Something clearly worth mentioning.
In the uncertain wrath of the '90's Russia didn't quite know if it was Jekyll or Hyde the Master or the Subservient. In the later 90's under the Khrushchev-esque Yeltsin the question was not so much if Russia would fall, divide and reap what the ideological war had always promised to one side, it was when. The 1998 financial crisis and soon after the Serbian-Yugoslav debacle, just one more example of how the bear would find that bitter winter never ended; the hibernation absolute. Yet in this murk a gentleman hardly known even in his time to the international scene Prime Minister Yevgeny Primakov made an optimistic statement that seemed perfectly nonsensical a decade ago.
That there could be such a behemoth! An alliance between nations that were just as cold, embittered by petty betrayals and ideological prefecture: the troika China-Russia-India. That's roughly 40% of all human life, a bit more than 20% of the accounted GDP and over half of all nuclear weapons. This was all well and good in conjecture, but certainly it could never be real. Could it?
Quite a decade that has been. Russia, reestablishing its economic footing and muscovite heritage continued speaking softly but its clout was undoubtedly growing along with its ire. Russia made the unexpected move of reckoning with the stunned United States after 9/11 but alas the foibles of the still Cold War born and bred leadership elicited lukewarm reception and the possibility of America's concurrent hegemony drifted into our history. Each request at finding egalitarianism was met with taciturn political refusal; whether it be the WTO or even the growing anachronism of NATO.
America was still playing ball, and looked in no hurry to disassemble all of that old machinery. After what may one day called 'Russia's mid-life identity crisis' a bad taste was left in the slavophilian mouth for he West once again. Economically it was still fighting off a massive debt along with Dutch Shell and BP siphoning the rights to an increasingly copious Russian energy sector and YUKOS. Mired by the political ramifications of a powerful EU and NATO encroaching on her very border, then the color revolutions brought this to a point beyond the 'inherent Russian pride.'
What is different now? The idea of the USA pushing all of the important buttons unchecked did not appeal to a sphere of the world that had always hid in the corner while the superpowers had their squabbles was entering the vacuum left by the Warsaw Pact dissolution. No longer was it just 'the Far East' China, Moscow's adversary, had revolutionized its centralized model while still retaining absolute control as the face of the Party, the face of the People and was eager of its comeuppance, yet still democracy is rationed. Yet still development in many spheres was lacking. Growing from its shadow was its enemy of past; India who had detonated its 'smiling buddha' and joined the Nuke Club, yet structurally had much farther to go than even China.
In this we see amazing change. Old disputes are settled, some so old that these 4th generation leaders failed to even remember the Great Leap Gulag world of yesteryear. It was the year of Panda and Kodiak and all of a sudden we see tourism spring lacking of heavy duty and visa flashing. Military technology switches hands (of course China being the recipient but how long will she need this crutch?) Then there began integration to fight not only terrorist, guerrilla, and separatist scenarios but of larger scale incursions. Notwithstanding India and Russia have always had a more-or-less robust relationship economically but now in the civil and military they are finding more and more in common. This whole while China plays its deck close as always and repairs long severed ties with their Indian neighbors and at the same time brokered the lead role in this new entente cordiale of Asian nations in the form of the Shanghai Cooperation Org, something in between an EU on the civil and a loose military alliance.
This begs the question; who will make the next move? The words of an aging KGB politico in the Kremlin foretold this bond yet how strong are its links? And more importantly what is its progeny? Many disparities remain. Russia has much to decide on, shall it become a prodigal superpower of the muscovite model and at what cost? India faces the potential for radicalism and is still very much underdeveloped but still squabbles with Russia about the shared hardware. China seems like she's on the verge of something... Grand and harmonious as the state claims? Perhaps but there are many cobwebs in the attic and coming into the spotlight so quickly seems to have caught her a bit shy, will she run aground?
There would still be questions even after the volumes of books needed to rightfully answer these questions are conceived, researched and published. What we see here is a readiness to overcome cultural and political differences and the goal is surely more elaborate than the mutual disdain of a headstrong West. Struggle will surely refine what is now coarse. Where will it be? Iran? Kosovo? Taiwan? Venezuala? or even the arctic? And more importantly; has it been so long since the last Great War that we have forgotten how terrible its pendulum swings? As men of history we are Quixotic in that we are cognizant of its repetition and rarely in a position to fix it.
The 21st century, I fear, is much more ominous and uncertain than the Cold War was almost throughout. The evolution of this bond and its tensile strength will determine our tomorrows surely. But will we see the light or the darkness?
Mod edit:
Something more suitable for the World Affairs board I think...
This is defencetalk, where we, you know, talk about defence related matters?
Thread's closed.
