Pakistan Floods and Afghanistan

[Sampanviking]

This is a thread about what has not been in the news rather than things that have.

Throughout the early summer, with the build up of the surge and higher rate of casualties from these operations, news from Afghanistan was rarely off the telly and usually as a lead story. Since August, and the floods in Pakistan, Afghanistan has almost vanished from our screens and August casualties are significantly down from the preceding months.

A quick look at a map of Pakistan's roads and the one of the floods clearly show that most of NATO's main supply routes must have been severely affected.
Have the floods therefore caused so much disruption to the NATO supply lines that military operations have ground to a halt?
If so I do hope that none of the aid currently pledged is simply the military budget being cynically passed off as aid and simply being used to reopen Route 55 for Military convoys.

With the lack of news on this subject I am rather hoping people will post what they know or have heard from reputable sources.

 

[Locarnus]

Well, I guess the talibans supply routes (not only material) are in a not so nice shape as well...

It s like strategic winter I guess. Everyone has enough to do with themselfs.

 

[Spetsznaz]

This may seem stupid, but do not leave out of the picture that the Taliban supply routes are ROADS! While NATO can do Airdrops, if ground re-supply becomes an issue

 

[dragonfire]

NATO supplies were severely affected when rows of NATO vehicles in Pakistani logistics compounds were incinerated by extremists on multiple occasions, even though those new items came out, they lacked specifics also there was hardly any follow-up news items about measures taken to prevent and counter such set backs, would appreciate any inputs regarding the same. Also i hope the hardship of the common Pakistani citizen is over and normalcy is restored and at the same time i wish those terrorist camps and terrorists are washed away for good

 

[Sampanviking]

While I am sure that the disruption will have affected all sides, lets not kid ourselves as to whom would be the most affected.

Many Taliban be they from Afghanistan or Pakistan's tribal regions are as much farmers as they are fighters and for many they can live of the land and their own produce. Afghanistan has no shortage of weapons or ammunition from decades of conflict and supplies smuggled across the border are as likely to be taken by donkey over the high passes as they are by truck along the roads.

NATO by comparison has an army of some 150000 troops that rely on Pakistan for nearly everything from tanks to food, water and toilet paper. Trying to supply the total requirement of such a force by air is really unrealistic and hideously expensive. The air freight handling abilities of the the Afghan airports and limited forwarding facilities in the region are wholly inadequate. Beyond this I am sure you will find that there are restrictions based on the types and volume of cargo/ numbers of flights that regional nations will allow to transit their airspace irrespective of capacity handling limits.

This aint Berlin!.

 

[Sampanviking]

I am genuinely astounded by the lack of interest in this subject.

Here is a forum full of former professionals from NATO and NATO affiliated nations happy to split the number of hairs on the head of a pin when it comes to weapon systems and associated tech, and yet ignore something quite critical to the one combat operation that the organisation is involved in.

This summer was supposed to be the year that NATO took the fight to the Taliban. However it appears that the Pakistan Floods have caused so much supply disruption that the campaign has had to go on the defensive and that the Taliban are having to bring the fight to them.

BBC News - Taliban attack Nato bases in Afghanistan's Khost area

 

[webmaster]

As we all know, main resting ground for TTP and other Takfiri pests was network of underground tunnels and caves. Thats where they slept, stored food and weapons. I know from different sources that their storage "caves" were totally damaged during the floods. While the weapons were seen floating in the water and some also witnessed grenades, etc. actually going off in certain areas in western Punjab.

As far as NATO supply routes are concerned, Tajikistan did agree to supply route to Afghanistan for NATO/ISAF forces back in April so I am not sure if they are using this route until the flood waters recede. As someone said, there is always an option to airdrop critical supplies.

 

[OPSSG]

yet ignore something quite critical to the one combat operation that the organisation is involved in.

The fighting season shifts a little? Everybody will take more time to get their act together because of the floods.

This summer was supposed to be the year that NATO took the fight to the Taliban.

One of ISAF's biggest problems, standing up the ANA forces (of sufficient quality and quantity) to hold the gains. If they don't stand-up the ANA, ISAF wins, if any, cannot be sustained and this is the weak spot.

However it appears that the Pakistan Floods have caused so much supply disruption that the campaign has had to go on the defensive and that the Taliban are having to bring the fight to them.

BBC News - Taliban attack Nato bases in Afghanistan's Khost area

The problem of Taliban propaganda will not go away and ISAF has been working to improve but that's a weak spot too.

And I'm astounded at your lack of interest at what China's communications efforts over what has happened with regards to the deaths of HK tourists in the Philippines. Why don't you start a thread on it? Then we can talk about China's ability to communicate with regards to the South China Sea issue and her relations with ASEAN over the disputed areas - in particular the underwater flag planting exercise.

 

[Sampanviking]

Oh I think this is a lot more than shifting a bit. With both highways 5 and 55 out of commission and all of the attendant problems, you have a major transit problem that will run for months at the very least.

Even if they get highway 55 open quickly, what priority would NATO conveys get over relief convoys (not to mention massive amounts of displaced persons on the roads as well).

Hi Webby if you have any info on the conditions of these highways I would be very grateful.

The Turkmenistan route is an alternative but not an easy one as it involves multiple switches from land to sea and of course the supply lines will be optimsed for bulk shipping to Karachi.
In addition, are the Turkoman roads up to standard (or even head to the right places?) do they have sufficient drivers to man the runs?

Airlift is just too expensive and as previously stated restricted by stringent overflight agreements.

And I'm astounded at your lack of interest at what China's communications efforts over what has happened with regards to the deaths of HK tourists in the Philippines. Why don't you start a thread on it? Then we can talk about China's ability to communicate with regards to the South China Sea issue and her relations with ASEAN over the disputed areas - in particular the underwater flag planting exercise.

