MOSCOW. (Military commentator Nikita Petrov for RIA Novosti) - Due to the recent reshuffle in Russian corridors of power, it appears that the defense minister will have to put off his visit to China, planned for this September, until spring.
This is the second delay of such visit. The first one happened in late March 2007, after Sergei Ivanov stepped down as defense minister and was appointed first deputy prime minister. His successor, Anatoly Serdyukov, who previously headed the Federal Taxation Service, needed time to gain an insight into Defense Ministry affairs.
However, experts believe that the decision to call off the defense minister's visits to China has more far-reaching implications.
Although the world's two largest countries maintain close military ties (including the August international counter-terrorist exercise Peace Mission 2007, which involved the Shanghai Cooperation Organization, or SCO, as well as 2,000 and 1,700 Russian and Chinese servicemen), bilateral military-technical cooperation has slowed down in the last few years.
The Russian-Chinese intergovernmental commission, which had previously discussed this issue once or twice a year in Beijing and Moscow, has not met even once in the last two years.
Moreover, the Russian defense industry is not fulfilling any major Chinese contracts at present.
The Chinese navy has received four Project 956-E Sovremenny-class destroyers featuring 3M-80E Moskit (SS-N-22 Sunburn) supersonic anti-ship missiles, as well as two Project 877-EKM Varshavyanka (Kilo)-class diesel-electric attack and two Project 636 Amur (improved Kilo)-class submarines with Club-C anti-ship missile systems built at the Admiralty Shipyard in St. Petersburg.
Russia has also delivered all Sukhoi Su-27MKK fighter assembly kits, as well as AL-31F engines and avionics, to an aircraft plant in Shengyang and fulfilled all contracts as regards the S-300PMU and Tor-M1 surface-to-air missile (SAM) systems.
The Chkalov Aircraft Production Plant in Tashkent, the capital of Uzbekistan, failed to manufacture several dozen Ilyushin Il-76MD Candid strategic transport planes for the Chinese armed forces. Moscow was also unable to relocate production to its Ulyanovsk Aircraft Plant in the Volga region.
Chinese orders, which recently accounted for up to 40% of Russian arms export volumes worth $6.5 billion, are now dwindling. Moreover, Russia and China have not signed any new contracts to date.
Beijing says it no longer needs relatively ineffective Russian weapons without the relevant production licenses, and that Moscow should start selling more advanced, hard-hitting and hi-tech weaponry and military equipment. Most importantly, China wants to launch their joint production, to receive state-of-the-art defense technologies, inventions and composite materials.
According to experts, the General Armaments Department of the People's Liberation Army wants to buy large batches of Russian-made Shmel (Bumblebee) rocket infantry flame-throwers, 120mm Nona-SVK and Vena self-propelled guns, 152mm Msta-S self-propelled artillery systems, 300mm Smerch (Tornado) multiple-launch rocket systems (MLRSs), T-90S main battle tanks, BMP-3 infantry fighting vehicles, BTR-80 armored personnel carriers (APCs), Mil Mi-28N Havoc and Kamov Ka-50 Hokum "Black Shark" attack helicopters, various types of three-dimensional radars, naval Shtil-1 R-29RM (SS-N-23) surface-to-air missiles on vertical launchers, as well as electronic counter-measures (ECM) systems, Ka-27 and Helix Ka-28 ship-borne helicopters, know-how for manufacturing fourth-generation and fifth-generation aircraft engines, highly alloyed steels and other materials.
Chinese wheeled APCs and 100mm self-propelled guns involved in Peace Mission 2007 had trouble operating over rugged terrain at the Russian 34th Motorized Rifle Division's training facility near Chebarkul in the Urals region.
Their suspension probably featured substandard steel and therefore was not dependable enough for crossing numerous moats and potholes. Consequently, the Chinese army would be quite happy to obtain the relevant know-how for manufacturing top-quality steel.
But Russia thinks that the Chinese proposals are excessive and even dangerous. Many officials at Russian security agencies are afraid that the sale of hi-tech offensive weapons, namely, tanks, anti-tank guided missiles, tactical missiles and hard-hitting MLRSs to Beijing would impair the defense capability of the Russian armed forces, primarily its units stationed in the Far East and the Baikal region.
At the same time, Russia has no misgivings about supplying MLRSs, large-caliber artillery pieces and many other weapons to India.
Beijing understands Russia's motives but believes that this situation is leading into a blind alley. According to China, the two countries, which are SCO members, hold similar positions on virtually every international issue, cooperate in the UN Security Council and at other international forums; and their leaders always emphasize strategic partnership at bilateral and multilateral summits.
During the latest Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation summit, President Putin told Chinese leader Hu Jintao that Moscow's policy towards his country would not change under his successor.
The Chinese side has proposed taking a break in order to assess the concept, strategic and tactical aspects of bilateral military-technical cooperation and to choose its subsequent venues.
Beijing thinks that Moscow will earn less hard currency due to declining Chinese military orders, which will prompt it to overcome its excessive fears and apprehensions. On the other hand, Russia will have to decide whether it should continue to trust China, or whether it should be guided by the textbook rule that there is nothing more dangerous than a strong neighbor.
In a bid to influence Moscow, Chinese generals and managers of the national defense industry are establishing close contacts with European defense concerns. These talks and visits have not produced any tangible results because the European Union had declared sanctions against China after the 1989 clashes with the opposition on Tiananmen Square in Beijing.
Chinese partners are hinting that EU sanctions will eventually be lifted and Russia would lose mutually beneficial cooperation opportunities.
