Russia-Europe Energy Thread

[roberto]

Ahhh. This is the powerplant which supply my home with electricity and central heating:



So modern, superefficiency, multifuel powerplants doesn't care if they use coal, natural gas, straw or wood pellets.

Whatever is cheapest determines the value of the gas - it is one big pool. It seems as the European power will be renewed, replaced, upgraded, the reliance on gas will diminish. Algeria and Russia won't be able to set the price of the gas. Btw, Unit 2 is currently fueled by S American coal. Better and cheaper than European.

Global, multisource and flexibility.

Cheers

Ur showing country with relatively little industrialization. (Industry has shifted to Asia anyway). what about Giant Ocean liners for transporting goods across continents (Isnt ur computer built in East Asia or its compnents), all the commercial lines, heavy steel mills that can produce millons of tons of steel per year, cement plants, semi conductor fabs. These things needs very heavy energy and raw material use.
The fact of matter is West prosperity (living standards)depends Globlization and Russia has now monoply over globalization.

http://network.nationalpost.com/np/...a-s-foreign-policy-orbits-hugs-for-thugs.aspx
Sergey Lavrov, “For the first time in many years, a real competitive environment has emerged on the market of ideas [between different] value systems and development models.” And the good news, from the Russian point of view, is that “the West is losing its monopoly on the globalization process.”

 

[Grand Danois]

Ur showing country with relatively little industrialization. (Industry has shifted to Asia anyway). what about Giant Ocean liners for transporting goods across continents (Isnt ur computer built in East Asia or its compnents), all the commercial lines, heavy steel mills that can produce millons of tons of steel per year, cement plants, semi conductor fabs. These things needs very heavy energy and raw material use.
The fact of matter is West prosperity (living standards)depends Globlization and Russia has now monoply over globalization.

Haha. 90% of world trade is by the ocean! The limits of your knowledge is on display again - for the nth time. (This leaves 10% done over land - including Russia).

European industrial output is high - it is just obscured by the even higher output in services. 20.3% of EU GDP is industrial output - and that is without construction & primary sector. That's 3.4 trillion dollars in 2006 (according to Eurostat). So yeah right, we're really really de-industrialized. What was the size of the Russian GDP? And how much is industry (without construction and energy/minerals (primary sector)?

Lastly how industrialised Denmark is has absolutely zero, nothing, zilch to do with the powerplant technology - it works just as well in the Ruhr - so that is just such an ... well irrelevant comment.

Btw, I noticed that this is another weak attempt to divert from defending your postulate. A very incoherent attempt at that.

 

[Feanor]

Yes, but this kind of perspective only provides the macroeconomics, i.e. not if the fraction used for procurment has increased and personnel cost has gone down.

I don't know the percentage allocation of the 2008 budget, but large scale training exercises are becoming more and more common in the Russian Army. The air force flight hours are increasing, and last winter the VMF deployed a mini-CVBG for the first time. If another cruise of the Kuznetsov goes ahead as planned then I'm highly skeptical of a PPP budget decrease. Lets not forget the budget went from 31 billion USD to 36.8 billion USD. 40.5 billion is the projected 2009 budget. Certainly beats the inflation rate. :unknown

EDIT: Danois I'm still at a loss as to why you're debating with him..... he doesn't understand what you're writing to him.

 

[Grand Danois]

I don't know the percentage allocation of the 2008 budget, but large scale training exercises are becoming more and more common in the Russian Army. The air force flight hours are increasing, and last winter the VMF deployed a mini-CVBG for the first time. If another cruise of the Kuznetsov goes ahead as planned then I'm highly skeptical of a PPP budget decrease. Lets not forget the budget went from 31 billion USD to 36.8 billion USD. 40.5 billion is the projected 2009 budget. Certainly beats the inflation rate. :unknown

EDIT: Danois I'm still at a loss as to why you're debating with him..... he doesn't understand what you're writing to him.

Because he crashed two threads and he is now corraled in this one. I'm the considerate and altruistic Mod. Well, that and so the fact that I've been slightly sick the past two days, lying in bed and just had to pass some time (don't worry, I'm cool and will be back at work tomorrow.)

Yes, I get your point wrt no PPP decrease. There is also the possibility that public defence spending numbers are misleading...(?)

