.

On Tuesday, Iranian Minister of Industries and Mines Ali Akbar Mehrabian said that the current trade volume between Iran and Venezuela is about 3.5 billion U.S. dollars, however, both sides are determined to promote it to even higher levels.

Grounds for expansion of economic cooperation in oil, gas, petrochemical, agriculture, transportation, banking and housing are well-prepared between the two countries, IRNA quoted Mehrabian as saying.

Mehrabian made the remarks on the sidelines of Iran-Venezuela Joint Economic Commission which kicked off in Tehran on Tuesday.

He added that Iran and Venezuela so far have signed dozens of MoUs on economic and political cooperation, according to the report.

Iran has launched some 80 Iranian-led industrial and development projects in Venezuela, indicating the booming economic cooperation between the two countries, the minister said.

Seems to e there is alot more going on between VZ and Iran, also on other articles it seems that Colombia and Brazil have great intrest in both VZ and Iran from a economic pov.
As several sources confirmed there are some serious relations with syria and n-korea.
Wich is all nice and good for these nations, but how can these nations trade and build/plan together while there are like 4 or 5 UN sanctions again Iran?
Accoording to wikipedia and other sources incase of a war VZ and Iran will get support from differend sources, in terms of resources and some even in terms of military and economic aid.
Wich is understandable as they got their friends and allies just the way we have them.
However this seems to me like the UN resolutions are just toilet papers, as it does not seem to have any effect upon any of these regimes.
Iam not preaching WOIII or any major conflict but what iam saying is that does the US and the West not make a mistake by allowing VZ and Iran to engage in such far stretching ties with other "anti" us goverments?
Because we all know from the past that even smal nations if given the time can sting like a angry bee.
And with the current things going on in the world does this not speed up the proces for Iran to gain weapons and resources? wich to my understanding is exactly what the UN mandates and such are trying to prevent. :idea2

Beatmaster please provide the web link to the above news article.

 

[SABRE]

Accoording to wikipedia ...

Wikipedia is not a reliable source and very unwelcome here.

... does the US and the West not make a mistake by allowing VZ and Iran to engage in such far stretching ties with other "anti" us goverments?

Iran and VZ are sovereign states with sovereign rights. Its not up to U.S or anyone else to stop them. UNSC perhaps can but there China and Russia will keep windows open for cooperation with these two states.

And with the current things going on in the world does this not speed up the proces for Iran to gain weapons and resources?

My impression is that they want the capability and not the actual bomb. The last thing they would want is to prove Israel and U.S right and bring international isolation upon themselves. My second impression is that current things have actually slowed them down then speed them up.

 

[Beatmaster]

Ohh did i forgot the link? -1 for me lol.
Well here is the LINK to the article

Anyway i understand the sovereign rights part however UN Sanctions limits those rights as Iran did not follow instructions given by the security council.
So sovereign rights or not there are several embargo's that limit the ability to trade with iran.

 

[Feanor]

At the end of the day, if the US does invade there is nothing VZ can buy that would give them a chance. So analyzing their purchases within that perspective (while very interesting) is detached from reality. If VZ did want BM capability, it would be operational level complexes (Tochka, Smerch, Iskander, etc) not strategic weapons with laughable payloads.

I'm also not sure how your article is even relevant. It says nothing about their military relationship, if anything there is strong emphasis on the civilian nature of the agreements they signed. There is also absolutely nothing concrete between the two states. Most of it strikes me as wishful thinking. Finally, if VZ and Iran do develop strong bilateral trade relations, who cares? VZ can already purchase all the shiny toys they want from Russia. And given the willingness of Russian companies to share tech, I don't see anything Iran has to offer.

 

[Beatmaster]

At the end of the day, if the US does invade there is nothing VZ can buy that would give them a chance. So analyzing their purchases within that perspective (while very interesting) is detached from reality. If VZ did want BM capability, it would be operational level complexes (Tochka, Smerch, Iskander, etc) not strategic weapons with laughable payloads.

