Incident in the Gulf or is this a completely unlikely scenario?

[NICO]

To 1805

2015.......Frustrated by increasingly provocative support for Hezbollah in Lebanon. On 22nd Nov the IAF undertake a deep strike on Iranian Nuclear facilities. Only 3 of the 6 aircraft reached the facility, 3 being shot down by newly upgraded Iranian S400 batteries.

In retaliation the Iranian Navy sows mines in the Straits of Hormuz, which hit a tanker and a Burke class destroyer going to investigate. Although still afloat splinters from airburst guided 155mm rounds disable the main sensors, leaving only the self contained Phalanx to defend the ship .

Warships sent to assist also end up trading shells with the shore batteries and eventually the intensity and accuracy and the threat of anti ship missiles forces the Allies ships to evacuate the crew and abandon the recovery of the ship.

The USN fires 100 Tomahawks, however of a high percent are shot down by well coordinated local air defence system of Misagh 2 and newly acquired Pantsir-S1 & Tor M1 systems.

The Allied forces decide it is necessary to take the fortified islands dominating the Straits, to suppress the shore batteries (guns & missiles), so move a assault force forward. An Iranian Kilo class lying in wait fires 6 torpedoes of which 3 hit the LHA-6 USS America. Excellent damage control saves the ship but the land assault is broken off.
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Don't know what your intentions are with these passages. Maybe you want to write a book or just start a new thread. I like that you seem to take the Iranian side. Am I wrong? Not too many people would do that on such a public forum. So far you have come across as pretty rational, not some crazy person. So these are just a few things that I have noted, maybe they can help you.

1. Why is it always Iran that receives the first blow? I understand why but could there be a scenario where Iran takes the first shot instead of US or Israel attacking first? Could US or Israel provoke Iran to do such a thing? Could there be such a scenario where it would be advantageous to Iran to attack first? Can't really think of one, haven't found any but that doesn't mean they don't exist. I would also try to figure out a way to put the Middle East on my side, turn public opinion against SA or Kuwait. Definitely include political and economical moves in your scenario, not just military ones.

2. I would say the biggest problem for Iran is they are going against the US and Israeli military that have far more proven capability and numbers than Iran's conventional forces. Generally, going straight up against them would be defeating. I think you need to insert more asymmetric warfare in your scenarios. Think hijacking a tanker and sinking it in Qatar to slow down operations. Are they any cruise ships in the Gulf? All kinds of bad things to do with that. Why not shoot cruise missiles towards port or refining plants? I liked your idea with 155mm rounds but it needs more work, more surprise. Why not attach them to speed boats and send 20 or 30 of them towards US ships? You might not sink a Burke but definitively ruin Captain's day.

3. Mines are excellent asymmetric weapons, could Iran use torpedoes the same way? I don't think Iran has CAPTOR capabilities but could Iran have something similar in 2015?

4.Could Iran retaliate on US or European soil? You start with Hezbollah but then we never hear again about them. What are their moves once conflict between Israel/Iran starts? What about some surprises from them? What about Syria and Hamas?

5. Last but not least, assuming nothing major changes, Iran will still be an important supplier of oil and gas to China. I really think you should include them, do you think China in 2015 will just stand by and watch Iran be attacked?

Hope this helps you and contributes to the thread,nico

 

[lopez]

2. I would say the biggest problem for Iran is they are going against the US and Israeli military that have far more proven capability and numbers than Iran's conventional forces. Generally, going straight up against them would be defeating. I think you need to insert more asymmetric warfare in your scenarios. Think hijacking a tanker and sinking it in Qatar to slow down operations. Are they any cruise ships in the Gulf? All kinds of bad things to do with that. Why not shoot cruise missiles towards port or refining plants? I liked your idea with 155mm rounds but it needs more work, more surprise. Why not attach them to speed boats and send 20 or 30 of them towards US ships? You might not sink a Burke but definitively ruin Captain's day.

what do you want the Iranians to do with the 155mm shells?

are you suggesting a suicide attack?

if so that would result (ideally for the ship) in the annihilation of the speed boats by close close in weapons systems and small arms fire and anything else the ship can bring to bear on them, all you would do is waste boats people and ammo...

