Europe and 5th generation aircraft

Status
Not open for further replies.

gf0012-aust

Grumpy Old Man
Staff member
Verified Defense Pro
But is Iraq is a pretty easy open and shut case. The US knew heaps about the Iraqi setup, hell they sold and setup most of it, or had people who knew the details. The Iraqis weren't really in a strategic position.
Iraq was not an open and shut case. There is this continuing mythology that the Iraqis were lambs to the slaughter. Their IADS and infrastructure was superior to some of the coalition NATO participants.

BTW, the US didn't sell most of the combat and comms infrastructure - it was european and russian.

again people make assumptions that speed in which it was degraded can be trivialised as an event. Ask anyone who was in the planning of the opening stages, or who did post site analysis and you'll find genuine surprise at how good the basics were.


Take another example. Say North Korea. Where the threat matrix is massively more complex as are the defences. I don't think anyone would be capable of simply unplugging that one. I don't think the North Koreans are banking the house on their airforce single handedly stopping intrusions. I think that is a more effective strategic approach.

North Korea has a less sophisticated IADS than Iraq at its peak.
North Korea is just as vulnerable to ewarfare due to geographical issues - in fact at a comms saturation or comms overlap level I'd argue that its easier to "virtually" degrade at an ewarfare level
 

StingrayOZ

Super Moderator
Staff member
GF I totally understand what you are saying how extensively and impressively the Iraqi networks were compromised, and that it just didn't happen.

While the US didn't sell specific systems they help advised how to set it up and certainly had a wide knowledge of the network.

Hence why it was such a good network, they paid good money to people who knew what they were doing.

I would say NK is a tougher nut to crack. While coordinating complex and dynamic responses to an attack could be reduced, first strikes at predetermined fixed targets would still most likely occur.

Somebody thinks they have a reasonable setup, they seem to export a number of missiles.
 

gf0012-aust

Grumpy Old Man
Staff member
Verified Defense Pro
While the US didn't sell specific systems they help advised how to set it up and certainly had a wide knowledge of the network.
No they didn't. It was set up by europeans. thats why the existing iraqi comms network is compatible with euro and australian domestic systems. the military grid was a euro/russian hybrid. the US had nothing to do with its establishment and design

Hence why it was such a good network, they paid good money to people who knew what they were doing.
see above.

I would say NK is a tougher nut to crack. While coordinating complex and dynamic responses to an attack could be reduced, first strikes at predetermined fixed targets would still most likely occur.

different nut, different nutcracker. same bloke, different haircut. the major diff is the NorKs have a better opportunity to surge early. At a sustainment and flexibility level, I'd argue that they are less capable than Saddams iraq by some margin

Somebody thinks they have a reasonable setup, they seem to export a number of missiles.
they're selling cheap battlefield missiles based on the Scud. their existing family of missiles is based on the Scud. That invites known limitations and it also means that those limitations are a quantifiable and exercisable burden that can be exploited by a reasonably competent defender with a coherent force. They're still stalinist defenders at a mentality level

selling cheap TBM's isn't a mark of sophistication - esp when they can be dealt with early versions of Patriot etc... let alone later upgraded models.
 

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
In other words I'm being realistic. Have a look around, the only nations that have a big bad scary IADS are at a competitive disadvantage in the air vs their enemies. That is the real world, even between comparable powers that is the norm, simply because if you had the competitive advantage in the air you wouldn't invest heavily in GBAD. Personally i don't see the point in creating extremely artificial scenario's simply to illustrate a systems potential capability.
But potential capability is the subject we're arguing about isn't it? So it illustrate it fully and understand it's capabilities we have to initially look at it with all other variables being equal. Then after we've done that, we can proceed to apply what we've discovered to a real conflict situation to be able to say, for example: In the case of Algeria there are simply not enough systems to cover the air space. As a result no coherent IADS will emerge unless additional weapon purchases are made.

Using normal terminology that would be a battery (PATRIOT batteries are organized in that manner, as are their larger formations i.e. a battalion). But in line with the Russian way of doing things that wouldn't surprise me if they called 1 system a battalion, just like an infantry battalion is a regiment, a fighter squadron is a regiment, ect. Whatever they call it 8 systems and some point defense does not constitute an IADS.
In Russia 2 fighter squadrons are a regiment, each squadron has 12 airframes.

