Crusader2000
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Considering the rapid growth of the PLAAF. What mix of fighters should the JASDF field to counter future threats?
JASDF Mix?
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Crusader2000
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What would be the advantage of a mixed force of Lightnings and Typhoons?
Typhoons can be in service earlier, enabling a prompt replacement of older aircraft as they reach the ends of their lives. Japan can get full access to Typhoon software & hardware, with the right to customise them freely & install Japanese equipment (e.g. a new Japanese AESA radar) at will.
In the event of a problem grounding one type, Japan will have another type still operational.
F-35 might facilitate the relatively low-key acquisition, via F-35B, of a shipborne fixed-wing fighter force. It could be better for first day of war strikes against critical targets such as ballistic missile launch sites, & other hard targets.
In the event of a problem grounding one type, Japan will have another type still operational.
F-35 might facilitate the relatively low-key acquisition, via F-35B, of a shipborne fixed-wing fighter force. It could be better for first day of war strikes against critical targets such as ballistic missile launch sites, & other hard targets.
Crusader2000
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The F-35 will very likely enter service with the JASDF at some point and maybe even the JMSDF. While, you make some worthwhile arguments. I don't see them as a stronger case vs a single F-35 Fleet. Thats just my opinion. Which, is no reflection on the excellent "Typhoon".
Time of replacement is a strong point all on it's own.
The JASDF need a replacement for their Phantoms and they need it ASAP.
Customizing imported systems has always been high on the wishlist of Japan. One just has to look at their F-15s, Kongos, AWACS, etc.
The same applies for being able to build and asemble the imported systems in Japan.
Japan wants to retain a nearly fully independent defense industry which might ramp up production all on it's own if the need arises. This is the reason for them building many small and expensive batches of their own equipment while the foreign stuff is build and customized in Japan.
And having to ground an entire fleet of one type of aircraft may very well happen. Just look at the US and their recent F-15 grounding.
With a 2 type fleet they are able to work around such a grounding.
With just one type their air warfare capabilities are severely hampered or they have to take a higher risk and may lose more aircrafts (and possibly pilots).
A two aircraft fleet with so different but excellent fighters is also going to cause a much bigger headache for any adversary as he has to plan for and cope with two totally different systems all with their own advantages and disadvantages.
The JASDF need a replacement for their Phantoms and they need it ASAP.
Customizing imported systems has always been high on the wishlist of Japan. One just has to look at their F-15s, Kongos, AWACS, etc.
The same applies for being able to build and asemble the imported systems in Japan.
Japan wants to retain a nearly fully independent defense industry which might ramp up production all on it's own if the need arises. This is the reason for them building many small and expensive batches of their own equipment while the foreign stuff is build and customized in Japan.
And having to ground an entire fleet of one type of aircraft may very well happen. Just look at the US and their recent F-15 grounding.
With a 2 type fleet they are able to work around such a grounding.
With just one type their air warfare capabilities are severely hampered or they have to take a higher risk and may lose more aircrafts (and possibly pilots).
A two aircraft fleet with so different but excellent fighters is also going to cause a much bigger headache for any adversary as he has to plan for and cope with two totally different systems all with their own advantages and disadvantages.
Crusader2000
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Not putting all of your eggs in one basket always has merit. Yet, I don't see the Japanese buying non-American. (at least fighters) Plus, the fact in another couple of decades unmanned aircraft maybe the norm.
So, personally I could see the F-35 in JASDF Service. Replacing first the F-4's and then F-15's. Which, could see a F-2 Replacement being unmanned with something like projected X-47. Of course that is way in the future. Its more guess work than anything based in reality.
Scorpion82
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Well the F-35 won't be available when the JASDF has to retire its F-4s. That would leave a fighter gap for quite some time and I don't think Japan is really interested in such a gap. Furthermore the new japanese government doesn't seem to be so much orientated towards the US as were previous governments and the Typhoon would be ideal both operationally and economically. There would be great benefits for the japanese Industry which can't be discarded and as the JASDF is primarily looking at a capable air defence fighter/interceptor Typhoon is a logical and good choice.
Crusader2000
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Oh, I disagree as the F-35 could be made available with in the next ten years. Also, if the JASDF needs a small number of aircraft as a stop gap before the F-35's come on line. They could just produce more F-2's. Which, has been recently discussed. (Like the RAAF and USN did with the Super Hornet)
Further, Japan's National Defense is firmly tied to its relationship with the US. As they are very well aware than Europe isn't going to drop everything to come to there Aid.. In an event of a Major Conflict in Southeast Asia.