although i think if hostilities were a possibility i think the ship would be alert and unlikely to be alone.

or if you meant that you want to mount to mount 155mm artillery pieces to speed boats i don't actually think that is possible...

http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikiped...n-deployed.JPG/300px-M-71-cannon-deployed.JPG


http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikiped...4_howitzer.jpg/300px-USArmy_M114_howitzer.jpg


http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/b/be/GHN-45rear.jpg/300px-GHN-45rear.jpg

http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/0/05/Haubits_77.jpg/300px-Haubits_77.jpg

http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikiped...itzer_(Impi).jpg/300px-G5_howitzer_(Impi).jpg

imagine strapping any of these to speed boat.

 

[Waylander]

As for Iran making the first move, I highly doubt that. They have nothing to gain from slugging it out face to face and striking first would also turn world opinion against them.

Their aim has to be to covertly hurt their adversaries while avoiding a direct confrontation.
And right now they could do much more than they are actually doing.

Just imagine what more MANPADs and truckloads of ATGMs and modern mines in concert with instructors and special forces would do to ISAF and OEF forces in Afghanistan?

But as this might provoke an open move against them they are not doing it. For now...

So far Iran seems to act pretty rational. Open up first against the US or Israel wouldn't be rational at all.

 

[1805]

what do you want the Iranians to do with the 155mm shells?

are you suggesting a suicide attack?

if so that would result (ideally for the ship) in the annihilation of the speed boats by close close in weapons systems and small arms fire and anything else the ship can bring to bear on them, all you would do is waste boats people and ammo...

although i think if hostilities were a possibility i think the ship would be alert and unlikely to be alone.

or if you meant that you want to mount to mount 155mm artillery pieces to speed boats i don't actually think that is possible...

http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikiped...n-deployed.JPG/300px-M-71-cannon-deployed.JPG


http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikiped...4_howitzer.jpg/300px-USArmy_M114_howitzer.jpg


http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/b/be/GHN-45rear.jpg/300px-GHN-45rear.jpg

http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/0/05/Haubits_77.jpg/300px-Haubits_77.jpg

http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikiped...itzer_(Impi).jpg/300px-G5_howitzer_(Impi).jpg

imagine strapping any of these to speed boat.

Would not this be the perfect opportunity for the LCS concept, the two helicopters would take out the speed boats, any FAC, and the 57mm cannon would quickly finish off anything that did get through. RAM, Phalanx and 57mm providing the sort of short range defence against any missile attack likely in confined waters, where long range is less important?

 

[StevoJH]

The fact that they can build a submarine (I did say it was likely to be basic) indicates they are more capable than most countries, as do other areas of reverse engineering, let alone their nuclear and missile programmes.

I did say the sub attack was not in the Straits.

Any University engineering department or even a lot of Commercial Engineering workshops could build a fairly basic submarine if they have the space to build it and a method of transporting it to the water.

In fact, a number of engineering workshops in Europe have built submarines. Not to mention that a fully functioning submarine was just captured in South America not long ago, built in the middle of no-where by drug runners.

 

[1805]

Any University engineering department or even a lot of Commercial Engineering workshops could build a fairly basic submarine if they have the space to build it and a method of transporting it to the water.

In fact, a number of engineering workshops in Europe have built submarines. Not to mention that a fully functioning submarine was just captured in South America not long ago, built in the middle of no-where by drug runners.

You don't see their engineering capability as any indication of military capability?

 

[swerve]

2015..........
In retaliation the Iranian Navy sows mines in the Straits of Hormuz, ...

Thus cutting off almost all Irans own exports, & its ability to pay for imports . . . .

 

[AMERICANMAN]

Thus cutting off almost all Irans own exports, & its ability to pay for imports . . . .

Iran planted mines in the gulf during the Iraq Iran war, How did that work out?

U.S. responds to Iranian-placed mines in Persian Gulf
US Department of State Bulletin, June, 1988
1234Next ..WHITE HOUSE STATEMENT, APR. 18, 1988

Acting under his authority as Commander in Chief the President has directed U.S. forces at 1:00 a.m. Eastern Daylight Time today to strike Iranian military targets in the southern Persian Gulf.

