I thought New Zealand was all about no offensive capability but more of a defensive and peacekeeping capability. Like with all the fuss caused by the frigates.... we are considering submarines... the main role of which is to destroy other ships!
Compared to Australia, yes, NZ has much, much less "offensive" capabilities and less of a political will to acquire "offensive" armaments etc. One reason for this essentially prioritisation within a limited defence budget e.g. with no clearly defined threat since the end of the Cold War, which has been the basis of NZ political defence planning under the last administration (i.e. no threat so let's peacekeep, to put it simply).
But as the Australian DWP acknowledges and the NZ DWP too albiet a bit more subtly (but noted nonetheless) the dynamics in the wider region have been changing, and we are witnessing a regional arms buildup, especially over these past 10-20 years or so, and it's clearer in the public conciousness now that regional arms building up is occurring around "peaceful NZ". An more assertive China (which we are starting to see some signs) helps with this NZ public perception too. The NZ public may be wanting pavlova's in paradise but one thing is certain, the NZ public don't like bullying, especially in their "back yard".
Times are changing and old assumptions on NZ defence posture are changing too. The next time Labour becomes the next NZ Govt, I cannot see how they can revert back to their peacekeeping mindset (which was based on the end of the Cold War threat and thus redirected the NZDF to support UN approved peacekeeping etc). Even when Labour was in power their defence posture was exposed (incidentally Labour have no show of winning this year's general election, so 2014 will be the earliest they could possibly come to power but that would have to assume they are cohesive which they are not, so I'd be picking it might not be until 2017 if not much later due to internal factional dynamics).
In terms of the fuss of the Frigates, again that issue has mostly been put to bed nowadays. The Frigates (I'm thinking the ANZAC's when proposed in the 80's/90's) as an understatement were victim of political opportunities: it was easy for certain people to attack them as being "expensive and not used for anything" because let's face it, NZ Frigates since the 1950's-1990's exercised and exercised and never contributed to any operational needs (bar the one-off post Falkland arrangement with the UK) which was important for preserving stability in SE Asia & ANZUS etc, but the public couldn't see that when "opportuntists" mounted a concerted communication campaign to subvert their mission by downplaying their reasons why were important in the wider scheme, by focusing on simple concepts such as "never used", "part of US war machine" which entered the public consciousness etc. Since the mid 1990's and to this day, the Frigates have been deployed on missions in the Gulf, East Timor (on war-footing), and now are being considered to be sent on an antipiracy mission to Somalian waters etc. So as far as the public is concerned nowadays, they are useful utilities for NZ to help out internationally etc. National has proposed their sensor/armament upgrades in the latest DWP must proceed as a priority and it didn't raise any major eyelids. Boy have times have changed. Not only that with the OPV's operational for EEZ functions, both the previous Labour and current National adminstrations have clearly stated this will free up the Frigates for more deployments (and the irony is the OPV's, under Labour, to a large extent have "shut-up" the peaceniks, whom used to complain that the Frigates didn't do alot of EEZ work etc).
Lets be really clear about this - the RNZN is not getting or considering Subs - there are so many other capability gaps that need to be filled. Sub capability is way off the current political and fiscal sonar.
I too doubt it will happen, but as said earlier, Australia "might" be talking opportunties and working out at what level NZ is comfortable to contribute to the Collins II programmes (if anything ... it might only be kitchen sinks etc). If there is any truth in the rumour then Australia is naturally trying to entice NZ to join the programme in a more major way, but good luck to Ausgov because as we all know, the guts of the issue is that NZ doesn't spend enough on defence to allow funding to join such projects. Unless Ausgov (etc) can get NZGov to increase defence expenditure then acquiring Collins II isn't likely, even with a Colins I enticement (deja vu, in some respects).
However no-one here (or not many) will know what the current NZGov is thinking in terms of future counterances to the Asian arms buildup (eg DWP won't go there, publically). For NZ, which is only now finding its feet after being left out of the "club" for the past 25 years (eg wikileaks advise full intelligence sharing was resumed in 2009 after change of govt), plus the global financial crisis, the DWP 2010 would not have been an appropriate vehicle (because of timing) to bring up a more aggressive defence posture. Noted that DWP's will be issued every 5 years, so probably in (5 - unlikely?) or 10 years times we may see more posturing relevant to the developments in wider Asia.
Again, times are changing so whilst not ruling anything in, I also wouldn't rule anything out. If NZGov was concerned about future breaches in sovereignty be that economic or presence and thus influence (NZ/SP) then working with Ausgov and RAN on sub coordination would not be a bad idea. If under the ANZAC Force umbrella, NZ contributes to existing Australian sub capabilities (infrastructure, training, support) then the bean counters may be more likely to be supportive. These are early days and any Gov-Gov discussions may not realise anything for another 10 years anyway etc.
Another point, the maritime sphere is the most important to preserve NZ's way of life economically (and this is being emphasised more by National than Labour previously). Whether anything on the sub front eventuates, is moot in that it appears to me anyway, that the RNZN has always had the higher-allied-tech compared to the other services due to the nature of maritime survellience and projection (in the wider allied scheme of things), so I wouldn't be suprised to see more hi-tech future investments in the martime sphere be that naval or air maritime patrol (survellience, datalinking, detection and countering etc).
I can't imagine the NZDF having any resources to commit to operating a new capability like this let alone committing to a future programme. But has anyone else heard this?
