Current state of Russian Air Force?

[SkolZkiy]

The first flight of a prototype PAK FA is now estimated to take place sometime in the first few
months of 2010. The Centre for Analysis of Strategies and Technologies (Moscow) deputy head
Konstantin Makiyenko was recently quoted as saying that it will be 10 years between the first flight and the time production begins. Historically, fourth and fifth generation fighters take 15 to 20 years to develop. There are problems with the powerplant, manufacturing techniques and
ofcourse financial constraints and limitations to deal with that are hindering the project. Foreign financial assistance is being sought. The whole project now depends on money, with it the project will go forward and Russia will have an advanced 5th-gen fighter jet. Without it the project will either drag on, end or morph into split projects and another incrementally updated aircraft will come along for the interm. Currently the financing is not there, but the project is still continuing.

Who is this Makienko?? RuAF Commander? President? His is also called Mikhail Pagosyan? Why do you think he knows something truthful.
May be I'll say here that Russia has already 100 PAK-FA - and will quote me in another forum and say that I told that? Absolutely no.

Gi-Gizmo, look it was said that serial would START in 2015 - 6.5 years we have - don't you think that this time is enough to complete tests? and start serial? Start serial doesn't mean to built 100 AC annually but 10-20 AC.

"Historically, fourth and fifth generation fighters take 15 to 20 years to develop" - and what? he knew when development of PAK-FA started? I doubt.

 

[SkolZkiy]

Thats incorrect, at least according to the official statements at this point in time. The latest such statement said that there are three airframes finished, one of them was moved to Moscow for some kind of static tests and that the first flight-prototype was still in the process of assembly. Thats what they said less than four weeks ago. So first flight may or may not take place in the end of the year.

I agree as far as the difference in presentation is concerned. Russia has a history of hiding things up until the last minute. The SSBN-presentation not too long ago showed that very clearly. Its not necessarily a good idea though, esp. when its about the image of indigenous development and production capabilities. After all, Russia has an interest in generating attention for future export prospects.

About 3 airframes I know exactly and 1 of them must be flying. The problem is that officials tell different things. That's why I posted 3 but you are right sometimes it is said about 4 airframes - 3 static tests and 1 flying
About good or bad - such things also could be said about T-95 but we here don't care about who what can say - Russia on its own example (1941-1945) learned one thing - the possible enemy must know minimum about our armed forces. And this is our choice. The real possible enemy are NATO and China - these two powers can threaten our independence and with them Russia is ready to fight. It doesn't mean the real war MUST BE, it only means that Russia must have Armed forces that could defend it against any possible enemy. Information is also very dangerous weapon.

When PAK-FA fly it will be all right with Russia's world image

 

[SkolZkiy]

In the US flight hours are from wheels up to wheels down I would think its the same in the EU also.(Its not like thy taxi all over any way). Russian front line fighter pilots average 60 to 65 hours a year as of August 2009.With young crew commanders averaging 20.6 hours. More importantly look at the training time and cost. For a front line pilot its seven to eight years and $3.4 million. While "Sniper-pilots" take 10-12 years and $7.8 million. Future introduction of modern platforms will raise costs and timescale for pilot training. There is no quick fix . Realistically to field modernized aircraft with capable pilots in existing numbers will take till 2018+
Link to interview below.
Russian Air Force Modernization Linked to Future U.S. "Threat" - The Jamestown Foundation

You are right - but it was in 2008 now it is little better
about 120 - I underlined that this is maximum for some airbases for some pilots (Strizhi, Russkie Vityazi). And of course strategic aviation - Tu-22M3, Tu-160, Tu-95MS. As you know our SA is flying now very often.
For young pilots - main problem now is not in money or fuel but in training ACs - L-39 are too old and Yak-130 are only starting serial.
And as you know reform of VVS is provided and all VVS are becoming frontline. The rest would be fired to reserve.

