Future Conflicts

[CodE]

I'm a fan of techno-thillers, and military novels, and sometimes I'm incredibly intrigued by a war or conflict in a book. Does anyone have an interesting scenario to share? They don't have to be realistic but it does seem better if it could actually happen. Israel vs. Iran? India vs. Pakistan? China vs. Taiwan (with U.S. assistance?)? Russia vs. Eastern European countries?

What conflicts do you think would be interesting or could happen in the future?
Let's hear it...
Cheers,


CodE

 

[CodE]

One conflict that I always thought would be interesting if it was fought today or in the near future, was France and the UK. Both have strong militaries and are close to each other which would warrent some intense fighting. It's incredibly improbable at best but it could be interesting to argue a winner. Any thoughts on the outcome of a war between the France and UK would be?

 

[vikas kanitkar]

I will go for INDIA V/S. CHINA.
Because both the countries have the ambitions for superpower and both are developing countries. Borders issues are still pending from both the country. and India is big hurdle for china to become regional superpower in asia. And china is giving support to pakistan.
The next big war after WWII will be INDIA V/S. CHINA.
I hope all country should progress peacefully.
Please pray to god.

 

[Snayke]

Unless Sino-Indian relations somehow deteriorate for some unseen reason, there is no definate war between India and China. State relations ensure an easy going relation between the two nations and there have been no conflicts since the 1960s (IIRC). Pakistan have both American and Chinese weaponry, but I don't see any scenario where India is going to war with the US.

As for my scenario, I actually don't forsee any plausible big military clashes. The world has come a long way in terms of maintaining order. All the major military powers of the world have stable governments with no sight of any ultra-radicals seizing power. *shrugs* I just can't see from this point in time any major war occurring. Not even China and Taiwan.

 

[falcon2k7]

And India and Russian kinda sorta get along too, which is a concern to China. I won't go as far as to place India and Russia as hard core Allies, but certainly friendly. Asia is going to be interesting in this century.

 

[CodE]

I just can't see from this point in time any major war occurring.

Are there any unrealistic conflicts that you think would be interesting to discuss? I would agree with you both in that a Sino-Indian War is nearly impossible, and that any major military conflict is years away.

 

[CodE]

What about a war between Russia and the Ukraine or Poland? They are gaining independance and are building their militaries and could have strong ties to NATO and the U.S. They could be the homes of American missile sites. All of these things threaten Russia and their struggling military. I don't think that this is likely whatsoever but it is an interesting scenario to think about.

 

[radiosilence]

India and China two-way trade is growing rapidly and is expected to touch 20 billion in 2006. China will become India largest trading partner within the next 2 years if current trends continue. IMO, war is not on the cards for these two countries. The border conflict will remain less important(except for a few nationalist statements every now and then) as these countries aim to further their growth.

 

[CodE]

Extremely true. China and India will most likely never go to war, not only that it would most likely result in WWIII.

 

[f-22fan12]

China, Taiwan and the U.S. For Sure. Taiwan will declare formal independace and China will attack. The U.S. will interfere to protect Taiwan.

 

[CodE]

China, Taiwan and the U.S. For Sure. Taiwan will declare formal independace and China will attack. The U.S. will interfere to protect Taiwan.

You really think that's probable? I think that would make an interesting situation but the likely hood is incredibly improbable.

 

[f-22fan12]

You really think that's probable? I think that would make an interesting situation but the likely hood is incredibly improbable.

I think it is not THAT proboble but proboble enough. China is developing weapons. ( DF-31A ICBM, Jin Class SSBN) Their purpose is to keep us from interfering too much. But when you consider it all, This would only occur if Taiwan DID something. China would NEVER attack on its own.

 

[CodE]

Okay I guess that's fair. Although I think the whole situation is mostly fueled my pop culture and is not likely at all in reality. China's political reforms will probbaly soon see the recognition of Taiwan as independant from mainland China, and the economic reforms of the 90's ensures that no matter what China will remain a strong power. Not only that but the U.S. support that would be given to Taiwan could lead to an all out war with you United States, something China isn't power enough to deal with. China's military although massive isn't the best equiped force in the world, and most certainly has not proved itself in modern times. So I think that it is very unlikely that this conflict will ever come to pass. Do you have any hard facts to prove your position?

 

[nero]

another Iran-IRAQ war ???

