In the event of a US China war...

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whodunit

New Member
How would oil play out in all this?

Out of the top 14 countries that export oil, the ones that are not aligned are Iran, Russia maybe Venezuela however they export a ton to the US currently and I dont see that changing in the event of war.

I think the US with her allies may be able to cut off oil to China almost completely.

Also the US industrial base is far bigger and stronger, which was one of the reasons why Japan lost badly in the pacific war.
 

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
What? Ridiculous. Give us a scenario. What in China is worth enough that the U.S. would go to war over it? How about vice versa? Here's a better one. What happens to Chinese exports if it fights the USA?
 

ROCK45

New Member
Better scenario

China and the United States economies are connected on many levels and both would suffer badly if a shooting war broke out.

Venezuela is a strong Chinese allied and might cut oil deliveries in time to the US. The US doesn't import so much of it's oil for use from Venezuela as some people think but we refine their heavy crude oil in our refineries. It's a two way street they need us and we make money from them for refinery costs. China is building I think a refinery in Venezuela to off set this I believe and one in China as well. Somebody correct me if I'm wrong on the Chinese homeland refinery.

For these two huge economies to come to a shooting war something very big and important would have to happen. I don't know enough about China's economy but couldn't they buy more oil from Russia and other nearby countries if need be? Too much of the worlds economy depends on Chinese goods getting to market so I just don't see this happening. Take about 20 or 30 large countries economies and add them together and China's and the United States economy would be something like 100 times larger in size. Were talking big, big, money and the power to make more.
 

whodunit

New Member
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this forum is slowly turning into a china forum, the post was just hypothetical not real.

The US government has stated in the past that any challenge military wise especially when it comes to the balance of power in the pacific will result in war.

There are apparently detailed plans if and when war with China happens. Not to mention the US has interests in Taiwan as well as reuniting North and South Korea.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2006/05/23/AR2006052301552.html
http://blog.washingtonpost.com/earlywarning/2006/05/americas_new_china_war_plan.html

But whether a war would happen wasn't what i posted about. I'm interested if and when there is a war how will control of oil and resources play out. China is extremely dependent on imports.
 
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ROCK45

New Member
China and oil

whodunit
But whether a war would happen wasn't what i posted about. I'm interested if and when there is a war how will control of oil and resources play out. China is extremely dependent on imports.

whodunit this is your post and you should provide a scenario

this forum is slowly turning into a china forum, the post was just hypothetical not real.
No I'm not Chinese but set it up better.

I read the links you attached and yes they can do some of those things. Most of it is known information for a long time where do you want to go with the information or points the articles are making?

I'm interested if and when there is a war how will control of oil and resources play out.
Care to start it up?
 
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autumn child

New Member
In the event of a war, Oil is the least of our concern. It will likely escalate to nuclear war. But in the beginning of the war US will try to cut off China's oil supply. China needs oil mainly for transportation purposes and manufacturing of products that requires Oil. It import about 50% of the oil it needs. However during war time, personal vehicles and manufacturing of oil intensive product for export purposes will be stoped. China still relies on coal as a source of energy for electricity. Other main power source are nuclear and increasingly renewable energy source.

In time of war, the domestic oil production coupled with the national reserve will be enough for the military. If there is still shortage, China can rely on its developing liquid coal fuel plant that converts coal to gasoline. They are building the world's largest liquid coal plant in inner mongolia.

China can still get oil from the various pipelines that is currently available or still in construction. The oil supply will be mainly from Russia and central asian countries (SCO members). China will also requires less oil in war compared to US. I am also assuming that China will take mainly defensive postures with a few asymetrical offense tactics. The US needs to mobilize massive amount of ships and aircraft to attack china and conduct blockade. Don't even think about using ground forces to invade, the scenario is not possible at all.

As for the manufacturing capability, I don't think China is behind at all. China produce more steel than the US. China can also manufacture other heavy equipments since it is the "factory of the world". For example, China builds more than five subs a year while the US builds one every year. China's infrastructure is also one of the best in the world, they build thousands of kilometres of highways and railroads each year.

The real worries about war with US is the Economy. Both economies are going to suffer verybadly. I am not sure how the US can gather enough money to fund the war with a declining economy and massive debts and deficit. China on the other hand have massive amount of reserve and a vigourous economy. The world economy will suffer greatly when war erupts between major powers. I don't think the world is going to sit on the sideline and let US and China go to war, especially with the increasing multi-polar world.
 

ROCK45

New Member
China

autumn child interesting both sides economies couldn't afford to let something like a full shooting war breakout.

Your sub comment doesn't really show the playing field correctly. You don't state how many subs the USN has and operates. And saying China builds 5 and US 1, per year you make it sound like their on the same level. That's not the case by a long shot.