It actually pisses me of when people do this. When did i ever say "SAMs and no Air force"? When i refer to an IADS i do mean all of its elements, airborne included. When I'm referring to SAM's alone I'll say GBAD.
my apologies, it just seems like you're denying that the side with IADS has comprehensive airborne capabilities across the spectrum, the way the attacking side does.

No sh*t sherlock! Do you think that adding fighters to an IADS (they were there anyway) somehow drastically alters the balance? Airborne elements can be dislocated, outmaneuvered and penetrated as easily as GBAD by superior EW & ISR capability. And remember if your not the guy who invested heavily in a IADS, you spent your pennies on those very systems.
Yes you do drastically alter the balance, because now you can conduct your own offensive strikes using your own EW and ISR capabilities. Now you have a comprehensive IADS and the other side doesn't, whose strikes are likely to be more damaging?

Again you miss the primary point I've been making since the first paragraph i wrote in this conversation. Yes at a tactical level you may have some defense against air power, my point is so what? If you have lost your C4I capability, and if your IADS is reduced to tactical elements you can bet your ass you have, then that formation that your tac-SAM's are protecting will out-maneuvered, out-fought and decimated.
I'm talking about a tactical level IADS that functions outside of your regular theater wide network. For example an armored division makes a break through and is behind enemy lines read to encircle and destroy. But it's outside of the operational reach of the regular division level SAMs. As a result you can still have limited AD capabilities by datalinking tac-SAMs and the fighters supporting this advance, to prevent enemy CAS from decimating your armored force.

Your still missing my point. If we are talking about comparable powers (if we are not then there is no way the IADS would be under attack) and the defender has AEW, SAM's, a significant fighter presence, C3 redundant communications and mobile C2 ect, then the attacker will have more capable ISR, EW and air power. If they didn't they wouldn't be attacking.
So you're saying that nobody is going to attack unless the have a huge advantage? But we have so many conflicts from history were the attacker didn't have a huge advantage, or thought he did and turned out to be wrong, or forgot to account for certain variables, and as a result the playing field was evened out. This is why I'm saying that to asses the effectiveness of IADS (and by the way I don't understand why the IADS user has to be on the defensive? with all mobile SAMs, and making sure to capture enemy airfields intact as much as possible the IADS could move as part of the advancing forces, as was envisioned in the Soviet doctrine) we have to take other variables as equal.

Here's the critical point, relying on a defensive strategy in a scenario like this is going to end up in you loosing in 9 out of 10 cases.
Again, why defensive?

Now your talking about something all together different from the uber IADS described earlier with tipple digit SAMs, multiple (redundant) comm nodes, mobile & redundant C3, AWACS, fighters, tac-SAM's & AAA all networked and integrated, with MANPADS thrown in at low level. If you have all of that, and still posses the offensive capability to effectively penetrate the enemies defenses then you are probably dealing a lessor power anyway and you had no need for all of it in the fist place.[/quote]

If you're relatively equal across the spectrum, with your only disadvantage being that the enemy has IADS on a serious networked level and you don't, does that make you a lesser power?

Like i said before GBAD & ADS defiantly has its place on the modern battlefield, but the most successful strategy in state on state conflicts for the last 50 odd years has been pre-emption & offensive warfare. Relying on your IADS as the centerpiece of the air element of your campaign, as you appear to advocate, goes against the grain of recent military history. If you are forced into that position by being put in a position of disadvantage in the air, then relying one an uber, GBAD centric IADS is the only option, and if your up against a casualty averse western power, inflicting as many casualties as possible may indeed have strategic effects.
Why centerpiece? Where did I say that? I'm focusing on the IADS, because I don't think i honestly need to try to prove to you the need for an effective air superiority force. The question is what happens when both sides have relatively comparable A2A capabilities and one side has a networked IADS and the other doesn't?

By investing that heavily in your IADS you are doing so at the determent of your offensive capability. You have to look at the opportunity cost, there is only so much budget to go around.
Of course, but several things:
1) We have an artificial scenario to asses the capabilities of IADS. Once we know those, we can judge how much should be spent on it.
2) Decreasing marginal returns. Investing in capabilities across the spectrum is more advantageous then focusing in several narrow areas, and having nothing to account for the rest. Hence why even the US has SAMs, and uses extensive IADS for it's fleets.
 

