Libya - The Guessing Game

[Feanor]

So apparently Rosoboroneksport has signed two contracts with Libya. A couple of years back it was reported that Libya and Russia had reached in principal an agreement to write off Soviet era debts in exchange for arms deals between the two. Any guesses as to what's in the contracts? Here's the Lenta.ru story.

Lenta.ru: Îðóæèå: "Ðîñîáîðîíýêñïîðò" ñîîáùèë î ïîäïèñàíèè äâóõ êîíòðàêòîâ ñ Ëèâèåé

 

[eckherl]

So apparently Rosoboroneksport has signed two contracts with Libya. A couple of years back it was reported that Libya and Russia had reached in principal an agreement to write off Soviet era debts in exchange for arms deals between the two. Any guesses as to what's in the contracts? Here's the Lenta.ru story.

Lenta.ru: Îðóæèå: "Ðîñîáîðîíýêñïîðò" ñîîáùèë î ïîäïèñàíèè äâóõ êîíòðàêòîâ ñ Ëèâèåé

Should be for aircraft and air defense systems.

 

[Feanor]

Rumor is 12 Su-35S.... but KnAAPO is busy putting those out for the VVS, until iirc 2011. So are VVS deliveries going to get put on hold for the Libyan order (if it is real...) or will the Libyans settle for a 2012 delivery?

 

[PhysicsMan]

Rumor is 12 Su-35S.... but KnAAPO is busy putting those out for the VVS, until iirc 2011. So are VVS deliveries going to get put on hold for the Libyan order (if it is real...) or will the Libyans settle for a 2012 delivery?

You think they are maxed out on production with the VVS order? 50 planes for two years, is it?.. What was the plant's capacity in the Soviet times?

 

[Feanor]

Well they are also still modernizing the Su-27SM, current contract has another 12 of those with more likely to follow, and I don't think it's out of orders in terms of other international customers.

 

[fixdeluxe1]

So apparently Rosoboroneksport has signed two contracts with Libya. A couple of years back it was reported that Libya and Russia had reached in principal an agreement to write off Soviet era debts in exchange for arms deals between the two. Any guesses as to what's in the contracts? Here's the Lenta.ru story.

Lenta.ru: Îðóæèå: "Ðîñîáîðîíýêñïîðò" ñîîáùèë î ïîäïèñàíèè äâóõ êîíòðàêòîâ ñ Ëèâèåé

Lybian Military,in terms of ground forces is quite heavily armed(like saudi arabia) but has only a small amount of manpower.They should be concentrating on getting some Attack APC's and MBT's.In terms of Air Power they also should look at purchasing SAM and AA Systems with an intergrated radar system.Also look at purchasing some multi-role fighter-bombers (Su-Mk30) and AWAC's.A few Tupolev Tu-154's and Mi-24 Hinds with missiles,rockets and cannons could also come in useful.In terms of naval power I think Lybia should be looking at russian Submarines and Light attack craft.Russian Sub's would allow Libya to extend it's influence to the mediteranian sea and the addition of more corvettes,frigates and maybe a battleship.

This is what Gadaafi should be looking at if he wants to extend his influence.Also improving relations with China and India.

 

[justone]

So apparently Rosoboroneksport has signed two contracts with Libya. A couple of years back it was reported that Libya and Russia had reached in principal an agreement to write off Soviet era debts in exchange for arms deals between the two. Any guesses as to what's in the contracts? Here's the Lenta.ru story.

Lenta.ru: Îðóæèå: "Ðîñîáîðîíýêñïîðò" ñîîáùèë î ïîäïèñàíèè äâóõ êîíòðàêòîâ ñ Ëèâèåé

Libya need to get a contract with U.S. also . I did read about Russia reaching a agreement to write off Soviet era debts. Libya is a big mess but they did the right by opening up there weapon of mass destruction to the U.S. and paiding the family of the airline killings. Libya should get all the modern equipment they can and fast.

