GLORIOUS SPARTAN: Prelude of upcoming events in the Gulf ?

[BLACK SHIP]

GLORIOUS SPARTAN relude of the things to come ?

A large scale exercise started this week named Glorious Spartan between the HAF and IAF.At first it sounded like a usual affair in which the Greek and Israeli Air Forces were involved in the past .However some details are now published which raised some questions of what the real purpose of this exercise is.Usually on previous occasions the exercise took part close or around the island of Crete in Southern Greece.This time around the IAF F16Is escorted by F15Is will fly all the way from Israel ,a 1700+ distance and refueled by B-703s, mock attack an airbase in central Greece and drop live ammo at a nearby firing range and return home and all that on a daily basis. The mission profile of this missions includes low flying over mountainous terrain over Turkey ,Aegean and attack the target which is located in an enclosed of mountains area. This particular airbase is the Headquarters of HAF and heavily defended besides its own air wing by various SAM units which equipment includes Russian systems .
Other aspects of the exercise include CSAR missions involving MH-53 and KC-130 AAR and DACT between various types of ac .The length of the Glorious Spartan will be 2 weeks .
It looks more and more like a general rehearsal of upcoming events in the Gulf Area .What is your assessment ?

 

[chris]

The mission profile of this missions includes low flying over mountainous terrain over Turkey

Do you have more information on that? I hope that it is not based on my post in defencenet. That was just an hypothesis on how to make the scenario better. I don't want to start that kind of rumours.

 

[BLACK SHIP]

Do you have more information on that? I hope that it is not based on my post in defencenet. That was just an hypothesis on how to make the scenario better. I don't want to start that kind of rumours.

Nobody starts anything .
This information is just a trickle that comes out of HAF sources at 110 FW .
Putting the bits together is not that difficult .
I simply emphasize the fact that the scope of this particular exercise appears to be far more extensive than previous ones .There is no way to know what how and when they contact the various scenarios and mission profiles of this exercise .I am sure that you are familiar with the various reports on the Greek press of the several "unexpected" intrusions of Athens FIR which surprised the HAF regarding the composition and size of the air groups.

ps. I just read your post. Excellent .

 

[dk706]

Black ship do not mention scenarios like flying over turkey without official information... In defencenet that was just a proposal on how could the IAF make the scenarios of the exercise more Iran like and it wasnt mentioned as a possibility moreover no SAM systems will be used in the senarios russian or not russian..we even refused to include the Ihawk...

 

[dk706]

despite all this though I see where you are getting... the summer may indeed be hotter than ever after a final rehearsal...it certainly sends the right message

 

[BLACK SHIP]

. the summer may indeed be hotter than ever after a final rehearsal...it certainly sends the right message

Yes that's precisely where I want to focus.I have no interest in turning this into what and how the particulars of the exercise will unfold and furthermore I don't think anybody can claim access for the time being to "official information" even on the above mentioned forum .

 

[chris]

the summer may indeed be hotter than ever after a final rehearsal...it certainly sends the right message

If you also consider the peace talks with Syria, held in Turkey, then Israel sure sends a lot of "messages" out. It could easily be just diplomacy though.

 

[dk706]

If you also consider the peace talks with Syria, held in Turkey, then Israel sure sends a lot of "messages" out. It could easily be just diplomacy though.

Yep sure thing they do use diplomacy but in the middle east show of power and action have historically been much more effective than diplomacy...

Considering the supposed long range Incursion auditions that the IAF has been conducting in Greek FIR for the past months and that topped up by glorious Spartan.... Israel is certainly showing its teeth...

 

[Aliph Ahmed]

History is a witness to the fact that where one country is pressurized into not doing something (whatever maybe the means), she doubles her effort. (Iraq, North Korea and Pakistan being one such examples)

It is quite a vague statement which many of us will find quiet open ended for any interpretation.

I will ,therefore, try to remain strictly on Iran. It is to my understanding and I am convinced that Iran going nuclear is simply inevitable.

Following are just some of the facts:

1. Iran has the technical know how. They are building their own centrifuges. They have even moved on to P2s where the rotors are made of carbons. Just recently, they installed another cascade of 159 P2 centrifuges after installing 3,000 or so P1 centrifuges at Natanz. (Their main enrichment location buried deep deep underground)

2. There program is dispersed all over the country with all places well guarded and some heavily guarded.

3. Right now, Iran is enriching Uranium at only a handfull known locations.

4. Iran's population is 66 million as per the CIA handbook making it one of the most populous country in Middle east.

5. Land is very mountaneous.

6. Iran produces quite a handfull of weopons on their own. Most of the weopons they produce are keeping USA Vs Iraq secenario in mind so it seems.