Chrom

New Member
The Iraqi airforce was dislocated because the specforces and ewarfare teams rendered the bulk of the co-ordination and dispersed networking capability deaf and dumb.

it was a SYSTEMS event. The US deliberately degraded sectors of their grids to cause overload etc....

Some are mistaking the decapitation of their FCS and C3 systems as an air event - it was a precursor issue.
That was i meant. Iraq airforce, being comparable aged with SAM's, fared even worse than SAM's. So in fact, Iraq is good example what SAM's are best AD defense ;)
 

DarthAmerica

Defense Professional
Verified Defense Pro
That was i meant. Iraq airforce, being comparable aged with SAM's, fared even worse than SAM's. So in fact, Iraq is good example what SAM's are best AD defense ;)
It's not that SAMs are the best AD. They aren't and there is no best if at the end your leader ends up hanged. SAMs are just more survivable do to the fact that they don't have to operate from fixed locations and surveillance of ground based platforms is a lot more difficult. Even so, if you paid attention to Operation Allied Force. SAMs can survive and still be rendered completely ineffective, 2 planes shot down for 700 attempts! That leader ended up in jail BTW.

-DA
 

Chrom

New Member
It's not that SAMs are the best AD. They aren't and there is no best if at the end your leader ends up hanged. SAMs are just more survivable do to the fact that they don't have to operate from fixed locations and surveillance of ground based platforms is a lot more difficult. Even so, if you paid attention to Operation Allied Force. SAMs can survive and still be rendered completely ineffective, 2 planes shot down for 700 attempts! That leader ended up in jail BTW.

-DA
They are BOTH more survivable and more effective than airforce. See comparable results of Iraq aviation...

Besides, by your logic - tanks, artillery, ATGM's, soldiers and knifes - are completely useless as well. After all, "your" leader ends up hanged ;)

He wasnt protected solely by aviation, you know...

P.S. Ok, your version - what is the best AD? Surrender to USAF as soon as they funny look at you? Pretty smart move, but sadly outside sane military discussion.
 

DarthAmerica

Defense Professional
Verified Defense Pro
They are BOTH more survivable and more effective than airforce. See comparable results of Iraq aviation...

Besides, by your logic - tanks, artillery, ATGM's, soldiers and knifes - are completely useless as well. After all, "your" leader ends up hanged ;)

He wasnt protected solely by aviation, you know...

P.S. Ok, your version - what is the best AD? Surrender to USAF as soon as they funny look at you? Pretty smart move, but sadly outside sane military discussion.
Effective at what?

-DA
 

Chrom

New Member
Effective at what? Denying airspace?
The IDF/AF would probably disagree with you...
Yes, denying airspace. Why exactly IDF/AF would disagree?

Because they still won in Arab-Israel war? But again, Arab aviation showed even worser results than Arab SAM's...

P.S. Also, even 30-years old S-200 SAM have range about 300 km. Even 100km behind front lines, i would call it exactly purely defensive mean...
 

DarthAmerica

Defense Professional
Verified Defense Pro
Yes, denying airspace. Why exactly IDF/AF would disagree?

Because they still won in Arab-Israel war? But again, Arab aviation showed even worser results than Arab SAM's...

P.S. Also, even 30-years old S-200 SAM have range about 300 km. Even 100km behind front lines, i would call it exactly purely defensive mean...
How is it that people keep making this completely baseless claim? What airspace has been denied due to SAM or AAA? You can watch hours worth of video dating all the way back to WW II of air defenses being penetrated by aircraft bombing targets. Especially in modern times. If this is being said because SAMs and AAA shoot down a negligible percentage of sorties in conflicts and that percentage happens to be higher than what enemy fighters have managed then I'd say there is a misunderstanding of the word effective. You are looking at this the wrong way IMV.

-DA
 

Sintra

New Member
Yes, denying airspace. Why exactly IDF/AF would disagree?

Because they still won in Arab-Israel war? But again, Arab aviation showed even worser results than Arab SAM's...

P.S. Also, even 30-years old S-200 SAM have range about 300 km. Even 100km behind front lines, i would call it exactly purely defensive mean...
Compare the stats of the IDF/AF fighter force when on the air defense mission/CAP and/or the counter air mission with ANY AAA/SAM system used from the IWW to today...
 

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
Effective at what?