As for the manufacturing capability, I don't think China is behind at all. China produce more steel than the US.
It's not like we can't produce steel just because China can do at cheaper prices. And the US has a wide range manufacturing capabilities in many advance fields not easily duplicated or copied by others.
 

autumn child

New Member
I have no doubt that the US has the capability to mobilize for war and increase its production of war machines. I am just responding to other members comment about China being behind US interms of production capabilities. I am also aware of the vast amount of subs that the US has in operation. The US nuclear subs are undoubtedly better equipped than their chinese counterparts. I am just trying to point out China's production capability is no where near Japan in WW2 compared to the US. China is capable of manufacturing vast quantities of war machines when needed. Perhaps not yet onpar with some of the high-grade US weaponry but the quality of war machines does not guerantee victory. Wars between the US and China will be large and extremely complex. And to Whodunit, it is not wise to compare imperial Japan to China today. They are very diferrent. There is a good discussion about China's military capability in sinodefence forum. I highly recommend the site if you want to know up to date Chinese military and also afew reference about its economic power.
 

Sampanviking

Banned Member
Maybe I can be of some assistance:D

If you want a US vs China scenario, at least make it realistic. Don't bother looking to the East China Seas as:

a) China's relations with its Regional neighbours are improving considerably all the time and

b) A Naval and Maritime Conflict is playing to America's strengths and not the primary front that the PRC would want.

Instead you need to look at the Oil Rich, largely undeveloped and unstable countries of Central and Southern Asia, where US and PRC forces are in direct contact.

You also need to remember that no such war would be fought in isolation as both NATO and the SCO would be rapidly drawn into the conflict if not actively involved at inception.

Finally, all major ways are really a series of smaller wars that either/or join up or become actively promoted by opposing superpowers, originally as proxies, but then become personally involved in the fighting.

So with that established ..... let us begin.

Instability in Afghanistan spills across the border into Pakistan with Islamist terrorists seemingly very prone to hit vital infrastructure such as the road and rail links from Tibet to Gwader and the construction project of the Iran - Pakistan - China Gas Pipeline.

The turmoil in Afghanistan and Pakistan spreads further, this time into Iran and Turkmenistan. Once again Chinese Oil supplies and Development areas seem disproportionately affected by the terrorists as indeed do many Russian assets held by Gazprom and throws Caspian basin Oil & Gas production into chaos.

The chaos spreads further as Islamists make attacks in Uzbekistan attacking Oil Pipelines and other trade based infrastructure used primarily by China.

Finally the trouble crosses the Chinese border with attacks against China's own Oil and Gas Infrastructure in Xinjiang province and terror attacks against ethnic Hans in predominantly Uighur areas.

China frequently accuses the US in Afghanistan of stirring up and maybe supporting the trouble, accusations that the US strenuously deny and challenge the Chinese to provide evidence of such claims.

Against this background China and Russia start moving very large military formations into the adversely affected SCO territories and start calling up reservists. simultaneously recruiting levels are raised and Military Service heavily promoted through he media.

Suddenly China stuns the world by producing both Live and Dead US military personnel which China describes as US Special Forces, caught in Xinjiang province itself delivering a shipment of old Eastern Block Weaponry and Explosives bound for Uighur terrorist groups.

China denounces the US as a State Sponsor of Terrorism and recalls its Ambassador permanently to Beijing as indeed do all other SCO nations and Pakistan. All nations then sever Diplomatic relations with the US. Large Chinese forces then move into Pakistan ans through to Iran to take up Strategic positions on local forces on both Afghan and Iraqi borders. Russian forces also deploy with Uzbek and Turkomen forces on their respective external borders.

Chinese forces then enter Afghanistan in strength from China, Uzbekistan, Pakistan and Iran................
 

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
That would put Islamic extremists and the USA on the same team. Doesn't seem even remotely possible.
 

ROCK45

New Member
China

It's interesting but I think you give China way too much capabilities to move forces across such wide areas.

Maybe some like China deploying more forces to Sudan and other African countries. Chinese forces come under attack and get drag into the regional fighting. While defending and fighting along side Sudan forces, forces from Chad are killed by Chinese personnel and now China's forces begin to be directly attacked. China protects their allied and oil interests and US forces and/or NATO allies come to Chad's defenses and the two sides get into some kind of small scale shooting war. If China Navy could put enough ships and other assets into Sudan blocking the Rea Sea would raise the tensions a bit in that area. Doesn't China have oil interests in Nigeria too, a combined Chinese African forces once Chad falls could cut Africa in half? Just throwing some ideas out there.
 

SABRE

Super Moderator
Verified Defense Pro
I gave more than 24 hours and still no realistic scenario by [FONT=verdana,arial,helvetica]whodunit[/FONT], who started this topic (Topic holds relevance when the topic starter himself provides scenario - since he is the one inquiring for information/input). Therefore, I am locking it. If anyone thinks thread should be re-opened than contact Webmaster.
 
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