Do you believe that the hostage crisis and the South China Seas issues are linked!?

 

[OPSSG]

Oh I think this is a lot more than shifting a bit. With both highways 5 and 55 out of commission and all of the attendant problems, you have a major transit problem that will run for months at the very least.

So months is more than a bit in your definition for a 9 year war? But in terms of Obama's initial withdrawal time frame, it's more than a bit. So we are starting to see a push back from the military on the initial time table. However, General Petraeus, has pointed to Obama's recent reminder that "July 2011 will mark the beginning of a process, not the date when the U.S. heads for the exits and turns out the lights." There's some wiggle room and General Petraeus also said: "...as President (Hamid) Karzai has recognized, and as a number of allied leaders noted at the recent G-20 summit, it is going to be a number of years before Afghan forces can truly handle the security tasks in Afghanistan on their own."

Do you believe that the hostage crisis and the South China Seas issues are linked!?

It's your choice to link or de-link it and would differ to your choice. Is it true that China has imposed some form of domestic censorship on reporting in the matter to preserve ties with the current Philippine Administration? And if true, that's surely part of China's greater geo-strategic calculus. My apologies for the off-topic discussion here.

 

[Sampanviking]

When the main logistics line for a major combat operation is knocked out for more than a few days its a potential disaster and months in this instance means until next spring at the earliest. Simply keeping 150000 troops fed and watered could prove challenge enough let alone supplying enough for combat itself.

I know plans for force reduction are already in motion, but this could bring this forward on the basis of necessity rather than strategy and irrespective of any differences between Petraeus and his CinC.

Re the Philippines, I have no desire to either go offtopic here or start a thread on a subject which; despite Police ineptitude, is closer to what America terms "Co-Worker shooting" than anything else. As for censorship in the PRC, I have hardly noticed comment from there being particularly ill or under informed and anything I have read in the official media seems more concerned with registering due official concern, but without whipping up anti Filipino hysteria. Given that the Filipino FM made a statement critical of Hilary's South China Sea's intervention, I see no Geopolitical significance in the event whatsoever.

I have therefore nothing more really to add on this tragedy.

 

[OPSSG]

When the main logistics line for a major combat operation is knocked out for more than a few days its a potential disaster and months in this instance means until next spring at the earliest. Simply keeping 150000 troops fed and watered could prove challenge enough let alone supplying enough for combat itself.

Capt. Kevin Aandahl, a spokesman for United States Transportation Command, which oversees logistics for the war, said that the flooding had slowed supply lines but had not stopped matériel from getting to American troops in Afghanistan. “The bottom line is that stuff is moving,” Captain Aandahl said (see NY Times link dated August 24, 2010).

I understand that goods were still crossing from Pakistan into Afghanistan via the two main border crossings. If you have a link that supports what you say, I would like to see it, otherwise I'll assume that you may be over-stating the situation and difficulties a tad bit. But I think your concerns are legitimate.

There's also a 2008 background peace by Philip Smucker, called 'Asphalt Dreams: Can better highways save Afghanistan?'. And again, I would be happy to differ to your links and resources should you choose to share them with us.

I know plans for force reduction are already in motion, but this could bring this forward on the basis of necessity rather than strategy and irrespective of any differences between Petraeus and his CinC.

Where is the basis of your statement? Source, please? And what do you mean (I honestly don't understand)? Many thanks.

 

[Sampanviking]

I think you misunderstand me OPSSG, I am not claiming special knowledge or access to better info than anyone else, quite the opposite, it was the total lack on info that my intriguing me. Your NY Times article is the first thing I have read on the subject (and I have been looking!)

The whole thread was predicated on the following as per my opening post

Throughout the early summer, with the build up of the surge and higher rate of casualties from these operations, news from Afghanistan was rarely off the telly and usually as a lead story. Since August, and the floods in Pakistan, Afghanistan has almost vanished from our screens and August casualties are significantly down from the preceding months.

A quick look at a map of Pakistan's roads and the one of the floods clearly show that most of NATO's main supply routes must have been severely affected.
Have the floods therefore caused so much disruption to the NATO supply lines that military operations have ground to a halt?

Your article confirms what I had deduced and it seems as though Route 55 (or a variant based around it) is still open, while Route 5 is completely inundated.

The surprise though is to learn that Route 25; Karachi to Kandahar through Balochistan is under water!! I can only surmise that the high valleys were hit and that the road has been washed away.

As the Captain says supplies are moving but must obviously be "slowed" or to be more frank reduced. Hardly a surprise if only one of three main routes are still operating and (I would guess) even the open one requiring constant attention by Military Engineers to keep emergency bridges and other repairs operational.

Where is the basis of your statement? Source, please? And what do you mean (I honestly don't understand)? Many thanks.

Simply that if 150000 men require x tonnes of supplies per month to be fully operational but only x/? are getting through, what is the most appropriate response;

Keep 150000 poorly supplied troops in theatre and risk the consequences or

Withdraw an appropriate number so that the remainder are able to operate at the optimum; albeit within a reduced sphere?

The planned draw drown makes this easier as any supply related reduction in forces can be sold to the public as part of that plan, when indeed it is nothing of the sort.

 

[webmaster]

Small update from the Army on supply routes to Afghanistan:


Right now, the Army uses two land routes to move material into the country, one from the north through Georgia, over the Caspian Sea, then through Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan. From the South, the Army uses a route through Pakistan, originating from the port city of Karachi. In-country, logisticians depend on overtaxed Army rotary-wing aircraft to move goods to their end users.

Pilferage, transportation among challenges in Afghanistan | Army News at DefenseTalk