I would add that the F-35 Version of the F-35A and F-35B are ideal for Japan. Beside operating the same type of aircraft as the majority of its Allies. The F-35A can loiter for long periods over Japanese Air Space and totally Stealthy at that. While, the F-35B can operate from remote sites and even ships.
Regarding the RAAF and USN, that's not really how it worked. The USN agreed to let us step in to their existing production run in order to get our Supers more quickly - so it was an existing, and a large, production line. For the F-2 however I believe you'd have to start up the entire production line again, as from what I know production stopped a few years ago.
Grand Danois
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The youngest F-4 in Japanese service is 28 years old with a probable average age of 30 or more.
JASDF can't wait for the JSF to arrive. A qualified guess would be that replacements need to begin to arrive within 3 years.
The two aircraft that are in play would be the Typhoon or the F-15.
And perhaps to the detriment of posters who like the F-15, I'd clearly consider the Typhoon the better option of the two.
The two ifs, is that F-15 production in Japan could be done on existing tooling, and then the relationship with the U.S.
But the JSF cannot make it within the time constraints.
JASDF can't wait for the JSF to arrive. A qualified guess would be that replacements need to begin to arrive within 3 years.
The two aircraft that are in play would be the Typhoon or the F-15.
And perhaps to the detriment of posters who like the F-15, I'd clearly consider the Typhoon the better option of the two.
The two ifs, is that F-15 production in Japan could be done on existing tooling, and then the relationship with the U.S.
But the JSF cannot make it within the time constraints.
The F-2 is no option for follow-on orders. Its ridiculously expensive for what it offers. The procurement of new foreign systems, from the US or Europe is a more viable option under any circumstances.
As was pointed out, there is a new government in Japan, and it differs with the US on quite some significant points. It wont put the strategic affiliation of Japan at risk, but a partial buy of Europan aircraft wont do that anyway. In fact the US these days have a very strong incentive to keep the Japanese at their side as the other way around, for reasons primarily concerning NK and China of course. Therefore this relationship cannot be strained easily by the Japanese following somewhat different procurement policies compared to what they did in the past. The budgetary situation in Japan is very problematic, to put it mildly. Therefore it seems imperative to also get a weapon system, that can be customised significantly in order to maximise Japanese involvement and benefits. In this regard the Eurofighter cannot be beaten by any US system.
As was pointed out, there is a new government in Japan, and it differs with the US on quite some significant points. It wont put the strategic affiliation of Japan at risk, but a partial buy of Europan aircraft wont do that anyway. In fact the US these days have a very strong incentive to keep the Japanese at their side as the other way around, for reasons primarily concerning NK and China of course. Therefore this relationship cannot be strained easily by the Japanese following somewhat different procurement policies compared to what they did in the past. The budgetary situation in Japan is very problematic, to put it mildly. Therefore it seems imperative to also get a weapon system, that can be customised significantly in order to maximise Japanese involvement and benefits. In this regard the Eurofighter cannot be beaten by any US system.
This "next ten years"-issue is exactly the problem and the reason why Japan considers an interim procurement. They do not have ten years time so wait what happens. The F-4 basically need replacements yesterday.
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Crusader2000
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Incorrect..............The F-2 will be in production until 2011 or beyond.
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Sorry, you will have to translate unless you can read Japanese.
Date: Aug 20, 2009
Quote:
The amber lights have in continuation of domestic fighter plane production. Because 2011, procurement schedule of the close support fighter “F2” by Air Self Defense Force ends before, American Lockheed Martin who produces the portion and the like of the main wing the policy of closing the line even during this month is set. The additional order of F2 becomes difficult, means that also production at the Mitsubishi Heavy Industries, Ltd. which assemble the fuselage ends in 11. Assuming that the FX which is in the midst of selecting (FX) it could recognize domestic license production after 18. From the fact that it becomes considerable blank, Mitsubishi Heavy Industries and the like sees “maintenance of production system becomes difficult”,
Indeed? My apologies - the information I was reading indicated the production line finished around the 2006-2007 mark.
Crusader2000
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The Japanese seem to disagree with your accessment. As they put off the decision to replace the F-4's last year. Just recently they started looking once again. Thought most of the focus appears to be on the F-35.Other nations still operate F-4's that are older yet.
Even the Typhoon couldn't be operational in three years. Especially, with the require Japanese Content.
Neither type is really a viable option in "my opinion". As I don't see Japan buying European. At least not Fighter Types. For both Political and Strategic Reasons. The F-15 is already in service and is becoming obsolete. Both are non-starters.........Though the F-15 could be bought as a stop gap until the F-35 becomes available. Yet, it would be very expensive to re-start production. Which, gets back to the F-2. Which, has higher Japanese Content and is still in production.