 

[drandul]

some info

Some facts from frontline of Russian Gas/Oil explorations. (Me as participant)
This summer new exploration project conducted on eastern shelf of Kamchatka peninsula. Head operator- KNG ltd (Kamchatka NefteGas) - joint stock venture of 70 % Rosneft and 30 % KNOC- (Korean National Oil Company). That huge area newer was drilled and deeply explored before- only seismic surveys with some very promising results.
So right now second stage of that project supposed to begin but it is canceled.Reason- state regulator have not issued permit for drilling of next exploration wells. Reasons unclear. Results of first stage unclear as well. Looks like artificial suspension of explorations. In best case project could be continued next year. Enormous logistic efforts was made to support that project. I can't see whole picture -may be some games between Gasprom and Rosneft...strange anyway.

 

[roberto]

Haha. 90% of world trade is by the ocean! The limits of your knowledge is on display again - for the nth time. (This leaves 10% done over land - including Russia).

90% of World trade cannot be on Ships. u need rail and trucks to move from ports anyway. for Oil and Gas there is Pipelines. So ships are not the only method of transportation. Mexico/Canada are US largest trading partners. Similarly China will become largest trading partner of Russia and India this year. Overland routes have special advantages.
u need Potash and other fertilizer for Agriculture.

http://eng.rzd.ru/wps/portal/rzdeng?STRUCTURE_ID=15&layer_id=3044&refererLayerId=3043&id=102441
Foreign trade shipments by rail up 4.3% to 265.8 million tons in IH2008
The increase in volumes was due to higher consumption of oil, coal and fertilizers in Europe.

European industrial output is high - it is just obscured by the even higher output in services. 20.3% of EU GDP is industrial output - and that is without construction & primary sector. That's 3.4 trillion dollars in 2006 (according to Eurostat). So yeah right, we're really really de-industrialized. What was the size of the Russian GDP? And how much is industry (without construction and energy/minerals (primary sector)?

World largest Industrial nation was untill this year was US. Now It is China. So EU combined will be still less than US/China alone. Much of ur Industrial value input is trading among EU nations. so higher currency values comes into Play. EU Car and truck market is smaller than US and China alone. And Russia is EU largest car and truck market. Number of truck demand shows the trading power of nation.
Similar is the case of Steel production. Russian owns now 15% of US steel production and have huge inland expansion going on.

Lastly how industrialised Denmark is has absolutely zero, nothing, zilch to do with the powerplant technology - it works just as well in the Ruhr - so that is just such an ... well irrelevant comment.

Btw, I noticed that this is another weak attempt to divert from defending your postulate. A very incoherent attempt at that.

u cannot replicated this technolgoy for large nations. small high per capita nation with very small defense budgets can afford this kind of luxury but not big nations which have so many other responisibilities.

 

[ASFC]

90% of World trade cannot be on Ships.

http://www.imo.org/includes/blastDataOnly.asp/data_id=18900/IntShippingFlyerfinal.pdf

If you bother to read it before judging it then you will see on Page 2 of this leaflet from the International Maritime Organisation that 90% of trade is by Sea.

 

[roberto]

http://www.imo.org/includes/blastDataOnly.asp/data_id=18900/IntShippingFlyerfinal.pdf

If you bother to read it before judging it then you will see on Page 2 of this leaflet from the International Maritime Organisation that 90% of trade is by Sea.

u should take this with graing of salt as it is coming for Shipping organization.
So explain why Canada and Mexico are largest trading partner of US and how is China largest trading partner of India/Russia. Trucks and Railroad plays very important part in trade.

http://eng.rzd.ru/wps/portal/rzdeng?STRUCTURE_ID=4
Strategic player in the Russian economy

Accounts for over 3.6% of Russia’s GDP, handles around 80% of all transportation in Russia
Handles 40% of all freight in Russia by turnover and over 41% of passenger rail transport
Handles about 83% of all freight in Russia (excluding oil by pipeline)
1.3 billion passengers, 1.3 billion tons of freight annually

 

[Grand Danois]

u should take this with graing of salt as it is coming for Shipping organization.
So explain why Canada and Mexico are largest trading partner of US and how is China largest trading partner of India/Russia. Trucks and Railroad plays very important part in trade.

Easy to explain Dr. watson. Countries in proximity with long borders. But:

From CIA Factbook:

Exports - partners:
Definition Field Listing
Canada 21.4%, Mexico 11.7%, China 5.6%, Japan 5.4%, UK 4.3%, Germany 4.3% (2006)

At least 66.9% of all exports went by sea.

Imports - partners:
Definition Field Listing
China 16.9%, Canada 15.7%, Mexico 10.6%, Japan 7.4%, Germany 4.8% (2006)

At least 74.7% of all imports came by sea.

Do you understand, roberto?

I'll deal with the rest later.

 

[ASFC]

u should take this with graing of salt as it is coming for Shipping organization.

:unknown

No-they are the International Maritime Organisation-set up with the UN, the high seas version of the WTO. They have no commercial interest from upping their figures, or a geopolitical interest. They are just stating it as it is.