Our forces attacked oil platforms at Sirri and Sassan in the southern gulf These platforms are used as command and control radar stations for the Iranian military. The attacks are underway at this time.

These actions were taken in response to Iran's recent resumption of mine-laying in international waters and its mine attack on the U.S.S. Samuel B. Roberts. The Government of Iran has been repeatedly warned about the consequences of such hostile acts.


Our actions were taken following consultations with the congressional leadership and after informing friendly governments. They are designed and intended to deter further Iranian mining. They represent a measured response to Iran's unlawful use of force against the United States and to Iran's numerous violations of the rights of other nonbelligerents. And they constitute a lawful exercise of the U.S. inherent right of self-defense, under Article 51 of the UN Charter Appropriate notification of such actions is being provided to the President of the UN Security Council.

We have repeatedly told Iran that we do not desire military confrontation. But the Government of Iran should understand that we will protect our ships and our interests against unprovoked attacks. We urgently seek an end to tensions in the region and to the IranIraq wan This would benefit the people of both nations who have suffered so much from the brutal conflict. We urge Iran to accept Security Council Resolution 598 and to agree to its rapid and comprehensive implementation. Iran has nothing to gain from continuation of the wan The Department of Defense will brief later this morning as we have more details come in. We are receiving details on a continuing basis at this time.
U.S. responds to Iranian-placed mines in Persian Gulf | US Department of State Bulletin | Find Articles at BNET

Done that been there.

 

[Ozzy Blizzard]

Thus cutting off almost all Irans own exports, & its ability to pay for imports . . . .

To be fair interdicting that SLOC is one of Iran’s major counters to US military power. Disrupting oil flow through the straights, even for a matter of weeks, would create a significant price shock - all during a shaky economic recovery. Do you really think Tehran would hesitate to act when facing a US military threat? That counter is probably the only thing which has prevented US/Israeli military action to date. Tehran can survive without exports - it would likely face that situation anyway during a conflict with the US - but Washington will not find large economic disruption acceptable if its core interests are not threatened.

 

[StevoJH]

You don't see their engineering capability as any indication of military capability?

Yes and no.

Yes engineering capacity is important.

But what is Iran doing that most 1st world nations around the world cannot do?

 

[1805]

Yes and no.

Yes engineering capacity is important.

But what is Iran doing that most 1st world nations around the world cannot do?

I wasn't saying they could do things 1st world countries couldn't do. I was merely saying that this capability indicated that they could probably maintain 3 Kilos.

 

[StevoJH]

I wasn't saying they could do things 1st world countries couldn't do. I was merely saying that this capability indicated that they could probably maintain 3 Kilos.

But can they crew them? How well trained are their crews?

How are the Russians with spare parts? A "reasonably" advanced submarine like a Kilo would be a lot harder to engineer and maintained then something like their mini-subs.

When talking about the Collins class and Collins class replacement, its often been commented that the technology involved in designing and manufacturing a tier one submarine, whether conventional or nuclear, is only matched by the engineering, design skill and manufacturing tolerances required by vehicles such as the space shuttle.

Do I think the Iranians could build a Kilo class or more advanced submarine from scratch? No.

 

[Juramentado]

I wasn't saying they could do things 1st world countries couldn't do. I was merely saying that this capability indicated that they could probably maintain 3 Kilos.

There's a big practical difference between some engineering students being able to build a working submersible as a lab experiement that might survive a hundred foot depth and keeping an old Soviet SS in working condition, never mind battle-ready. There is nothing in open-source Intel today that sustains your observation. EDITED TO ADD: The SPSS that are used in drug-smuggling do not even come close to an old but quite competent and maneuverable SS like the Kilo - you're talking about a drug smuggler boat whose main purpose is to hide and deliver cargo. A Kilo in good condition is a warship - it's designed to go deep, maneuver quickly and nimbly and make hundreds of dives, with the prerequisite stresses on it's pressure hulls. There is no comparison in the two, and the build and mission of each vessel makes that clear.

