Russia vs Azerbaijan

[wormbyte]

This is my first post on this forum so go easy on me, because my knowledge comes no where close to you guys.

I have writing a scenario where by there has been a coup within Russia leading to a former soviet hardliner taking power of the country.

My question is this:

If Russia was to attack Azerbaijan because of it's military reserve, would this cause a military response from any other country? Especially military powers in the west.

I was going to have the scenario pan out so that Russian would start by launching an offensive against Azerbaijan before moving on to other energy producing states within the Caucasus region, such as kazakhstan and then taking control of the Caspian Sea and the oil reserves located there.

But would Russian have the military power to take control of this area? And as I said before, would it cause a military response from the west?

You thoughts would be much appreciated.

 

[Chrom]

This is my first post on this forum so go easy on me, because my knowledge comes no where close to you guys.

I have writing a scenario where by there has been a coup within Russia leading to a former soviet hardliner taking power of the country.

My question is this:

If Russia was to attack Azerbaijan because of it's military reserve, would this cause a military response from any other country? Especially military powers in the west.

Obviously impossible to answer with any degree of credibility. However, that means you can speculate on that matter all you want and noone can say "it is impossible!"

I was going to have the scenario pan out so that Russian would start by launching an offensive against Azerbaijan before moving on to other energy producing states within the Caucasus region, such as kazakhstan and then taking control of the Caspian Sea and the oil reserves located there.

But would Russian have the military power to take control of this area? And as I said before, would it cause a military response from the west?

You thoughts would be much appreciated.

As for responce - look q1. As for military power - depends. Certainly, regular army in all ex-USSR countries are no match for russian army. It will be no show. But unregular combatants resistance - is a whole another matter. A lot will be depended from propaganda, russian internal politic, foreign support for rebels, etc, etc. As in any partizan war...

 

[wormbyte]

Thank you for your response.

I have just realised that I made a significantly large typo within my first post.

"If Russia was to attack Azerbaijan because of it's military reserve, would this cause a military response from any other country? Especially military powers in the west."

Should have been ....

"If Russia was to attack Azerbaijan because of it's ENERGY (oil and gas) reserve, would this cause a military response from any other country? Especially military powers in the west."

 

[Zhengwei]

An opinion

As a student of war and it my bread and butter I often view Russia in the periphery as I have the luxury of living south of her. You bring up an interesting point and one should note that the distance that Azerbaijan has staked from Russia since 1991. We won't elaborate on all that now but the key significance is the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan oil pipeline (Georgia-another country on Russia's shit list) and the 'Red Leash' that Russia continues to exert in an unsurprisingly reactionary posture. Aliyev earned his way to power on the promise of a truly independent Azerbaijan but this is doubtful because of surrogate energy and commercial trade combined with the new 'corporate divide and conquer' strategy Russia has employed. This is not to say that Baku has slacked in its determination, refusing to deliver oil to Tiblssi and cutting Russian television as well as strengthening ties with western nations (not to a serious degree the US right now for several reasons) mainly Turkey, the EU to a degree, and it's other -stan neighbors.
As with almost every CIS, Russia left them with a barebones military that did manage to mobilize and become professional but is concentrating solely on its own stability and defense. Besides the very idea that it would come to blows between these two that have such a complex relationship I believe is, at this time, next to impossible. Russia would catch hell diplomatically but no one wants to rub glass in an infected wound, there would be no US or UN assistance unless short of ethnic cleansing was happening in its borders. We will see the CIS AND Russia AND West play out in an often painful game of chess (or the English game Chutes and Ladders if you want) for years to come before comfort is found.

 

[Lostfleet]

A Russian invasion is always a possibility, especially using any upcoming civil unrest as a cause to intervene ( to bring stability etc) however you should not forget that an Iranian invasion is possible as the Russian alternative. ( either using their own Azeri population as a justification or using no justification for invasion at all)

 

[Zhengwei]

Ah, yes. One can never discount a Russian incursion, there are countless examples of post-Soviet intervention in the name of 'security' or under the UN even. The probability of such is weak in Baku, Russia is in a position of non-intervention partially to refocus on domestic issues and partially to make the US stick out like a sore thumb with its 'hard power'. If Russia's sovereignty or their prime strategic interests are threatened they are not afraid to be forcible (see Yugoslav-Serbian 1999 conflict where Russia occupied an airport and threatened to move its regulars in to restore peace) even in its weaker point. Just remember that it is a chess game (and who is damnably outstanding at that game?) Russia intends to fully reestablish its MIC [military industrial complex] and attempt once again to be a prodigal superpower. But that is another topic altogether

 

[Yasin20]

you know there are states that have signed a pact to defend each other like kazakistan azerbaijan turkmenistan uzbekistan tajikistan kirgistan as well

 

[Lostfleet]

Signing a pact is a good way to deter any possible war however when the real fight begins, it is not hundred percent guaranteed that the members of the pact will come to aid.

