Topol-M SS-27 withstand nuclear blast true or false?

dioditto

New Member
I am just curious, how does the russian Topol-M SS-27 can withstand a nuclear blast in the radius of merely 500m? Won't the trojectory be deflected somewhat making the missile not landing on target, thus nullify the effect of missile?

And at 500m, it can't possibly withstand the destructive power of a strategic nuke can it?
 

Rich

Member
dioditto said:
I am just curious, how does the russian Topol-M SS-27 can withstand a nuclear blast in the radius of merely 500m? Won't the trojectory be deflected somewhat making the missile not landing on target, thus nullify the effect of missile?

And at 500m, it can't possibly withstand the destructive power of a strategic nuke can it?
No mobile/surface ICBM package could survive at that distance. If I remember right the missile has been touted by the Russians as being impervious to EMP due to shielding. Its interesting how the Russians have been spinning away at out missile defense program when you consider they have a far more capable Missile Defense then we do and have had so for years. The USA doesn't deploy missiles capable of changing course in flight so the Russians would be far more capable of shooting down our missiles then we would be able to shoot down a modern design like the SS-27.

Of course there is no question we could design un-killable missiles and warhead bus's. But whats the point? To win a nuclear arms race against the Russians would make the world more unstable and our own security more shakey. Doesnt sound like anyone would "win" in such a scenario, including us. The stability of MAD is far more preferable.
 

killbill2

New Member
^^ seems you're not the only one besides me who knows about the 10,000 interceptor ABM system of Russia on this board.tell me what are the prospects of stopping a full scale US nuke attack by the ABM system?

Well I know the warhead can be hardened to some degree but 500 meters sounds unlikely to me. but it also depends of the size of the nuclear interceptor used against it.A against a 1-20kt maybe but something like 5mt you can forget it!Also theres similar tech to this called an MARV.
 
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Grand Danois

Entertainer
killbill2 said:
^^ seems you're not the only one besides me who knows aboutt he 10,000 interceptor ABM system f Russia.tell me what are the prospects of stopping a full scale US nuke attack by the ABM system?

Well i know the warhead can be hardened to some degree but 500meters sounds absoultely unlikely to me.it alos depends of the size of the nuclear interceptor used against it.A gainsta 1-20kt maybe but something like 5mt you can forget it!
IIRC Russia is limited by treaty to 200 or so ABM's and they're based around Moscow and have nuclear warheads. Is it these you are referring to?
 

Big-E

Banned Member
Grand Danois said:
IIRC Russia is limited by treaty to 200 or so ABM's and they're based around Moscow and have nuclear warheads. Is it these you are referring to?
Russia, ABM defense stopping a nuclear strike... these guys are joking right?
 

Rich

Member
Grand Danois said:
IIRC Russia is limited by treaty to 200 or so ABM's and they're based around Moscow and have nuclear warheads. Is it these you are referring to?
Russia, ABM defense stopping a nuclear strike... these guys are joking right?
Yes, those 200 ABMs are far more then we deploy. And nobody said Russia would be able to interdict a nuclear strike from America. I was referring to the course changing abilities of the SS-27, and other decoy attributes, that will make it extremely difficult for an American ABM to shoot it down. Russian condemnation of our missile defense program forgets to mention their own ABM system, and, the capabilities of the SS-27.

Of course only a raving lunatic could even consider a ABM system by either country that would make it possible to defend against a strike from the other, or, a counter strike.

Dont mind me, Im just allowing the thread to evolve. The answer to the original question is fairly easily answered. 500 meters is nothing and any surface road mobile ICBM system would vaporize if located that close to a Yank strategic strike in the range of 450 kt. And the CEP of about everything we have is far more accurate then 500 meters.

A hobby of mine keeping up on this stuff having once trotted around it for four years with a plastic rifle slung.
 

hybrid

New Member
Rich said:
Yes, those 200 ABMs are far more then we deploy. And nobody said Russia would be able to interdict a nuclear strike from America. I was referring to the course changing abilities of the SS-27, and other decoy attributes, that will make it extremely difficult for an American ABM to shoot it down. Russian condemnation of our missile defense program forgets to mention their own ABM system, and, the capabilities of the SS-27.

Of course only a raving lunatic could even consider a ABM system by either country that would make it possible to defend against a strike from the other, or, a counter strike.

