The issue of Iranian nuclear weapons is a hot-button topic of late. The pundits have proclaimed - with their usual certainty - that there is no military option for the United States. I disagree - I think there is, we just have to have a military response appropriate to the situation.
First, we have to recognize that the Bismarckian world of realpolitik has returned. This whole democratization was a nice idea but doesn't work if we're the only ones doing it. The Europeans, Chinese, Brazilians, et. al. are doing the realpolitik thing. Fine. In a world of realpolitik, the USA can do VERY well if we want to.
We have get back to the strength of the US military - smashing other militaries - and away from this silly 'nation building' thing. This is how we do it:
1. Proclaim that Iranian nuclear weapons are intolerable. Do not get into an argument about where we have them so why can't Iran? We don't like Iran, we're stronger than they are, so we are going to disallow this because we can. End of story.
2. DOW Iran. Do not build a coalition - if the Brits want to come they can -, or talk about democratization or regime change. Use the UN veto as needed to forestall international action. Let the rioters burn down Paris - Europe is utterly irrelevant these days.
3. The only reason anyone cares about Iran is oil. Other than that, its just another 'i-stan' without the warm fuzzies. US strategy is about the oil.
4. The vast majority of Iran's oil is along the coast of the Persian Gulf. Bad for them, good for us. The opening stages of the war are like Desert Storm; mass air attacks ranging all across Iran to blow up its air force, sink its navy, etc. Marine and air assualt take the oil fields. No attempt is made (beyond a buffer zone) to move inland past the fields.
5. The Marine/air assualt bridegheads are reinforced by regular army. No attempt to expand them. Let that nutty Iranian president proclaim jihad - it really doesn't matter what he does.
6. Expel all Iranian civilians in the bridgeheads to unoccupied Iran. Bring in non-islamic engineers to repair the production facilities, and start the oil flowing. Keep most of it for us, sell some real cheap to China (the Other Country that Matters), and maybe the UK. Sell some at market prices to other countries.
7. With China bought, international opposition may increase, but no one will actually get into a shooting war with us. Let them expel us from NATO, kick us out of the UN, etc. It doesn't matter. With the Other Country That Matters quiet, it's all just background noise. So what if Chirac's approval rating goes up 4%. Doesn't change the fact that France (and the EU) are on an economic and demographic deathspiral.
8. Announce that until Iran complies with our (ridiculously unnacceptable) demands, that we will maintain possession of the oil fields. If the Iranian Army is stupid enough to try and fight, smash them (our army excels at that). Yeah, it's static defense, but so what? We're that much better than them and have lots of naval support.
9. Let the Iranian president, government, and people rant all they want. They can do nothing. Use air strikes to smash Iran's nuke facilities; it doesn't really matter if we get them; they don't have bombs, and no one is going to help them.
10. Smash direct Iranian attempts against either Afghanistan or Iraq. Withdraw into fortified enclaves in Iraq if Sadr's people make trouble. Make vague promises (which we have no intention of keeping) to the Iraqi shiites about reparations after this whole very unfortunate business is over. Get the Sunnis on our side by promising revenge against the shiites. Promise the Kurds a slice of northern Iran - deliver on that one.
11. Don't leave. Prep to stay for years. With no native population, there's no insurgency. The Iranian President will be shown to be an utterly impotent blowhard. Loudly broadcast the Iranian oil money going to us, and not the Iranian population. Let events in non-occupied Iran go as they will; make no attempt to establish a friendly Iranian government.
12. Make a massive domestic investment in alternative fuels - especially fusion and hydrogen tech. The only solution to the mideast is to leave - and we can't do that until the oil problem is solved.
Eu2dude.
First, we have to recognize that the Bismarckian world of realpolitik has returned. This whole democratization was a nice idea but doesn't work if we're the only ones doing it. The Europeans, Chinese, Brazilians, et. al. are doing the realpolitik thing. Fine. In a world of realpolitik, the USA can do VERY well if we want to.
We have get back to the strength of the US military - smashing other militaries - and away from this silly 'nation building' thing. This is how we do it:
1. Proclaim that Iranian nuclear weapons are intolerable. Do not get into an argument about where we have them so why can't Iran? We don't like Iran, we're stronger than they are, so we are going to disallow this because we can. End of story.
2. DOW Iran. Do not build a coalition - if the Brits want to come they can -, or talk about democratization or regime change. Use the UN veto as needed to forestall international action. Let the rioters burn down Paris - Europe is utterly irrelevant these days.
3. The only reason anyone cares about Iran is oil. Other than that, its just another 'i-stan' without the warm fuzzies. US strategy is about the oil.
4. The vast majority of Iran's oil is along the coast of the Persian Gulf. Bad for them, good for us. The opening stages of the war are like Desert Storm; mass air attacks ranging all across Iran to blow up its air force, sink its navy, etc. Marine and air assualt take the oil fields. No attempt is made (beyond a buffer zone) to move inland past the fields.
5. The Marine/air assualt bridegheads are reinforced by regular army. No attempt to expand them. Let that nutty Iranian president proclaim jihad - it really doesn't matter what he does.
6. Expel all Iranian civilians in the bridgeheads to unoccupied Iran. Bring in non-islamic engineers to repair the production facilities, and start the oil flowing. Keep most of it for us, sell some real cheap to China (the Other Country that Matters), and maybe the UK. Sell some at market prices to other countries.
7. With China bought, international opposition may increase, but no one will actually get into a shooting war with us. Let them expel us from NATO, kick us out of the UN, etc. It doesn't matter. With the Other Country That Matters quiet, it's all just background noise. So what if Chirac's approval rating goes up 4%. Doesn't change the fact that France (and the EU) are on an economic and demographic deathspiral.
8. Announce that until Iran complies with our (ridiculously unnacceptable) demands, that we will maintain possession of the oil fields. If the Iranian Army is stupid enough to try and fight, smash them (our army excels at that). Yeah, it's static defense, but so what? We're that much better than them and have lots of naval support.
9. Let the Iranian president, government, and people rant all they want. They can do nothing. Use air strikes to smash Iran's nuke facilities; it doesn't really matter if we get them; they don't have bombs, and no one is going to help them.
10. Smash direct Iranian attempts against either Afghanistan or Iraq. Withdraw into fortified enclaves in Iraq if Sadr's people make trouble. Make vague promises (which we have no intention of keeping) to the Iraqi shiites about reparations after this whole very unfortunate business is over. Get the Sunnis on our side by promising revenge against the shiites. Promise the Kurds a slice of northern Iran - deliver on that one.
11. Don't leave. Prep to stay for years. With no native population, there's no insurgency. The Iranian President will be shown to be an utterly impotent blowhard. Loudly broadcast the Iranian oil money going to us, and not the Iranian population. Let events in non-occupied Iran go as they will; make no attempt to establish a friendly Iranian government.
12. Make a massive domestic investment in alternative fuels - especially fusion and hydrogen tech. The only solution to the mideast is to leave - and we can't do that until the oil problem is solved.
Eu2dude.
