Balance of Power

[lobbie111]

Being the cynic that I am, I proclaim WW3, there is no way to avoid it, we have told oursleves that we have learned from history, but really we havn't, this war will be the war to end all wars, there will only be one winner...

Heres my chain of events...

India and Pakistan spiral out of control

Chinese peace keepers are deployed, they are attacked by both nations

China then invades both nations fully taking over south east asia in the process

The west mnus europe gets too nervous and goes to war with china

The west, in trouble calls on Europe for help, they accept

The conflict spreads to the middle east

The west uses Australia, Africa and south america as bases for their attack/defence

Chinese Spies launch an attack on south america and africa causing africa and south america to become their own entities, the west leave, china sees its opportunity, this becomes a bloothbath

A stalemate occurs

Nuclear war ensues, the most isolated nations survive...

again another 2c

 

[Chino]

Heres my chain of events...

...yeah, you ought to be chained up somewhere...

China then invades both nations ...
Chinese Spies launch an attack on south america and africa ...
china sees its opportunity, this becomes a bloothbath

... and the key thrown away.nfloorl:

 

[kato]

Furthermore, irregardless of how many pieces of paper is signed, EU will always be made up of many different countries, each with their own private and possibly conflicting agendas.

Give it 200 years and a couple of major internal wars among members, including kicking some of the periphery out.

Cue Replay of Germany 1815 to 1994.

 

[Kosovo=Serbia]

Nuclear war ensues, the most isolated nations survive...

eskimo ?

Lobbie 111, man, where is Russia there ?

And when it suppose to happen ? I mean....
....Is there sense to struggle with college, or should I buy 10 bear cistern, park
it on mountain meadow and lie down below tree, and drink it on "eks"

No man, there is no WW3, it will never happen. . .
People are crazy, greedy, "high" , stupid and mind fucked up
now, more than ever, but still not enough to blow up itself,
Trust me, relax, and forget about it, there are still good people and there will
always be good people to prevent it.

 

[lobbie111]

...yeah, you ought to be chained up somewhere...




... and the key thrown away.nfloorl:

If only...If only...I don't like global war I just know its going to happen, and there is nothing any of us can do about it...:daz

Well I'll get back to eating my :spam and making my new aluminium foil hat to keep the governments satelites from accessing my brain :knight (closest I could find to a aluminium hat haha)

 

[Feanor]

...yeah, you ought to be chained up somewhere...

... and the key thrown away.nfloorl:

If only this was possible over the internet.

 

[IrishHitman]

1. It is ridiculous compare military power of EU vs China.

Furthermore, irregardless of how many pieces of paper is signed, EU will always be made up of many different countries, each with their own private and possibly conflicting agendas.
But even NATO has become a bit of a lame duck post-Cold War. EU a military power? In theory, maybe...

2. Unfortunately, "impressive military support" sometimes changes.... absolutely nothing. (Reference South Vietnam.)

3. Oh, you mean China has ACTUALLY invaded Taiwan and failed?

C'mon... even the Taiwanese are not as confident and they would know better than you? Wouldn't they?

In fact, how much do you think you know about the actual history and political cat-and-mousing that both of them are playing?
There are at least A HUNDRED THOUSAND Taiwanese living and working in Shanghai alone as we speak. The figure quoted is usually much higher.
Does this look like a state of war?
In fact, both China and Taiwan are practically on the way to re-unification in everything but name.
So the fact that an invasion hasn't occurred is maybe because they are NOT in a hurrry to kill each other - nothing to do with actual military capabilities or otherwise.
And it would take a Kilkenny or Guinness Stout-guzzling Irishman a very long time and you still WON'T understand the exact nature of what's going on between the two.

4.
Yes, very foolish indeed.

One thing is very clear: China KNOWS it is not liked by the west. And that China must have enough military clout to make sure this discrimination does not get expression beyond a few pathetic protests here and there etc.

But top superpower?

They will never be that strong, number one... and two, I don't think they have that desire.

1.
That is a very narrow view to have of the EU. Considering that Britain, France and Germany are already military powers, and other EU states have considerable military might of their own, the EU already is a military power.

The problem with it at the moment, is agreement. Not too different to any other democratic military power. It takes something considerable to allow war.

2.
True, but it increases India's chances.

3.
My point is Chinese attacks on Taiwan without the use of nuclear weapons would most likely be very costly, or result in a defeat. Saying that their argument has been solved would be politically incorrect, considering that war is on the table if Taiwan becomes independent, and any country that recognises Taiwan is immediately cut off by the PRC.
On the way to reunification? The current government are pro-independence.
They do, however, wish to have better relations with China..

4.
You underestimate the long term ambition of the CCP.

 

[dHAKAPETE]

to follow up on the Isishhitman post above on "the long term ambition of the CCP" one provocative theory on the resons for the Junta's delay in allowing international specialists and military into Myanmar to support relief efforts may, theoretically, be to allow time for PRC specialists, potentially in Myanmar to construct forward military bases, to temporarily suspend ongoing projects in country and keep such projects out of sight of hoards of visiting international military. PRC have an extremely strong presence in Myanmar and are increasingly courting stronger ties with Bangladesh to the North. It could be argued they have strong ambition in the Bay of Bengal and in particular control of sea lanes between East / South East Asia through to India and the West.

 

[Chino]

1.

On the way to reunification? The current government are pro-independence.
They do, however, wish to have better relations with China..

Just a quick reply.

I was in Taiwan twice last month. I have lived 6 years in HK and am now in my sixth year in Shanghai.

The next Taiwan government is already elected. The anti-independence KMT will be in power next. The people of Taiwan have spoken.

 

[IrishHitman]

Just a quick reply.

I was in Taiwan twice last month. I have lived 6 years in HK and am now in my sixth year in Shanghai.

The next Taiwan government is already elected. The anti-independence KMT will be in power next. The people of Taiwan have spoken.

Oh really? Very good news for the One China policy.

 

[swerve]

to follow up on the Isishhitman post above on "the long term ambition of the CCP" one provocative theory on the resons for the Junta's delay in allowing international specialists and military into Myanmar to support relief efforts may, theoretically, be to allow time for PRC specialists, potentially in Myanmar to construct forward military bases, to temporarily suspend ongoing projects in country and keep such projects out of sight of hoards of visiting international military. PRC have an extremely strong presence in Myanmar and are increasingly courting stronger ties with Bangladesh to the North. It could be argued they have strong ambition in the Bay of Bengal and in particular control of sea lanes between East / South East Asia through to India and the West.

Actually, the Mynmar junta aren't really keeping foreign military out of the country (nobody is trying to get troops into the country, just military transport aircraft to Yangon airport & military transport ships to the port), but foreign civilian aid workers, & even civilian planes full of civilian aid. Ban Ki-Moon spent days trying to talk to someone senior, to get permission for World Food Programme aid deliveries (no foreign soldiers involved in them), & was constantly fobbed off by minor officials.

By some accounts, the Myanmarese were even reluctant to let Chinese troops* deliver aid, which is quite bizarre. No, this is nothing to do with foreign troops & Chinese bases. Nothing so rational. The Chinese wouldn't be exasperated with Myanmar over it if it was. It's to do with the Myanmar juntas paranoia, insularity, separation from reality (remember the election they called in 1990 & didn't bother to rig because they believed they'd win it? They got 21.2% of the vote), & weird form of pride. They'd find it humiliating to let foreigners deliver aid, & would rather let their own people die than face that embarassment. They probably don't realise how bad things are, & the low-level officials who do know daren't tell them. They want aid delivery to be done by their people, so they get the credit for it within the country. They don't realise how little they're capable of delivering (lots of little Potemkins in Myanmar, methinks), & how much will get stolen. Some of them want to steal the aid themselves, to feed their own troops. They suspect foreign aid organisations of being fronts for spying, or wanting to spread propaganda along with aid, or both. Etc.

*Busy in Szechuan now, of course. But note the contrast! China, with its vastly greater resources, has thanked foreigners for their offers of earthquake aid, & accepted them as offered, subject only to the normal, sensible, co-ordination to make sure that they don't get more of X than they can use & not enough of Y, & that aid workers are useful, & is imposing few restrictions on foreign journalists visiting the area, & those mostly understandable in terms of not wanting transport, etc., swamped by reporters. China is now showing what Myanmar should have done.

 

[kato]

Wasn't China a couple years ago still pretty busy trying to combat the drug trade in the Golden Triangle, in particular from Myanmar into the PRC? Without much success due to corruption at lower levels in the affected Chinese regions.

I'm still trying to find that ~15yo USMC OPFOR scenario for an intervention in Myanmar that i mentioned somewhere in some different thread btw.

