RSI, The eyes of the world are turning to China as it prepares to blast a man into space.
The Asian giant's first-ever manned space mission is reportedly due to be launched on the 15th of October.
This will make China only the third nation to send a manned vehicle into space, after the United States and Russia.
Analysts say that the mission will ignite Beijing's strategic ambitions and will put it on the same military trajectory as the US.
It is said that China believes it has to have the ability to neutralize US space assets in order to match Washington's strategic ambitions.
For more on this, Bharati Jagdish (BJ) spoke to political analyst, Dr Joseph Cheng (JC) from the City University of Hong Kong.
JC: “This certainly represents a major effort on the part of China to enhance its international status and it is certainly spending a lot to strengthen its national defence. So, as the Chinese economy grows, China's leaders probably believe that it has the resources to strengthen its defence capabilities.”
BJ: Would a successful manned mission this month further the country's space-focussed military and intelligence activities?
JC: “A manned spacecraft with heavy investments in the space programme, China certainly hopes to lay the foundation to develop its space weapons technology at a later stage. Obviously, China understands that the United States, in order to maintain its military superiority in the decades ahead, it is spending a lot on the development of a space weapons programme. Even a country like Russia, with very advanced technology but very limited financial resources, has also established a space military force. So, China certainly understands the significance of the development of a space military capability in the decades ahead. China doesn't want to see a unipolar type of situation – a United States dominating international affairs. It certainly hopes to be one of the major powers constituting a multipolar type of situation.”
BJ: Now, China had experienced a string of failed satellite launches in the 80s and 90s, hadn't it?
JC: “Yes, there were some failures, but I think China's failure rate compares rather favourably with that of the United States and the former Soviet Union. Admittedly, we do not have a very good record of the former Soviet Union's space programme, but it appears that they did suffer from quite a number of failures. China has benefits from the fact that it is a latecomer, so it is in a better position to learn from the mistakes and absorb the technology from other advanced countries.”
BJ: Some analysts say that China's space programme would force countries like the US to face certain issues that it had actually managed to avoid since the Cold War. Would you say the space effort, if it has military motivations, would present a national security threat? Would you go so far as to say that?
JC: “I don't think so. I think it is the US which has been initiating an arms race, if such an arms race is going to emerge. Obviously, the US has the technology, it has ample resources, financial resources and it has the ambition of maintaining it's military superiority in the decades ahead. The major step, on the part of the US, to abandon the Anti-Ballistic Missile (ABM) Treaty with the former Soviet Union, concluded in 1972, was a very important decision here. It signifies, it symbolises that the US wants to develop the National Missile Defence programme, it wants to engage in a space weapons programme. We all remember that this step, this position on the part of the Bush administration, was objected to by not only China, but also Russia and many European powers, including France and Germany.”
BJ: So, would you say that this upcoming mission is China's answer to the US's moves to perfect an anti-missile shield?
JC: “I tend to think so. Obviously, China does not want to see its nuclear deterrence neutralised by the development of a National Missile Defence programme on the part of the US. At this stage, its immediate response would be to build more ICBMs (inter-continental ballistic missiles) and to develop multi-warhead technology so as to maintain the value of its nuclear deterrence and in the decades ahead, it will probably also engage in the development of space military capability, following the footsteps of the United States and Russia.”
BJ: Now, what surveillance targets do you think Beijing will most likely fix on under this space programme?
JC: “Eventually, Beijing would like the capability to monitor the entire world. At the moment, it will probably concentrate on the Asia-Pacific region, from the Chinese coast up to the West coast of the United States. Taiwan, certainly, is a very, very important target. There's no denial that the Taiwan problem is very, very high on the agenda of the Chinese leadership.”
Political analyst, Dr Joseph Cheng (JC) from the City University of Hong Kong, speaking to Bharati Jagdish (BJ).
