A military action in Burma.

[funtz]

Now before i start i know it is highly (almost certainly) unlikely that any such action will happen, this is for the sake of discussion.

If the democratic movement picks up more pace and the military leadership decides on absolutely crushing the movement through deadly force, there will be a need of action from the world.

The trouble with sanctions will be the fact that India and China will continue to invest heavily into Myanmar energy sector as both the Asian giants are resource hungry
They will continue to supply the military dictators with weapons and money to gain whatever leverage is possible. Which will leave few options for the so called international community.
-Sit tight and switch off the television hoping the protests fade away.
-Enforce complete sanctions agaisnst Myanmar, only to see India and China supply whatever has been barred under the sanctions.
- Threaten India and China with sanctions if they refuse to cooperate with sanctions, which is highly unlikely in fact almost impossible however required if the sanctions have to work.

If the dictatorship still survives (as no matter what you do they will always have money and power).

Then there is the option of
Military action.
- A UN force: highly unlikely given the way the security council works (presence of China and Russia).

- A EU + USA force: It is the only force that has the resources to achieve a quick military solution, it will lack the political initiative to enter into a direct conflict, there will be a belief that a military action might do more harm than the military dictators.
China will do whatever is reasonable to protect its resources and Russia and India will also oppose such moves. However China will not act against a multi national force, at-least not militarily.

However, Russia doesn't gain any political or financial ground from Myanmar and India can be made to cooperate given that a military action in Myanmar will also help India deny separatist elements (in north eastern India) their training and command bases.

Another plus point will be that the possibility of being bogged down with insurgency after the military action doesn't exist and once the military junta is removed UN forces can come-in and help in the restoration of democracy.
add to that the energy resources that will be available from Myanmar.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tatmadaw

 

[Scorpius]

bad idea IMO.will create a lot of problems for Burma and its neighbours also.
for us it means possibly more refugees.

-Enforce complete sanctions agaisnst Myanmar, only to see India and China supply whatever has been barred under the sanctions.
- Threaten India and China with sanctions if they refuse to cooperate with sanctions, which is highly unlikely in fact almost impossible however required if the sanctions have to work.

the best of options,economic sanctions and other non-military measures.
don't you think that the idea that western US led naval forces are in control of the waters near the malacca traits might piss them off a bit?

 

[funtz]

I know, and possible solutions are a matter of discussion, i wish to discuss the possible advantages of military action.
There are options, military action being one of them.

The advantages of a swift military action will be disabling the command structure of the military, thereby leaving leaders inside Myanmar who will be more towards a tolerant form of governance, political power is a game of people, and the people in charge in Myanmar right now are Military leaders with an opposition that opposes them (apparently).

Once the military forces find them self with out a leadership they will have to respond to the available power centers with support of the population.

The refuge problem for Myanmar neighbors will be solved (instead of being created) as a result, already there are a lot of political refuges in exile around Myanmar, i personally remember meeting people from Myanmar living in Delhi. All of this however rests on a very swift action.

Operations in and around the area in question will make China anxious, however they will not risk a direct confrontation, especially when we consider the interest in Myanmar, that is energy resources.

These resources will not vanish from Myanmar in case of a military action and in the event of the restoration of democratic centers of power inside the Myanmar politics.
China will still remain the most lucrative customer of these resources, hence for China to go into a military offensive against a military action targeting the military junta will not yeild any profit, not enough to justify military intervention.

An increase in arms supply is possible however that will not help in case of a major offensive, and a insurgency will be hard to sustain, given the volume of protests against the military dictatorship.

only links I could find online about Myanmar’s armed forces
Air Force: http://www.aeroflight.co.uk/waf/aa-eastasia/burma/burma-af-aircraft.htm
Army: http://www.aeroflight.co.uk/waf/aa-eastasia/burma/burma-af-aircraft.htm
Navy: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Myanmar_Navy

Not exactly a force to be reckoned with.

However most of Myanmar’s neighbors will not participate or help in a military action, considering it is easier for them to deal with a dictatorship in Myanmar (in terms of energy).