EDITED. By the way I searched web for the this quote by Zein and in Russian I didn't find it on INTERFAX. Something strange. And it was by Nagovitsin that avarage number is 60-65 hours in RuAF

 

[Duffy]

You are right - but it was in 2008 now it is little better
about 120 - I underlined that this is maximum for some airbases for some pilots (Strizhi, Russkie Vityazi). And of course strategic aviation - Tu-22M3, Tu-160, Tu-95MS. As you know our SA is flying now very often.
For young pilots - main problem now is not in money or fuel but in training ACs - L-39 are too old and Yak-130 are only starting serial.
And as you know reform of VVS is provided and all VVS are becoming frontline. The rest would be fired to reserve.


" A little better" up to 120 hrs? Its up 13% not 100% . At best its 67 to 73 hrs on average. I understand that some airbases will have more time than others. Thats whey we are using the average. 120 hrs might be the average for all RuAF pilots but we were talking about fighter pilots. Transport/Strategic bombers/Tankers are completely different. 120 hours sounds realistic for an overall average. I would agree with the young pilots but you over looked the lack of modern air craft. When they graduate out of the trainer what do you put them in. (New platforms are going to forward bases).Train them to fly old fighters and then train them again? Remember you don't just jump from one air frame to another. The vacuum created by the fall of the Soviet Union will take decades to come out of. I respect your patriotism and have no doubt that the RuAF will be a top notch Air Force again. I hope you understand that its a very complicated situation the Air Force is in and on top of that it has to compete with the Navy and Army for funding. There is no short term solution, If they keep trying to pretend that there a super power developing new bombers and aircraft carriers it will just take that much longer.
Don't take this the wrong way but what if the PAK-FA is a flop?. It does happen when developing fighters.( I am not saying it is) no one will know for a few years but just what if.From a development point of view it has been rushed. That could set them back another 10 Years. Things are better for the Russian Armed Forces across the board, but there is still a mountain to climb.
PS I think the" Makienko" GI-Gizmo was referring to is Konstantin Makiyenko, who is deputy head of the Moscow-based Center for Analysis of Strategies and Technologies. If anyone understands the time frame involved its him.
Like I said SkolZkiy I am not bashing anyone and admire your Patriotism.

 

[GI-Gizmo]

PAK FA development . . .

Who is this Makienko?? RuAF Commander? President? His is also called Mikhail Pagosyan? Why do you think he knows something truthful.
May be I'll say here that Russia has already 100 PAK-FA - and will quote me in another forum and say that I told that? Absolutely no.

Gi-Gizmo, look it was said that serial would START in 2015 - 6.5 years we have - don't you think that this time is enough to complete tests? and start serial? Start serial doesn't mean to built 100 AC annually but 10-20 AC.

"Historically, fourth and fifth generation fighters take 15 to 20 years to develop" - and what? he knew when development of PAK-FA started? I doubt.

Konstantin Makiyenko is the Deputy Head of the Moscow based Centre for Analysis of Strategies and Technologies. At MAKS 2009 he was quoted as saying it would take 10
years from the time the first flight takes place in early 2010 to when production is expected
to begin. As far as how long Russia has had plans for a 5th generation fighter, that has been
since the early 1980s. The actual design, building and testing of components and how they
would all come together is something much more recent. Sukhoi was chosen as the prime
contractor for the PAK FA in May 2002. The Su-47, which the PAK FA is supposed to be
based upon, is a recent design of only around 10 years old. My personal opinion, based upon historical analysis of advanced aviation projects, the state of the Russian defense industry,
the budget constraints and the leap in technology that it is going to take to build an advanced, stealthy and competitive 5th generation fighter is that it will take more than 6.5 years to complete. I'm not saying that it is impossible, I definently respect Russian progress and
achievements when it comes to defense technology and I realize they are among the top
defense manufacturers and global powers. I guess we will all have to wait and see what
happens since none of us work for Sukhoi or the Russian military, we are all full of opinions
based upon what we see, read and think.

 

[SkolZkiy]

Guys if this will say anyone really respectable then I'll say "That's ok".
120 or higher - it is Strategic aviation
60 hours it was said avarage for fighters
transport aviation even more then strategic
about our frontier bombers I really don't know
It is not a patriotizm but sometimes we here know news better then somebody outside. I know we have problems but we are not dying. By the way I'm here hearing about big troubles in US and Eu with defence, but I'm not so sure that all these things is true.