Given the fact that the new Russia views Islamic fundamentalism as equally a threat as the West does, the chances that there are parts delivery between the two nations in exchange for hard currency seems very low. With that, in order to keep something working, you need to reverse engineer consumables and replacement parts from scratch. It's likely, and this is based on known instances of Western equipment falling into hostile hands and attempting to be kept up - those subs are missing a lot of subsystems because they're unservicable. Sure, they may be able to go to sea, but the batteries are at 60% of factory charging capacity, sonar and fire control may be intermittent or even completely unavailable. No one's tested the torpedos that came with the sub or even fired a water shot through the tubes. The pressure hulls are well past the integrity check dates that characterize a vessel's lifetime.

That's not to say neccessity is the mother of invention - it's entirely possible that they've kept some of the subs up, and through third parties and shadow foreign sales managed to get some replacement parts. But that's all a scratch team effort - it doesn't replace a full-blown maintenance and training program. When push comes to shove, will they be ready when the infidels come sailing over the horizon? Smart money says no.

 

[justone]

Given the fact that the new Russia views Islamic fundamentalism as equally a threat as the West does, the chances that there are parts delivery between the two nations in exchange for hard currency seems very low. With that, in order to keep something working, you need to reverse engineer consumables and replacement parts from scratch. It's likely, and this is based on known instances of Western equipment falling into hostile hands and attempting to be kept up - those subs are missing a lot of subsystems because they're unserviceable. Sure, they may be able to go to sea, but the batteries are at 60% of factory charging capacity, sonar and fire control may be intermittent or even completely unavailable. No one's tested the torpedos that came with the sub or even fired a water shot through the tubes. The pressure hulls are well past the integrity check dates that characterize a vessel's lifetime.

That's not to say neccessity is the mother of invention - it's entirely possible that they've kept some of the subs up, and through third parties and shadow foreign sales managed to get some replacement parts. But that's all a scratch team effort - it doesn't replace a full-blown maintenance and training program. When push comes to shove, will they be ready when the infidels come sailing over the horizon? Smart money says no.

I get your point. If Iranian can keep a fleet of F-14 going for 30 years without American assist that a hell of achievement. American equipment is more advanced than Russian that is a fact. You have to keep this in mind I know Submarine are different from jets. They find a way to keep the subs going for a while that why you don't hear them talk to bad about Russian if you notice in Iranian press conferences. They're getting spare part for now I dont how long that will last. Russia didnt give the Iranian the S-300's yet. My point is that if they can find a way to keep U.S. equipment going trust me they can find a find to keep Russian equipment going.

I was blessed to be able see Russian equipment and it not like American equipment. Iranian seems to find way to do things on it own it has no choice since it can't get import in arms. Like I said before everyone with a good heart dont want see this play out but the chances of a conflict with Iran is increasing daily. Iran is not really ready for this they will be forced to be ready cause they will have no choice.

If you take a look at Iran-Iraq War. Iraq attack Iran at the right time cause the Iranian military was not prepared there seniors commanders were not available they came over that. What a hell of achievement for any military in the world. The Iranian military can adopt to a grave situation that was proving in the 1980's. The case of what "1805" said in the beginning could happen but not like he said but close to it. I dont know of too many military in the world that took American equipment and kept it going without American assistance Im talking about a developing country not a major power like U.K ,France, and Germany.

[Mod Edit: Fixed formatting. Please learn how to use the 'quote' function properly and kindly use paragraphs (to increase readability), rather than a wall of text. You should know all this by now.]

 

[Grim901]

Important to note in this scenario that closing Hormuz would not just provoke a reaction from the US. It'd cut off vital oil supplies to Europe and almost every other powerful country on the planet. It'd be a stupid move that only serves to provoke a larger reaction, from more countries. It is also one of the few things that may actually cause the Gulf nations (who rely entirely on those oil exports) to scuff up their shiny high-tech hardware.

 

[AMERICANMAN]

Important to note in this scenario that closing Hormuz would not just provoke a reaction from the US. It'd cut off vital oil supplies to Europe and almost every other powerful country on the planet. It'd be a stupid move that only serves to provoke a larger reaction, from more countries. It is also one of the few things that may actually cause the Gulf nations (who rely entirely on those oil exports) to scuff up their shiny high-tech hardware.