 

[Izzy1]

Some excerpts from Jane's World Armies (18 Sep 2007) in regards to the Myanmar Army:

Strength: 300,000 to 350,000
Infantry: 507 x Battalions (Most at 1xCompany strength)
Armour: 13 x Battalions
Artillery: 15 x Battalions
Air Defence: 31 x Battalions

Since 1988, Myanmar has substantially expanded and reshaped its ground forces to counter both internal and external forces... It has always received the greatest share of the defence budget and since 1962 has effectively dominated political processes in the country.

Although upgrades in equipment since 1988 have significantly improved the army's armaments, it would be hard-pressed to cope with a well-prepared enemy armed with modern weapon systems.

Morale is generally poor among the enlisted members of the army and desertions are frequent, despite severe penalties for those who are caught... The army also lacks popular support, reflecting its perceived role against the Burman civilian population and numerous ethnic insurgent groups.

A confidential internal document obtained by Jane's in March 2007 showed that the Myanmar Armed Forces suffer from false reporting, haphazard inspections and poor record keeping. Battalion commanders are chastised for drinking excessively and for being fixated on profit making and womanising...

On numerous occasions since the 1962 coup, the Myanmar Army has shown ruthless efficiency in crushing political dissent. A similar reaction is possible if widespread civil disruption were to occur again.

 

[kato]

I kinda remotely remember that i once saw documentation of a US OPFOR scenario that involved a quick-reaction amphibious assault on Myanmar. Probably from back in the mid 90s. Involved three full ARGs and one CBG without buildup iirc, and was mostly a "decapitation/penetration" scenario (direct strike for Rangoon, flanked by attacks on certain naval/army bases) without later mop-up discussed.

Can't find it on the Internet for the life of me anymore though. I blame 9/11 for that.

 

[merocaine]

If the democratic movement picks up more pace and the military leadership decides on absolutely crushing the movement through deadly force, there will be a need of action from the world.

Or perhaps action from one man.... John Rambo

[ame="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wrHbrXv9MaQ"]YouTube - Rambo 4 Trailer[/ame]

Topical as ever Rambo is back and kicking ass in Myanmar.

As far as an invasion is concerned the Myanmar army is run more like a crime family than a fighting force, it would'ent last more than a few days.
The big problem is china, who have invested very heavily in the country.

 

[funtz]

china

what china wants is the resources, due to its geographical position it will always be a major customer, no matter who is in power (unless the generals sell the gas-oil at no profit no loss "please save us in troble" prices.
Furthermore a military action will consider the "what will china do", question, may be react strongly at the UN, however a military action will occur when it is clear that the protests will not die down and the military junta will not stop killing people at that point the military solution will not be that complex, as they must have said in the US “Certainty of success, zero chance of insurgency, a friendly government with petroleum to sell for decades, what are we waiting for”, only this time it can actually work.

 

[Gripenator]

what china wants is the resources, due to its geographical position it will always be a major customer, no matter who is in power (unless the generals sell the gas-oil at no profit no loss "please save us in troble" prices.
Furthermore a military action will consider the "what will china do", question, may be react strongly at the UN, however a military action will occur when it is clear that the protests will not die down and the military junta will not stop killing people at that point the military solution will not be that complex, as they must have said in the US “Certainty of success, zero chance of insurgency, a friendly government with petroleum to sell for decades, what are we waiting for”, only this time it can actually work.

Agreed on that point.

It would be highly unlikely that any EU countries with the exception of the UK would be willing to participate in a intial stabilization force to Burma to avoid "offending" the PRC-leaving the USA as the only nation that does not have to factor in the "China reaction". Unfortunately the US/UK forces are rather tied down in Iraq and Afghanistan ATM so I suspect the world will just sit back and watch the atrocities unfold.

However if the US intervened in Burma they would most likely be greeted with open arms much much of the Burmese populace, the usual hypocritical screams from the two "model world citizens" of Russia and China about "non interference" and "imperialism" and a lengthly mopping up operation against the die-hard remnants of the regime although most likely it would soon be crushed as the US forces have the support and intelligence from the locals-unlike Iraq.