 

[vitalivr4]

I do not want to post a rumor around here but here is what I know so far. According to my friend’s words who works for the ministry of defense “ 1 airplane is in a flying condition since last year”. All I can say right now is this: the cockpit has a shape of a water drop and wings are pointed forward.

 

[Tavarisch]

Russians are known to be secretive about their weapons. When the AK-74 came out, CIA Analysts shat their pants because they didn't know about it until an October Parade.

However, I doubt the credibility of the PAK-FA and T-95 for now. I won't believe a thing until I actually see them.

Last year, the Defense Minister told us that the T-95 should be in introduced this year. I don't see anything yet. Unless you're telling me that their hiding a few prototype 50-tonne tanks somewhere in Siberia, which wouldn't be surprising. However, given the financial status of Russia I doubt it.

Regarding the PAK-FA, it looks like they're delaying and delaying. Mikhail Pogosyan, while he was here in Malaysia during our LIMA Exhibition 2007, said that the PAK-FA isn't ready to fly until this year. Sukhoi General Director Mikhail Pogosyan again said that the first flight would be by year end. If they keep delaying, their gonna start losing a lot of confidence from a lot of people.

 

[SkolZkiy]

Tavarisch I am reading Russian military news very often - I didn't see any interview of officials from MoD about time of showing T-95. By the way this index even doesn't exist in documents - object 195 exists. If you have links please show it
About PAK-FA may be you are right but we don't know exactly that. And as I know my country - the decision about showing/hiding PAK-FA or ob.195 will be made by Medvedev or Putin, at least one of them must give permission for this

 

[Duffy]

Russians are known to be secretive about their weapons. When the AK-74 came out, CIA Analysts shat their pants because they didn't know about it until an October Parade..

Yes the AK was a very well kelped secret but times have changed. Russia has to fight for a market share in the very competitive arms market in order to help cover costs. Back during the cold war the US and USSR would develop and produce tools of war and other country's could buy them or not buy them. With the cost of high tech toys we all so desire you have to count on export to help cover development cost.Or share the R&D with other countries. That seems to be difficult for Russia because of the lack of money. It seems to be if you enter into a joint program with another nation and your financial contribution is not proportionate to your technical contribution there is a problem. If you put in fifty percent of the cash and have ninety percent of the knowledge base how much control should you have fifty percent or ninety percent? That makes for an unstable relationship, Someone is going to feel like they got screwed . If there right or not make no difference you will loose that customer.

As for the PAK-FA there going to have problem, Its a completely new design with new materials. I never understood why they said I would fly this year. If they try to rush this fighter into the air and it crashes it would hurt the program more than delays ever could. Realistically I would expect to see it fly at this time next year. and enter service some time around 2018. This is purely a guess

Thats just my 2 cents.

 

[Feanor]

Just to throw in something a little more relative then all this speculation, I recall earlier there was infinite skepticism about an Su-35 contract. Well now a serial order of 48 Su-35S has been placed for the VVS. In the old structure that would have been two regiments, but after the recent reforms I don't even know what the fighter aviation units look like anymore so it's anyone's guess as to how they will be split up.

ÀÐÌÑ-ÒÀÑÑ

 

[SkolZkiy]

that's true
It was said there would be AIRBASES - what it means in fact just now is not clear.

 

[Haavarla]

What is the current state of the Russian Air Force? Like how many fighters, bombers, transports and helicopters they have in active service. I wish I had an accurate source instead of Wikipedia.

Here is a link on RuAF witch i think are pretty good.

MIG-29/MIG-35 Fulcrum Counter-Air Fighter | Russian Arms, Military Technology, Analysis of Russia's Military Forces

Its show a total of 194 aktive Mig-29


Thanks

 

[Haavarla]

Just to throw in something a little more relative then all this speculation, I recall earlier there was infinite skepticism about an Su-35 contract. Well now a serial order of 48 Su-35S has been placed for the VVS. In the old structure that would have been two regiments, but after the recent reforms I don't even know what the fighter aviation units look like anymore so it's anyone's guess as to how they will be split up.

