Russian Military action in Europe soon?

[DarthAmerica]

I'm thinking Kosovo, Ukraine, Belarus or Georgia.

More specifically they could instigate and support a Serb crackdown on Kosovo independence, put direct pressure on Ukraine, reincorporate Belarus into Russia or take direct military action against Georgia. Does anybidy else see this as a possibility?

The motive would be to reassert their status as a major power along their periphery while the USA is tied up in the Middle East, near Presidential Elections and the EU is still economically vulnerable and militarily unable to oppose them in these countries.

All three of these nations are in precarious positions in regard to Russia and their are realistic achievable objectives that should not cause a direct confrontation with the USA.

Does any of this sound reasonable?


-DA

 

[kato]

Russian action in Kosovo has been "suggested" before. In a (serious) scenario with a unilateral independance declaration, Russian forces could invade and hold Serbian-majority areas to facilitate a separation of these areas, or so it went i think. That potential (and very likely, soon) unilateral Albanian independence declaration is the actual problem for the UN and EUFOR, not some Serbian "crackdown" on independance.

Georgia: Russian forces already are there. Abchasia, remember?

 

[Grand Danois]

Moldova?

 

[DarthAmerica]

Moldova?

I'm not too familiar with this one. I'll have to do a bit of reading when I get time. My general hypothesis is that Russia will try by whatever means it can to regain lost territories and influence so long as it doesn't involve a direct conflict with the United States. That begs the question of how significant is Moldova to Russian national security interest.

Kosovo is militarily insignificant but politically important.

Belarus is important because it puts Russia close to the Baltics.

Ukraine is a buffer against NATO expansion.

Georgia is of course a former Soviet state in Russia's border under heavy US influence.

Moldova?


-DA

 

[swerve]

...
Kosovo is militarily insignificant but politically important.

Agreed

Belarus is important because it puts Russia close to the Baltics.

No, Russia is already close to the Baltics. Right up against them. When I was in eastern Estonia & NE Latvia in 1995 the signposts pointing to Russian towns across the border didn't have big numbers on them.

Belarus is important because it puts Russia next to Poland. Kaliningrad doesn't count because it's an easily snuffed out enclave.

Ukraine is a buffer against NATO expansion.

Agreed. As long as it doesn't swing West, hence Russian meddling in internal Ukrainian politics.

Georgia is of course a former Soviet state in Russia's border under heavy US influence.

Yes.

Moldova?
-DA

A mostly Romanian-speaking former Soviet state, complicated by a narrow strip on the east bank of the River Dniester (Transdnistria), which formed the border pre-WW2, which Stalin took from Ukraine & gave to Moldova, perhaps just to prevent it being too ethnically homogeneous & geographically well-defined. Said strip is outside the control of the government, thanks largely to the intervention of the local Russian (ex-Soviet) garrison in the early 1990s, when it sided with the Russians & Ukrainians who form much of the local population when they rebelled against Moldovan independence. It now has, in effect, a criminal economy (drug smuggling, people-trafficking, etc), & still has a small contingent of Russian troops stationed in it.

Infinite capacity for trouble-making.

 

[DarthAmerica]

Reference Map:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Image:Rzeczpospolita2nar.png


-DA

 

[jthieme]

Question about significance

It is a possibility, but why would it be in Russia's significant interest? As in, what value if any would this region hold for Russia. I'm not extremely familiar with Russian geography, politics, or history; but why would this be in their interest for economic value or strategic military placement? Closer to the western powers? Or are you talking in terms of a response to the US's missile shield being placed (or most likely being placed) in eastern Europe? Don't get me wrong, I wouldn't be surprised if Russia would try to do this, as has been previously stated on this post and history alike, Russians love to flex their muscles. As do a lot of other countries for that matter.

 

[XaNDeR]

I doubt it , they have no big motive to do so atm , they are modernizing and rebuilding their army to be far more effective and replacing the old eqipment , it would be far more possible that it would happen in a few years or decades but not anytime soon.

 

[TimmyC]

I'm thinking Kosovo, Ukraine, Belarus or Georgia.

More specifically they could instigate and support a Serb crackdown on Kosovo independence, put direct pressure on Ukraine, reincorporate Belarus into Russia or take direct military action against Georgia. Does anybidy else see this as a possibility?