-DA
Hehehe. Effective at stopping the USAF from conducting CAS sorties over Iraq in ODS. Please, you were so quick to bash my idea of what AD should look like, give us your idea that would accomplish the goal.
 

Chrom

New Member
How is it that people keep making this completely baseless claim? What airspace has been denied due to SAM or AAA? You can watch hours worth of video dating all the way back to WW II of air defenses being penetrated by aircraft bombing targets. Especially in modern times. If this is being said because SAMs and AAA shoot down a negligible percentage of sorties in conflicts and that percentage happens to be higher than what enemy fighters have managed then I'd say there is a misunderstanding of the word effective. You are looking at this the wrong way IMV.

-DA
Ok.
Follow my logic:

Any country, willing to defend against enemy AF, have only 2 choices:

1. Bring fighters
2. Bring SAM's/AAA.

Now, the question - which way is more effective?

From past experience, the answer is obvious. SAM's are much more effective at defending, and sometimes even at attacking.

Examples: Israel-Arab war. Arabic aviation, being comparatively even more developed than Arabic SAM's, showed much worse results.

Vietnam: We all know how much USAF lost to fighters - and how much to AAA/SAM's.

Yugoslavia: We all know how well Yugoslavian fighters performed.

Iraq - both GW1 and GW2. Results are clear. Fighters are completely useless against much superior opponent. SAM's are marginally useful - but however marginally it is still way better than useless fighters.

Extrapolate it to more or less equal opponents. If SAM's performed much better than fighters against superior enemy, there is no reason why SAM's would not perform even better against equal or inferior enemy.

BTW, Iraq tanks didnt performed well either. Doesnt mean tanks are useless and should be all scraped. Hell, whole Iraq army performed very poor. Doesnt mean every country now should retire its army - after all, army didnt helped Iraq...

All this showed fatal flaw in your logic.
 

Sintra

New Member
Ok.
Follow my logic:

Any country, willing to defend against enemy AF, have only 2 choices:

1. Bring fighters
2. Bring SAM's/AAA.

Now, the question - which way is more effective?

From past experience, the answer is obvious. SAM's are much more effective at defending, and sometimes even at attacking.

Examples: Israel-Arab war. Arabic aviation, being comparatively even more developed than Arabic SAM's, showed much worse results.

Vietnam: We all know how much USAF lost to fighters - and how much to AAA/SAM's.

Yugoslavia: We all know how well Yugoslavian fighters performed.

Iraq - both GW1 and GW2. Results are clear. Fighters are completely useless against much superior opponent. SAM's are marginally useful - but however marginally it is still way better than useless fighters.

Extrapolate it to more or less equal opponents. If SAM's performed much better than fighters against superior enemy, there is no reason why SAM's would not perform even better against equal or inferior enemy.

BTW, Iraq tanks didnt performed well either. Doesnt mean tanks are useless and should be all scraped. Hell, whole Iraq army performed very poor. Doesnt mean every country now should retire its army - after all, army didnt helped Iraq...

All this showed fatal flaw in your logic.

If you want to deny an airspace bring a coherent system, backed up by well trained professional´s. That normally includes an Airforce backed by a land based defence and not the other way around.
By your own logic of "more or less equal opponents" you just have to substitute the "Arab Air Forces" by the IDF/AF, the fighter force of the Israeli State time over time has prevailed against aerial threats and heavilly equiped land based defences, they have outperformed their foes by pure competence, not by numbers, not by a massive technological advantage...
Bottom line, the IDF/AF have denied airspace by the use of highly trained FIGHTER pilots backed up by a coherent system, and the statistics of that fighter force are arguably superior to any historical land or naval based AAA/SAM system.

If you want a clear case of what a small, highly trained, fighter force backed up by a "decent" land (naval in this case) "system of systems", can do despite facing massive numbers, the Sea Harrier Fleet in 82 around the Falklands his a sterling example.
 
Last edited:

DarthAmerica

Defense Professional
Verified Defense Pro
Ok.
Follow my logic:

Any country, willing to defend against enemy AF, have only 2 choices:

1. Bring fighters
2. Bring SAM's/AAA.

Now, the question - which way is more effective?

From past experience, the answer is obvious. SAM's are much more effective at defending, and sometimes even at attacking.

Examples: Israel-Arab war. Arabic aviation, being comparatively even more developed than Arabic SAM's, showed much worse results.