It would be highly advantageous for the US to intervene now, however the only possible geopolitical factors is the China card for dealing with North Korea and the ASEAN reaction-the US may just value its relationship with ASEAN more atm if the regime refrains from any more madness. India would initiallly be suspicious of such an action given the Commies in the government but over time I suspect they would rather enjoy the lessened funding and loss of bases of the Assam guerilla plauging the Indian army at the moment.

 

[stryker NZ]

Or perhaps action from one man.... John Rambo

YouTube - Rambo 4 Trailer

Topical as ever Rambo is back and kicking ass in Myanmar.

that clips not so inaccurate (besides the fact that stalone would probably have a heart attack if he was really moving around that much) the rambo production team was filming close to the boarder and was shot at and warned off by the burmese military a few times. There was also reports that some burmese that were used as extras got arrested once they returned home

 

[Ozzy Blizzard]

Or perhaps action from one man.... John Rambo

YouTube - Rambo 4 Trailer

Topical as ever Rambo is back and kicking ass in Myanmar.

AAhaha!!! Thats a classic!!!nfloorl:

Seems they turned up the gore factor, something i'll have to see even if its just for a laugh!

As far as an invasion is concerned the Myanmar army is run more like a crime family than a fighting force, it would'ent last more than a few days.
The big problem is china, who have invested very heavily in the country.

Myanmar are well and truely under the chinese sphere of influence, any op without their concent would mean big trouble i would imagine.

 

[merocaine]

Myanmar are well and truely under the chinese sphere of influence, any op without their concent would mean big trouble i would imagine.

actually thats not a bad idea for a war game. Perhaps a border war between Myanmar and Thailand that draws in the US and China.....sweet.

 

[Ophir]

I kinda remotely remember that i once saw documentation of a US OPFOR scenario that involved a quick-reaction amphibious assault on Myanmar. Probably from back in the mid 90s. Involved three full ARGs and one CBG without buildup iirc, and was mostly a "decapitation/penetration" scenario (direct strike for Rangoon, flanked by attacks on certain naval/army bases) without later mop-up discussed.

Can't find it on the Internet for the life of me anymore though. I blame 9/11 for that.

Very interesting... Was III MEF from Okinawa earmarked for the execution of a possible assault?

 

[funtz]

I think the soviets and Americans have played these games a lot of times all around the World.

A military action will have to be more global (ie with EU and AUS etc. etc.)

China doesn’t have the military power or pull to oppose a military action in Myanmar, not yet, most of the ASEAN neighbors of Myanmar will like to see the generals out of political power, and will not oppose a military action in Myanmar, in-fact they will enjoy the impact it will have on the Chinese pull and military dominance in the region for a longer time which will be preferred by the ASEAN members.

The US will also (as is claimed in the media) counter China more than any (again as claimed by the media) alliance with India.

Just as India China will continue to engage any government that functions in Myanmar, the process will be open though and there will be a lot more firms from all over the world other than India and China, however china is not completely dependent on Myanmar for its energy needs, in the long term whatever gain comes from Myanmar justifies nothing more than a vote in the security counsel, occasional weapons package and money in the generals bank account.

The problem in Myanmar seems to be that without absolute oppression the military will not survive.

however the only possible geopolitical factors is the China card for dealing with North Korea

That might play a bigger role.

 

[merocaine]

China doesn’t have the military power or pull to oppose a military action in Myanmar, not yet, most of the ASEAN neighbors of Myanmar will like to see the generals out of political power, and will not oppose a military action in Myanmar, in-fact they will enjoy the impact it will have on the Chinese pull and military dominance in the region for a longer time which will be preferred by the ASEAN members.

Hmmm, China shares a long border with Myanmar and numourous trade links.
It would be very easy for them to roll over the border anytime they wanted.
I think they only way they would stay out of Myanmar would be if Myanmar was the agressor, eg attacking into Thailand.