Dont mind me, Im just allowing the thread to evolve. The answer to the original question is fairly easily answered. 500 meters is nothing and any surface road mobile ICBM system would vaporize if located that close to a Yank strategic strike in the range of 450 kt. And the CEP of about everything we have is far more accurate then 500 meters.

A hobby of mine keeping up on this stuff having once trotted around it for four years with a plastic rifle slung.

You're talking about a MaRV warhead, its what the Russians have been touting. We've had those ready to go since the Trident C-4 was deployed. Hell the Pershing II had them. It does make a maneuvering target slightly more difficult to intercept, but not impossible. As of 2005 there are 42 Topol-M missiles deployed and almost all of these are far as I know of carry a single warhead (though it could carry instead up to 6 MIRVs) and are silo based at the moment, which in turn means THOSE particular missiles are much more likely to be hit during as a first strike option.
 

Rich

Member
hybrid said:
You're talking about a MaRV warhead, its what the Russians have been touting. We've had those ready to go since the Trident C-4 was deployed. Hell the Pershing II had them. It does make a maneuvering target slightly more difficult to intercept, but not impossible. As of 2005 there are 42 Topol-M missiles deployed and almost all of these are far as I know of carry a single warhead (though it could carry instead up to 6 MIRVs) and are silo based at the moment, which in turn means THOSE particular missiles are much more likely to be hit during as a first strike option.
No, and I'm going from memory here, but the SS-27 has a warhead Bus that can change its flightpath en route to its line of targets and before the warheads are released. The Iranians are working on a similar type warhead delivery vehicle. The end result is such a weapon would be very difficult to shoot down with an ABM system. The Russians developed it, they say, out of fear of our evolving ABM capacity. Tho there's no way we could ever build an ABM capability that could defend against a massive strike by the Russians, nor they us. Its also suspected they have already MIRV'ed it.

I know what MIRV means. We had both Titan and Minuteman when I was in.

Also is this 500 meter statement referring to the missile in flight? on its surface launch vehicle? Or in a silo? Thanks
 

dioditto

New Member
  • Thread Starter Thread Starter
  • #9
Rich said:
No, and I'm going from memory here, but the SS-27 has a warhead Bus that can change its flightpath en route to its line of targets and before the warheads are released. The Iranians are working on a similar type warhead delivery vehicle. The end result is such a weapon would be very difficult to shoot down with an ABM system. The Russians developed it, they say, out of fear of our evolving ABM capacity. Tho there's no way we could ever build an ABM capability that could defend against a massive strike by the Russians, nor they us. Its also suspected they have already MIRV'ed it.

I know what MIRV means. We had both Titan and Minuteman when I was in.

Also is this 500 meter statement referring to the missile in flight? on its surface launch vehicle? Or in a silo? Thanks


He is not talking about MIRV, he is talking about MARV.
"Maneuverable Reentry Vehicle (abbreviated MARV or MaRV) is a type of nuclear warhead capable of shifting targets in flight."
 

hybrid

New Member
dioditto said:
He is not talking about MIRV, he is talking about MARV.
"Maneuverable Reentry Vehicle (abbreviated MARV or MaRV) is a type of nuclear warhead capable of shifting targets in flight."

Bingo. Also Rich the Russians have NOT MIRV'd any of their Topol-M missiles, the only sets that are currently MIRV'd are their SS-18 and SS-19 missiles, with 10 and 6 warheads each respectively. The SS-24 also was a MIRVed missile but that has been withdrawn from service. A decent site to check the numbers is located here:

http://russianforces.org/missiles/
 

killbill2

New Member
http://www.findarticles.com/p/articles/mi_m1571/is_16_17/ai_74337128/pg_9
http://www.security-policy.org/papers/2000/00-F37.html

Russias 10,000 ABM interceptors here you go. the only wy we can beat them is to use JASSMS or AGM 129's against the radars or use MARV"s.

MARV"S maeuver and pull off a huge amount of extremely high g maneuvers making it almost impossible to hit one.Which is our ticket to penetrate the ABM system without relying on our B-2's,JASSM's, or AGM 129's.