While, the Typhoon maybe a little more capable fighter than the current F-15CJ Eagle. Both are likely to be no better than future models of the Flanker and inferior to the forthcoming J-XX (J-14?)
Personally, I don't see Japan re-starting F-15 Production. Especially, with the F-2 line still open. Also, remember the F-4's need to be replaced first. Which, the F-2 is ideally suited for in the strike fighter role. The current F-15 Fleet is not in immediate danger. So, it can wait for the F-35.
Grand Danois
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Other nations still operate F-4's that are older yet.
Apart from Iran and possibly Greece? Untrue. And these other operators are looking for replacements too. E.g. most of the Turkish airframes are zeroed and the rest are using them as second and third line jets. So no cigar.
Even the Typhoon couldn't be operational in three years. Especially, with the require Japanese Content.
Indeed EADS could. Look to SA for an example.
Neither type is really a viable option in "my opinion". As I don't see Japan buying European. At least not Fighter Types. For both Political and Strategic Reasons. The F-15 is already in service and is becoming obsolete. Both are non-starters.........Though the F-15 could be bought as a stop gap until the F-35 becomes available. Yet, it would be very expensive to re-start production. Which, gets back to the F-2. Which, has higher Japanese Content and is still in production.
Except that it is a woefully poor interceptor - it's essentially a marstriker.
While, the Typhoon maybe a little more capable fighter than the current F-15CJ Eagle. Both are likely to be no better than future models of the Flanker and inferior to the forthcoming J-XX (J-14?)
We disagree here. But won't discuss this diversion.
Personally, I don't see Japan re-starting F-15 Production. Especially, with the F-2 line still open. Also, remember the F-4's need to be replaced first. Which, the F-2 is ideally suited for in the strike fighter role. The current F-15 Fleet is not in immediate danger. So, it can wait for the F-35.
The Japanese need interceptors to replace jets in interceptor sqns. Not strikers.
The Japanese seem to disagree with your accessment. As they put off the decision to replace the F-4's last year. Just recently they started looking once again. Thought most of the focus appears to be on the F-35.
Playing the usual games. As the need draws more urgent, they'll be forced to make decision.
And as a mod: use quotes functionality properly or I'll delete your posts!
Apart from Iran and possibly Greece? Untrue. And these other operators are looking for replacements too. E.g. most of the Turkish airframes are zeroed and the rest are using them as second and third line jets. So no cigar.
Even the Typhoon couldn't be operational in three years. Especially, with the require Japanese Content.
Indeed EADS could. Look to SA for an example.
Neither type is really a viable option in "my opinion". As I don't see Japan buying European. At least not Fighter Types. For both Political and Strategic Reasons. The F-15 is already in service and is becoming obsolete. Both are non-starters.........Though the F-15 could be bought as a stop gap until the F-35 becomes available. Yet, it would be very expensive to re-start production. Which, gets back to the F-2. Which, has higher Japanese Content and is still in production.
Except that it is a woefully poor interceptor - it's essentially a marstriker.
While, the Typhoon maybe a little more capable fighter than the current F-15CJ Eagle. Both are likely to be no better than future models of the Flanker and inferior to the forthcoming J-XX (J-14?)
We disagree here. But won't discuss this diversion.
Personally, I don't see Japan re-starting F-15 Production. Especially, with the F-2 line still open. Also, remember the F-4's need to be replaced first. Which, the F-2 is ideally suited for in the strike fighter role. The current F-15 Fleet is not in immediate danger. So, it can wait for the F-35.
The Japanese need interceptors to replace jets in interceptor sqns. Not strikers.
The Japanese seem to disagree with your accessment. As they put off the decision to replace the F-4's last year. Just recently they started looking once again. Thought most of the focus appears to be on the F-35.
Playing the usual games. As the need draws more urgent, they'll be forced to make decision.
And as a mod: use quotes functionality properly or I'll delete your posts!
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I don't get how you can dismiss the timetable completely.
You say that the F-35 will be available within 10 years and on the other hand you say that the Typhoon won't be operational at short notice.
Do you think that the F-35 is going to be operational immediately even if Japan gets slots in 10 years? The JSF needs an implemention phase just like any other fighter.
The Typhoon could start production nearly immediately and I bet the member countries would be happy to postpone some of their current slots for a Japanese order while a line in Japan is constructed.
You also completely dismiss the fact that Japan is not going to be able to customize the JSF in any way while they may put everything they want into the Typhoon.
