CIA - Pakistan might use nuclear weapons against India

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srirangan

Banned Member
Pakistan might use nuclear weapons against India: CIA report

Washington, Jan 16 (UNI) Pakistan, under plausible scenarios, might use nuclear weapons to counter success by the larger Indian conventional forces, particularly given Islamabad's lack of strategic depth, a CIA think tank has said.

However, in its 114-page report titled ''Mapping the Global Future'', the National Intelligence Council (NIC), the US Intelligence Community's centre for mid-term and long-term strategic thinking, said both India and Pakistan appear to understand the likely prices to be paid by triggering a conflict.

''But nationalistic feelings run high and are not likely to abate. Under plausible scenarios, Pakistan might use nuclear weapons to counter success by the larger Indian conventional forces, particularly given Islambad's lack of strategic depth,'' the CIA report said.

''Advances in modern weaponry longer ranges, precision delivery, and more destructive conventional munitions create circumstances encouraging the pre-emptive use of military force,'' it added.

The increased range of new missile and aircraft delivery systems provides sanctuary to their possessors.

Should a conflict occur that involved one or more of the great powers, the consequences would be significant, the NIC said.

The report is the third unclassified document prepared by the NIC, a CIA think tank, in the past seven years that takes a long-term view of the future.

It also said that the United States will continue to be called on to help manage conflicts such as Kashmir, Palestine, North Korea and Taiwan to ensure they do not get out of hand if a peace settlement cannot be reached.

Experts assess that the majority of international terrorist groups will continue to identify with radical Islam. The revival of Muslim identity will create a framework for the spread of radical Islamic ideology both inside and outside the Middle East, Western Europe, Southeast Asia and Central Asia, it said.

This revival has been accompanied by a deepening solidarity among Muslims caught up in national or regional separatist struggles, such as Kashmir, Palestine, Chechnya, Iraq, Mindanao, or southern Thailand and has emerged in response to government repression, corruption, and ineffectiveness, it added.
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Hmm not good. I hope CIA is wrong. Would anyone wanna nuke a country that can nuke it back?
 

TRK

New Member
This is the only weapon with which Pakistan can create damage or can compete to India in defense. Other than that Pakistan doesn't have any other weapon that cannot be countered by the Indians.

Hence CIA seems to be right. Cause that is the only useful option Pakistan has for its defence.

Moreover i guess Pakistan might go for that option. Although their are some people having a greater foresight. People who can understand the consequence of it. They might not opt for this option.
 

ravi_n_naik

New Member
It seems clear that to counter india's much superior conventional forces pakistan would use nuclear weapons. Because of the militaristic nature of the pakistani government India can never be safe from nuclear weapons for a long time to come.

thus, the only thing india can do is to invest heavily in anti-ballistic missile aquisition and development to reduce the threat.
 

P.A.F

New Member
It depends on the payload of the nuke. pakistan could use nukes with little payload to counter and ground forces or even bases. i'm sure they wouldn't use a nuke with full payload.
 

ajay_ijn

New Member
Another CIA report.
Political turmoil to rock Pakistan: CIA

http://www.dawn.com/2005/01/16/top10.htm

WASHINGTON, Jan 15: Pakistan will continue to be buffeted by political turmoil and sporadic violence, and the military will continue to be involved in Pakistan's politics, says a CIA report.

The National Intelligence Council, an in-house CIA think-tank, predicts that "a rise in religious fundamentalism in its ranks," will also pose a challenge for the Pakistan Army.

The 120-page report, titled "Mapping the Global Future," aims at preparing the US administration for future challenges by tracing key trends that may influence world events. It is presented to the US president, members of Congress, cabinet members and key officials involved in policymaking.

Discussing the nuclear ambitions of India and Pakistan, the report observes that "despite the lack of a clear military doctrine in either India or Pakistan, the nuclear rivalry between the two countries has settled into an uneasy deterrence".

The CIA report points out that globally, India still "registers only in the context of blocking nuclear disarmament initiatives, grappling with Kashmir, or contending with Pakistan," which frustrates the Indian leadership.

"Because of the nuclear arsenal of China and the nuclear potential of Pakistan," the report says, India will continue its commitment to its nuclear programme.


If this happens then what about Nuclear Weapons Security.

For the Complete CIA report on Mapping Global Future ,download this PDF file
http://www.foia.cia.gov/2020/2020.pdf

CIA also says Iraq war will breed new generation of professional terrorists.
http://www.guardian.co.uk/Iraq/Story/0,2763,1391072,00.html
 

ajay_ijn

New Member
"No chance!!! Not at all!!!!"
Yes
If India starts the Conflict then pakistan is unlikely to survive and even if pakistan starts the conflict,India's Second Strike capability will make sure that pakistan will not survive.
 

The Watcher

New Member
if pakistans existence is threatened by imperialist nature of indian state, pakistan would have no choice but to use nuclear weapons and use them so that in words of AQ Khan, india will become indian ocean.

keep in mind that it was india that introduced nuclear/WMD weapons in south asia so it shouldn't be surprised if it has to live under that shadow for long time to come. i think every country in south asia should have nuclear weapons to protect it self from unwanted invaders.
 

Red aRRow

Forum Bouncer
Wait a minute...wasn't it the CIA which was hollering about the "imminent threat" posed by "Iraq's WMDs" ??

These are just plausible scenarios. There are many plausible scenarios where the world might end and more plausible scenarios in which hell might freeze over.

It'll be a while till I start believing CIA's horse crap considering their past record.
 

adsH

New Member
This is the NIC they don't have a political agenda the CIA may of had a questionable Agenda but NIC is still highly regarded, the Nuke threat from Iraq was Intelligence not brain storming.

Pakistan has reportedly got Plutonium warheads so its even more troubling since these warheads are newer in generation and are compact so they may have Higher MTon Destruction.

the US in the Cold war Ages had the internet (military Technology) fully deployed in a mesh configuration covering every part of the Nation in the Usual messy web, each site could communicate with the other site regardless of which part was taken out (as X routes remained) by a soviet Nuke. India's communication system would go down, followed by its ability to react, the chances are that the Indians would have a counter to such a problem. But to provoke Pakistan to the extent of suicide is not recommended, and I think the Indian Military leaders have traditionally (BAR the New ACM of IAF) been quiet on Pakistan receiving arms, since the Threshold for nukes do go down as the conventional capability comes closer. The Politicians are too damn ignorant they do not understand what their blind ignorant patriotism would get them into. That’s why I believe the Military should take up the matter of defense not a layman defense Minister .
 

mysterious

New Member
I dont know why we keep discussing this nuke attack scenario again and again (ending up repeating what has already been said a thousand times) in different threads?!?! Is it some kind of a 'fetish' some people have in here for discussing this topic which could very well soon enough turn dirty? So, having said that, I hope to keep this post of mine, my only participation in this thread.
 

aaaditya

New Member
nuke attack on india will definitely result in retaliation by india and iam sure pakistan will become pakistan will also go to the bottom of the arabian sea.(remember this watcher).
 

gf0012-aust

Grumpy Old Man
Staff member
Verified Defense Pro
I assume everyone is aware of the concept of Mutually Assured Destruction. On that basis, both sides will use nukes.

I'm closing this topic as it's going to go in circles.
 
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