ÀÐÌÑ-ÒÀÑÑ

My bet is that those 48 Su-35 will be spred out or embeded if you like into other existing Su-27SM Regiment/skvadron.

Its quite logical, that way they bring up the existing regiments capabilities.



Thanks

 

[Feanor]

It's completely illogical to me. The Su-27SM have been deployed in whole regiments, instead of getting spread out throughout Su-27S regiments. Also the logistical and training hurdles between having some planes in a unit of one type and some of another would make it unlikely.

 

[turin]

At the time of the MAKS 2009-announcment one russian article threw in the number of three new squadrons being formed with the Su-35. I cant source it at the moment, so consider it hear-say. There certainly was never any talk of spreading them out through existing units. So as Feanor says, thats quite unlikely.

 

[Haavarla]

It's completely illogical to me. The Su-27SM have been deployed in whole regiments, instead of getting spread out throughout Su-27S regiments. Also the logistical and training hurdles between having some planes in a unit of one type and some of another would make it unlikely.

Hi Feanor.
I do appreciate your opinion in this Forum.
But i do not agree with you on this one.

You forgot to mention the cost of forming up completly new Skvadrons of Su-35.

It will be far sheaper to integrate them into exsisting Skvadrons of Flanker, so i don't understand the logistical and Training issue..
There will of course be a given numbers of pilots to be trained in those new Su-35, so what?

The pilots would have to come from the older Su-27/SM anyway, right?
Less training time will be the outcome, hense less cost too.

And do you have any status over the current Su-27/SM Regiment/Skavdrons inventory today?

It is not unfair to say some of them would greatly bennefit from the new Su-35.
Infact, several of the exsisting Su-27/sm regiments/Skvadron today could be missing some Aircrafts due to service & maintanance problems.
It's not always so easy to "bring in some reserve Flankers whenever they breakdown(structure futige)".
That will undoubtly take its toll on resources, just to get them active again.

So i would say it is a good chance Su-35 will enter existing Flanker Skavdrons.

But i suspect most of them will find its way south the the Kaucasus region anyway.

If anyone have some good sources that confirming otherwise, i will not yield


Thanks

 

[Feanor]

I'll try to get you some sources. Typically deployment plans receive at least some press coverage. So even if they try to keep it under wraps in the major news outlets, local newspapers might pick something up. True it's expensive to form entirely new squadrons, but up until now that has been the policy.

 

[Haavarla]

Feanor;181380]I'll try to get you some sources.
Typically deployment plans receive at least some press coverage. So even if they try to keep it under wraps in the major news outlets, local newspapers might pick something up.

Appreciate it.

True it's expensive to form entirely new squadrons, but up until now that has been the policy.

Agreed, but times have changed in the RuAF as a whole.
They are under the re-structure knife like many other units/branch in Russia armed forces today.

And one must keep in mind, even if the RuAF have gotten a huge procurment contract.
Its been ages since the last one, and the RuAF still have limited resourses to maintain all the Regiments/units.
The average flight hour of the pilots have improved, but are still lagging behind many other nations AF.
This are good pointers to the funding of the RuAF.
(No downplaying intended here).

Of course, there is no telling that some skvadrons of the Su-27 that is not in the SM standard could get replaced by Su-35 completly.
The older Su-27 could end up in reserves or be transfered to others units in the RuAF.


Thanks

 

[Salty Dog]

It's completely illogical to me. The Su-27SM have been deployed in whole regiments, instead of getting spread out throughout Su-27S regiments. Also the logistical and training hurdles between having some planes in a unit of one type and some of another would make it unlikely.

I agree with Feanor on the logistical and training hurdles WRT mixing aircraft of different types. For this reason you do not see the legacy Hornets (F/A-18 C/D) mixed with Super Hornets (F/A-18E/F) in the same squadron.