7. Strategically located at the strait of Hormuz. Some 30% of world's oil passes through it. Some estimates put it at even 40%.

8. Navy has 1,000 boats. Few ships and etc.

9. Any attack by Israel will take place with full collaboration from USA and will be seen as such by the world community no matter what the USA or Israel says.

etc etc.

So what do you do with a country like Iran stopp from going nuclear ? There is no denying that any airstrike if any will be successfull but what will that achieve ?

1. Iran will keep quiet. Accept the fact that Air strikes havel only extend the timeframe of Iran going nuclear but has not ended it. Iran will simply walk out of NPT, kick out inspectors and take its enrichment program from a few handfull known locations to unknown unilimted locations. How many of these installations will USA/Israel combo be able to find (no IAEA inspectors on grounds anymore) and destroy ?

Unlikely keeping in mind the Ahmedinijad's statements.

2. Work on 1 and also fire a few missiles (whatever remains after the strikes) at Israel, GCC and take it on USA in Iraq not to mention close strait of hormuz ? Even if one major US or ally ship is sunk. Consider oil supplies to stop and world economy pretty much to a halt.

2 will require a massive injection of USA and allies to invade Iran on ground. They will have a 66 million poople Iran + 25 million Iraq and another couple of million shias in GCC (If GCC gets involved) to take care of. and currently, they are having a hard time controlling 25 million Iraqis only.

So 2 is an unlikely wish scenario for the US and allies.

That leaves quite an interesting choice for George Bush to make because eitherway, the country most effected by Israel-Iran will be USA.

 

[DarthAmerica]

History is a witness to the fact that where one country is pressurized into not doing something (whatever maybe the means), she doubles her effort. (Iraq, North Korea and Pakistan being one such examples)

It is quite a vague statement which many of us will find quiet open ended for any interpretation.

I will ,therefore, try to remain strictly on Iran. It is to my understanding and I am convinced that Iran going nuclear is simply inevitable.

Following are just some of the facts:

1. Iran has the technical know how. They are building their own centrifuges. They have even moved on to P2s where the rotors are made of carbons. Just recently, they installed another cascade of 159 P2 centrifuges after installing 3,000 or so P1 centrifuges at Natanz. (Their main enrichment location buried deep deep underground)

2. There program is dispersed all over the country with all places well guarded and some heavily guarded.

3. Right now, Iran is enriching Uranium at only a handfull known locations.

4. Iran's population is 66 million as per the CIA handbook making it one of the most populous country in Middle east.

5. Land is very mountaneous.

6. Iran produces quite a handfull of weopons on their own. Most of the weopons they produce are keeping USA Vs Iraq secenario in mind so it seems.

7. Strategically located at the strait of Hormuz. Some 30% of world's oil passes through it. Some estimates put it at even 40%.

8. Navy has 1,000 boats. Few ships and etc.

9. Any attack by Israel will take place with full collaboration from USA and will be seen as such by the world community no matter what the USA or Israel says.

etc etc.

So what do you do with a country like Iran stopp from going nuclear ? There is no denying that any airstrike if any will be successfull but what will that achieve ?

1. Iran will keep quiet. Accept the fact that Air strikes havel only extend the timeframe of Iran going nuclear but has not ended it. Iran will simply walk out of NPT, kick out inspectors and take its enrichment program from a few handfull known locations to unknown unilimted locations. How many of these installations will USA/Israel combo be able to find (no IAEA inspectors on grounds anymore) and destroy ?

Unlikely keeping in mind the Ahmedinijad's statements.

2. Work on 1 and also fire a few missiles (whatever remains after the strikes) at Israel, GCC and take it on USA in Iraq not to mention close strait of hormuz ? Even if one major US or ally ship is sunk. Consider oil supplies to stop and world economy pretty much to a halt.

2 will require a massive injection of USA and allies to invade Iran on ground. They will have a 66 million poople Iran + 25 million Iraq and another couple of million shias in GCC (If GCC gets involved) to take care of. and currently, they are having a hard time controlling 25 million Iraqis only.

So 2 is an unlikely wish scenario for the US and allies.