The motive would be to reassert their status as a major power along their periphery while the USA is tied up in the Middle East, near Presidential Elections and the EU is still economically vulnerable and militarily unable to oppose them in these countries.

All three of these nations are in precarious positions in regard to Russia and their are realistic achievable objectives that should not cause a direct confrontation with the USA.

Does any of this sound reasonable?


-DA

The political and economic consequences of such action in todays Europe would be colossal.
Not to mention the partisan resistance it would create that Russia would have to deal with.

But yes, i wouldn't put it past them...

 

[Ophir]

I doubt it , they have no big motive to do so atm , they are modernizing and rebuilding their army to be far more effective and replacing the old eqipment , it would be far more possible that it would happen in a few years or decades but not anytime soon.

Quite so.

1) A military adventure in Kosovo will probably play well internally, but possible US-UN-EU outcry is too great a risk to undertake in order to help some Slavic brothers. Seriously, the present leadership is pretty pragmatic, and we cannot gain anything out of the hypothetical bold foray into Kosovo.

2) Ukraine is out of question. It's akin to the US invading Canada over the lumber dispute. We may try to influence their internal affairs, but any attack upon Ukraine would be political suicide for anyone in the Kremlin. The ties between our nations are too strong.

3) Belarus -- why? It is our ally, more or less.

4) Moldova -- again, not many things to gain, and certain international condemnation to follow. Plus, freaking Ukraine out.

 

[DarthAmerica]

Quite so.

1) A military adventure in Kosovo will probably play well internally, but possible US-UN-EU outcry is too great a risk to undertake in order to help some Slavic brothers. Seriously, the present leadership is pretty pragmatic, and we cannot gain anything out of the hypothetical bold foray into Kosovo.

2) Ukraine is out of question. It's akin to the US invading Canada over the lumber dispute. We may try to influence their internal affairs, but any attack upon Ukraine would be political suicide for anyone in the Kremlin. The ties between our nations are too strong.

3) Belarus -- why? It is our ally, more or less.

4) Moldova -- again, not many things to gain, and certain international condemnation to follow. Plus, freaking Ukraine out.

Remember, I was rather specific in which nations I saw direct Russian military action being plausible. I think Russians are awesome strategist and would not squander away recent gains with physical invasions of nations like Ukraine, The Baltics or Belarus. It would attract too much attention and could potentially put Russia on a collision course with the USA and NATO. Definately not in Russian interest. They could apply political pressure of the threat of force...

...While Russia is hardly able to challenge NATO over Kosovo directly due to geography and logistics. It could certainly push SERBIA into doing the heavy lifting and actual fighting by merely playing a supporting role. Again, I'll leave Moldova out of this because I am not as familiar with it but Georgia is certainly vulnerable to Russian Military action. Logistically its close and it would be very difficult for the USA(due to OIF/OEF) or EU to do anything about it outside of the U.N. but since Russia is on the UNSC that would be symbolic only. Georgia is on it's way to becoming a NATO member IIRC toward the end of the decade at which point Russia's options are severly limited.

-DA

 

[Ophir]

...While Russia is hardly able to challenge NATO over Kosovo directly due to geography and logistics. It could certainly push SERBIA into doing the heavy lifting and actual fighting by merely playing a supporting role.

There is nothing to gain and lots to lose for Russia; anyway, Serbia is unlikely to undertake a military operation in Kosovo.

Again, I'll leave Moldova out of this because I am not as familiar with it but Georgia is certainly vulnerable to Russian Military action. Logistically its close and it would be very difficult for the USA(due to OIF/OEF) or EU to do anything about it outside of the U.N. but since Russia is on the UNSC that would be symbolic only. Georgia is on it's way to becoming a NATO member IIRC toward the end of the decade at which point Russia's options are severly limited.

In my opinion, Georgia is a possibility, although a distant one. Our relations have arguably been worse during the tenure of Gamsakhurdia, but Saakashvili hasn't proved himself our ally either. Still, there is no preparation of public opinion for the eventual armed conflict here and, barring some serious anti-Russian action on part of Georgia, the possibility of us attacking Tbilisi remains distant.