Moscow: The proposal by Russian President Vladimir Putin to use jointly with the United States the Gabala radar site, leased by Russia from Azerbaijan, as an element of a missile defense shield is well worth examining through the lens of Azerbaijan's geostrategic interests. How compatible is Putin's initiative with Azerbaijan's national security strategy in the short, medium and long terms?
In line with the agreement between Azerbaijan and Russia, Moscow has repeated that the Gabala radar's activities will not infringe on Azerbaijan's sovereignty, interests or security. Also, Russia has no right, without Azerbaijan's consent, to conclude agreements on the facility with a third party. The Azeri side, for its part, has pledged not to hand over the site to third countries during its period of lease.
Moscow's Gabala initiative poses certain risks to Azerbaijan. Azerbaijan and Iran have signed a mutual agreement not to allow their territory to be used by third countries for hostile actions. It is common knowledge that the aim of an American missile defense system in Europe is to put paid to the Iranian nuclear program. As opposed to the United States, Moscow sees no threat coming from Iran, and this is the basic difference in their approaches to a missile defense shield and joint running of the Gabala radar. Moscow and Tehran are partners and allies.
Converting the Gabala station into an element of an American shield may be viewed by Tehran as a violation on the part of Baku of their previous agreement and as a direct threat to Iran's security. While Iranian missiles will be unable to reach Europe in the foreseeable future, Azerbaijan is within their direct reach. Their low accuracy allows them to be used only against area targets, for example, large cities. The missiles with a range of 1,200 miles and more that Iran now possesses or is developing lack any strategic military value unless they are fitted out with nuclear warheads.
It should be remembered that Lt. Gen. Henry Obering, director of the Missile Defense Agency at the U.S. Department of Defense, made a proposal this spring to deploy elements of a missile system in Europe and the Caucasus. The Bush administration and the Pentagon did not initially rule out locating military facilities in Azerbaijan or Georgia. In the opinion of American military experts, Azerbaijan has a major advantage over Georgia: It has the Gabala radar.
An American missile defense setup is already being deployed both in the United States and Europe. A missile shield is in place in the United States, and work has been completed on a radar station in Britain. These facilities offer early opportunities for protecting America and Western European countries against threats from Iran and North Korea. This project will be finished in 2009, when the radar in Britain will be put in service. A missile umbrella over Eastern European countries requires the placement of elements of a missile defense system in Poland — 10 interceptors — and the Czech Republic, an observation radar. Deployment of separate elements of a U.S. missile defense system in Europe and perhaps in one of the South Caucasian countries should be viewed as NATO enlargement to the east.
