China would have a chance like almost any country with a fair amount of modern technology. My thoughts would be:
a) Where would the engagement take place?
b) How many vessels would the Chinese commit?
c) Would it be a sneak attack, a public sortie or an accident?
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a) If the engagement occured at a point where China's newest jets were out of range, then it would be more difficult without air cover. Equally if they had far to travel, they might be discovered long before they reached the carrier group.
b) If the Chinese threw everything they had at the Yanks, then they might overwhelm them by sheer numbers. But if they didn't want to risk the majority of their fleet, then that would make things less certain.
c) If it was public, then China could mobilise all of its assets and launch a combined attack. A submarine-only attack could work, but it would depend on the skill of the captains, the number and class of subs, etc.
Aussie Digger said:
This does not mean however that it is easily done, a fact that should be obvious given that no-one has even come close to damaging a US carrier since WW2. US carriers are extremely well protected by their own aircraft and their supporting platforms.
Well I think that's a bit of a red herring, as the US hasn't really had to take on a high/medium tech navy since WWII. Also we haven't had a proper naval engagement of this type since the Falklands - even that was not a useful example, because anti-missile technology and radar was less sophisticated than it is now. Until we see how modern radar and defence systems can cope with multiple incoming missiles and fighters (even torpedoes) I don't think we can be sure either way. It will basically take a naval engagement of some type between navies with fairly decent technology to see how the equipment performs.
I also wonder what it would be like if a Royal Navy taskforce was engaged, with the new Type 45s instead of the Type 42s - and perhaps even a Queen Elizabeth-class carrier instead of the Invincible-class.