Even during the cold war, US was not sure if all of the members would contribute to the war if there was any conflict.

 

[Yasin20]

then i dont know what will happen lets hope this whont realy happen in the future becouse theres a price in every war not money the price is how much life must you pay for this kinde of war

 

[PullerRommel]

Isnt Russia also have a pact with some of the countries mentioned that have a pact with Azerbaijin(sp?)?

 

[Chrom]

Isnt Russia also have a pact with some of the countries mentioned that have a pact with Azerbaijin(sp?)?

Yes. At least Kazakhstan, Tajikistan, Kirgizia from mentioned have really close military and political ties with Russia.

They are part of CSTO defence pact ( Russia, Belarus, Armenia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Uzbekistan.) and CSO political organizations (China, Russia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Uzbekistan)

As can be seen, Azerbaijan in any military conflict with Russia will remain most likely alone.

 

[Atilla [TR]]

If there was a military inrcusion into Azerbaijan then her Turkish neighbors would help from on both sides of Azerbaijan, I dunno but something like that happened to Azerbaijan, and the neighbors helped a huge greater Turkism would erupt and even if Russia captured Azerbaijan and a few of other Turkish nations manly to the east of Azerbaijan you would see rebellion far worse then Chechnya and even the Tatars in Russia might get worked up.

 

[Chrom]

If there was a military inrcusion into Azerbaijan then her Turkish neighbors would help from on both sides of Azerbaijan, I dunno but something like that happened to Azerbaijan, and the neighbors helped a huge greater Turkism would erupt and even if Russia captured Azerbaijan and a few of other Turkish nations manly to the east of Azerbaijan you would see rebellion far worse then Chechnya and even the Tatars in Russia might get worked up.

Hmm, i dont think so. Azerbaijan peoples never were as cruel and warlike as Chechens. Tatars... lol. They are completely different entity. If they didnt rebelled during Chechens war - then they will not be upset about Azerbaijan either. I repeat, they are COMPLETELY different. They are not even caucasic.

 

[Atilla [TR]]

Hmm, i dont think so. Azerbaijan peoples never were as cruel and warlike as Chechens. Tatars... lol. They are completely different entity. If they didnt rebelled during Chechens war - then they will not be upset about Azerbaijan either. I repeat, they are COMPLETELY different. They are not even caucasic.

You are so wrong! Tatars are Turkish decent(In fact during the soviet union they where hated by Russians because the Soviet Union said they where Turkish spies) Chechens are not, but Azeris would go crazy if there land got taken over maybe not to a larger degree like Chechens.

 

[Chrom]

You are so wrong! Tatars are Turkish decent(In fact during the soviet union they where hated by Russians because the Soviet Union said they where Turkish spies) Chechens are not, but Azeris would go crazy if there land got taken over maybe not to a larger degree like Chechens.

Lol. Tatars are turkish? In historical aspect - somewhat true. To the about same degree as current Germans living in Trier - are the romans. Current tatars living in Russia have very little in common with Turks, and anyway they feel itself as part of native russian population, with full religy spectrum (mostly islam and christian ortodox), and view azerbajans as completely foreign folks.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tatars

In Europe, they were assimilated by the local Turkic populations or their name spread to the conquered peoples: Kipchaks, Volga Bulgars, Alans, Kimaks and others; and elsewhere with Finno-Ugric speaking peoples, as well as with remnants of the ancient Greek colonies in the Crimea and Caucasians in the Caucasus.

Tatars of Siberia are survivors of the Turkic population of the Ural-Altaic region, mixed to some extent with the speakers of Uralic languages, as well as with Mongols. Later, each group adopted Turkic languages and many adopted Islam. At the beginning of 20th century, most of those groups, except the Volga Tatars and Crimean Tatars adopted their own ethnic names and now are not referred to as Tatars, being Tatars or Tartars only in historical context. Now the name Tatars is generally applied to two ethnic groups: Volga Tatars (or simply Tatars) and Crimean Tatars. However, some indigenous peoples of Siberia are also traditionally named Tatars, such as Chulym Tatars.