Good point while only about 16 percent of the USA oil comes from the middleast, 45 percent of the EU oil comes from the middle east and over 90 percent of Japans Oil comes from the middle east. Its not the rich countries that get hurt that much,,, say price of oil doubles,,most americans can afford five dollars a gallon for gas., but imagine what happens in poor countries.

 

[1805]

But can they crew them? How well trained are their crews?

How are the Russians with spare parts? A "reasonably" advanced submarine like a Kilo would be a lot harder to engineer and maintained then something like their mini-subs.

When talking about the Collins class and Collins class replacement, its often been commented that the technology involved in designing and manufacturing a tier one submarine, whether conventional or nuclear, is only matched by the engineering, design skill and manufacturing tolerances required by vehicles such as the space shuttle.

Do I think the Iranians could build a Kilo class or more advanced submarine from scratch? No.

These boats are 13-18 years old, so the Iranians have been operating them for some time. They are mid production of quite a large and generally reliable class. The Russians have been freely exporting equipment to Iran for some time. Only fairly recently has there been issues with the S300 (because of the nature the system) and general sanction? The Kilos are fairly common unlike F14s so they probably don't have problems sourcing spares or manufacturing. So I think the irresponsible money would be on assuming they don't work,......it would not be a good idea to start planning the countermeasures as 6 of their supercavitation torpedo are heading towards an LHA?

I wouldn't put to much stall by that BAe sales talk about Astutes as complex as the Space Shuttle (never heard it referred to the Collins). We Brits often big up the achievement of overcoming failures that could have been seen coming had anyone been looking.

What are you going on about the Iranians building a Kilo from scratch....who said that?

 

[1805]

Good point while only about 16 percent of the USA oil comes from the middleast, 45 percent of the EU oil comes from the middle east and over 90 percent of Japans Oil comes from the middle east. Its not the rich countries that get hurt that much,,, say price of oil doubles,,most americans can afford five dollars a gallon for gas., but imagine what happens in poor countries.

The USN does not need the help of the rest of the World to bomb Iran back to the dark ages, morale support maybe? Sowing a few mines to catch a warship, would lead to a heavy response but very unlikely to lead to all out war, neither side want this.

If they wanted to be really provocative they could say they were merely banning Western naval vessels?

Oh and I think we are already paying c$8 a gallon for petrol in the UK

 

[Grim901]

The USN does not need the help of the rest of the World to bomb Iran back to the dark ages, morale support maybe? Sowing a few mines to catch a warship, would lead to a heavy response but very unlikely to lead to all out war, neither side want this.

If they wanted to be really provocative they could say they were merely banning Western naval vessels?

The USN wouldn't need help, but they'd get it. The same could be said of the Iraq and Afghan conflicts. And yes the response would be heavy, but I doubt anyone is thinking an invasion would occur because of it. And mines don't discriminate, a ship is a ship. Saying they are only meant for warships wouldn't fly, you'd just get carrier battle groups doing everything necessary to stop the mine laying and protect the minesweepers and civilian vessels.

And the Iranians don't own the Straits, they couldn't do that without infringing on the sovereignty of it's neighbours.

I'd say that Astute (or any other modern SSN) and Space shuttle are pretty good comparisons. Both are extremely complex machines designed to operate under incredibly harsh conditions. SSNs have a nuclear reactor on board for christ's sake, they aren't exactly simple machines.

In order to completely maintain a system means an ability to create every component necessary basically and to know how it all slots together, so if you can maintain it fully on your own it should logically mean that you can build one from scratch. I never meant that the Kilos aren't operational, just that their operational effectiveness will not be 100%, because some parts the Iranians cannot maintain well alone.

 

[Bonza]

I wouldn't put to much stall by that BAe sales talk about Astutes as complex as the Space Shuttle (never heard it referred to the Collins). We Brits often big up the achievement of overcoming failures that could have been seen coming had anyone been looking.

FYI, here's a quote from From Collins to Force 2030: The Challenge of the Future Submarine - Royal Australian Navy

Submarines are extraordinarily complex systems. For example, each Collins Class Submarine has over 3,800,000 parts, 75 kilometres of cable, 200,000 on-board connections, 23.5 kilometres of pipe, 14,000 pipe welds and 34.5 kilometres of pipe welding. This complexity is akin to building a space shuttle.