To penetrate a layered (exoatmospheric and terminal) defense, ABRES focused on a maneuvering reentry vehicle. This vehicle would be coupled with an early-reentry decoy, which would remain viable down to the altitude at which the reentry vehicle could maneuver. Researchers determined that the extremely high lateral g forces that the maneuvering reentry vehicle could pull would be more than sufficient to evade the terminal interceptors.
Minuteman III launch

The Minuteman II had a much longer range than its predecessor and was the first U.S. ICBM to use decoys in its warhead section. (U.S. Air Force)

The first maneuvering vehicles tested were large flap-based units, three of which were successfully flight-tested over the Pacific in the late 1960s. Vehicles that used reaction jets to maneuver were also considered, but design studies and wind tunnel data indicated that the simpler flap arrangement could perform all the maneuvers required. Three full-scale flap-based vehicles were flown over the Pacific Ocean in 1973–1974, followed by three successful preprototype flight tests of the Advanced Maneuvering Reentry Vehicle in 1981. The vehicle was declared operational for the Minuteman III or the MX.

The success of the Advanced Maneuvering Reentry Vehicle was made possible in part by its innovative guidance system, a small nuclear-hardened inertial platform that could achieve the same accuracy as a ballistic reentry vehicle even after experiencing high-level accelerations. Eight years had gone into the development of this guidance platform, and its introduction was highly significant. Whereas guidance systems for ballistic missiles can weigh well over 100 kilograms and only have to withstand acceleration up to 10 g's, the guidance system for the Advanced Maneuvering Reentry Vehicle could weigh no more than 13–18 kilograms and had to retain accuracy after experiencing g forces more than an order of magnitude higher. The early design employed small gyros and accelerometers in a small, hardened, gimbaled platform, which was immersed in a liquid to relieve the g force loads; however, this arrangement generated thermodynamic and chemical interactions among the electronics, instruments, and liquid. These problems were eventually resolved, and the small hardened inertial platform achieved its performance goals, providing a model for future development.
http://www.aero.org/publications/crosslink/winter2003/02.html
http://www.aero.org/publications/crosslink/winter2003/images/02_04.jpg
Add chaff's and decoys the difficulty to shoot one down increases a whole lot.
 

Grand Danois

Entertainer
killbill2 said:
http://www.findarticles.com/p/articles/mi_m1571/is_16_17/ai_74337128/pg_9
http://www.security-policy.org/papers/2000/00-F37.html

Russias 10,000 ABM interceptors here you go. the only wy we can beat them is to use JASSMS or AGM 129's against the radars or use MARV"s.
Now I see where you got it from! The SA-5/SA-10 are very unlikely to intercept anything with a throw distance of more than 500 miles and certainly not ICBMs.

EDIT: As the article also says:
A top U.S. intelligence official and arms-control analyst, interviewed by Insight on the condition that his name be withheld, vigorously rejects the Russian claims. In a detailed rebuttal of Lee's analysis, he says the United States has carried out a technical analysis of the SA-10 and SA-12 systems and concludes they simply were not fast enough to intercept incoming ICBMs. The Soviets might have wanted to integrate the interceptors into a national missile-defense network, he says, but never demonstrated the capability. Even if such a network had been set up, he argues, the interceptors were just too slow to be effective against ICBMs.

http://www.findarticles.com/p/articles/mi_m1571/is_16_17/ai_74337128/pg_9
 
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killbill2

New Member
Why don't you try to read the rest of the article. please^^^^^

But, according to the new Russian source material, Soviet designers worked around the slow speed of the interceptors by passing target data to them from huge battle-management radars positioned thousands of kilometers away. That gave them enough warning to launch the interceptors in time to kill the incoming warheads. The Russians also made clear that the main ABM system protecting Moscow was just as dependent as the SAMs/ ABMs on receiving target-tracking data from distant battle-management radars.
 

Grand Danois

Entertainer
killbill2 said:
Why don't you try to read the rest of the article. please^^^^^
It's not the early warning and the C2, queing, that is in doubt (Didn't the SU have early warning systems?). The weak link is the approach to intercepting and killing the ballistic missile. If a proper C2ISR was enough, then every high altitude interceptor could do the job. They can't

Let's take a look at the dedicated (the best Russia has) conventional warhead ABM system.