.

what about another iran-iraq conflict, with the u.s as a guiding force ??

the U.S will not go for a direct confrontation with iran, but may well use iraq as a launching pad.

that way, the world will be spared , but the mission of destroying iran will be sucessful.

iraqi territory may well be used in any future conflict with iran

.

 

[nero]

I think it is not THAT proboble but proboble enough. China is developing weapons. ( DF-31A ICBM, Jin Class SSBN) Their purpose is to keep us from interfering too much. But when you consider it all, This would only occur if Taiwan DID something. China would NEVER attack on its own.

.
how can u be so sure that CHINA would not attack on it's own ???

the whole point of the chinese arms build up is to annex taiwan.

China may very well strike the first blow !!

.

 

[metro]

-I really don't see a China/Taiwan military conflict. IMO, there's a lot of theatre and not much reality going on in that situation.
It just doesn't make cents economically for China. Taiwan (I guess one could say, "as a broker") brings far too much money into China, especially by way of the US, for China to act against its own interest. Taking the chance of a military conflict with the US is one large gamble (e.g. perhaps, in the end we don't defend Taiwan for "some" reason). Losing trade with the US-- probably Canada, and much of the West as well-- isn't a gamble, it's economic suicide.

There are plenty of other nations more than willing to take up as much of that action as possible (i.e. business China has lost). The world would move on, leaving China behind. In terms of oil, it might even lower the price as the distribution would go to other countries, while a single, major consumer/bidder would no longer be manufacturing for the world. China would thus have to factor in, buying oil for Her population without "an economy," and no more influence over the oil market.

Creating the appearance of a "conflict," makes it easier to justify to a population (anywhere in the world) why or where a gov't is spending its money. The perception of a problem creates a market for a solution to be capitalized upon. The better a "problem" is marketed, the greater the potential is to earn returns.

This being said, IMO, there are other conflicts in the future that are awaiting in S.E.A.

As for China and India becoming very close, Russia won't be happy nor will the US (I'm guessing several other countries would hold similar sentiments).

-As for a "techno-thriller/military-political/conflict, which ranks anywhere on a scale of 1-10, depending on who's being asked (but this has been seriously proposed as a solution).
Many around the world and within the US want "Gitmo" closed. The problem, other than High Valued "Detainees" being there, is that popular support around the world for releasing the "Detainees" to their home country, doesn't translate to any of those Govt's actually wanting the people "coming home."
Even though there's a lot of pressure from abroad and maybe as much within the US to close "gitmo" and to put those being held there, on trial in the US and/or in Prison in the US, nobody living here seems to want any of the "detainees" in a Prison near
them.

A proposal going around is to close "gitmo" (Bush has said he's now looking to do this) in Cuba and move everything (court/prison) to somewhere around the western boarder Alaska. I hope the rest of the world doesn't have the same reaction as the initial response to the suggestion that the ACLU provided... at least the ACLU is unarmed (I think...).

Start the book there...

 

[kjake]

China, Taiwan and the U.S. For Sure. Taiwan will declare formal independace and China will attack. The U.S. will interfere to protect Taiwan.

I think that China is unlikely to attack Taiwan , China is to dependant on trade with the west to risk a conflict with a state that is such a close friend of the US. The effects of a trade embargo by the West would have a devastating effect on the chienese economy and could lead to very serious internal unrest in that country

 

[CodE]

.
how can u be so sure that CHINA would not attack on it's own ???

the whole point of the chinese arms build up is to annex taiwan.

China may very well strike the first blow !!

.

Why would China attack Taiwan in the first place? And if China wanted to strike the first blow, would they not have done this by now!?!

 

[f-22fan12]

.
how can u be so sure that CHINA would not attack on it's own ???

the whole point of the chinese arms build up is to annex taiwan.

China may very well strike the first blow !!

.

If the Chinese struck without reason, The U.S. and MANY other countries would fight on behalf of Taiwan. China would face numerous economic and weapons embargoes from many countries. The U.S. used Saddam's invasion of Kuwaitt to destroy the armed forces of Iraq. Many countries participated in the Gulf War. Just Imagine what would happen to China if the attacked Taiwan.

 

[Snayke]

China already experiences weapons embargoes from USA and the EU. Anyone else other than Russia who tries to sell them weapons gets pressured not to.

But in reality, China has no need to invade Taiwan. They'd prefer the status quo than an economic and military crippling.