Since Myanmar is a member of ASEAN I dont think any ASEAN members really care all that much who is in power in the country.
and since the founding principles of ASEAN stress

mutual respect for the independence, sovereignty, equality, territorial integrity, and national identity of all nations;

the right of every State to lead its national existence free from external interference, subversion or coercion;

non-interference in the internal affairs of one another;

settlement of differences or disputes by peaceful manner;

renunciation of the threat or use of force; and

effective cooperation among themselves.

Which all seem to ways of saying the same thing ie, mind yours and I'll mind mine!


I dont think regime change is on anyones mind. In fact the Chinese are much more in tune with those principles than any western country.
So if push came to shove I would Imagine ASEAN and China would line up firmly opposing any Military intervention.

Of course if Myanmar acted as an aggressor state I'm sure the Chinese crack the whip before the Americans could involve themselves.

 

[funtz]

In case of an international military intervention (which I know is next to impossible until a million people die in front of television crews) china will not intervene in any way.

It is more about what possible gains can be made from "rolling into" Myanmar in case of an international action,
a) Start a direct confrontation with the very nations that are your major commercial partners (US, EU).
b) Secure the petrochemical industry, which even after a democratic government, will always be your major supplier as with the requirement you have and your geographical position, no one can beat the price you can afford.
c) Finally show the western powers how well trained and well equipped your military is, and if you are fighting them on one front might as well reintegrate Taiwan into the fatherland and start a world war.
I hardly think the profits will justify the risk.

For the ASEAN a missing roll call for the generals at the conference table will be one less headache.
They will not participate in this action; they will not mind it enough to even lodge a complaint at the UN.

 

[Manfred2]

It's a terrible thing, when you know that the people in Burma are getting slaughtered, they would welcome you as liberators... and you still can't go in.

India cannot; the border with Assam has few roads, and the terrain is terrible.
Thailand is too vulnerable, and Austraila and Songapore don't have the means.

The US could do it, but how do we avoid the same situation we have in A-stan and Iraq? The people of Buma don't have a reputation for being good, honest bureucrats, and that long border with China would be an ideal channel for weapons and geurillas.

Maybe an Alliance of all four Nations could pull it off, but for how long?

I say give the Burmese th tools to do it themselves. If they want it badly enough, they will fight to be free.

 

[weasel1962]

Re:

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[funtz]

Unrealistic.
1) Getting the UN to invade a foreign sovereign country (albeit under a dictator) will never happen.
2) Getting the UN to occupy a nation thereafter is unrealistic.
3) Getting China to agree to a UN-sanctioned invasion would be impossible.
The US wouldn't bother because Burma has no resources that would interest the US.
The opposition in Burma has absolutely no defence to an insurgency. Thick jungle terrain supports counter insurgency problems. Current insurgents are in burma are drug lords. Funding them would just fund the drug problem.
There are very few viable military options, if any at all.

-The current situation is well known, the question was for a scenario where the protests do not die down and the generals order something like a genocide.

UN security council is out because of russia and china.

-China and India are interested in Myanmar as it has oil/gas resources.

-The majority opposition in burma is a peace based one (including the monks) and they hold the most (%) population support, there are several tribal(some religious) groups in burma who are against the current regime. The level of drugs getting through mayanmars border shows that there is an understanding between the drug lords and administration.

- once the invasion is complete, the basic structure for a democratic set up is in plae, that is political leaders who oppose the military rule, support peacefull opposition in the face of bullets, have active support from the population and the monks, the military junta has been defeted in an election before.

-The military block responds to power centers it can be democratic or a dictator, once a dictatorship is removed they will have to look towards available power centers or collapse, a military runs from money as much as from orders.

 

[Izzy1]

UN security council is out because of russia and china.

And we didn't truly press the case; the UK, US and France.

Disgusting.

It was last week's headline on BBC World, now its no where now. This was a country that cried out for Democracy and we failed it.

Shame on us.

 

[weasel1962]

Re:

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