The Israeli Nuclear Question

[gazzzwp]

I appreciate some of the politics and history behind the question of whether or not Israel possesses nuclear weapons. The response of their officials when faced with the embarrassing question is to neither confirm or deny.

For those looking into the issue fresh, a good starting point would to look at the Vela Incident in 1979:

[ame="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vela_Incident"]Vela Incident - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia[/ame]

My question relating to all this is if Israel does possess nuclear weapons then how certain can they be sure that they will detonate? The US, UK, France, Russia,China, and even Pakistan and India have openly and extensively tested their weapons, to a point presumably where they can guarantee success of operation. How can Israel be sure of their weapons in the absence of such tests?

 

[RobWilliams]

My question relating to all this is if Israel does possess nuclear weapons then how certain can they be sure that they will detonate? The US, UK, France, Russia,China, and even Pakistan and India have openly and extensively tested their weapons, to a point presumably where they can guarantee success of operation. How can Israel be sure of their weapons in the absence of such tests?

In this age physical testing doesn't mean half as much as it used too. These days you can generally run a computer simulation on a project to see if it would successful or not and if it isn't successful or doesn't produce the required outcome you can adjust parameters and see what difference it makes.

While this may not assure 100% success in every launch it will give an extremely high probability of a successful detonation.

Thats my opinion what they're doing for testing if they have them anyway. The issue is if they have them, why are they not being so public about it. To me thats far more sinister.

 

[STURM]

I appreciate some of the politics and history behind the question of whether or not Israel possesses nuclear weapons.

Have you read Seymour Hersh's - The Sampson Option? It is an excellent read about how Israel got the technology.

 

[NICO]

These days with super computers, simulations probably are good enough but Israel has been known or suspected to have nukes for a few decades now before super computers, so I think the assumption is correct to believe that at some point early in their nuclear program, they tested one in collaboration with South Africa.

Then again, they could have shipped one to be tested in the US before nuclear ban but we have never heard anything related to that.

 

[STURM]

These days with super computers, simulations probably are good enough but Israel has been known or suspected to have nukes for a few decades now before super computers, so I think the assumption is correct to believe that at some point early in their nuclear program, they tested one in collaboration with South Africa.

Then again, they could have shipped one to be tested in the US before nuclear ban but we have never heard anything related to that.

Seymour Hersh's book mentions a test done by the South Africans, in which the Israelis had full access to.

This video mentions an offer made to South Africa by Israel for nukes.

[nomedia="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eVIWvnsUzNQ"]Israeli 'nuclear offer' explained by investigator - YouTube[/nomedia]

 

[FirstSpear]

I appreciate some of the politics and history behind the question of whether or not Israel possesses nuclear weapons. The response of their officials when faced with the embarrassing question is to neither confirm or deny.

For those looking into the issue fresh, a good starting point would to look at the Vela Incident in 1979:

Vela Incident - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

My question relating to all this is if Israel does possess nuclear weapons then how certain can they be sure that they will detonate? The US, UK, France, Russia,China, and even Pakistan and India have openly and extensively tested their weapons, to a point presumably where they can guarantee success of operation. How can Israel be sure of their weapons in the absence of such tests?

There has been, in fact, close cooperation by the Israelis with several nations which could have resulted in testing of their detonator technology. South Africa is one oft repeated one but even as the Guardian story on the offer by Israel to 'proliferate' nuclear tech in the late 1970s to South Africa, the Guardian agrees that a transfer of the technology never materialized. More recently, the common threat of a Pakistani proliferation campaign (seeded with Chinese technology and money) to other nations has brought Israel and India much closer.

The advanced radar and surveillance technologies provided by Israel to India suggest that a cooperation on testing detonators in mountainous deeply buried facilities in India may well have occurred to the benefit of both states.

Also, there is a lot of noise about the Israelis asking the US for a sub-launched cruise missile in the late 1990s and early 2000s (both Clinton and Bush administrations) and were declined firmly both time. Tellingly, the Israelis did not try to lobby the Bush administration through their friends in Congress on this issue. Perhaps, the refusal by the US was selectively read as justification, if not actual license, to develop their own. There is also a lot of noise about the German subs currently being built for the Israeli Navy incorporating many modifications requested/conceived by the Israelis. These include compartments for the 13th flotilla's commandos to perform littoral infiltrations and recoveries. Also, there is a lot of noise about the Israeli Navy receiving specific funding for a medium range second strike weapon as an additional deterrent should Israeli F15Is be unable to deliver a retaliatory strike on a long distance target.

The miniaturization of the nuclear devices required for this suggests that Israeli confidence in the vector and the platform rests on total confidence in the effectiveness of the weapon itself. Also, the first German sub to have gone back to Germany for refit seems to have received a lot more capability upgrades than the boats were supposed to get. This reinforces the notion that the Israeli navy is considered the preferred backup for deterrence on the strategic level.

 

[SABRE]

In this age physical testing doesn't mean half as much as it used too. These days you can generally run a computer simulation on a project to see if it would successful or not and if it isn't successful or doesn't produce the required outcome you can adjust parameters and see what difference it makes.

Physical testing still means a lot. Its just that it is not politically feasible.

For computer simulation - Cold Test - you need data from the actual tests. Without such a data you can carryout tests but their validity would be questionable.

Thats my opinion what they're doing for testing if they have them anyway. The issue is if they have them, why are they not being so public about it. To me thats far more sinister.

One reason, & probably the most important one, is that Nixon and Golda Mayer had a deal. U.S. will not intervene in Israel's nuclear weapons program as long as Israeli does not tests them or explicitly declares itself as nuclear power.

For this reason, the Israeli tests were carried out by the South Africans - as reported by many sources - most recently the "Twilight of the Bomb" by Richard Rhodes.

 

[CheefCoach]

Only they knows for sure, but it is presumed that they have them. That is worth same as they having them .

 

[gazzzwp]

Only they knows for sure, but it is presumed that they have them. That is worth same as they having them .

My understanding is that the technology to achieve a high percentage enrichment is one hurdle; the next problem that the original team at Los Alamos faced was the implosion detonation device. Getting highly enriched uranium to produce a chain reaction is by no means simple. Unless the Israelis came into possession of computer models from say the US then the question has to be posed; do they have a reliable working platform? In fact that makes a lot of sense. One way for the US to prevent Israel from conducting tests would be to provide them with the proven models and design parameters.

Then again I cannot believe that they would be that complacent to not have a working device surrounded as they are by hostile nations. Israel prides itself on being a technologically advanced nation. Then there is the biggest smoking gun of all in this saga:

[ame="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mordechai_Vanunu"]Mordechai Vanunu - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia[/ame]

Which must say a great deal.