Possible Russian Invasion of Ukraine

Feanor

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
Iirc Ukraine and Belarus did sell a large number of aircraft during the 90's. Iirc the old Sri Lankan MiG-27s came second hand from Ukraine.

They have over 850 fixed wing aircraft in their inventory, what they are I do not know but some of the aircraft buffs that frequent this site should have a close idea on what types, I should add that they also have 185 helicopters.
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Wiki has a list that seems to be fairly accurate. However I would question how many of them could effectively participate in combat operations, on a 72-hours notice. My best bet would be (out of combat aircraft) 2-3 squadrons at most.
 
R

Ryan UK

New Member
ROCK45 said:
I have questions about their air force like how many training hours do pilots get and conditions of aircraft?
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Ive read somewhere before that the Ukrainian Pilots get about 2/3 of what Russian pilots get in flight hours, and as we know Russian pilots get very few im comparison with NATO Forces. http://www.niss.gov.ua/cacds/rese/0331c.html - states they get 40% of the required flight hours

As for the condition of their aircraft i cant imagine them having more than half combat ready, id estimate that around 3-4 squadrons would be properly maintained to fight effectively.
 
Feanor

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
I mentioned before that you can't compare to Russian pilots because high readyness units which would actually be used in a limited conflict, get 100+ hours, while low readyness are basically incapable of combat operations in my opinion. I don't know that Ukraine has any similar system.
 
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nevidimka

New Member
If they did, it would have appeared in those websites. There seem to be russian spies in everything Ukraine do as right now, Ukraine has their undivided attention. haha.

But like you say maybe they did, and do you think its gonna go through?
 
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nevidimka

New Member
Ryan UK said:
it said they have asked numerous nations, Russia most likely was the main focus due to the Ukrainian leaders anti-Russian ideology
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omg, thats right. :)

on another note, this is the latest :

http://www.en.rian.ru/world/20090209/120058115.html

I'm not sure what is wrong with this guy. When Yulia went to Russia, he said She got the full backing and authority to make the deal from the President? Simply coz he knows he himself would not be able to make any sort of deal considering his personal vendetta against Russia.

Now that the deal is done, he wants to make them pay for it. Did he think he would have done a better job himself? After putting Ukraine in such a difficult position in the beginning with his anti-Russian statements? This guy is taking it too personally and he doesnt mind taking Ukraine down with him.
 
J

John Sansom

New Member
I'd say the odds are good that they have asked the US for a loan, but the Russians and the Americans have decided that, in the interest of improving relations, Russia should be the lender.

These things tend to get a litttle complicated.
 
Feanor

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
I suspect that the USA knows well what kind of sh*thole the Ukranian economy is in and has no interest in supporting it. Russia on the other hand requires many parts of Ukranian infrastructure and economy to keep functioning (for example some of our ICBMs were manufactured in Ukraine and require assistance for maintenance, inspections, etc.). The railroad systems, gas and oil transit, and many other things are needed. As a result Russia has some vested interest in keeping Ukraine afloat. But even then, only so far. If the crisis brings Ukraine to the brink of collapse I suspect that we will do little if anything to prevent it. Possibly even a friendly shove in the right direction.
 
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nevidimka

New Member
A friendly shove in the right direction...:eek:nfloorl:

I think there is another explanation for this decision. If you look at Iceland's case, I remember reading that their economy was so badly managed (badly run business) that no Banks in Europe nor government would lend them money that they finally turned to Russia for a Loan.

This may be the case with Ukraine too. I don't think Ukraine is a good run economy when compared to western gov's so they too probably failed to get loans from European Banks, and gov's so they had to put up a think face and turn to Russia.

That's why I earlier suspected that they never approached the US.
 
Feanor

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
The loan to Iceland never materialized from what I recall. I suspect it was a PR story. Do you know otherwise?
 
K

kato

The Bunker Group
Verified Defense Pro
Iceland was prevented from total bankruptcy through a 10 billion loan from the IMF in January. Iceland previously declined loans from other governments, including Germany, before its collapse - now they have to adapt their complete state to the usual "good government" (sic) IMF conditions, including a massive tear-down of the social system. The three biggest banks in Iceland were nationalized in January, lots of customers have been told they won't see their money before April at least.
 
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nevidimka

New Member
I thought Iceland loan went through? it was surprising that iceland approached Russia for loan at first, and I didn't suspect it. But I think Novosti.ru? mentioned that due to their poor economic management meant that they were denied Loan from European banks, which then made sense, why they would approach Russia.
 
F

Firn

Active Member
The Russian and the Ukraine economy are in immense trouble, the really difference lies in the fact that Russia has a stable government, (still) foreign reserves and a rather large steady income thanks to the natural ressources.
I recon that the IMF will give Ukraine a large loan with a lot of strings attached. I just hope for the people that they are not too neoliberal in fabric.
 
L

Lostfleet

New Member
If there was a war between Russia and Ukraine, would Russia be able to prevent any aid coming to Ukraine from west via seaway? ( By sending some of its Northern Fleet to Med) of course can Russia achieve this without getting into conflict with a 3rd party?
 
K

kato

The Bunker Group
Verified Defense Pro
Why would there even be a need for a sea route?

There's a perfectly fine very modern transit highway going straight into Ukraine through Slovakia.
 
W

Waylander

Defense Professional
Verified Defense Pro
You think it is easier to bring material and heavy equipment via the med-bosporus-black sea than right through mainland europe via the european road and railroad network?

Ahem, that's defenitely not the case.
Especially not with every cargo vessel in the black sea being a much easier target for russian forces than trains and convoys on the landway.
 
J

John Sansom

New Member
The Slovakia route for supplies of just about any kind for the Ukraine is the way to go. Of course, Slovakia would have to agree to this, risking, of course, negative pressure from Russia (maybe).
 
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