IANS,
Washington: The White House has hailed a new US intelligence report that, reversing its own claims, says Iran ceased its nuclear weapons programme in 2003 and has not resumed work toward building nuclear weapons.
The National Intelligence Estimate (NIE) released Monday also concludes that Tehran is most likely 'keeping open the option' to develop nuclear weapons in the future by continuing to build missiles and pursue a civilian nuclear power programme.
The estimate, reflecting the collective judgment of 16 US intelligence agencies, reverses claims made two years ago that Iran appeared 'determined to develop' a nuclear weapons programme.
Although the report undercut the administration's claims that Iran is trying to develop nuclear weapons, President George W. Bush's National Security Adviser Stephen Hadley said the NIE 'offers some positive news'.
'It confirms that we were right to be worried about Iran seeking to develop nuclear weapons. It tells us that we have made progress in trying to ensure that this does not happen,' he said at a White House briefing.
The intelligence estimate 'offers grounds for hope that the problem can be solved diplomatically – without the use of force – as the administration has been trying to do,' said Hadley interpreting the findings as a validation of Bush's Iran policy.
He called on the international community to 'turn up the pressure on Iran with diplomatic isolation, United Nations sanctions, and with other financial pressure'.
'Tehran's decision to halt its nuclear weapons programme suggests it is less determined to develop nuclear weapons than we have been judging since 2005,' the report said.
'Our assessment that the programme probably was halted primarily in response to international pressure suggests Iran may be more vulnerable to influence on the issue than we judged previously,' it said.
The estimate also concluded with 'moderate-to-high confidence' that Iran has not obtained enough materials from abroad to build a nuclear weapon. Iran, the report said, has probably imported some 'fissionable' material, such as uranium, to develop a weapon.
But it said officials lack sufficient intelligence to 'judge confidently' whether Iran plans to re-start its weapons programme.
Iran's decision to halt the programme was 'guided by a cost-benefit approach' that took into account the 'political, economic and military costs' of continuing in the face of world scrutiny and possible sanctions.
Continued pressure, combined with 'opportunities' for Iran to obtain prestige and regional influence without a weapons programme, might encourage Tehran to continue the current halt, the report said.
The report also said the earliest Iran could assemble enough highly enriched uranium for a bomb is late 2009, although that is 'very unlikely'. The country would be capable of producing enough highly enriched uranium for a bomb only in the 2010-2015 time frame.
It added that the Islamic nation is developing the scientific capabilities to create a bomb if it chooses to do so. For example, its 'civilian uranium enrichment programme' is continuing. It also retains the 'scientific, technical and industrial capacity' to produce nuclear weapons in the future if its leaders decide to.
Intelligence officials made no apologies for overlooking that the weapons programme had been halted in the 2005, saying new information indicates that the Iranians halted their secret programme in late 2003, less than 12 months before the 2005 estimates was prepared.
New information causing the intelligence agencies to conclude that the programme had been halted continued to be evaluated until a few weeks ago.
