UAE's Mirage 200-9
Well starting point for this post were my comments about the UAE's retirement of their Mirage 2000-9 and Vietnam as a potential buyer of those Mirage 2000-9.
Member Rock45 has asked me some questions I would like to answer:
your still on China's border.
->Vietnam has been on China's border for over 2000 years.
Their relationship is like: David vs. Goliath or big brother vs. lil' brother.......or you vs. your wife/husband
Both countries share alot of cultural & socio-economic similarities (in the past & today), but due historical Chinese dominance/rule and Vietnamese determinated will for independence there is still "a distance" between the two people.
Most visible similarity between Vietnam & China is that both are still Communist countries.
Many people in the West are fooled by this fact. Especially the hardliners in the Overseas Vietnamese community are thinking that Vietnam/Communist Party of Vietnam "is just a tool of the PRC".
Officially the CPV is a harmonic monolithic bloc, but truth is: they have never been. The only issue, which unites all party members/Viets is the independence/development of Vietnam.
CPV's foreign policy: There is a pro-China, pro-Russia, pro-US, pro...insert your country's name-faction. But the neutralist faction are currently the strongest faction. This has lead to increased popularity for Vietnam allaround the world in the recent years. Visible in the rise of foreign tourists/politcians visiting Vietnam
Vietnam's relationship towards China has relaxed in the recent years. Landmarks on the border has been set. Maritime border in the Gulf of Tonkin has also been cleared. Economy is booming in both Countries and are fuelling eachother.
Doesn't China also claim the entire Spratleys Islands as well and their oil? I'm not saying it's right don't get me wrong but its out there and on the table.
The fundamental problem in the South China Sea is that the current government of China claims nearly the whole SCS. PRC's claim even cuts through "undisputed sovereign waters/Exclusive Economic Zone" of Vietnam/Phillipines/Malaysia/Brunai. PRC's claims are backed by their military strenght like the others.
The former South-Vietnamese navy lost the Paracels in 1974 in a small sea battle and the PLAN occupied the islands. The - at that time pro-China/Soviet - government of North Vietnam supported the occupation and even send an official letter to Peking. Today the Chinese government uses this letter as an official justication for the occupation. The PLAN has already dug in on those islands - no chance for the Vietnamese People's Navy/Naval Infantry to retake them.
The situation on the Spratley Islands is much more favourable from the Vietnamese perspective:
- ~ 2000 Vietnamese marines & civilians are stationed/living on some of those islands
- Vietnamese installations on those islands include: HMGs/ Grenade launchers/ AAA/ Igla MANPAD/ PRGs/recoiless rifles
- currently 15 Su-27/30 multirole + ~ 60 Su-22 strikers can support the Vietnamese forces on those islands
- ~ 16 "Taratul-5" corvettes + 4 "Tatarstan" frigates are under construction/sea trails. (Sure the fundamental design of those ships is lil' bit old but they all new-built with modern materials & latest Russian missiles. The most important factor is that they are built in Vietnam. If the Vietnamese shipping industry - already in the top ten - keeps growing, than we can soon expect destroyers/submarines.)
- Spratley Islands are an international waterway - Any actions by any sides would piss off the International community & disturb world economy.
If Vietnam bought the UAE's Mirage 2000-5/9 teamed with their Flankers it would give a Vietnam's Air Force a powerful combo. I can't see the Mirages going cheap and Vietnam might be able to buy almost 2 Flankers for one Mirage depending the deal and goodies that come with the purchase deal.
You mention Vietnam's human rights violations I know little about current Vietnam is this something that the government is improving on?
VN doesn't get Russian gear for free now. In 2003 Vietnam paid ~ 110millions US$ for 4 - according to many websites - "basic" Su-30 Flankers. The price for all gadgets (thrust vectoring,AEsA radar, EW/ECM suites) would push the price up to 50/70 millions US$ - currently unpayable for VPAF.
I've read on several sites that the Vietnamese Flankers are not even eqipped with BVR-A2A missiles. (Correct me if I'm wrong.) The option for additional 9?/21?/57? Flankers has not been realized.
I prefer to have some older, but fully-equipped Mirage 2k9 (especially with the EW/recon suites) than some Su-30 without any gadgets. So it's maybe cheaper to buy the Mirage than naked Flankers.
Well, we all don't know what happens behind closed doors. Vietnam is currently an exclusive market for Russia/former WP countries. But Vietnam does not want to be dependent completely on Russia.
Isreal's deal to sell mine-protected recon vehicles to VN surprised many.
It would be the government of the UAE selling the Mirages - how can a human rights NGO critize the French government?
On the other hand France would get a backdoor to Vietnam. We all know that France is desperately looking for export markets for its' fighters.
Human rights/Democracy/4 Freedoms - THE pressing factors when it comes to arms deals with emerging/developing countries.
In general it can be said that those things have greatly improved, but VN is far from having Western standards. There are many contradicting incidents.
Just 3 examples:
While thousands of Christians in Saigon could rent a soccer stadium and celebrate Christmas, Christians in remote areas couldn't even celebrate in their homes undisturbed.
The "Flower/Black" Hmongs in the Sa Pa area/Northeastern Vietnam are benefitting from growing tourism & selling their handicraft worldwide. Hmong clans/families, who fought for the US Forces in South Vietnam/Laos, are still being harrassed and persecuted.
Two journalists, who have uncovered some corruption cases in a state-censored newspaper, were sentenced to long prison fines, but they were released several weeks later during the annual general amnesty. (Typical fight between the reformists vs. the conservatives/corrupted. This incident has once again showed the schism inside the CPV)
-> VN's armed forces are currently under control by conservatives of the CPV.
Western arms sales to Vietnam would mean:
not repeating history by not driving the Viets into Russian/Chinese camp
calm down Chinese expansionism with a good eqipped Vietnamese military
training for soldiers/sailors/pilots by Western experts --> personal contacts can bring new ideas to them
training in Western countries --> Officers/Soldiers get to know Western societies during their time there
higher interoperationality between VN's forces and ASEAN's other member states, who mostly use Western gear
Just look how Germany/H&K have sold the MP5 to VN: Expanding Pakistan's license for MP5 production. Pakistan sells the surplus MP5 to VN. Selling over Isreal or India could also be a path to avoid direct critic.