"S-400 (SA-20 Triumf)

Country: Russia
Alternate Name: SA-20 Triumf
Basing: Land
Status: Operational, Exported

Details

The S-400, also known by its NATO designation, SA-20 Triumf, is an advanced Russian surface-to-air missile system. Once operational, it will be able to destroy aircraft, cruise missiles, and short- and medium-range ballistic missiles at ranges of up to 400 kilometers. The Russians eventually plan to phase out their existing S-200 (NATO: SA-5 Gammon) and S-300P (NATO: SA-10 Grumble) systems and replace them with S-400 complexes.(1)

http://www.missilethreat.com/systems/s-400.html"


From top of mind I will add that it is capable of intercepting ballistic missiles with a reentry speed of 4,500 m/s and has a ceiling of 30,000m+. This means it does endoatmospheric intercepts of short to medium range missiles. Let's say the Russians are tightlipped and secretive ;) and it can intercept BM's with thrice that speed - 13,500 m/s. A Trident SLBM has a reentry speed of 29,000 m/s and a Minuteman III has a reentry of 24,000 m/s. Pretty much says it all.

Their missiles use the right method for a terminal phase intercept of theatre ballistic missiles, but does so with a dual use warhead (AA + ABM) and does so with a AA missile. it lacks the accuracy and warhead. Comparable to PAC-2 perhaps?

See the mods done to make a PAC-3 into an ABM.

"The PAC-3 upgrade carried with it a new missile design, nominally known as MIM-104F and called PAC-3 by the Army. The PAC-3 missile is the most advanced aerial interceptor ever developed, dedicated almost entirely to the anti-ballistic missile mission. Miniaturization has made the PAC-3 missile much smaller than the previous Patriot missiles; a single "can" can now hold four missiles where one was once held. The PAC-3 missile is also much more maneuverable than previous variants, thanks to dozens of tiny rocket motors mounted in the forebody of the missile (called ACMs, or Attitude Control Motors). However, the most significant upgrade to the PAC-3 missile is the addition of a Ka band active radar seeker. This allows the missile to drop its uplink to the system and acquire its target itself in the terminal phase of its intercept, which improves the reaction time of the missile against a fast-moving ballistic missile target; the PAC-3 missile is, in fact, accurate enough to select, target, and home in on the warhead portion of an inbound ballistic missile. The active radar also increases the missile's ability to discriminate debris and decoys that may be around the warhead, and gives the warhead a "hit-to-kill" capability that completely removes the need for a traditional proximity-fused warhead. This greatly increases the lethality against ballistic missiles of all types.

All told, the PAC-3 upgrade has effectively quintupled the "footprint" that a Patriot unit can defend against ballistic missiles of all types, and has considerably increased the system's lethality and effectiveness against ballistic missiles. It has also increased the scope of ballistic missiles that Patriot can engage, which now includes several intermediate range and intercontinental ballistic missiles such as the Nodong and the CSS-2 and CSS-3. However, despite its increases in ballistic missile defence capabilities, the PAC-3 missile is a less capable interceptor of atmospheric aircraft and air-to-surface missiles. It is slower, has a shorter range, and has a smaller explosive warhead compared to older Patriot missiles (although it generally relies on its kinetic "hit to kill" warhead)."

Patriot's PAC-3 interceptor will be the primary interceptor for the new MEADS system, which is scheduled to enter service alongside Patriot in 2012."

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/MIM-104_Patriot#PAC-3


But PAC 3 is still a terminal phase interceptor. The best way is the trajectory-apex intercept. This is in its nature exoatmospheric and uses proper hit-to-kill vehicles. SM-3A and THAADS, which intercept at altitudes of 130-150 km.

So. the Russians have a TBMD. Unfortunately neither the US, UK or France uses TBM's for delivery of their nukes. They use ICBM's SLBM's and cruise missiles (+ free fall bombs).

Sorry, but no cigar. This is also why Russia use nuke warheads for ICBM intercepts. They don't have a choice. Maybe Russia has 10,000 high altitude interceptors and IIRC the S-400 is still experimental. The number of ABM's depend on what Russia is shooting at. The intercept parameters required for intercept of Western BM's are outside of what their best missile can handle.

The clue is to take a look at which of Russia's neighbours use TBM's for nuke delivery and who coincidentally also has most of their nukes pointed towards Russia.
 
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aaaditya

New Member
dioditto said:
I am just curious, how does the russian Topol-M SS-27 can withstand a nuclear blast in the radius of merely 500m? Won't the trojectory be deflected somewhat making the missile not landing on target, thus nullify the effect of missile?

And at 500m, it can't possibly withstand the destructive power of a strategic nuke can it?
i believe the nuclear weapons and their warheads are tested to be emp (electro magnetic pulse) resistant and hence can definitely withstand a nuclear blast.
 
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