Tartus and Latakia, reopening for business?

[merocaine]

I was wondering chaps what you think about Admiral Vladimir Masorin musings about the Russian Navy reopening its bases in Syria.

First off what kind of Naval power would the Russians be able to project into the region in the next 10 to 15 years? for me that a :unknown

Heres my take

It would complicate the Israeli security with Syria (and vise versa), limiting Israeli options regarding air power, esp if the Russians decide on a layered air defence system for the bases.
http://www.kommersant.com/p793357/overseas_military_bases_navy/

It would finally give the 6th fleet something to do

And even if the plans don't go ahead they could end up giving the Russians a serious buy into negotiations for a settlement between Syria, Israel and the Leb.

 

[contedicavour]

I was wondering chaps what you think about Admiral Vladimir Masorin musings about the Russian Navy reopening its bases in Syria.

First off what kind of Naval power would the Russians be able to project into the region in the next 10 to 15 years? for me that a :unknown

Heres my take

It would complicate the Israeli security with Syria (and vise versa), limiting Israeli options regarding air power, esp if the Russians decide on a layered air defence system for the bases.
http://www.kommersant.com/p793357/overseas_military_bases_navy/

It would finally give the 6th fleet something to do

And even if the plans don't go ahead they could end up giving the Russians a serious buy into negotiations for a settlement between Syria, Israel and the Leb.

Hmm if Russia wants to show the flag more often then they need sizeable surface ships. The Black Sea fleet is too small and old to provide ships (the only powerful unit being the Moskva of the Slava class). With the Baltic republics being unfriendly to Russian requests over Russian ethnic minorities, I don't see the Baltic fleet being weakened. So it will be up to the Northern Fleet to provide some ships. A couple of Sovremennys plus a Udaloy and some support ships ? This would impress journalists and politicians. Even if it would not worry the US 6th fleet or the Israeli navy and air force.

cheers

 

[merocaine]

I dont think Russia would come to the defence of Syria in the event of war but if the Sovremennys did arrive I do think they would pose a significent threat to Israeli vessels, in those kind of waters with things being so close and personal the sunburn would not give the Israelis much reaction time.
Plus the air defence's for the bases themselves would cover large parts of Syria itself, esp if they are deploying the S400's.

If this deployment goes ahead the Lebonese coast pretty chokablock with assorted naval vessels! Italian, French, German, Danish, US.. its a pretty long list. I dont see a couple of Sovremennys making a hugh difference to the balance of forces.

 

[contedicavour]

I dont think Russia would come to the defence of Syria in the event of war but if the Sovremennys did arrive I do think they would pose a significent threat to Israeli vessels, in those kind of waters with things being so close and personal the sunburn would not give the Israelis much reaction time.
Plus the air defence's for the bases themselves would cover large parts of Syria itself, esp if they are deploying the S400's.

If this deployment goes ahead the Lebonese coast pretty chokablock with assorted naval vessels! Italian, French, German, Danish, US.. its a pretty long list. I dont see a couple of Sovremennys making a hugh difference to the balance of forces.

So long as the SAMs don't protect the area between the Golan and Damascus I don't think the Israelis would care. Besides, if the Sovs and Udaloys leave their bases they are vulnerable because it isn't SA-N-7 or SA-N-9 that would provide good theatre air defence over the naval task force.
I really see more an attempt at flag waving with something better than the obsolete Krivak, Kashin and Karas coming from the Black Sea Fleet.

cheers