I'm also not sure how your article is even relevant. It says nothing about their military relationship, if anything there is strong emphasis on the civilian nature of the agreements they signed. There is also absolutely nothing concrete between the two states. Most of it strikes me as wishful thinking. Finally, if VZ and Iran do develop strong bilateral trade relations, who cares? VZ can already purchase all the shiny toys they want from Russia. And given the willingness of Russian companies to share tech, I don't see anything Iran has to offer.

Well thats exactly the point Iran does have nothing mutch to offer, however that does not change the fact that arms and reqular trades/ sales and such stuff is strictly forbidden by UN sanctions, so why is Iran still allowed to buy or sell stuff?
Specially weapons regardless if they are kids toys or not.
And i know each nation has sovereign rights however those are limited by UN sanctions right?
Another thing is that its not about VZ and Iran going against
the west in brute force as well all know that both will not life long enough to see the next sunrise, however they can be a political pain and could upset their direct regions and pressure neightbours, for example the saudies are scared PEEPless:rotfl of teheran (as written here) wich has been on the news several times
Other nations within the regional sphere of Iran are on their guard as they all have their own fears and ideas about what is next.
As Iran and VZ are not able to hurt the US directly but they can strike at US and NATO installations and bases both in South amerika and in the middle east as for example iran has credible amount of meduim range rockets trained on israel and on their direct neightbours as several onlinje sources and the news claims.
So there are some real concerns about this.
The US and the west might feel pretty save knowing that Iran cannot do mutch to hurt them, however the neightbours of Iran might think differend as they are in the direct striking distance of irans military.
See my point? What would happen if Iran starts blasting around? who is going to clean the mess? as without help the direct region is going to have their hands full on iran.
Israel alone is not going to save the day here....as Iran pretty mutch par the israely forces....correct me if wrong....

Anyway even if VZ is going to install weapons on their soil i believe that it should not be allowed period.
As several others said Hugo Chaves will do what ever he can to stick it to the US.
Its better to avoid then to solve, ill guess its better to keep Iran from spreading and it would be better to limit their acces to the outside world, to maintain regional stability so that serious talks can continue so that things finally get fixed, before it all goes bogus....
Noone of us wants war or a conflict...

 

[Spetsznaz]

VZ is losing economic power, not gaining. They have had a negative growth rate for their average annual GDP for the last 4 years and the highest inflation rate in South America. On top of that the rate of capitol investment is negative and continuing to decline.

As for ‘maintaining good relation with the US’, this is a joke. Chavez has never missed a chance to manufacture an opportunity to poke the US in the eye. The only thing in his favor is that Venezuela is not a threat to US interests, so everyone is just content to wait for him to fall. Which, given his growing disillusionment among his supporters may be sooner rather than later.

.

You must have misunderstood.
I said that the best option VZ has from a military standpoint is too gain economic power, I never said that it has a thriving economy which is growing.

I also never said that Chavez is trying to gain better relation with the US, I said it is in VZ best interest to stop poking US in the eye.

 

[My2Cents]

Well thats exactly the point Iran does have nothing mutch to offer, however that does not change the fact that arms and reqular trades/ sales and such stuff is strictly forbidden by UN sanctions, so why is Iran still allowed to buy or sell stuff?
Specially weapons regardless if they are kids toys or not.
And i know each nation has sovereign rights however those are limited by UN sanctions right?
Another thing is that its not about VZ and Iran going against the west in brute force as well all know that both will not life long enough to see the next sunrise, however they can be a political pain and could upset their direct regions and pressure neightbours, for example the saudies are scared PEEPless:rotfl of teheran (as written here) wich has been on the news several times
Other nations within the regional sphere of Iran are on their guard as they all have their own fears and ideas about what is next.
As Iran and VZ are not able to hurt the US directly but they can strike at US and NATO installations and bases both in South amerika and in the middle east as for example iran has credible amount of meduim range rockets trained on israel and on their direct neightbours as several onlinje sources and the news claims.
So there are some real concerns about this.
The US and the west might feel pretty save knowing that Iran cannot do mutch to hurt them, however the neightbours of Iran might think differend as they are in the direct striking distance of irans military.

