Sri Lankan Civil War Nearing its End?

[SABRE]

With all the big conflicts going around the world one tends to forget the smaller ones which are equally important & interesting. Their outcome is can also be of greater impact to other countries in the region. One such conflict is Sri Lankan government (Sinhala) vs Tamil Tigers (LTTE).

About few years back the LTTE was controlling much of the North & North East of Sri Lanka & also had strongholds on the North East (near Indian border). The Lankan army was considered to be one of the weakest in the world. LTTE is a very unique militant group as it posses land, naval as well as air power along with radars. There was a time when Lankan soldiers couldn't even compete with LTTE. In fact Lank army used to abondon their tanks to LTTE & run off. There was a point where Northern (Tamil) part of Lanka had vertually become a separate country & Lankan government had almost lost the battle.

However, recently with political changes in Sri Lanka came changes in the Lankan Army as well, especially in terms of motivation. A couple of year (or more) back the Lankan army launched a massive attack on the LTTE basis killing even some of the their top leaders. During this time LTTE also attacked convy of Pakistani ambassador as it blamed Pakistan for providing support to Lankan Army. The actions of LTTE proved its frustration.

This is now the recent situation:

Map from BBC's website

The Lankan army has reduced the LTTE strong holds & has freed large parts of land. The LTTE strong holds near the Indian sides has also been taken over by the Lankan army.

Lankan Army is now closing into the town of Kilinochchi. Many regional experts believe that the fall of town will bring vertual end to the LTTE.

KILINOCHCHI TOWN

* The capital of Kilinochchi District, part of the Northern Province of Sri Lanka
* Serves as the administrative centre and headquarters of the Tamil Tigers
* Rebels have their own judiciary and police force in the town
* According to the UN, 90% of population is Tamil
* Town surrounded by thousands of landmines, says the UN
* Government ordered aid agencies to leave, Sept 2008

(Above Info from BBC)




Where the world is getting a hard bashing in War against Terror should Sri Lanka, a very small state, be taken as an example?

 

[Feanor]

Are the Tamil Tigers a terrorist group?

By the way, the only thing other then that the conflict exists, is that Russia recently penned a deal for 6 MiG-29 fighters with the Sri Lanka government.

 

[swerve]

Are the Tamil Tigers a terrorist group?

They set off bombs in public places with the intention of killing civilians. Sometimes just aimed at killing & maiming at random (e.g. in market places), sometimes aimed at political targets.

I've had first-hand accounts of two of their bomb attacks by a photographer who works for Reuters in Sri Lanka. Was on the scene of one by pure luck (escaped unhurt, & got pictures that made his career), & was badly hurt (permanent limp) covering a political rally when the LTTE tried to blow up the president or PM. Still got the pictures, though. Self-confessed adrenaline junkie.

 

[KGB]

Are the Tamil Tigers a terrorist group?

The word terror has been abused to the point of non-meaning these days. It's almost as if any assymetric force not aligned with the US can be considered a 'terrorist group'.

The LTTE is a separatist movement, with suicide bomb wing who's most famous victim was the premier of India, Rajiv Gandhi. It also has a regular armed force and operates a government it its territory. In this sense, it has more in common with Japan in ww2 or the Vietcong in the 60's than say the the PLO.

The interesting question is why, after years and years of stalemate, the Sri Lankan government is making such rapid gains. What changed?

 

[KGB]

They set off bombs in public places with the intention of killing civilians. Sometimes just aimed at killing & maiming at random (e.g. in market places), sometimes aimed at political targets.

Inexcusable yes, but is it much different from the firebombing of Tokyo or Dresden in ww2, for example?

 

[SABRE]

The word terror has been abused to the point of non-meaning these days. It's almost as if any assymetric force not aligned with the US can be considered a 'terrorist group'.

That is why the 3 most prominent scholars of & on South Asia, Pervaiz Iqbal Cheema (Pakistani), P.R. Chari (Indian) & Stephen Cohen (USA), use the word "Militant" because they believe terrorist for one is freedom fighter for another.

The interesting question is why, after years and years of stalemate, the Sri Lankan government is making such rapid gains. What changed?

You'll have to go deep into history to probably understand it. I believe the gains have been achieved since Lankan government decided to either ignore 3rd parties involved in the conflict or utilize their support directly or indirectly.