AD
In the uncertain wrath of the '90's Russia didn't quite know if it was Jekyll or Hyde the Master or the Subservient. In the later 90's under the Khrushchev-esque Yeltsin the question was not so much if Russia would fall, divide and reap what the ideological war had always promised to one side, it was when. The 1998 financial crisis and soon after the Serbian-Yugoslav debacle, just one more example of how the bear would find that bitter winter never ended; the hibernation absolute. Yet in this murk a gentleman hardly known even in his time to the international scene Prime Minister Yevgeny Primakov made an optimistic statement that seemed perfectly nonsensical a decade ago.
That there could be such a behemoth! An alliance between nations that were just as cold, embittered by petty betrayals and ideological prefecture: the troika China-Russia-India. That's roughly 40% of all human life, a bit more than 20% of the accounted GDP and over half of all nuclear weapons. This was all well and good in conjecture, but certainly it could never be real. Could it?
Quite a decade that has been. Russia, reestablishing its economic footing and muscovite heritage continued speaking softly but its clout was undoubtedly growing along with its ire. Russia made the unexpected move of reckoning with the stunned United States after 9/11 but alas the foibles of the still Cold War born and bred leadership elicited lukewarm reception and the possibility of America's concurrent hegemony drifted into our history. Each request at finding egalitarianism was met with taciturn political refusal; whether it be the WTO or even the growing anachronism of NATO.
America was still playing ball, and looked in no hurry to disassemble all of that old machinery. After what may one day called 'Russia's mid-life identity crisis' a bad taste was left in the slavophilian mouth for he West once again. Economically it was still fighting off a massive debt along with Dutch Shell and BP siphoning the rights to an increasingly copious Russian energy sector and YUKOS. Mired by the political ramifications of a powerful EU and NATO encroaching on her very border, then the color revolutions brought this to a point beyond the 'inherent Russian pride.'
What is different now? The idea of the USA pushing all of the important buttons unchecked did not appeal to a sphere of the world that had always hid in the corner while the superpowers had their squabbles was entering the vacuum left by the Warsaw Pact dissolution. No longer was it just 'the Far East' China, Moscow's adversary, had revolutionized its centralized model while still retaining absolute control as the face of the Party, the face of the People and was eager of its comeuppance, yet still democracy is rationed. Yet still development in many spheres was lacking. Growing from its shadow was its enemy of past; India who had detonated its 'smiling buddha' and joined the Nuke Club, yet structurally had much farther to go than even China.
In this we see amazing change. Old disputes are settled, some so old that these 4th generation leaders failed to even remember the Great Leap Gulag world of yesteryear. It was the year of Panda and Kodiak and all of a sudden we see tourism spring lacking of heavy duty and visa flashing. Military technology switches hands (of course China being the recipient but how long will she need this crutch?) Then there began integration to fight not only terrorist, guerrilla, and separatist scenarios but of larger scale incursions. Notwithstanding India and Russia have always had a more-or-less robust relationship economically but now in the civil and military they are finding more and more in common. This whole while China plays its deck close as always and repairs long severed ties with their Indian neighbors and at the same time brokered the lead role in this new entente cordiale of Asian nations in the form of the Shanghai Cooperation Org, something in between an EU on the civil and a loose military alliance.
This begs the question; who will make the next move? The words of an aging KGB politico in the Kremlin foretold this bond yet how strong are its links? And more importantly what is its progeny? Many disparities remain. Russia has much to decide on, shall it become a prodigal superpower of the muscovite model and at what cost? India faces the potential for radicalism and is still very much underdeveloped but still squabbles with Russia about the shared hardware. China seems like she's on the verge of something... Grand and harmonious as the state claims? Perhaps but there are many cobwebs in the attic and coming into the spotlight so quickly seems to have caught her a bit shy, will she run aground?
There would still be questions even after the volumes of books needed to rightfully answer these questions are conceived, researched and published. What we see here is a readiness to overcome cultural and political differences and the goal is surely more elaborate than the mutual disdain of a headstrong West. Struggle will surely refine what is now coarse. Where will it be? Iran? Kosovo? Taiwan? Venezuala? or even the arctic? And more importantly; has it been so long since the last Great War that we have forgotten how terrible its pendulum swings? As men of history we are Quixotic in that we are cognizant of its repetition and rarely in a position to fix it.
The 21st century, I fear, is much more ominous and uncertain than the Cold War was almost throughout. The evolution of this bond and its tensile strength will determine our tomorrows surely. But will we see the light or the darkness?
Mod edit:
Something more suitable for the World Affairs board I think...
This is defencetalk, where we, you know, talk about defence related matters?
Thread's closed.
AD
Last edited by a moderator: