Generalissimo
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Despite the fact that Chavez claims that he does not want war these actions are in the exact opposite direction. This crisis will probably end when the United States makes a show of support for Columbia.
South American Tensions
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Generalissimo
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Chavez has also cut off diplomatic relations.
This pretty much ends all hope for Columbian hostages of FARC to be freed anytime soon. At the very least it isn't gonna have anything to do with Chavez. But as I said earlier I think that this is just a particularly bad case of Hugo's machismo getting the better of him. I doubt that actual violence will result.
More empty hot air coming out of his mouth, he thinks by sending some old AMX 30`s and threatening to use his premier new toys from Russia that Columbia will cow down to him. All this type of behavior does is make additional South American countries not trust him.
behavior
I agree with eckherl this type of behavior does him little good because in the end he'll order his forces to stand down and he'll lose face. Other governments will take notice of his actions. Colombia's ground forces are trained up because there ongoing battle with the FARC and would rate Colombia's ground forces a little higher. Does anybody know how many AMX tanks Venezuela's army has? I know there air force isn't as equipped as Chavez thinks. Number of Vipers are grounded, Mirage 5/50 not good, his new toys (Flankers) there pilots might be in there third year of training? This is just for show period, show a little support to Ecuador and FARC, nothing more.
I agree with eckherl this type of behavior does him little good because in the end he'll order his forces to stand down and he'll lose face. Other governments will take notice of his actions. Colombia's ground forces are trained up because there ongoing battle with the FARC and would rate Colombia's ground forces a little higher. Does anybody know how many AMX tanks Venezuela's army has? I know there air force isn't as equipped as Chavez thinks. Number of Vipers are grounded, Mirage 5/50 not good, his new toys (Flankers) there pilots might be in there third year of training? This is just for show period, show a little support to Ecuador and FARC, nothing more.
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I do wonder if Chavez has broader ambitions in South and Central America. Dabbling in foreign politics, his alliance with Cuba, and an arms program that doesn't make much sense given the absence of threats to Venezuela. In addition, sometimes governments look to foreign affairs when things aren't going well domestically. Something to keep an eye on.
More then I thought
I must admit there better armed then I thought on the ground I don't think Colombia has anything like that. Training and how well is this equipment maintain is my next question? Colombia has a lot of Blackhawk's and can move light infantry and air mobile infantry pretty well. Some of there Blackhawk's are the G model for gunship and saw pictures of them rigged out that way. Maybe some here knows Colombia's army well I'm interested in knowing how good are there anti-tank defenses and artillery? Is Ecuador mobilizing forces too on Colombia's border as well? That would be an interesting situation for any military to deal with enemies on east and west borders/flanks, maybe naval threats to the north, and a possibilities of FARC rebels using your southern flank against you or to move forces and equipment. Are US forces in Colombia stationed near the border or in harms way?
If Venezuela attack would Brazil or maybe Peru help?
I must admit there better armed then I thought on the ground I don't think Colombia has anything like that. Training and how well is this equipment maintain is my next question? Colombia has a lot of Blackhawk's and can move light infantry and air mobile infantry pretty well. Some of there Blackhawk's are the G model for gunship and saw pictures of them rigged out that way. Maybe some here knows Colombia's army well I'm interested in knowing how good are there anti-tank defenses and artillery? Is Ecuador mobilizing forces too on Colombia's border as well? That would be an interesting situation for any military to deal with enemies on east and west borders/flanks, maybe naval threats to the north, and a possibilities of FARC rebels using your southern flank against you or to move forces and equipment. Are US forces in Colombia stationed near the border or in harms way?
If Venezuela attack would Brazil or maybe Peru help?
Generalissimo
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The Columbian Army is very lacking in any sort of heavy equipment because they have been fighting a jungle based counterinsurgeny on a short budget for decades. A quick Wikipedia search showed that their only armour consists of EE-11s and some other aging Brazillian wheeled LAVs. However one should not underestimate the prowess of Columbia's infantry, they are well trained and there are 7 divisions of them in the Columbian Army. The Columbian army as was stated is quite air mobile, so it would not have much of a problem transferring forces quickly between two fronts and to hotspots were FARC to go on the offensive.
Ecudaor is not mobilizing, as this incident is merely Chavez bravado. Ecuador is probably not at all welcome to this development because according to the Columbians, the President of Ecuador was notified as the operation was taking place. At least officialy there are not any combat US forces in Columbia. There are training liasons and the like but they are not likely to be in harms way, no. However I would wager that if this incident goes any further the US will put a stop to it with some stern words to Chavez. The US would not stand by and allow Columbia to be invaded.
Musashi_kenshin
Well-Known Member
A childish temper-tantrum by Chavez. It's not surprising he praised a guy like Reyes, as he doesn't care if people are murderers/terrorists so long as they oppose countries supported by America. So he's protesting the death of a fellow "anti-American revolutionary" by doing the only thing he knows how - kicking up a sh*t-storm to show off how "important" he is.
To add to Generalissimo`s well stated post, I will state that Venezuela`s mechanized equipment is in good condition but training is lack luster, for experience in that type of terrian I would have to give it to the Columbians.
Chavez looks at the US as a serious threat to Venezuela. He also wants to make Venezuela a regional power to push his Socialist agenda towards the whole of Latin America.
I don't think Chavez is seriously threatening Colombia with war. It's just a show solidarity with Ecuador and bit of muscle flexing meant to scare Colombia from ever striking them again. If Ecuador makes similar moves as Venezuela then Colombia has a reason to be scared and only then would I say the situation is getting serious.
You shouldn't underestimate things.
It's not like the Colombian Air Force is the primer air force of Latin America. Their inventory isn't that great either. In fact, it's much worse than Venezuela's.
A few (cannibalized) F-16's, Mirage 50's and a squadron of Su-30's is way more than what Colombia can handle in the air. It would especially suck if some of the Flanker pilots turn out to be ex-Viper drivers with US-style training (German F-4 veterans in MiG-29's scenario; they turned out to be extremely good in the air).
You posted something about Colombia buying some Kfir planes from Israel a week or so ago. Maybe you could help tell us more about the situation of their air force. Is there a possibility of Colombian pilots being trained commercially by the Israeli Air Force?
Exactly. But I think this might actually turn out to benefit him in a way. He might to be trying to use this as a show of force. "The first public display of the new and improved Venezuelan army" if you will
. It might also show how far he's willing to go to protect the sovereignty of his allies which would work in his favor. But then again it might make him out to look like an over-aggressive goon who, by some miracle, got elected for president. The latter is more likely if he actually goes to war without any (further) provocation from Colombia.I doubt anythings going to happen, though.
One question, though. Aren't there Colombian soldiers being trained by the Navy SEAL's for counter-drug operations? If so, wouldn't they be of great help in a conflict with Venezuela?
Colombia
Colombia air force is in no shape or form to handle what Venezuela has I guess I could have worded that differently. They do have I believe 11 Kfir C7, 7 Mirage 5COA, 2 Mirage 5COD, and 12 or handful of Super Tucano, according to the quick search, not much. The Tucano's work and have been used for COIN operations and could be used against Venezuelan ground targets. Not sure the state of the older Mirage-5 or C-7 Kfir's. A small group of Vipers patched together and even just cannon armed Flankers would have a edge if Chavez had the will to do it. Colombia could move some of there Spider SAM's close to the border to off set Venezuela's air assets a little. The more I think of it Venezuela's Viper drivers couldn't get a lot of stick time with the part shortage. eaf-f16 do you know if Russia delivered any air to air weapons yet to Venezuela? I can't seem to be able to confirm that if you have a link please send it. The Colombian Kfir C-7 drivers have Python IV currently and had the fighters for a descent about of time and should be trained. Any American trained F-16 Venezuelan pilots might be in there late 30s or early 40s and might not be active pilots anymore. You figure the Venezuelan pilots had to be in 22 to 25 years old when they started and they bought those A/B not upgraded Vipers a long time ago. I wonder what the age life of L type-Sidewinders they shouldn't have the M upgrade types I think they came out after they were cut off. The VAF would look mighty foolish if a C-7 Kfir got a lucky Python IV kill against one of his pretty new Flankers?
Venezuela will stand down all that armor and artillery couldn't all be on Colombia's border right? Colombia's G model Blackhawk's would be effective up to a point against some of that mechanized forces and better at night too.
Colombia air force is in no shape or form to handle what Venezuela has I guess I could have worded that differently. They do have I believe 11 Kfir C7, 7 Mirage 5COA, 2 Mirage 5COD, and 12 or handful of Super Tucano, according to the quick search, not much. The Tucano's work and have been used for COIN operations and could be used against Venezuelan ground targets. Not sure the state of the older Mirage-5 or C-7 Kfir's. A small group of Vipers patched together and even just cannon armed Flankers would have a edge if Chavez had the will to do it. Colombia could move some of there Spider SAM's close to the border to off set Venezuela's air assets a little. The more I think of it Venezuela's Viper drivers couldn't get a lot of stick time with the part shortage. eaf-f16 do you know if Russia delivered any air to air weapons yet to Venezuela? I can't seem to be able to confirm that if you have a link please send it. The Colombian Kfir C-7 drivers have Python IV currently and had the fighters for a descent about of time and should be trained. Any American trained F-16 Venezuelan pilots might be in there late 30s or early 40s and might not be active pilots anymore. You figure the Venezuelan pilots had to be in 22 to 25 years old when they started and they bought those A/B not upgraded Vipers a long time ago. I wonder what the age life of L type-Sidewinders they shouldn't have the M upgrade types I think they came out after they were cut off. The VAF would look mighty foolish if a C-7 Kfir got a lucky Python IV kill against one of his pretty new Flankers?
Venezuela will stand down all that armor and artillery couldn't all be on Colombia's border right? Colombia's G model Blackhawk's would be effective up to a point against some of that mechanized forces and better at night too.
Generalissimo
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On the issue of an Ecuadorian mobilization:
What could cause a problem here though is some "act of God", like an airplane crash, someone accidentally opening fire, or a particularly nasty move by FARC.
By the way I don't see how the FARC terrorists were killed in their pajamas if a Columbian Special Forces trooper was killed in the operation.
And also, from the Ecuadoran military:
This is from the AP. So as someone said, an Ecuadorian Army deployment is the next level of escalation. That seems to have happened in at least small numbers. I doubt that Ecuador will launch an attack with three battalions, so therefore I doubt that they will launch an attack at all. Surely little Ecuador is not willing to face the wrath of the United States if it were to participate in causing such a mess right on Uncle Sam's doorstep. This is probably just to deter further incursions.
What could cause a problem here though is some "act of God", like an airplane crash, someone accidentally opening fire, or a particularly nasty move by FARC.
By the way I don't see how the FARC terrorists were killed in their pajamas if a Columbian Special Forces trooper was killed in the operation.
Well, they may also use FARC guerillas as proxies in case of a conflict. And Cuban AF shouldn't be discounted either, even with these rather low numbers!
Meanwhile, Ecuador withdraws ambassador from Colombia
The U.S will pretty much ask everyone to stay out of it and will soley help assist Columbia, could already be the reason why you are not hearing anything. In the end it will be situations like this that everyone in that regoin will be scrambling for additional weapons.
Generalissimo
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Yes I can see it now. F-16s ans Strykers to Columbia, Javellins and PAC-IIs to Peru, Rafales to Chile. A payday for the US/EU weapons industry.
On the other hand, maybe Brazil could make some money off this. They have a small def industry with pretty good products that have just never found a market. A South American arms race would be very good for them.
PS I don't actually think that all those specific purchases will be made, I'm just using them as examples.
Russia should be able to do quite well also, but who knows with the recent weapon systems purchase issues with China, India and Algeria.
Weapons for the region
Talking
You are so right this is how I started following South American military matters in the first it was right after the Peruvian-Ecuadorian 1995 war. Soon after Peru got rip off buying some used and hardly flyable Mig-29As and a batch of Su-25, that Peru like right away. I read from a Peruvian in this other forum that France wanted $10 million per to upgrade Peru's old 1988 Mirage 2000-P to 5 standards. He also state that Russia was doing well in the first round of upgrades working on the Peruvian Fulcrums when Peru ran out of money and stop paying. Ecuador's oil industry is doing a little better so one can expect future purchases I'm thinking Chinese, but its only a feeling. Colombia should have got F-16s two or three years ago to sort of keep up a little with Venezuela. Peru has always been a Russian and French shop but I think for the US not to lose another South American government and since Peru and Colombia share a border, maybe let them in on the F-16 deal. Keep LM production lines open until 2014/15, why not. I think Brazil should stop thinking about building subs and get a Rafale factory setup already. If Bolivia leans a little more toward Venezuela I see a squadron of Chinese made K-8 flying with China buying up there natural gas. I can't figure out Argentina they never bought Russian or Chinese before (fighters) and are mad at the US but can't afford French prices, so I do know any ideas? http://www.defencetalk.com/forums/images/icons/icon10.gif
Talking
exported_kiwi
New Member
Regarding Venezuelas armoured forces; is there any terrain on, or near the border with Columbia, where such forces could be properly used? I'd have thought that that area is extremely mountainous and heavily forested which'd effectively nullify any armoured forces.
Yeah, Venezuela has some nice new toys in the VAF but we all know that having the toys and using them properly, by trained operators is the key. If Israel is involved somehow with supplying or training the CAF, then I'd imagine that it's training and employment of the older aircraft that'd win the day, and if push came to shove, wouldn't the USAF "contract" some of their aircrew and aircraft (markings removed of course) to the CAF, something like the old Flying Tigers in China during WW2?
I think Chavez is a blowhard who knows that he has to be the way he is in order to be seen, by his own people, as a strong leader. The way he's going about making friends in the region and the world is nothing to brag about though.
Let's hope that peace is preferable to this Chavez and not a war, that is none of his, or his peoples business anyway!
As for Cuba, maybe they'd do nothing now that Fidel isn't leader anymore and it's been said that Raul is totally in charge. Guess we'll see what's what if and when something happens and Chavez asks for help in return for his financial support.
Yeah, Venezuela has some nice new toys in the VAF but we all know that having the toys and using them properly, by trained operators is the key. If Israel is involved somehow with supplying or training the CAF, then I'd imagine that it's training and employment of the older aircraft that'd win the day, and if push came to shove, wouldn't the USAF "contract" some of their aircrew and aircraft (markings removed of course) to the CAF, something like the old Flying Tigers in China during WW2?
I think Chavez is a blowhard who knows that he has to be the way he is in order to be seen, by his own people, as a strong leader. The way he's going about making friends in the region and the world is nothing to brag about though.
Let's hope that peace is preferable to this Chavez and not a war, that is none of his, or his peoples business anyway!
As for Cuba, maybe they'd do nothing now that Fidel isn't leader anymore and it's been said that Raul is totally in charge. Guess we'll see what's what if and when something happens and Chavez asks for help in return for his financial support.