Australian industry local & abroad

[vonnoobie]

Place to discuss Australian industry outside of the defence threads that oh so often will take them off topic.

Two recent bits of news I have seen over the weekend.

TT-Line which originally was to build two new ships first in Germany then in Finland has now cancelled that contract and stated that the work will be undertaken in Australia. No mention on what is being offered though is assumed to be steel ships and incat and Austal are both going for the work with incat planning to do full build in Australia while Austal wants to build hulls in Phillipines and do fit out in Australia.
https://www.spiritoftasmania.com.au/company-information/media/media-releases/vesvessel-replacement-update

What I find interesting is the board recommended against this but state ignored it. Much as I would love to see such happen we don't exactly have experience with ship building to this scale. Can understand Austal building hull abroad they don't have local facilities for ships this big while incat doesn't exactly have experience with steel.

Austal is making another investment into their mobile US shipyard acquiring land, facilities and a 22,000 ton docking facility across from current site with plans to diversify into steel shipbuilding and maintenance.
Deal in works for Austal to purchase additional land, facilities

 

[ASSAIL]

The crazy maritime news of the week is Transdev’s purchase of 10 river cats for Sydney ferries built in Indonesia!
We have some of the best ferry builders worldwide here in Oz and a government ignores their capacity? Crazy stuff.
Never mind the mindless bs about them not fitting under the Parramatta river bridges. Government defends new Sydney ferries despite height issue

 

[DDG38]

The crazy maritime news of the week is Transdev’s purchase of 10 river cats for Sydney ferries built in Indonesia!
We have some of the best ferry builders worldwide here in Oz and a government ignores their capacity? Crazy stuff.
Never mind the mindless bs about them not fitting under the Parramatta river bridges. Government defends new Sydney ferries despite height issue

Ferry by committee. A committee only worried about cost saving. Collective shrug from the state government and a "currently operational ferries are already telling people to duck when they go under the bridge" response. Nothing to see here. /sarcasm

 

[vonnoobie]

Interesting year 2020 for Oz industry. Got H2X choosing a site both for vehicle production https://www.whichcar.com.au/car-news/h2xh2x-launches-in-australia in Port Kembla but also several companies already confirming hydrogen facilities to be built in the east and west. We were never going to be self sufficient in oil however if we can shift from oil to hydrogen which can power anything be it on land sea or air then we can going forward not only supply our own needs but be a net exporter. On one hand great for our economy as fuel prices will depend less on global issues being home sourced on the other for national security it is a game changer. Most everything if needed could be made in Australia except oil, with hydrogen that short fall can disappear giving us a lot more options going into any conflict.

 

[vonnoobie]

Australia signs deal with Germany for potential future hydrogen exports

Australia and Germany have signed an agreement on a joint feasibility study for the supply chain of hydrogen being shifted abroad.

 

[John Fedup]

Hydrogen has one big drawback, production. I don’t see a solution other than electrolysis of water with electricity which at present isn’t economical.

 

[vonnoobie]

Hydrogen has one big drawback, production. I don’t see a solution other than electrolysis of water with electricity which at present isn’t economical.

At present no but going forward with falling costs of both the electrolizers and renewable energy + increased efficiency it is expected by 2030 hydrogen prices will be on par with that of oil if not cheaper. When all comes down to it it is a matter of scale, just like in military procurement the more you acquire something over a time period the cheaper it gets. Used to be renewable was a nice to have but cost too much and that was a decade ago, now it is cheaper with new projects then gas, coal and nuclear all because of building more increasing learning curve and driving costs down. Hydrogen won't be any different. My suggestion if you can buy into a company starting it now do so because hydrogen will be the future oil power.

 

[John Fedup]

IMHO the only way hydrogen will be cheaper than oil/gas by 2030 is if electricity is being produced by fusion reactors which in fact would eliminate the need for hydrogen itself as a fuel except possibly for aviation.

 

[ngatimozart]

IMHO the only way hydrogen will be cheaper than oil/gas by 2030 is if electricity is being produced by fusion reactors which in fact would eliminate the need for hydrogen itself as a fuel except possibly for aviation.

We'll just have to get the dilithium crystals for the flux capacitor to initiate the warp drive.

Interestingly enough the skunk works ave been working on fusion reactors for quite a while. I read an article in one of the aviation mags a couple of weeks ago, but can't remember which one now. Will have a look over the weekend to see if I've kept a copy of the article. I've always been taught that it requires immense pressure (lb/ sq in x10^8 )and extremely high temperatures (°C x10^7) to create the conditions for fusion, but it appears that they may have made some advances with the magnetic containment. Interesting times indeed.

 

[vonnoobie]

IMHO the only way hydrogen will be cheaper than oil/gas by 2030 is if electricity is being produced by fusion reactors which in fact would eliminate the need for hydrogen itself as a fuel except possibly for aviation.

Not quite. National Hydrogen Roadmap
CSIRO released a roadmap that also gives a breakdown not only on cost comparison for different sectors but also estimated future hydrogen costs at production. Or: hydroycan be competitive with fuel at $8 a kg. For a rough guide Toyota released a hydrogen FCV back in 2014 that had a range of 66 MPG with one gallon comparable to a kg of hydrogen.

Hydrogen replacing electricity production yep long time off but become a fuel source for transportation it's actually a lot closer then you realise.

 

[ngatimozart]

66 mi/kg @ $8.00/kg that's cheap, real cheap. Now watch government's tax the hell out of it with Road Users Charges, fuel tax, excise tax and GST on the lot. Over here we pay tax on the tax when it comes to fuels.