Mikhail Dmitriyev, director of Russia's Federal Service for Military-Technical Cooperation, will try to solve all these problems during his upcoming talks in Beijing and pave the way for the Russian defense minister's subsequent visit to the Chinese capital.
http://en.rian.ru/analysis/20070925/80780903.html
This is the second delay of such visit. The first one happened in late March 2007, after Sergei Ivanov stepped down as defense minister and was appointed first deputy prime minister. His successor, Anatoly Serdyukov, who previously headed the Federal Taxation Service, needed time to gain an insight into Defense Ministry affairs.
However, experts believe that the decision to call off the defense minister's visits to China has more far-reaching implications.
Although the world's two largest countries maintain close military ties (including the August international counter-terrorist exercise Peace Mission 2007, which involved the Shanghai Cooperation Organization, or SCO, as well as 2,000 and 1,700 Russian and Chinese servicemen), bilateral military-technical cooperation has slowed down in the last few years.
The Russian-Chinese intergovernmental commission, which had previously discussed this issue once or twice a year in Beijing and Moscow, has not met even once in the last two years.
Moreover, the Russian defense industry is not fulfilling any major Chinese contracts at present.
The Chinese navy has received four Project 956-E Sovremenny-class destroyers featuring 3M-80E Moskit (SS-N-22 Sunburn) supersonic anti-ship missiles, as well as two Project 877-EKM Varshavyanka (Kilo)-class diesel-electric attack and two Project 636 Amur (improved Kilo)-class submarines with Club-C anti-ship missile systems built at the Admiralty Shipyard in St. Petersburg.
Russia has also delivered all Sukhoi Su-27MKK fighter assembly kits, as well as AL-31F engines and avionics, to an aircraft plant in Shengyang and fulfilled all contracts as regards the S-300PMU and Tor-M1 surface-to-air missile (SAM) systems.
The Chkalov Aircraft Production Plant in Tashkent, the capital of Uzbekistan, failed to manufacture several dozen Ilyushin Il-76MD Candid strategic transport planes for the Chinese armed forces. Moscow was also unable to relocate production to its Ulyanovsk Aircraft Plant in the Volga region.
Chinese orders, which recently accounted for up to 40% of Russian arms export volumes worth $6.5 billion, are now dwindling. Moreover, Russia and China have not signed any new contracts to date.
Beijing says it no longer needs relatively ineffective Russian weapons without the relevant production licenses, and that Moscow should start selling more advanced, hard-hitting and hi-tech weaponry and military equipment. Most importantly, China wants to launch their joint production, to receive state-of-the-art defense technologies, inventions and composite materials.
According to experts, the General Armaments Department of the People's Liberation Army wants to buy large batches of Russian-made Shmel (Bumblebee) rocket infantry flame-throwers, 120mm Nona-SVK and Vena self-propelled guns, 152mm Msta-S self-propelled artillery systems, 300mm Smerch (Tornado) multiple-launch rocket systems (MLRSs), T-90S main battle tanks, BMP-3 infantry fighting vehicles, BTR-80 armored personnel carriers (APCs), Mil Mi-28N Havoc and Kamov Ka-50 Hokum "Black Shark" attack helicopters, various types of three-dimensional radars, naval Shtil-1 R-29RM (SS-N-23) surface-to-air missiles on vertical launchers, as well as electronic counter-measures (ECM) systems, Ka-27 and Helix Ka-28 ship-borne helicopters, know-how for manufacturing fourth-generation and fifth-generation aircraft engines, highly alloyed steels and other materials.
Chinese wheeled APCs and 100mm self-propelled guns involved in Peace Mission 2007 had trouble operating over rugged terrain at the Russian 34th Motorized Rifle Division's training facility near Chebarkul in the Urals region.
Their suspension probably featured substandard steel and therefore was not dependable enough for crossing numerous moats and potholes. Consequently, the Chinese army would be quite happy to obtain the relevant know-how for manufacturing top-quality steel.
But Russia thinks that the Chinese proposals are excessive and even dangerous. Many officials at Russian security agencies are afraid that the sale of hi-tech offensive weapons, namely, tanks, anti-tank guided missiles, tactical missiles and hard-hitting MLRSs to Beijing would impair the defense capability of the Russian armed forces, primarily its units stationed in the Far East and the Baikal region.
At the same time, Russia has no misgivings about supplying MLRSs, large-caliber artillery pieces and many other weapons to India.
Beijing understands Russia's motives but believes that this situation is leading into a blind alley. According to China, the two countries, which are SCO members, hold similar positions on virtually every international issue, cooperate in the UN Security Council and at other international forums; and their leaders always emphasize strategic partnership at bilateral and multilateral summits.
During the latest Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation summit, President Putin told Chinese leader Hu Jintao that Moscow's policy towards his country would not change under his successor.
The Chinese side has proposed taking a break in order to assess the concept, strategic and tactical aspects of bilateral military-technical cooperation and to choose its subsequent venues.
Beijing thinks that Moscow will earn less hard currency due to declining Chinese military orders, which will prompt it to overcome its excessive fears and apprehensions. On the other hand, Russia will have to decide whether it should continue to trust China, or whether it should be guided by the textbook rule that there is nothing more dangerous than a strong neighbor.
In a bid to influence Moscow, Chinese generals and managers of the national defense industry are establishing close contacts with European defense concerns. These talks and visits have not produced any tangible results because the European Union had declared sanctions against China after the 1989 clashes with the opposition on Tiananmen Square in Beijing.
Chinese partners are hinting that EU sanctions will eventually be lifted and Russia would lose mutually beneficial cooperation opportunities.
Mikhail Dmitriyev, director of Russia's Federal Service for Military-Technical Cooperation, will try to solve all these problems during his upcoming talks in Beijing and pave the way for the Russian defense minister's subsequent visit to the Chinese capital.
http://en.rian.ru/analysis/20070925/80780903.html