Realistically a conventional attack against Singapore is unrealistic unless we witness a WWIII scenario and the aim of the antagonist is to cripple support for the US fleet operating in the region. If anything I believe we are more likely to witness a terrorist campaign aimed at destabilizing the economy.
Extreme possible example as follows:
Scenario Background:
Malaysia suffers a breakdown in democracy resulting in a former military 'strongman' taking over following the introduction of martial law. This individual follows President Zia's of Pakistan's example and changes the constitution making the military and security infrastructure a defender of Islam and not a defender of a secular state. Extreme elements of the military and intelligence services (mirroring what happened with elements of the Pakistani ISI and military) begin to take a more radical view and start pushing for the reunification of all of Malaysia under Sharia Law (including Singapore). The new leader of Malaysia backs this argument through 'peaceful' means, however radical elements within his government start training insurgents in remote areas with the primary purpose of destabilizing the Singapore economy and to ferment distrust between the Malay, Indian and Chinese ethnic groups. Several remote armouries in Malaysia are raided with light and medium weapons/ammo being obtained by radical groups. Stand-off weapon technology / deployment methodology provided by rogue elements of the REAL IRA and Hamas.
Flashpoint:
Malay based extremists launch mortar and rocket attacks (based on IRA / Hamas technology / methodology) from JOHOR across the causeway against the Northern edge of the airport and industrial areas around Tuas. The Malaysian Government denies all knowledge of any insider support and condemns the attacks. The terrorist groups claim they are fighting for the freedom of ethnic Malay's and reunification of Malaysia under strict Sharia Law. Massive impact upon Singapore economy, airport shuts, foreign airlines threaten to stop flying in, evacuation of non dependent expat families begins.
Response:
Option A:
Singapore Government issues a strong warning to Malaysia to deal with the insurgents and begins planning for intelligence based covert operations in JOHOR to target suspected launch sites / groups. Uses international diplomacy to put pressure on the Malay Gov. Basically looks at undertaking a similar campaign to that advocated by the British/Irish Governments during the Troubles by identifying and neutralizing support / attacks mounted from Southern Ireland against the North, basically a low key counter insurgency campaign working with their Malay military / intelligence counterparts. Risk of such a low key response - drawn out campaign, which does not guarantee a total end to cross border strikes from week one, lack of trust - possible sympathizers working in the Malay intelligence service.
Option B:
Singapore mobilizes it's armed forces and begins striking back against launch sites using artillery, attack helicopters and CAS. Show of strength option. Risk of high level response - all out conventional war with Malaysia, alienation of Malay community and possible retaliating strikes against urban areas by the Malaysian armed forces.
What option would you go for and why?
Extreme possible example as follows:
Scenario Background:
Malaysia suffers a breakdown in democracy resulting in a former military 'strongman' taking over following the introduction of martial law. This individual follows President Zia's of Pakistan's example and changes the constitution making the military and security infrastructure a defender of Islam and not a defender of a secular state. Extreme elements of the military and intelligence services (mirroring what happened with elements of the Pakistani ISI and military) begin to take a more radical view and start pushing for the reunification of all of Malaysia under Sharia Law (including Singapore). The new leader of Malaysia backs this argument through 'peaceful' means, however radical elements within his government start training insurgents in remote areas with the primary purpose of destabilizing the Singapore economy and to ferment distrust between the Malay, Indian and Chinese ethnic groups. Several remote armouries in Malaysia are raided with light and medium weapons/ammo being obtained by radical groups. Stand-off weapon technology / deployment methodology provided by rogue elements of the REAL IRA and Hamas.
Flashpoint:
Malay based extremists launch mortar and rocket attacks (based on IRA / Hamas technology / methodology) from JOHOR across the causeway against the Northern edge of the airport and industrial areas around Tuas. The Malaysian Government denies all knowledge of any insider support and condemns the attacks. The terrorist groups claim they are fighting for the freedom of ethnic Malay's and reunification of Malaysia under strict Sharia Law. Massive impact upon Singapore economy, airport shuts, foreign airlines threaten to stop flying in, evacuation of non dependent expat families begins.
Response:
Option A:
Singapore Government issues a strong warning to Malaysia to deal with the insurgents and begins planning for intelligence based covert operations in JOHOR to target suspected launch sites / groups. Uses international diplomacy to put pressure on the Malay Gov. Basically looks at undertaking a similar campaign to that advocated by the British/Irish Governments during the Troubles by identifying and neutralizing support / attacks mounted from Southern Ireland against the North, basically a low key counter insurgency campaign working with their Malay military / intelligence counterparts. Risk of such a low key response - drawn out campaign, which does not guarantee a total end to cross border strikes from week one, lack of trust - possible sympathizers working in the Malay intelligence service.
Option B:
Singapore mobilizes it's armed forces and begins striking back against launch sites using artillery, attack helicopters and CAS. Show of strength option. Risk of high level response - all out conventional war with Malaysia, alienation of Malay community and possible retaliating strikes against urban areas by the Malaysian armed forces.
What option would you go for and why?