 

[vonnoobie]

When you also consider that going forward with scale the expect a production cost of around $2.50 a kg lot of money to be made in it and for government lot of taxes. Plus side in military conflict by its very nature it can be spread out around all of Australia rather then centrilized in a key production location, makes it a lot harder for an adversary to knock out supply out.

 

[John Fedup]

We'll just have to get the dilithium crystals for the flux capacitor to initiate the warp drive.

Interestingly enough the skunk works ave been working on fusion reactors for quite a while. I read an article in one of the aviation mags a couple of weeks ago, but can't remember which one now. Will have a look over the weekend to see if I've kept a copy of the article. I've always been taught that it requires immense pressure (lb/ sq in x10^8 )and extremely high temperatures (°C x10^7) to create the conditions for fusion, but it appears that they may have made some advances with the magnetic containment. Interesting times indeed.

Some information was posted in the compact fusion reactor thread under Space Technology. I guess the major advance hasn’t quite happened yet.

 

[John Fedup]

Not quite. National Hydrogen Roadmap
CSIRO released a roadmap that also gives a breakdown not only on cost comparison for different sectors but also estimated future hydrogen costs at production. Or: hydroycan be competitive with fuel at $8 a kg. For a rough guide Toyota released a hydrogen FCV back in 2014 that had a range of 66 MPG with one gallon comparable to a kg of hydrogen.

Hydrogen replacing electricity production yep long time off but become a fuel source for transportation it's actually a lot closer then you realise.

Had a quick glance at the paper. Australian NG prices do seem to be significantly higher than in North America so a hydrogen solution is attractive considering Australia’s solar and wind power potential. However, even with emerging improvements in electrolysis stacks, I still think the production costs will be a struggle but perhaps the security and environmental advantages will negate the extra cost. Haven’t read the storage and transport section yet so can’t comment on the export idea yet.

 

[vonnoobie]

Had a quick glance at the paper. Australian NG prices do seem to be significantly higher than in North America so a hydrogen solution is attractive considering Australia’s solar and wind power potential. However, even with emerging improvements in electrolysis stacks, I still think the production costs will be a struggle but perhaps the security and environmental advantages will negate the extra cost. Haven’t read the storage and transport section yet so can’t comment on the export idea yet.

Not as much as people may think though did state it will be a ways off earlier. We have started to get renewable projects selling electricity for under $50MWh AUD with some predicting prices below $30MWh going forward. One ton of hydrogen is roughly 39MW of power. Most modern electrolizers operate around 80% efficiency meaning 50MW to make a ton of hydrogen. Outside of capital and O&S expenditure their are no other costs. Electrolizers are also around $1000 AUD per 1kw capacity based on current projects being launched here. With average O&S costs for an electrolizers from what I have read being 2.5 - 5% of capital expenditure we theoretically at our new projects should be able to achieve a $2.72 production cost per a kg. Only going to get cheaper going forward.

Biggest factor is just how much government will support it. Europe is putting 250 billion+ euros to theirs, CoA throwing a couple hundred million won't attract much. Might need to look at doubling the clean energy fund with $10 billion to co-invest/loan for Oz projects in hydrogen.

 

[John Fedup]

Not as much as people may think though did state it will be a ways off earlier. We have started to get renewable projects selling electricity for under $50MWh AUD with some predicting prices below $30MWh going forward. One ton of hydrogen is roughly 39MW of power. Most modern electrolizers operate around 80% efficiency meaning 50MW to make a ton of hydrogen. Outside of capital and O&S expenditure their are no other costs. Electrolizers are also around $1000 AUD per 1kw capacity based on current projects being launched here. With average O&S costs for an electrolizers from what I have read being 2.5 - 5% of capital expenditure we theoretically at our new projects should be able to achieve a $2.72 production cost per a kg. Only going to get cheaper going forward.

Biggest factor is just how much government will support it. Europe is putting 250 billion+ euros to theirs, CoA throwing a couple hundred million won't attract much. Might need to look at doubling the clean energy fund with $10 billion to co-invest/loan for Oz projects in hydrogen.

The numbers are interesting. I wish I could compare our numbers but it is hard to do based on OPG numbers. Our residential rate is $128.00/MW hour but they claim the generation cost is 20% of that number or $25.60/MW hour. However, nuclear cost is about $50-60/MW hour which accounts for 60% versus 24% for hydro and other sources make up the total to 100% so I wonder about their 20% claim. In Quebec, the rate is $73.00/MW hour. If the production cost is also 20% Of the residential rate then that equates to $14.60/MW hour. Most of their power is hydro from James Bay so their transmission costs are higher. Bottom line is unlike the southern US or Australia, solar potential for Canada isn’t anywhere near as good on a 12 month basis.

What are gas/diesel prices in OZ, here they are 99/95 cents per litre (1.00 CAD= 0.75 US)? My RAV4 hydrid uses 6.7 litres per 100 km in the city. Most of the cost is government tax (fuel tax, federal, provincial and VAT (GST or HST depending on province). Can hardly wait to see what a hydrogen tax will be and the likely insurance surcharge for the explosion risk.

 

[John Fedup]

I have muddled through most of the hydrogen roadmap and I have to agree it seems workable even if the cost estimates are overly optimistic given the recent consequences of climate warming ( massive glacier break offs, worldwide extreme fires). Even regions lacking the renewable energy generation advantages that Australia has will have to move to hydrogen at some point. Also, road transportation is a huge consumer and refuelling a hydrogen storage setup is much faster than recharging a Li-ion battery.