The new government (after Chandrika Kumara Tunga) has throughn out the negotiations & has decided for an aggressive push. Previous governments were reluctent due to pact with India & later Norway.

Secondly it seems they have brought successful reforms in their armed forces. Probably taking moral boosting & motivation classes or something because previously the lacked it.

They have also been getting advance weapons from Russia & Pakistan. Pakistan has been giving them small weapons & to some reports they have got Pakistani Al-Zarar MBTs (upgraded Chinese T-59 & T-60) & they have been working pretty good with them. Thats the reason LTTE attacked Pakistan ambassador. Indian media claims that Pakistani officers & pilots are helping Lankans 1st hand on the ground. This has been denied by Pakistan.

SL got F-7s from China & MiG-29s from Russia.

They also seem to have cut off the supply routs of LTTE which is making it hard for LTTE to acquire convention weapons. They are now probably relying on Militant activities - recently they plotted a bomb on a bus in Colombo killing few people.

 

[Feanor]

Inexcusable yes, but is it much different from the firebombing of Tokyo or Dresden in ww2, for example?

Well strictly speaking, those were terrorist acts too. Acts of state terrorism in principle no different from German concentration camps established in occupied countries.

 

[kato]

I'm gonna keep my own opinion out of the LTTE terrorism debate up there.

Somewhat worth reading: http://www.thesundayleader.lk/20080622/spotlight-1.htm

Ignore what they're writing on the minimum speed of a MiG-29 though :lol

 

[mohd2590]

who supply weapon to the tamil fighters?

 

[kato]

Largely unknown, even to well-informed people such as SIPRI. Cambodia supposedly delivered a handful SA-7 to LTTE in the mid-90s, though that's unproven too. Quite a lot of things they use seem to be either locally produced, or captured weapons. Their aircraft seem to be procured mostly from the civilian market or shady paramilitary sources (such as in Africa) and then subsequently modified.

 

[swerve]

The LTTE levy a "tax" on overseas Sri Lankan Tamils who have relatives in LTTE-controlled areas. They tax the population under their control, & take a percentage of remittances from abroad. They run rackets abroad, e.g. credit card scams. One was uncovered a while ago in the UK, in which credit cards were cloned using data obtained by Sri Lankan Tamils working in petrol stations, & passed on to LTTE agents. They are reckoned to raise hundreds of millions of dollars per year by these means, & the money is spent on weapons & other equipment for their war. Small arms, ammunition, light aircraft, radios, night vision goggles, GPS, etc. can be bought from civilian sources or black market dealers. They have little heavy equipment. Some has been captured from the Sri Lankan army, & old Soviet artillery is obtainable via unofficial channels: not necessarily in working order, but they can repair it. They have their own workshops, which can make mortars, rockets, etc.

 

[SABRE]

Sea battle off Sri Lankan coast


Sri Lanka's navy says it has fought a sea battle with Tamil rebels, a day after what the military described as the heaviest day of fighting in weeks.
It says that seven small Tamil Tiger boats and three larger craft were destroyed in a fierce clash off north-western Sri Lanka.
The navy says that at least 25 rebels were killed in the clash.
The army says 60 rebels and 11 soldiers died in fighting on Wednesday. There is no word from the rebels.
Meanwhile, police say Tamils in Colombo have been ordered to register, amid concerns about security.



http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/south_asia/7622783.stm






I was wondering when the Lankans are going to start the naval battle, & here it is.

 

[SABRE]

Interesting new development on this topic. The Sri Lankan army has entered LTTE's De'facto capital Kilinochchi (see the map). Certainly a good news for regional stability (at least its taking place somewhere in South Asia).

Sri Lanka troops 'enter rebel HQ'

 

[nevidimka]

I'm not sure what to feel with these latest developments on the LTTE, as the Sri Lankan Tamils's are my brothers.

If its for the good of the Tamils of Sri Lanka, then I have to accept it, but I would not if it brings hardship,marginalization,abuse by the Singhalese Lankan gov.

I'm also curious as to how did suddenly Sri lankan army has been able to make such a great progress into the LTTE heartland. I doubt they could have done it by themselves. They must be having help from outside gov's like the ****** and chinese.

Sure the tactics of the LTTE has not been a good 1 with the methods employed, and its displayed in public for everyone to see. But there are also tactics/ war crimes done by the Sri Lankan army that is swept under the carpet as they are the gov.