 

[Chino]

1.
That is a very narrow view to have of the EU. Considering that Britain, France and Germany are already military powers, and other EU states have considerable military might of their own, the EU already is a military power.

The problem with it at the moment, is agreement. Not too different to any other democratic military power. It takes something considerable to allow war.

Basically you said what I was saying but in different words. We all know Germany, France etc are all very powerful countries. But they have their differences so unless something considerable happen like you said, they will more likely disagree than agree on many many things.

3.
My point is Chinese attacks on Taiwan without the use of nuclear weapons would most likely be very costly, or result in a defeat. Saying that their argument has been solved would be politically incorrect, considering that war is on the table if Taiwan becomes independent, and any country that recognises Taiwan is immediately cut off by the PRC.
On the way to reunification? The current government are pro-independence.
They do, however, wish to have better relations with China..

I already answered the new government will be KMT and thus anti-independence.

Direct flights between Shanghai and Taipei are scheduled to begin this July - one month before Olympics - earliest, end of the year latest.

Nuclear war? ... so far all this is just posturing.

There isn't real deep hatred between China Chinese and Taiwan Chinese today (unlike N and S Koreans). Maybe 50 years ago, but today, they just dislike and distrust each other.

4.
You underestimate the long term ambition of the CCP.

And you lot over there as usual overestimate the threat. Maybe the truth is somewhere in between.

China would want to be a regional power, for sure. But even this will be a difficult feat to achieve. For a giant weakling like the PLA, just being absolute boss in this tough neighbourhood could take forever. Everyone's armed with the latest stuff and show no sign of slowing the buildup. Plus of course, the US is always around.

In fact, I reckon they would never achieve absolute military superiority in their own neighbourhood like the way US is in theirs. Ultimately China is still itself very very vulnerable to attack unlike the US in its unique geographic situation.

 

[Chino]

There's an airbase in Shanghai and its locally-made fighter aircrafts sometimes buzz over the part of the city where I live.

By my estimate, they fly at most 2 or 3 times a week, though not always over the city, I'm sure.

In Singapore, we're all used to hearing jet fighter sonic boom every single day without fail including now the strange rotor sound of the new Apache Longbows.

 

[the road runner]

Well my $1.50 worth!
I honestley think China will have alot of internal turmoil with its people.
I see the pesants revolting as middle class and rich become even more wealthy.land is constantley stolen off the poor to make way for new buildings and infastructure.I think China will not be able to hold its country together , states will split up(just like has happened with the USSR)
China dose have a large navy,army and air force and they are modernising there defence forces but i think that the Chinese cannot design a system or platform that is 100% chinese made.They often buy off Russia and get technological transfers(Russia will continue to "MILK THE COW")
Also i take into account that China has never invaded another country in its 5000 year hisory(people will talk about Tibet,but china has always seen Tibet as Chinese.I do think the chinese are a very smart race when it comes to making war,but i think they like the softly softly approach and are trying to become more involved in the world of politiks.(im probably wrong but im sure my views will change once i read what other members have to say)

As for India and Pakistan,well this is where i see war or a skirmish occuring
These 2 countrys have a history of mis trust and have had a number of border skirmishes and wars.If anything i see India as the leading power in the
region and here is why.India and israel will and have collaborated on a number of joint ventures.I.E. SU 30 avionics,Awacs,Air defence system and naval technology.India buys off Russia but i see them moving to the west and purchasing massive amounts of EU and US systems.(honestley think the F-18E/F will win the contract to supply the 126+up to 200 aircraft order)
I see India ,as the wests policy ,on containing China.
The US had problems with China recieving an AWACS of Israel<<<<so it was sold to India.I just see this as a means to contain China while making India stronger.India is my Pick for regional power as they will buy off Russia,US,Israel and EU.
China ,well i cannot see China buying off the US unless it is Boeing 747,767,737 ect for their airline industry.Cannot imagine a F-18E/F in PLAF colours.

AND for Australia, we will continue to invest in military equipment,new ships such as AWD,LHD and COLLINS2<<<<<<<<<all build in Australia with technoligical transfers and we will have the understanding to build,repair and ensure life support of the ship.<<<< i see this as AUSTRALIAS greatest asset in the comming future,beieng able to build our own Naval stuff<<<its GREAT!
Also new F18 SUPERS and lets not forget the 5th generation JSF when everyone in the region will have 3rd,4th and 4.5th generation fighters
ALSO we have jorn workin, soon with the RAAFs 737 wedgetail AWACS ,what a system we will have!I honestley think these systems and platforms will be way advanced of any adversary in our region. Honestley think our Navy should be a bit bigger(but were dose the $$$$$ and people come from<that is the problem)

Singapore i see as a dominate power in SE Asia.It has 6 modern frigates in various stages of construction,2 subs and a number of auxilery and replenishment ships,and corvettts.Also it will soon field F-15 beagles with a moders ASEA radar added.it has 50 odd F-16 falcons, 4 awacs supply and transport planes.