As you see, there is no such unified entity as "tatars". Many different folks carry that name. Believe me, absolutely most of them dont care about Turks or Azerbajan at all.

Btw, Turkic doesnt equal Turkish. It is just common racial and language type like f.e. "Indo-European" or "roman" family languages type.

 

[Atilla [TR]]

Lol. Tatars are turkish? In historical aspect - somewhat true. To the about same degree as current Germans living in Trier - are the romans. Current tatars living in Russia have very little in common with Turks, and anyway they feel itself as part of native russian population, with full religy spectrum (mostly islam and christian ortodox), and view azerbajans as completely foreign folks.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tatars



As you see, there is no such unified entity as "tatars". Many different folks carry that name. Believe me, absolutely most of them dont care about Turks or Azerbajan at all.

Btw, Turkic doesnt equal Turkish. It is just common racial and language type like f.e. "Indo-European" or "roman" family languages type.

I am pretty sure they have it burned in there memory that they are Turkish since Russian back in the days that they where Soviet, had propaganda going around saying do not trust Tartars they are Turkish spies working for Turkey. And everyone Turkic are related in fact there are a group of people outside the Turkic people that are related to Turkic people, there are Tatars walking on the streets of Turkey right now they are not Turkic, they speak tatar which is very similar to Turkish, don't you think that a Turk will know more about Turks?

 

[Chrom]

I am pretty sure they have it burned in there memory that they are Turkish since Russian back in the days that they where Soviet, had propaganda going around saying do not trust Tartars they are Turkish spies working for Turkey. And everyone Turkic are related in fact there are a group of people outside the Turkic people that are related to Turkic people, there are Tatars walking on the streets of Turkey right now they are not Turkic, they speak tatar which is very similar to Turkish, don't you think that a Turk will know more about Turks?

They burned it deep in the memory from 500 to 1500 years ago, depending from region. And most of them never had anything with turks common anyway. This have absolutely nothing to do with soviet times. Turks surely know more about turks (of course not all turks know lol), but tatars do not equal turks. May be tatars, well, know more about tatars? Dont you think?

And right now 99% tatars in ex-USSR (let alone Russia) have absolutely no connection with turks.

 

[s3kiz]

Dear Chrom you seem to be greatly misinformed about the Tatar Turks, and unlike you claim the Tatar Turks (not just the ones in Crimea peninsula) are aware of their history and heritage.

All historians, etymologists and the Tatar Turks themselves prove to be a Turkish people sharing the same roots, heritage as dozens of different Turkish people around the world with different prefixes like Tatar, Pechenek, Nogay, Gagauz, Azeri, Kazak, Kiman/Kuman, Uzbek, Turkmen, Kirgiz, Kipchak, Bulgar (yes, the word "bulgar" comes from the first tribes that settled in nowaday Bulgaria who were a Turkish tribe before the geography became Slavic in time, keeping the name) just to name a few.

Theres dozens of such examples of various tribe names that all go back to the same shared Turkish origins in history and currently share the same culture, heritage, beliefs, traditions and language with natural accentual differences due to the vast geography and history these people have had and do currently occupy.

The relations between the state and civilian counterparts between Republic of Turkiye, and Tatar Turks widespread across a vast geography including the autonomous Crimean Tatar State in Ukraine and Republic of Tataristan in Russia are speacial and encompassing.

They continually participate in all the official and NGO events that are held annually like the "world Turkish people" confrences and congresses regarding cultural and political cooperations between all the Turkish people from all corners of the world whether they live in an independent, autonomous countries/states or in lands under foreign rule, like those in Russia, China, Greece, Bulgaria, Macedonia, Kosovo, Bosnia, Albania, Moldovia, Ukraine, Romania, Iraq, Iran, Georgia.

Some might not know well who they are but they certainly do.

"Tatars (Tatar: Tatarlar/Татарлар), sometimes spelled Tartar...are a Turkic ethnic group.

The name "Tatar" initially appeared amongst the nomadic Turkic peoples of northeastern Mongolia in the region around Lake Baikal in the beginning of the 5th century.These people may have been related to the Cumans or the Kipchaks (other Turkish tribes). The Chinese term is Dada and is a comparatively specific term for nomads to the north, emerging in the late Tang. Other names include Dadan and Tatan.