As Grand Denois said the F-2 is far away from being ideal. It is hoefully expensive for the capabilities it delivers. It has nearly no more growth potential and was never intended to be an interceptor. But that's what the JASDF need.
And I also don't see that the US is going to let Japan down in times of crisis just because they bought a couple of Typhoons (and F-35s later...).
Or do you think the US is abandoning the Brits because they also employ domestic and other foreign systems?
The Japanese may have loved to get the F-22 as it would fullfill their needs perfectly. But they won't get it and so they have to make a decision.
And this decision can't be made in 10 years.
You say that the F-35 will be available within 10 years and on the other hand you say that the Typhoon won't be operational at short notice.
Do you think that the F-35 is going to be operational immediately even if Japan gets slots in 10 years? The JSF needs an implemention phase just like any other fighter.
The Typhoon could start production nearly immediately and I bet the member countries would be happy to postpone some of their current slots for a Japanese order while a line in Japan is constructed.
You also completely dismiss the fact that Japan is not going to be able to customize the JSF in any way while they may put everything they want into the Typhoon.
As Grand Denois said the F-2 is far away from being ideal. It is hoefully expensive for the capabilities it delivers. It has nearly no more growth potential and was never intended to be an interceptor. But that's what the JASDF need.
And I also don't see that the US is going to let Japan down in times of crisis just because they bought a couple of Typhoons (and F-35s later...).
Or do you think the US is abandoning the Brits because they also employ domestic and other foreign systems?
The Japanese may have loved to get the F-22 as it would fullfill their needs perfectly. But they won't get it and so they have to make a decision.
And this decision can't be made in 10 years.
Crusader2000
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Well, Japan did in fact put of the planned replacement of the F-4's just last year. So, they obviously didn't consider its replacement as critical.
[The Japanese are not going to purchase any "fighter" totally off shelf. So, I standby "my statement".
Sorry, the F-35 is going to replace the F-4's at first in a Strike Fighter Role. Which, it is ideally suited. Regardless, the F-35 has Excellent Thrust to Weight, Sensors, and Weapons. So, I see no reason why I couldn't perform well in a AIR Defense Role. Just as many F-16's and F/A-18's do today.
[Really, how is this a diversion??? Clearly, any replacement for the current F-4 and F-15 Fleets in the JASDF. Would have to consider its future opponents. Which, in the case of Japan. Would likely come from China and Russia.
Personally, I don't see Japan re-starting F-15 Production. Especially, with the F-2 line still open. Also, remember the F-4's need to be replaced first. Which, the F-2 is ideally suited for in the strike fighter role. The current F-15 Fleet is not in immediate danger. So, it can wait for the F-35.
The Japanese need interceptors to replace jets in interceptor sqns. Not strikers.
Sorry, using that "Striker" term won't wash here. As "Striker" is just a short term for "Strike Fighter". Which, are often used in the Fighter Role. Which, today often includes types like F-16's. F/A-18's, Mig-29's, Mirage 2000. Typhoon, Rafale, etc. etc.
Regardless, the current requirement stated by the Japanese is for a F-4 Replacement. Not a pure interceptor type.
As a matter of fact as long as you bring up the subject. The F-22 is an Air Superiority Fighter and not a Pure Interceptor. Its all about Multi-Role Types.
The Japanese seem to disagree with your assessment. As they put off the decision to replace the F-4's last year. Just recently they started looking once again. Thought most of the focus appears to be on the F-35.
Playing the usual games. As the need draws more urgent, they'll be forced to make decision.
And as a mod: use quotes functionality properly or I'll delete your posts!
Clearly, the Japanese can't wait forever and will have to make a decision soon! So, I guess we finally agree on something.
BTW I am hardly playing games. I am simply expressing my own personal opinion. (which is what the forum is all about!) Please, feel free to express your own and provide as many counter points as you wish.
Lastly, I am likely using the quote functionality incorrectly? Yet, I am hardly doing so on purpose! Maybe you would consider as a "Moderator". Sending me a PM and explaining the correct method. Instead of threatening to delete my posts.
Just a thought........Crusader2000
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Yes, Japan will have to get on the ball soon. As it will be at least a good decade before anything comes down the line. That is unless Japan decides soon to just purchase more F-2's as a Stop Gap. Which, is likely in my opinion. As it adds jobs to the Japanese Economy and is the only viable short-term solution.
"[A]t least a good decade" is probably true for F-35, but certainly not Typhoon, which could begin deliveries rather soon. The lines are running at less than capacity, component manufacturers can ramp up production, & some early stop-gap deliveries could be diverted from production slots currently reserved for Italy & maybe the UK. A significant number could be in service within 5 years.
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