The Russian-Ukrainian War Thread

Feanor · May 12, 2024

KipPotapych said:
Probably unintentional, but the strike was Russian, unless I am missing something.

Fixed, thanks for catching that.

Fredled · May 12, 2024

Feanor said:
Ukrainian FPV drone strikes have hit a bus full of agricultural workers in Belgorod region killing 6 and wounding 35 others. Given the nature of FPV munitions, to me this looks like an act of terrorism. I also suspect this is counter-productive. Meaning Ukraine will cause more support in Russia for the war effort in general and the cross-border invasion of Kharkov region in particular.

I'm always amazed how Ukrainian could decide to waste striking resources on purely terroristic attacks. Especialy in the region of Belgorod where a Russian assault toward Vovtchank and Kharkliv is taking place right now. It's not the time for such things.
There is a terror element in Ukrainian attacks on the region and the city of Belgorod, but they also try to hit useful targets.
In this case I have doubts that their intent was to kill agriculture farmers while being under attack. IMO they either mistook the passengers for soldiers heading to the front (e.g. with a black and white/IR camera) or they really hit a civilian bus carrying soldiers. The video shows only a bus with smashed glasses. If I were a Russian propagandist I would not miss the occasion to show innocent victims in farmer outfits. (Maybe the local Bellgorod tv did?).

Feanor said:
n Belgorod allegedly a Ukrainian Tochka missile hit a residential building collapsing a section of it. Reports so far indicate 28 dead, rescue work is ongoing. The intended target may have been a power plant located across the street from this apartment complex.

Another example where Ukrainian tried to hit something of value but don't care too much if they hit something else.
According to the Reuters link I posted above, Russians claimed to have shot down the missile that hit this building. By all evidences, it was not shot down since its explosive charge hit a building. It was probably deviated rather than shot down.

According to Ukrinform, the explosion was not from an Ukrainian missile but from a bomb planted inside or another cause from inside the building (gaz explosion?). Or, if it was a missile, it came from the north.
I don't believe it, but if someone wants to study the case...

Feanor said:
Ukraine has launched 4 series of strikes against Belgorod. Targets appear to include residential areas and a shopping center. In all likelihood we are once again witnessing indiscriminate lobbing of Grad or Uragan rockets into the city. One strike resulted in 8 wounded civilians. Numbers on the rest are unclear.

I think they are lobbing old, inacurate projectiles which would have little use on the battle field in small quantities.

Feanor said:
Aerial footage of the ruins of Chasov Yar. The town is quickly heading the way of Avdeevka and Artemovsk/Bakhmut.

Feanor said:
A fascinating video from inside the Rabotino salient. A couple of Russian infantry on a dirt-bike navigate the moonscape, dodging artillery fire, only to arrive at what is allegedly a Ukrainian dugout where they throw a grenade and enter.

Courageous soldiers. I wonder what their mission was...
the dug out he entered doesn't seem to be the target. He threw the grenade to make sure before taking refuge inside.

Feanor said:
Russian T-90M eats two FPV drones. It considers catching fire after the first one but decides against it. After that you can see the turret rapidly rotating and the RCWS HMG poiting at the sky presumably to try to shoot down any further inbounds. The tank keeps moving, so presumably it's alive.

Yes. Nonetheless it stops at the end of the video. I'm not a specialist, but, isn't the machine gun supposed to rotate independently from the turet? It seems wierd that the whole turet has to rotate to aim with the machine gun. I ask this because it looks like the turet rotated out of control the moment it was hit. (That's just my impression.)

That being said, on a documentary, I heard Ukrainians saying that while they are generaly happy with their home made drones, many of them fail in the tasks they are supposed to do because they are not produced by professional arm makers. Many don't meet the requirements or have defect. Notably with the explosive charge. This could explain what we see. Note that blowing up a tank with small quad drones like these is not easy.

Feanor said:
2 African soldiers in Russian service. One has a patch of his countries' flag on in addition to the Russian one, but I have to admit, I don't know which country it is.