As various of these nomadic groups became part of Genghis Khan's army in the early 13th century, a fusion of Mongol and Turkic (relatives of each other) elements took place, and the invaders of Rus and Hungary became known to Europeans as Tatars (or Tartars). After the break up of the empire, the Tatars became especially identified with the western part of the empire, which included most of European Russia and was known as the Golden Horde."
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tatars


http://www.unpo.org/member_profile.php?id=20

http://www.turkiye.net/sota/sota.html

http://www.tatar.ru/

http://www.euronet.nl/users/sota/krimtatar.html

http://www.britannica.com/eb/topic-143037/Crimean-Tatar-language

http://www.euronet.nl/users/sota/krfacts.html

A few examples of their cultural websites:

http://www.vatankirim.net/

http://www.bahcesaray.info

http://www.tatardunyasi.com

Back on topic, I dont see any possibility of a Russian invasion of Azerbaijan at all, the whole world power balances will be upturned, resulting into a great war, including Turkiye.

Cheers.

 

[s3kiz]

Just as an addition to the off-topic discussion that has been going on here.

Think of China, the people that make up majority of China are Chinese as all know, but this doesnt mean that the people in Taiwan, or the Chinese in Malaysia, are different, with politics and borders maybe.

A better example could be the Arabs. Think of Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, its people are Arabs as we all now, it has the "Arab" definition in its name too, this doesnt mean that the people in Palestine, Jordan, Syria, Iraq, Yemen, UAE, Egypt, Qatar etc are not Arabs. Sure they have their differences, but they are Arabs.

Same thing with Turks, my country Turkiye Cumhuriyeti (Republic of Turkiye) has the word "Turk" in it, likewise with Republic of Turkmenistan in central asia, this doesnt mean that been a "Turk" is limited to these only two countries and not the other people we mentioned.

We have seen many political thoughts and aims to divide the Turks in history, since ancient times. The nearest and best remembered example to this aim to divide can be seen in the Soviet Union era, where the communists segregated each Turkish tribes that make up the people in central asia, also knows as Turkistan as a geography (with East Turkistan been the Xinjiang province of nowaday China inhabited by 30 million Uygur Turks), into tribe names (Azeri, Kazak, Turkmen, Uzbek, Kirgiz, Tatar etc) for close to a century to divide-and-rule.

Anyway I touched on this matter a bit in the thread entitled "Balance of Power" , located at:

http://www.defencetalk.com/forums/showthread.php?t=7459

Sorry for the deviation of topic, but there was great grave preponderate mistakefull claims been made here.

Cheers.

Back on to the topic.

 

[Chrom]

Just as an addition to the off-topic discussion that has been going on here.

Think of China, the people that make up majority of China are Chinese as all know, but this doesnt mean that the people in Taiwan, or the Chinese in Malaysia, are different, with politics and borders maybe.

A better example could be the Arabs. Think of Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, its people are Arabs as we all now, it has the "Arab" definition in its name too, this doesnt mean that the people in Palestine, Jordan, Syria, Iraq, Yemen, UAE, Egypt, Qatar etc are not Arabs. Sure they have their differences, but they are Arabs.

Same thing with Turks, my country Turkiye Cumhuriyeti (Republic of Turkiye) has the word "Turk" in it, likewise with Republic of Turkmenistan in central asia, this doesnt mean that been a "Turk" is limited to these only two countries and not the other people we mentioned.

We have seen many political thoughts and aims to divide the Turks in history, since ancient times. The nearest and best remembered example to this aim to divide can be seen in the Soviet Union era, where the communists segregated each Turkish tribes that make up the people in central asia, also knows as Turkistan as a geography (with East Turkistan been the Xinjiang province of nowaday China inhabited by 30 million Uygur Turks), into tribe names (Azeri, Kazak, Turkmen, Uzbek, Kirgiz, Tatar etc) for close to a century to divide-and-rule.

Anyway I touched on this matter a bit in the thread entitled "Balance of Power" , located at:

http://www.defencetalk.com/forums/showthread.php?t=7459

Sorry for the deviation of topic, but there was great grave preponderate mistakefull claims been made here.

Cheers.

Back on to the topic.

Ok, whatever tatars turks or not from your POV doesnt matter the slightest - the important what tatars in Russia think themselves. They are generally fully integrated in russian society and have nothing in common with turks. 70% do not even speak tatars language. They have less in common with turks than Poland peoples with Serbian peoples. Btw, they are both slavic...

You are very wrong if you think tatars will feel anything wrong in case of conflict against Azerbaijan or Turkey. There was nothing similar in Armenia-Azerbaijan conflict times - and these were much, much more irritating times. So, in current, much more content situation - tatars will remain neutral even more so.