I hope an autonomy for the tamil's north would be the best solution for this crisis, and I hope no unnecessary civilian lives are lost.

 

[kato]

If its for the good of the Tamils of Sri Lanka, then I have to accept it, but I would not if it brings hardship,marginalization,abuse by the Singhalese Lankan gov.

Well, if it'll be like pre-LTTE times, it will be exactly that. My parents visited Sri Lanka in the early 70s, and the Tamils were second-class citizens at the time - at most.

I'm also curious as to how did suddenly Sri lankan army has been able to make such a great progress into the LTTE heartland.

It's not really sudden. It's just the culmination of at least half a year of a successful campaign into LTTE-held territory. The government forces, over the past two years, have increasingly been able to - while not pacify - at least hold territory captured from the LTTE. The fight for Kilinochchi itself has lasted for weeks now, preparation for it took place months ago.

As a little update - the government declared Kilinochchi "freed" 6 hours ago now.
Supposedly, LTTE has long moved its HQ and civilian infrastructure farther east of course, the city itself has mostly symbolic value; apparently no LTTE commanders were captured or killed.

 

[funtz]

Can the LTTE hold the area they have right now? Is it possible?(the supply routes have not been as accessible as they used to be).

The discussion above seems very strange, around this world many communities have fought discrimination without killing others, and have been more successful than the ones who have fought with guns and bombs.

How can the LTTE survive without any nation supporting it, all the donated money, extortion money, taxation from a non functioning economical area, drug running/gun running is bound to run out as other nations get more serious about stopping such activities.

 

[dragonfire]

The LTTE has moved into a complete defensive position and is being overrun by the SL Army. The army has learnt leasons from its previous campaigns and is moving in a very decidely deliberate manner; there is heavy artilery shelling followed by attack choppers and Air Force Migs(27s, 29s) in clearing defensive installations and folowed by tanks and infantry

 

[SABRE]

Can the LTTE hold the area they have right now? Is it possible?(the supply routes have not been as accessible as they used to be).

I think they can. The question is can they take North-East where the majority Tamil civilians have fled? There SL may find some stiff resistance but the actual goal can be the Jaffna peninsula now where the LTTE's commanders and many fighters may have retreated to.

Considering Jaffna's geographic location I think ground troops will not be enough. Air Force and Navy will have to be extensively used.

The discussion above seems very strange, around this world many communities have fought discrimination without killing others, and have been more successful than the ones who have fought with guns and bombs.

All I can say is that both parties had a chance at negotiations. Both are to be blamed for their failure. Perhaps both were/are rational on their respective sides as well. But at least there have been reports of no genocide like acts by SL army reported so far during the takeover of LTTE strong holds.

How can the LTTE survive without any nation supporting it, all the donated money, extortion money, taxation from a non functioning economical area, drug running/gun running is bound to run out as other nations get more serious about stopping such activities.

One unbias prediction I can give is that Lankan Tamils might either volentarily or by force move/migrate to Indian Tamil regions. I think right now the Tamil civilians might actually be thinking about it. Whether helpful for India or not I can't say.

 

[Feanor]

How large of a population is it? Is it feasible for them to flee to India across the sea without any governmental support? Is infrastructure there to support that many refugees?

 

[SABRE]

How large of a population is it? Is it feasible for them to flee to India across the sea without any governmental support? Is infrastructure there to support that many refugees?

2002 reports state 12% of Sri Lankan population is Tamil. There are also Tamil speaking Muslims in Sri Lanka (Central Sri Lanka) but they are catogrized separately from concerned Tamil population (Muslim Tamils also view themselves separate from other Tamils). There is another Tamil minority population called "Indian Tamils" who were brought by British when the occupied Sri Lanka. Don't know their status in Sri Lanka. I have heard they mostly prefer to live in silence in Sinhali majority areas. Over Tamil population in 2002 is said to be 18%.

According to wikipedia Tamils number in 3, 000, 000.

Many Tamils have already migrated to else where (USA, Canada, UK; else where in Europe as well as India). I don't think Tamils can migrate to India that easily, especially without governmental support from there. India may be willing to take the Tamil population but they would/should be reluctent to take the LTTE militants.

Migration would be more easier to India for those who have moved into Jaffna. For those who moved to North-East we'll have to see.