And before you say 'Russia will not agree with this' they are a member of this -in fact all International Countries pretty much with a coast line are members.

 

[roberto]

Easy to explain Dr. watson. Countries in proximity with long borders. But:

From CIA Factbook:

Exports - partners:
Definition Field Listing
Canada 21.4%, Mexico 11.7%, China 5.6%, Japan 5.4%, UK 4.3%, Germany 4.3% (2006)

At least 66.9% of all exports went by sea.

Imports - partners:
Definition Field Listing
China 16.9%, Canada 15.7%, Mexico 10.6%, Japan 7.4%, Germany 4.8% (2006)

At least 74.7% of all imports came by sea.

Do you understand, roberto?

I'll deal with the rest later.

It just show overall export and import. it does not meant that Export/Import with Canada/Mexico is on sea. US is major importer of Oil. All most 30% of its totoal imports consist of Oil. so natuarlly it will come by sea. but nowwhere that so called 90% figure sustainable.

 

[Grand Danois]

90% of World trade cannot be on Ships. u need rail and trucks to move from ports anyway. for Oil and Gas there is Pipelines. So ships are not the only method of transportation. Mexico/Canada are US largest trading partners. Similarly China will become largest trading partner of Russia and India this year. Overland routes have special advantages.
u need Potash and other fertilizer for Agriculture.

Ships are not the only means of transportation - that's true. But they suck if the distances are long, in other words, shipping takes care of 90 percent of world trade - you should have found out not to distrust what I say by now.

World largest Industrial nation was untill this year was US. Now It is China. So EU combined will be still less than US/China alone. Much of ur Industrial value input is trading among EU nations. so higher currency values comes into Play.

Uhm no. you definitely need to read up on definition of GDP, here for you:

The most common approach to measuring and understanding GDP is the expenditure method:

GDP = consumption + gross investment + government spending + (exports − imports), or, GDP = C + I + G + (X-M).

EU Car and truck market is smaller than US and China alone. And Russia is EU largest car and truck market. Number of truck demand shows the trading power of nation.
Similar is the case of Steel production. Russian owns now 15% of US steel production and have huge inland expansion going on.

Relevance to this discussion? Zero.

u cannot replicated this technolgoy for large nations. small high per capita nation with very small defense budgets can afford this kind of luxury but not big nations which have so many other responisibilities.

It is being replicated for larger nations. Defence spending, per capita expenditure and size of nation has absolutely ZERO influence, just as these factors have zero influence if it was a coal plant.

Totally clueless.

 

[Feanor]

Grand Danois another question, your figures support your point, 66 and 74 percent respectively, but both fall quite short of the original figure of 90. Is the US a special case that does more land trade then other nations proportionately? Or is the 90 percent indeed exaggerated?

 

[ASFC]

90% is every country in the world-GD only did the major countries of note. The original claim was for worldwide trade between all countries, not between two or three countries.

I have stuck roberto on my ignore list now, it will stop me saying something that will get me banned.

 

[Grand Danois]

Grand Danois another question, your figures support your point, 66 and 74 percent respectively, but both fall quite short of the original figure of 90. Is the US a special case that does more land trade then other nations proportionately? Or is the 90 percent indeed exaggerated?

I took 100% and subtracted can and mex - they're the only two countries with land borders to the USA. The rest can only be traded by sea - hence the "at least", they're minimum figures "by sea" as there is also trade by sea included in the mex and can numbers, I just cannot see how much.

But in the case of the US, somewhere between 70-90% import/export is by sea.

Yes, land transport is huge in US and Can (and mex)- remember their huge consumption of transportation fuels - it is because it is a huge market and economies of scale are at play at many levels, so yes - less than 90%

 

[roberto]

Ships are not the only means of transportation - that's true. But they suck if the distances are long, in other words, shipping takes care of 90 percent of world trade - you should have found out not to distrust what I say by now.

If 90% is not true for US so why it is applied to other nations. US import huge amount of industrial/consumer products from China/Japan/SK and than there is big energy factor. 90% can only be applied to Island nation like Japan. certainly not Russia wherer Railway is dominant factor.

Uhm no. you definitely need to read up on definition of GDP, here for you:

The most common approach to measuring and understanding GDP is the expenditure method:

GDP = consumption + gross investment + government spending + (exports − imports), or, GDP = C + I + G + (X-M).

This old and useless definition. u can create massive amount of private and public debt to increase private consumption and public spending but it does not mean that overall strength of nation has increased.

Relevance to this discussion? Zero.