Vietnam: We all know how much USAF lost to fighters - and how much to AAA/SAM's.

Yugoslavia: We all know how well Yugoslavian fighters performed.

Iraq - both GW1 and GW2. Results are clear. Fighters are completely useless against much superior opponent. SAM's are marginally useful - but however marginally it is still way better than useless fighters.

Extrapolate it to more or less equal opponents. If SAM's performed much better than fighters against superior enemy, there is no reason why SAM's would not perform even better against equal or inferior enemy.

BTW, Iraq tanks didnt performed well either. Doesnt mean tanks are useless and should be all scraped. Hell, whole Iraq army performed very poor. Doesnt mean every country now should retire its army - after all, army didnt helped Iraq...

All this showed fatal flaw in your logic.
You are not showing any flaws in my logic only your own misunderstanding. That SAMs and AAA shoot down more blue jets compared to fighters has nothing to with effectiveness, its the law of averages. There are many more SAM launchers and AAA systems concentrated that aircraft are exposing themselves to for longer. And how many red jets survived the blue air superiority fighters? If the enemy is able to hit 1 out of every 500 sorties and the blue airforce is flying 1000 sorties a day for 100 days then statistically such a campaign will see 200 jets hit assuming no effort is made to stop the SAM and AAA. Since a good percentage of the strikes will target the SAMs, AAA and supporting logistics infrastructure an already ineffective defense would be reduced further to what we typically see today. In the end you still have 998 successful penetrations daily of your airspace wreaking havoc. That is hardly something to praise for an air defense.

Feanor your absurd comment about CAS suggest that you study ODS. Iraqi IADs never stopped the CAS effort. If you need help understanding just ask. But lets stop making broad sweeping false assertions without any supporting evidence or just because you read something on a website. We have wasted a lot of time discussing this if people are still posting claims and assertions such as these.


-DA
 
Last edited:

gf0012-aust

Grumpy Old Man
Staff member
Verified Defense Pro
Hehehe. Effective at stopping the USAF from conducting CAS sorties over Iraq in ODS.

US (USAF/USN) CAS was never stopped in ODS. In fact it was constant for 100 days. That was the blatant telling example of how savagely it was suppressed to the point where the remaining systems (within 1 calendar week) lacked control, lacked interaction, lacked direction and where eventually battery commanders were too scared to light up what they thought might have been targets as they were never sure whether the target was a seducer or real. either way, once they turned on they were hit.

It's been the most brutal single example in modern history of how the battlespace can be denied to the defender.
 
Last edited:

Ozzy Blizzard

New Member
Feranor:

Thanks for the chat mate, It was stimulating. But I'm afraid i cant partake any more. Basically I've repeated myself 3 times already, and judging from your reply I'm just going to have to go over the exact same points AGAIN. In response to your post, I simply refer to my previous.

1 thing I will address. I'm aware of the RUAF's squadron/regiment structure, i was referring to the size of their formations. AFAIK USAF squadrons are around the 24 platform mark, the same strength as a Russian fighter regiment, just like a Russian S-300 battalion is the same strength as a US PATRIOT battery. I was commenting on the Russians tenancy to move formation names down a notch, they've done it for a long time, pre WW2 i.e. a tank corps was similar in strength to a German Panzer division, and that difference filtered down the formation chain.
 

kato

The Bunker Group
Verified Defense Pro
AFAIK USAF squadrons are around the 24 platform mark
Sorry, but most USAF squadrons were downsized to 18 platforms back in 1992, although a number of squadrons have remained at or were reinstated to 24 platforms.
As of 1996, bombing squadrons were at 12, fighter at 18, some selected fighter/strike up to 24. EW and other diverse squadron types are mostly around 4-6 platforms.
 

Ozzy Blizzard

New Member
Sorry, but most USAF squadrons were downsized to 18 platforms back in 1992, although a number of squadrons have remained at or were reinstated to 24 platforms.
As of 1996, bombing squadrons were at 12, fighter at 18, some selected fighter/strike up to 24. EW and other diverse squadron types are mostly around 4-6 platforms.
1996??? Is that so? I remember reading that F-22A squadrons had been cut from 24 to 18 platforms in order to make the number stretch a tad.

Anyway this doesn't alter my point, a RuAF Regiment is more akin to a USAF fighter squadron than a fighter wing.
 
Status
Not open for further replies.
Top