That leaves quite an interesting choice for George Bush to make because eitherway, the country most effected by Israel-Iran will be USA.

The points you mentioned have been debated to death. What it all boils down to is this. If the USA wants to stop Iran, it has diplomatic and military means to do so. So it boils down to a choice. Iran has to decide if its worth it. The USA simply has to decide what it's comfortable with. Once that threshold is crossed. The results are inevitable. We have been through it before in the early 1960's. The difference is there are many more options now.


-DA

 

[Aliph Ahmed]

The points you mentioned have been debated to death. What it all boils down to is this. If the USA wants to stop Iran, it has diplomatic and military means to do so. So it boils down to a choice. Iran has to decide if its worth it. The USA simply has to decide what it's comfortable with. Once that threshold is crossed. The results are inevitable. We have been through it before in the early 1960's. The difference is there are many more options now.


-DA

Please describe "more options".

If it was that easy, Strikes would have been taken place long ago. The 60s you talk about : USA economy was in a much different shape then it is now.

Anything short of a ground invasion will not do and that is something USA and allies are not capable of at this time.

 

[DarthAmerica]

Please describe "more options".

If it was that easy, Strikes would have been taken place long ago. The 60s you talk about : USA economy was in a much different shape then it is now.

Anything short of a ground invasion will not do and that is something USA and allies are not capable of at this time.

I didn't say easy. What I mean is Iran is not in a position of advantage. It has exploits that could have catastrophic effects and have to be considered unless you believe the Iranians are suicidal. When I say options, I mean the full range of options. Iran could be cut off from the global economy and spun into collapse. Iran is a net importer of oil and it exports a very low quality oil that it's currently being stored in tankers because no one wants to buy it. An embargo could seriously hurt them. A blockade would definitely hurt them and they would be incapable of a direct challenge. There is sabotage. There is coerced regime change. There are bombing campaigns. There is even the option of precision nuclear attack on Iran. There is no need to invade.

The last time the US was in a lengthy war and faced the prospect of having to invade in order to conclude the conflict it choose to destroy two cities. In the end, Iran is faced with responses that are beyond it's means to resist. Iran also has several other nuclear powers, including Russia, who don't want to see it go nuclear due to proximity and past grievances.

-DA

 

[Aliph Ahmed]

I didn't say easy. What I mean is Iran is not in a position of advantage. It has exploits that could have catastrophic effects and have to be considered unless you believe the Iranians are suicidal. When I say options, I mean the full range of options. Iran could be cut off from the global economy and spun into collapse. Iran is a net importer of oil and it exports a very low quality oil that it's currently being stored in tankers because no one wants to buy it. An embargo could seriously hurt them. A blockade would definitely hurt them and they would be incapable of a direct challenge. There is sabotage. There is coerced regime change. There are bombing campaigns. There is even the option of precision nuclear attack on Iran. There is no need to invade.

The last time the US was in a lengthy war and faced the prospect of having to invade in order to conclude the conflict it choose to destroy two cities. In the end, Iran is faced with responses that are beyond it's means to resist. Iran also has several other nuclear powers, including Russia, who don't want to see it go nuclear due to proximity and past grievances.

-DA

I hope you do consider the adverse effects that will greatly harm the USA if USA ends up leaving/Kicked out of Middle East.

and yes, I belive(maybe wrongfully) that Iranians have been preparing for the USA ever since USA invaded Iraq and that there maybe segments who are suicidal.

I am not suppose to discuss economy in this thread but I assure you that economy of USA will touch bottom like it has never done before.

......offcourse at a great cost to Iran itself. (probably nuked like you mentioned).

 

[DarthAmerica]

I hope you do consider the adverse effects that will greatly harm the USA if USA ends up leaving/Kicked out of Middle East.

and yes, I belive(maybe wrongfully) that Iranians have been preparing for the USA ever since USA invaded Iraq and that there maybe segments who are suicidal.

I am not suppose to discuss economy in this thread but I assure you that economy of USA will touch bottom like it has never done before.

......offcourse at a great cost to Iran itself. (probably nuked like you mentioned).

The US economy is well over 13 trillion dollars a year. There is a lot of room to absorb temporary crisis. It has before many times. The Iranians don't have that. Also, national security interest independent of Iran require US military involvement in the ME. The US isn't going to leave so long as that is the case. I'm sure there are radical elements of the Iranian leadership, thats nothing new. All nations have radicals. Of course the Iranians have prepared for the US since OIF. Those plans have stagnated.