The videos on ColonelCassad and Danbiev don't play and remain flouted. On the VK video, the red patch doesn't seem to be the flag of a country. But rather the USSR flag (with a little star on top of the Hammer and Sickle logo. Which may mean something else).
The USSR flag has been used by LNR/DNR fighters. But by african fighters?

Feanor said:
and a motor-cycle with the sidecar just being a fuel drum.

I would add that's a very old model of soviet bike (Saturn?)...

Feanor said:
Russian volunteer organizations have taken a BMP-3 MEDEVAC prototype from a museum

When Danilov joked about the Russian taking T34 form their pedestals, he wasn't too far off.

Feanor said:
Ukraine continues to operate aircraft from roadways and improvised air strips, a wise choice given the series Russian strikes against Ukrainian aircraft over the past ~9 months.

LOL: The Mig caught a road sign while landing (or taking off?).

Feanor said:
for LDNR residents the orange-black ribbon has a dual symbolism, Great Patriotic War and the events of '14.

By their ideology, '14 is only the continuation of the Great Patriotic War. At least that's what they want to believe.
___________________

KipPotapych said:
Isn’t it the point where one would throw a white flag out?

The last seconds of the video is interesting. A Russian soldier toss a grenade, a second time, inside the M113 (the 1st time, the grenade exploded under the vehicle). We don't see any explosion, but some paper flying out. Maybe a proposal for surrender?
Or was it just the only visible part of the explosion? Grenades can make very little smoke, but there should be at least some dust or a shock wave visible on the video. Or did the grenade explode later?
___________________

Russian volunteers fighting as part of the Siberian Battalion and Freedom of Russia Legion against Russia’s invasion force called on the Russian military deployed in Kharkiv region to surrender and switch to the side of truth.
Expecting massive surrender would be dreaming. But I'm positive it can have some audience. Russian soldiers are more brainwashed now than 2 years ago. But certainly not all of them.

Feanor · May 12, 2024

Fredled said:
I'm always amazed how Ukrainian could decide to waste striking resources on purely terroristic attacks. Especialy in the region of Belgorod where a Russian assault toward Vovtchank and Kharkliv is taking place right now. It's not the time for such things.
There is a terror element in Ukrainian attacks on the region and the city of Belgorod, but they also try to hit useful targets.
In this case I have doubts that their intent was to kill agriculture farmers while being under attack. IMO they either mistook the passengers for soldiers heading to the front (e.g. with a black and white/IR camera) or they really hit a civilian bus carrying soldiers. The video shows only a bus with smashed glasses. If I were a Russian propagandist I would not miss the occasion to show innocent victims in farmer outfits. (Maybe the local Bellgorod tv did?).

I wouldn't be surprised if your initial theory was correct. If a Ukrainian FPV drone doesn't find a target, they hit anything, including civilians. That having been said the best I could find with some quick googling was this;

Момент удара дрона ВСУ по автобусу в Белгородской области попал на камеру - Российская газета

Момент удара украинского дрона по одному из микроавтобусов в селе Березовка Белгородской области попал на камеру видеорегистратора. Кадры опубликовало местное издание "Блэтгород".

rg.ru

It appears the journalist got there a a bit late. We do have footage from the hospital of what appear to be two women injured. The bus reportedly belonged to a local agro-industrial enterprise.

Another example where Ukrainian tried to hit something of value but don't care too much if they hit something else.
According to the Reuters link I posted above, Russians claimed to have shot down the missile that hit this building. By all evidences, it was not shot down since its explosive charge hit a building. It was probably deviated rather than shot down.

It's a perfectly logical miss. A tragedy.

According to Ukrinform, the explosion was not from an Ukrainian missile but from a bomb planted inside or another cause from inside the building (gaz explosion?). Or, if it was a missile, it came from the north.
I don't believe it, but if someone wants to study the case...

Sure. Putin blew the building up himself to justify invading Kharkov region.

Ukrinform is a garbage source.

I think they are lobbing old, inacurate projectiles which would have little use on the battle field in small quantities.

Vampir and Uragan rockets have been the main culprits in previous strikes.