Indonesia well to much infigting and corruption involved in there country,wouldnt want to be in the indonesian navy or airforce NOW!

Malaysia well they will be malaysia buying off Russia and USA and playing one against the other.they will have a very effective airforce but i think to much money wold be squanded on 2 types of aircraftI.E su-30, fa-18c/d.
Malaysia is considered a medium power in se asia.


To Summarise my view
I think India will be the major power in the region as they will develope there defence industry with US,EU and Russian help,while also having the backing of the west to contain CHINA.

WHAT DO YOU GUYS THINK<<<<<<critisism is wanted as debate will give understanding of othere views and opinions :lul

MEEP MEEP

 

[Chino]

WHAT DO YOU GUYS THINK<<<<<<critisism is wanted etc etc :lul

MEEP MEEP

Here's a criticism (but don't take it too hard):

Please stop signing off with "meep meep".

It makes you sound like you are 9 years old and it lowers the standard of this forum.

Sorry...

 

[Salty Dog]

Russia's president urges strategic missile forces development

Russia's president urges strategic missile forces development

15/05/2008 16:54 TEIKOVO (Ivanovo Region), May 15 (RIA Novosti) - Russian President Dmitry Medvedev said on Thursday the country must continue to develop its Strategic Missile Forces (SMF) to meet global threats.

"Our task for the next few years will be to secure necessary funding for the SMF, which must be able to face the current level of threats and the global situation," Medvedev said during a visit to the 54th Strategic Missile Division based near the town of Teikovo, about 150 miles (240 km) northeast of Moscow.

At present, Russia deploys Topol-M (NATO reporting name SS-27) ballistic missiles as the mainstay of its land-based component of the nuclear triad. As of December 2007, Russia's SMF operated 48 silo-based and three mobile Topol-M missile systems.

The missile, with a range of about 7,000 miles (11,000 km), is said to be immune to any current and future U.S. ABM defense. It is capable of making evasive maneuvers to avoid a kill using terminal phase interceptors, and carries targeting countermeasures and decoys.

It is also shielded against radiation, electromagnetic pulse, nuclear blasts, and is designed to survive a hit from any known form of laser technology.

The first Topol-M mobile missile battalion, equipped with three road-mobile systems, was put on combat duty with the 54th Strategic Missile Division on December 12, 2006.

SMF commander, Col. General Nikolai Solovtsov, who accompanied the president during the visit, said a second missile battalion, equipped with Topol-M mobile ICBMs, would be put on combat duty in the near future and the division would be in full strength by 2010.

Russia puts an average of three mobile and three or four fixed-site Topol-M ballistic missile systems into operation every year.

Solovtsov earlier said that Russia would equip the Topol-M missile systems with multiple independently targetable reentry vehicles (MIRV) in the next two or three years.

At the end of his visit, Medvedev said Russia's Security Council would meet soon to discuss the current status and the future development of the SMF.

http://en.rian.ru/russia/20080515/107462801.html

The article makes no mention of SSBN forces.

 

[IrishHitman]

Never say never Chino.

History has taught us that the "weak" states that gain power little by little under the noses of the "strong" states end up prevailing. Saying China has no truly great ambitions would be a mistake, especially given the recent involvement in Africa.

 

[Feanor]

Here's the real mainstay of Russian ground-based nuclear forces:

The Strategic Rocket Forces have 430 operational missile systems that include missiles that can carry 1605 warheads. These include 75 R-36MUTTH and R-36M2 (SS-18) missiles, 100 UR-100NUTTH (SS-19) missiles, 201 road-mobile Topol (SS-25) systems, 48 silo-based and 6 road-mobile Topol-M (SS-27) systems.

http://russianforces.org/current/

EDIT: Note how few Topol-M's there are? They are nowhere near the mainstay of the nuclear land-based forces. The mainstay is old Soviet Topol, and SS-18, SS-19 silo-based.

 

[the road runner]

OK Chino point taken,im sorry if i ofended anyone!