The bottom line is militarily Iran doesn't represent a threat beyond what the DoD is prepared to deal with one way or another. This is nothing new. I still remember Saddam saying that the "Mother of all Battles" was underway. I remember similar speculation about threats to oil and the Iraqi scorched earth policy. What I'm getting at is that when conducting a military analysis it's important to not allow the political rhetoric and media commentary to cloud your judgment.

Nothing is new about this scenario.

-DA

 

[Aliph Ahmed]

The US economy is well over 13 trillion dollars a year. There is a lot of room to absorb temporary crisis. It has before many times. The Iranians don't have that. Also, national security interest independent of Iran require US military involvement in the ME. The US isn't going to leave so long as that is the case. I'm sure there are radical elements of the Iranian leadership, thats nothing new. All nations have radicals. Of course the Iranians have prepared for the US since OIF. Those plans have stagnated.

The bottom line is militarily Iran doesn't represent a threat beyond what the DoD is prepared to deal with one way or another. This is nothing new. I still remember Saddam saying that the "Mother of all Battles" was underway. I remember similar speculation about threats to oil and the Iraqi scorched earth policy. What I'm getting at is that when conducting a military analysis it's important to not allow the political rhetoric and media commentary to cloud your judgment.

Nothing is new about this scenario.

-DA

I truly agree to what you are saying. I myself said that any stirke if any will be successfull. The question is who will blink because at the end of the day, USA will be the one fixing the mess as Iran will be in no shape.

It will be interesting to see how the USA handles couple of Iraqs (All bombed to stone age) with over 100 million people having not so positive wish/thoughts for the USA or the USA interests.

 

[DarthAmerica]

It will be interesting to see how the USA handles couple of Iraqs (All bombed to stone age) with over 100 million people having not so positive wish/thoughts for the USA or the USA interests.

Iraqi opinions aren't going to change over this. There will always be those who want us out. They are offset by those who understand our role and superior firepower where applicable. Again, this is a known quantity.

-DA

 

[Feanor]

Nothing is new about this scenario.

-DA

I disagree. Something is new. Russia and the U.S. are on the same page for once (which means no more major foreign support). Russia joined in on the U.N. sanctions on Iran recently. Their position is actually weaker then it seems.

 

[fantasma]

According to greek defencenet the drill has been completed.
The task for the IAF was to maintain airsuperiority over the said bombardier area, SEAD, and CSAR missions. The concept was that IAF planes from Israel should fly over 1600 km distance supported by air-refueling tankers KC-130 and AEW in order to conduct air-bombardments to the military field of Kranea and also M-53 hellos after sunset conducted CSAR missions. The target area for IAF was a few km from greek city of Larissa in Thessaly were stands and Greek Air Command headquarters. Every single day about 50 IAF jets approached the said area.

 

[DarthAmerica]

I disagree. Something is new. Russia and the U.S. are on the same page for once (which means no more major foreign support). Russia joined in on the U.N. sanctions on Iran recently. Their position is actually weaker then it seems.

That isn't new. I've been telling people for years that Russia isn't interested in what happens to Iran. Russia's interest in Iran was only to keep the USA occupied in Iraq with the majority of it's combat troops so that Russia could consolidate and pressure FSU states without fear of serious military opposition from the United States. Other than that Russia has never supported an Iranian Nuclear weapons program. Russia and Iran have historic grievances. Take a look at a map. Moscow is only 2500km from Tehran. Tehran used to openly refer to the Russians as the "Lesser Satan". They have as much to fear from Iranian nuclear weapons as anyone else.


-DA

 

[DarthAmerica]

According to greek defencenet the drill has been completed.
The task for the IAF was to maintain airsuperiority over the said bombardier area, SEAD, and CSAR missions. The concept was that IAF planes from Israel should fly over 1600 km distance supported by air-refueling tankers KC-130 and AEW in order to conduct air-bombardments to the military field of Kranea and also M-53 hellos after sunset conducted CSAR missions. The target area for IAF was a few km from greek city of Larissa in Thessaly were stands and Greek Air Command headquarters. Every single day about 50 IAF jets approached the said area.

You might be interested in reading a document called Osirak Redux. It's done by civilians and not what I would call perfect by any means but it's good work considering the writers IMV. Google the name and you should find the PDF.


-DA