KipPotapych · May 12, 2024

Flag is of a “used-to-be-kind-of-country” called Biafra:

Biafra - Wikipedia

en.m.wikipedia.org

KipPotapych · May 13, 2024

Fredled said:
According to Ukrinform, the explosion was not from an Ukrainian missile but from a bomb planted inside or another cause from inside the building (gaz explosion?). Or, if it was a missile, it came from the north.
I don't believe it, but if someone wants to study the case...

So there was a bomb planted inside the building, which brought it down. However, if it was a missile, it certainly came from the north. Hard to make this stuff up. But that’s Ukrinform for you.

Fredled said:
Courageous soldiers. I wonder what their mission was...
the dug out he entered doesn't seem to be the target. He threw the grenade to make sure before taking refuge inside.

That’s certainly a possibility and I thought of that as well. It is some pretty crazy stuff, regardless.

Fredled said:
Yes. Nonetheless it stops at the end of the video. I'm not a specialist, but, isn't the machine gun supposed to rotate independently from the turet? It seems wierd that the whole turet has to rotate to aim with the machine gun. I ask this because it looks like the turet rotated out of control the moment it was hit. (That's just my impression.)

I also thought that the turret looked to be rotating uncontrollably. But I am also no expert here, haha.

Fredled said:
By their ideology, '14 is only the continuation of the Great Patriotic War. At least that's what they want to believe.

I am fairly certain those people (LNR/DNR) know exactly who and why they are fighting. I don’t believe the WW2 is it.

Fredled said:
The last seconds of the video is interesting. A Russian soldier toss a grenade, a second time, inside the M113 (the 1st time, the grenade exploded under the vehicle). We don't see any explosion, but some paper flying out. Maybe a proposal for surrender?
Or was it just the only visible part of the explosion? Grenades can make very little smoke, but there should be at least some dust or a shock wave visible on the video. Or did the grenade explode later?

Yeah, it is unclear what happened after the video was cut. I was wondering about it myself. My first thought was that they threw the grenade out of the vehicle along with whatever that thing was that is clearly visible. Another thought was an explosion that threw whatever it was out, but guessing there would be more evidence of an explosion than that. Also thought that it may have been the flag I was talking about, but that would have likely been a little too late. Terrible circumstances either way you look at it.

Another reality check when watching similar videos, that show the expression of those watching and advising/commanding (or simply providing emotional support) on the side of the monitor, there is the genuine desire to kill and win. Quite sobering stuff that we get to see and hear basically for the first time in any war. For those of us who can understand what either of the sides are saying in these videos takes it to another level as well. Or so I think.

Fredled said:
Russian volunteers fighting as part of the Siberian Battalion and Freedom of Russia Legion against Russia’s invasion force called on the Russian military deployed in Kharkiv region to surrender and switch to the side of truth.

Fredled said:
Expecting massive surrender would be dreaming. But I'm positive it can have some audience. Russian soldiers are more brainwashed now than 2 years ago. But certainly not all of them.

You would be extremely disappointed if you are positive about that. That’s my opinion and I have very little to support it with beside some personal knowledge and common sense. Those guys are looked at as worse than traitors that are also not very capable. But that is Ukrinform for you again. I would also suggest that it would have the opposite effect and rile people up instead. For example, if these guys were in that M113, there would likely be no flag that they could throw to prevent what was coming. All that is provided there is any truth to it to begin with, because that really contradicts the basic logic, in my opinion.

Feanor · May 13, 2024

I'll do another update today or tomorrow, things are moving on the Kharkov front. Russian forces are inside Volchansk. Ukraine is rushing reinforcements over. Russian forces are also pushing southward towards Liptsi, gaining ground across several spots. Russian forces resumed advance in several other sections of the front too, likely capitalizing on Ukraine being focused elsewhere. So far the rates of advance elsewhere are unremarkable, roughly in line with what we've seen previously.

Fredled · May 13, 2024

Feanor said:
It appears the journalist got there a a bit late. We do have footage from the hospital of what appear to be two women injured. The bus reportedly belonged to a local agro-industrial enterprise.