The quantity of heavy duty truck sold in a country is key baromator for economic activity. For personal use People can always use public transportation for what ever reason they dont want cars.

It is being replicated for larger nations. Defence spending, per capita expenditure and size of nation has absolutely ZERO influence, just as these factors have zero influence if it was a coal plant.

Totally clueless.

Larger nations on small scale. it is not happening in Japan/SK despite all there civillian nuclear and solar technology they are much depended on Oil and Gas.

 

[Grand Danois]

If 90% is not true for US so why it is applied to other nations. US import huge amount of industrial/consumer products from China/Japan/SK and than there is big energy factor. 90% can only be applied to Island nation like Japan. certainly not Russia wherer Railway is dominant factor.

Actually, in the case of Japan and SK, it would be 100% Allow me to add UK, Australia, Taiwan, Iceland...also 100%

Russia, yes huge place, but only 2-3% of the world economy and 2-3% of population. The 90% is shipped around.

This old and useless definition. u can create massive amount of private and public debt to increase private consumption and public spending but it does not mean that overall strength of nation has increased.

It was meant to show you that internal circulation have no effect on industrial output figures, i.e. 3.4 trillion usd is solid. Compare that to the total Russian of c. 1.3 trillion usd and industrial output of 260 billion usd (and in this case it include construction).

The quantity of heavy duty truck sold in a country is key baromator for economic activity. For personal use People can always use public transportation for what ever reason they dont want cars.

So? It can be used on a single country. Also a developin economy need far more trucks - did you ever consider that?

Larger nations on small scale. it is not happening in Japan/SK despite all there civillian nuclear and solar technology they are much depended on Oil and Gas.

If coal and gas is big in Germany, then there is absolutely no problem with this modern standard technology.

cheers

 

[roberto]

Actually, in the case of Japan and SK, it would be 100% Allow me to add UK, Australia, Taiwan, Iceland...also 100%

Largest trading nations are China/US/Germany/Russia/Japan. It does not add up to 90%.

Russia, yes huge place, but only 2-3% of the world economy and 2-3% of population. The 90% is shipped around.

Russia is much more than 2 to 3%

It was meant to show you that internal circulation have no effect on industrial output figures, i.e. 3.4 trillion usd is solid. Compare that to the total Russian of c. 1.3 trillion usd and industrial output of 260 billion usd (and in this case it include construction).

actually Russian GDP is far higher than Germany. and has much more resources at Government disposable with 14% flat tax rate. Similar is the case with money in private hands. that allows them to purchase 4 million cars per year and built the tallest and most expensive construction projects in the world.
http://www.rbcnews.com/free/20080731163549.shtml

So? It can be used on a single country. Also a developin economy need far more trucks - did you ever consider that?

Why developing economies need more trucks because Industrial production is shifting thats why it needs trucks to move stuff. there is reason that Asia/Middleast has amassed $8T worth of hard currency which EU cannot do even in next 100 years. it is this money that has fueled construction and retail boom.

http://www.chinatruck.org/english/2008/jun/16001.html
As expected, domestic sales of heavy trucks surged 58.7 percent to 167,232 units in the first quarter this year, according to statistics from the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers. Meanwhile, April demand was also furious

If coal and gas is big in Germany, then there is absolutely no problem with this modern standard technology.

cheers

Germany still needs peteroleum for its chemical and transportation industry. and it also needs whole alot of minerals from Russia. In due course of time it will be known that i cannot do anything practical against Russia. and whole EU economy depends on Germany

 

[ASFC]

Largest trading nations are China/US/Germany/Russia/Japan. It does not add up to 90%.

Get some numbers and prove that statement-go on, I dare you to actually back something up. Worldwide Trade does not just exist between 5 nations.
:lol:

So far, if you are to be believed, Russia is going to screw Europe using every Energy source (even though Russia doesn't have it to sell), including managing to break into the Wests Nuclear market. China is building over 100 reactors in 12 years, the West is bankrupt, a Large proportion of World Trade is driven on land through Russia, oh and apparently Russia has more than 3% of the World Economy in a world of over 200 countries.

And this is before we consider that you only ever seem to vaguely back this up, mainly with Russian sources, expect us to believe you without question, oh, and think Russia would be stupid enough to attack NATO with the conseqences it would suffer from NATOs defence playbook.

 

[Feanor]

And if a large percentage of Trade had to drive through Russia economies would grind to a halt.

No. Economies would invest in Russian infrastructure. That's what would happen. Since we do not see major infrastructural investment in Russia, that means that the current transportation system is still capable of of taking the traffic. I have read somewhere about increased demand for railroad cars in Russia, but that may be due to the Soviet stock running out from old age.