 

[Crunchy]

I thought Lybia was going for French Rafales. Didn't some Rafales made a fly-by during parade in Triplos recently?

 

[Feanor]

I doubt there is much of a market for US equipment. Libya is predominantly Soviet-armed. Systems integration would be an issue. Price tag would be another one. From what I understand the current deals are signed as a way of settling Soviet-era debts. Otherwise I doubt that Libya would be buying very many new fighter jets.

I haven't heard of an actual purchase of Rafales, just rumors and speculations about the possibility.

 

[justone]

I doubt there is much of a market for US equipment. Libya is predominantly Soviet-armed. Systems integration would be an issue. Price tag would be another one. From what I understand the current deals are signed as a way of settling Soviet-era debts. Otherwise I doubt that Libya would be buying very many new fighter jets.

I haven't heard of an actual purchase of Rafales, just rumors and speculations about the possibility.

I disagree with the money issue there lots of oil in Libya. They just need modern equipment to get the oil. After or when they are taken off the terrorist list . Western investors are looking into Libya. There have the money like 5 years from now. After getting back in the real world there see the change. Libya made the best choice when it renouce it intention to make weapons of mass destruction.

 

[Feanor]

Time will tell but for now Libya is negotiating for Russian fighter jets in forgiveness of Soviet-era debts. Or at least that's been the what I've heard.

 

[justone]

Time will tell but for now Libya is negotiating for Russian fighter jets in forgiveness of Soviet-era debts. Or at least that's been the what I've heard.

You're right about the fighters. Commander of the Libya armed forces known they need upgrade there systems in every branch of the armed forces and with the armed embargo about to be lifted or already been lifted. They need the right training so they can use these new system that will be coming. So searching for right country to help them with this must not have alot of conditions attach to it.

 

[STURM]

An aspect that probably has not changed is the lack of trained Libyans to support and mantain new weapon systems. This will be the main obstacle in acquiring Western gear. There was a period when the Libyans relied on huge numbers of East Europeans and Cubans to mantain their stuff. Libya faces the same problem as Saudi Arabia and the Gulf States, the availibility of funds but a trained manpower problem. Unlike Saudi Arabia and the Gulf states, Libya at least has an aircraft overhaul facility of its own, manned by locals.

AFAIK, Saudi Arabia still relies on a lot of Americans and Brits to support their Tornados and F-15's.

 

[Feanor]

And the deal has been inked. No official confirmation exists, however the deal officially includes aircraft, fire-arms, and armored vehicles both modernization of existing fleet and new orders. Unofficially the rumors are 12 Su-35S, 4 Su-30MK, and 6 Yak-130, along with a modernization of ~150 T-72s, and a purchase of 48 T-90S. The total contract is 1.3 billion Eu.

ÀÐÌÑ-ÒÀÑÑ

 

[Feanor]

And the deal has been inked. No official confirmation exists, however the deal officially includes aircraft, fire-arms, and armored vehicles both modernization of existing fleet and new orders. Unofficially the rumors are 12 Su-35S, 4 Su-30MK, and 6 Yak-130, along with a modernization of ~150 T-72s, and a purchase of 48 T-90S. The total contract is 1.3 billion Eu.

ÀÐÌÑ-ÒÀÑÑ

 

[Spetsznaz]

Libya was East and will stay east and feanor aren't you missing the air defense systems? I am pretty sure there were the exchange of SAM's

could be wrong...

 

[Feanor]

I'm not sure. I recall reading something to that extent. I'm hoping we'll get an official confirmation.

EDIT: Well we have official confirmation for the 6 Yak-130s, that they ordered, two to arrive in 2011, 4 in 2012.

http://lenta.ru/news/2010/02/04/irkut/

The plane allegedly costs 15 million in it's base configuration. However the price for Libya, which may include munitions, spare parts, training, etc. is unclear. There is also no figure for the total contract.

EDIT2: And there is confirmation of an upgrade and modernization contract for the AK factory in Libya, though no sum has been named.