Yes. But we came from "13 agro workers killed" to "two women wounded" (and a guy with a small wound on his shoulder).
I agree, it was still not a legitimate target.

Feanor said:
Sure. Putin blew the building up himself to justify invading Kharkov region. Ukrinform is a garbage source.

KipPotapych said:
So there was a bomb planted inside the building, which brought it down. However, if it was a missile, it certainly came from the north. Hard to make this stuff up. But that’s Ukrinform for you.

Yes. They regularly come back with the staged attack script that nobody believes. They are not very subtle.

There is garbage on Ukrinform but not everything is garbage. It's a very complete and various source of sources. (Ukrinform produces little content by themselves)
For example, you can learn there that the Senior Director for Europe at the U.S. National Security Council, has arrived in Kyiv or that Foreign Ministers of Ukraine and Serbia, Dmytro Kuleba and Marko ?uri?, discussed in Belgrade ways to develop bilateral cooperation and the integration of both countries into the EU or that The Council of the EU has finally approved the extension of Autonomous Trade Measures (ATMs) with Ukraine, which suspends the application of customs duties and quotas on Ukrainian exports to the EU or that Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has held a phone call with Luxembourg's Prime Minister Luc Frieden. and with the Prime Minister of Sweden, Ulf Kristersson. along with multiple war and humanitarian evacuation updates which are not forcibly BS.

KipPotapych said:
You would be extremely disappointed if you are positive about that. That’s my opinion and I have very little to support it with beside some personal knowledge and common sense. Those guys are looked at as worse than traitors that are also not very capable. But that is Ukrinform for you again.

No. It's not Ukrinform. It's my opinion. Also note that I said that I don't believe that they will get result. Only that they can get an audience.

Russian soldiers won't surrender because, first of all, they are mercenaries (volunteers if you prefer). They are not going to sacrifice their pay, $2500/month, just because they read a letter from a so called Siberian/Free Russia Battalion. Among other consequences like not being able to return to Russia. Even those who didn't volonteered would think twice or won't see much incentive to do so.

Secondly, there is also a high sens of honor and a mix of brainwashing and sincere belief in their sacred mission to protect Russia against the Nazy and the Decadent West.

It doesn't mean all the Russians are morons. Many of them are able to have their personal opinion. Maybe not the soldiers who are at the front, but people who think nonetheless. The letter call to the sens of honor of the true Russians. Therefore the traitors are those who support Putin and his war. It's not stupid to write these things.
And it's definitely not written by guys in a M113...

_______________________

Ukraine claims one more Ka-52 Alligator.

They also report record number of Russian casualities. Number that I never saw before. You can say that these numbers don't mean anything to you, but I think they do. These numbers are not always the same. So these fluctuation have forcibly a basis. Even if you don't believe the numbers they put forth, you can see a trend.
I would just say that the number reported today was twice the average of high intensity periods, 4x the numbers of low intensity periods, and 50% higher than the highest number I can remember of. That's it 50% higher than the last highest, if you will.
The number of destroyed tanks and armour and other vehicles is also remarkably high, thought not off the charts.

IMO this is an indication that Russians are suffering very high losses in the Kahrkiv/Vovtchank direction.

Feanor · May 13, 2024

Fredled said:
Yes. But we came from "13 agro workers killed" to "two women wounded" (and a guy with a small wound on his shoulder).
I agree, it was still not a legitimate target.

No we don't. There is no change in the story claimed. We have some photos, but in many cases photos of victims won't be released, and even names don't always get released. We have an absence of confirmation, not a confirmation of absence.

Ukraine claims one more Ka-52 Alligator.

Fighterbomber denies it, and suggests a downed Ukrainian Mi-8/17 may be the real story. Again for the time being I would regard him as accurate. He reports on Russian losses even when there are no other sources. Though of course anything is possible. Let's see if footage emerges.