According to the Israelis Iran has developed the Shahab-5 missile which has a range of 5000 km. This could reach most of Europe from Iran, or the eastern half of the US from Venezuela. The European nations are concerned enough to reverse their position on anti-missile defenses.

Chavez has expressed interest in acquiring these weapons to counter US attacks that he claims are imminent. Venezuela also claims to be starting a nuclear energy industry using Iranian centrifuge technology.

 

[Feanor]

Well thats exactly the point Iran does have nothing mutch to offer, however that does not change the fact that arms and reqular trades/ sales and such stuff is strictly forbidden by UN sanctions, so why is Iran still allowed to buy or sell stuff?
Specially weapons regardless if they are kids toys or not.

Not quite. Actually quite not. The UN regulates but does not forbid these things. There are certainly not UN sanctions forbidding regular trade between states. In fact there aren't any sanctions that stop Iran from selling various conventional arms. The sanctions in this case apply to the ballistic missiles with ranges of iirc over 280km. Nothing stops them from selling AK knock offs.

And i know each nation has sovereign rights however those are limited by UN sanctions right?

Actually not in this case. There is nothing the UN can or will do about trade ties between VZ and Iran, so long as they don't involve a few key critical technologies or materials (NBC stuff, certain missiles, etc.).

Israel alone is not going to save the day here....as Iran pretty mutch par the israely forces....correct me if wrong....

Gladly. You're wrong. The Saudis, Pakistan, and Israel, can all effectively deal with Iran.

Anyway even if VZ is going to install weapons on their soil i believe that it should not be allowed period.

Where do you draw the line?

As several others said Hugo Chaves will do what ever he can to stick it to the US.

A simplistic analysis at best. Chavez is milking anti-US rhetoric, but it can hardly be considered an end in itself.

Its better to avoid then to solve, ill guess its better to keep Iran from spreading and it would be better to limit their acces to the outside world, to maintain regional stability so that serious talks can continue so that things finally get fixed, before it all goes bogus....

What exactly would this entail in practical terms? Keep in mind anything in the UN has to go past reluctant Euros, and flat out uncooperative Russia and China.

 

[SABRE]

Israel alone is not going to save the day here....as Iran pretty mutch par the israely forces....correct me if wrong....

Conventionally Israel is quite superior to Iran. Any direct combat between Iran & Israel is going to be an aerial and Israel perhaps is the most powerful air force in the region.

Gladly. You're wrong. The Saudis, Pakistan, and Israel, can all effectively deal with Iran.

I don't think Pakistan has anything to do with this tangle. It does has some sectarian issues with Iran but not the ones which merit a full scale war or confrontation.

 

[Beatmaster]

Again thx for the solid info.
Well here on the news Iran is being pictured as a unholy evil **** that could do so mutch harm...in short said they are being labelled as ....well you get the idea i think.

So iam nowhere near the position to draw a line, but if its just 1% as serious as you can read on the news and on the internet then imo something should be done about it agree?

And to my understanding the UN did punish iran by some very nasty sanctions wich accoording to the news would hammer their economy and trade options to a near zero point.
But judging from your reply Iran can only smile at the UN and put up the finger as the sanctions seem just a few papers with some fancy words right?

You said that the region can be effective against Iran right?
Then my question is why are they screaming for help? As the news and the net gets flooded with wikileaks and regular news topic's that for example the saudies requesting help as they claim that Iran is to big a danger to deal with.
Just asking as there are so many news pages out there that i personally get confused here.
How would you guys juge this situation and what tactic should be followed to make sure that this is just a political conflict and that it does not become a conflict by arms?

Israel does have a serious airforce and iam not doubting israels capabilities.
Also the saudies seem to have a serious army so they could stand up for them selfs, and its not the Iran army they fear but the meduim range rockets...wich do pose a serious danger to for example the major cities in israel.
Another thing is that Iran does support several rebel groups and they all happen to hate israel wich in case of a serious conflict will or could harm israel.
So just airpower alone will not be enough i think....
Just did read another news topic here in the DT homepage wich states that Iran is mass producing anti ship rockets that could hit capital ships from great ranges.
Iam not saying that Iran is weak or strong but there is obvious more then meets the eye....