I saw an article earlier about Japan being annoyed with the UK wrt the slow funding rate on GCAP. Clearly the UK has money problems given the slow pace of other defence projects and the current government not really planning any reductions in social spending. This might lead Japan to consider German entry where the UK might have to yield some production to Germany. At the very least, a pressure tactic for Japan to get the UK to get serious.
Significant UK funding for GCAP is about to announced imminently as part of the multi-year procurement plan.
As I said, things have progressed way beyond having the usual rounds of talks and negotiations. The time for Germany to join GCAP as a partner was 12-18 months ago. The usual process of having talks, going home to consult with domestic business and politicians, have another round of talks, more consultation, more talks, that's all gone.
If Germany wants into GCAP it must say so
now. No "we'll think about it if the terms are generous". Money on the table ready to go, sign a contract in 30 days sort of thing.
Japan is talking about increasing defence spending beyond 2% of GDP, looking at the
3% and 3.5% levels being eyed up by other countries. They aren't desperate for people bringing money in, they want GCAP to go ahead at top speed. Germany cannot do anything to speed things up, they can only slow it down - unless they put all their cards on the table right now.
This is why early access to GCAP exports makes more sense than negotiating partner status. Talking about partner status keeps ignoring Japan's priorities. Japan is in the driving seat. All Italy and the UK can do is defer their own deliveries and allow Japan to get the bulk of the early production, they cannot force a delay.