Fighterbomber

Блет, а хохлы то почти не наврали. Действительно сбили гвинтокрыл. Правда есть нюанс... Получается, прихлопнули таракана. Получается тараканом меньше. Получается 47 кремовая чего-то там молодцы?

t.me

Fighterbomber

Хохлы походу опять какой-то свой вертолёт сбили, ибо наши все на месте. Тщи хохлы. У вас из побед за последнее время, только почётное 3е место на конкурсе пидоров. Но и тут вы были только третьи.

t.me

They also report record number of Russian casualities. Number that I never saw before. You can say that these numbers don't mean anything to you, but I think they do. These numbers are not always the same. So these fluctuation have forcibly a basis. Even if you don't believe the numbers they put forth, you can see a trend.
I would just say that the number reported today was twice the average of high intensity periods, 4x the numbers of low intensity periods, and 50% higher than the highest number I can remember of. That's it 50% higher than the last highest, if you will.
The number of destroyed tanks and armour and other vehicles is also remarkably high, thought not off the charts.

IMO this is an indication that Russians are suffering very high losses in the Kahrkiv/Vovtchank direction.

If the point is that Russia is suffering increased casualties when opening up a whole new front to attack from then... yes? We don't need Ukrinform to tell us that. Are the casualties there greater then Ukraine's on the defense? Probably, minus the first positions that were overwhelmed by surprise. On the other hand we are seeing continuous groups of Ukrainian POWs. My initial view was that they caught some Ukrainian detachments off guard, but it now seems to be continuing. I would regard the specific numbers as thoroughly untrustworthy. Are the casualties in Kharkov drastically higher then during Russia's push on Avdeevka or on Artemovsk/Bakhmut? I don't think so. The scale of the fighting is much smaller. So Ukrinform reporting numbers drastically higher then those battles, even as Ukraine is losing ground at a fairly rapid rate and groups of Ukrainian soldiers have surrendered looks to me like an attempt to put lipstick on a pig. I suspect Russia's losses here in totals are much lower then the two battles just mentioned due to the lower scale of the fighting, simply fewer total forces involved (from both sides). I suspect they're losing more then Ukraine, they're on the offensive, but this isn't guaranteed.

KipPotapych · May 13, 2024

Fredled said:
They also report record number of Russian casualities. Number that I never saw before. You can say that these numbers don't mean anything to you, but I think they do. These numbers are not always the same. So these fluctuation have forcibly a basis. Even if you don't believe the numbers they put forth, you can see a trend.
I would just say that the number reported today was twice the average of high intensity periods, 4x the numbers of low intensity periods, and 50% higher than the highest number I can remember of. That's it 50% higher than the last highest, if you will.
The number of destroyed tanks and armour and other vehicles is also remarkably high, thought not off the charts.

IMO this is an indication that Russians are suffering very high losses in the Kahrkiv/Vovtchank direction.

So they are reporting (citing the Ukrainian MoD) that Russians lost 1,740 troops in the last 24 hours? They also lost 31 tanks, 42 AFVs, 15 pieces of artillery, 4 MLRS, 59 vehicles and fuel tankers, among other things (the list is not complete, as I didn’t include everything there is). And you think this is reasonable? Even for trend indicators? Not quiet and not even close. Those are all completely ridiculous numbers. Pretty much every Ukrainian source (not Ukrinform or MoD and the like) report major issues, lack of manpower, lack of organization, lack of communications, and so on.

Here is a post on the Tweeter account that is thought to be more or less reliable, given the obvious constraints of such information gathering:

Personally, I wouldn’t be surprised that personnel losses are higher on the Ukrainian side as well in the north (and many other areas). Not saying that this is the case, but I wouldn’t be surprised if it is. It is the Ukrainian side that gets pounded by the artillery, bombs, you name it. Plenty of videos of Russian troops moving in large groups unimpeded through out the area in the north. For a lot of talk about the “Kharkiv offensive” that they knew was coming and advertised as such, there wasn’t much preparation. This much is yet again clear. Now the talk is that the main defense lines are 10-30 km (depending on the source) further south. I guess we will see if the Russians get there.

In short, instead of the “Russian partisan” raids on the Russian territory and shelling of Belgorod and other regions that provide no obvious advantage, the participants of the events should have been digging in all across the area while all was quite. On the other hand, if there is no personnel to house these fortifications, then that is a different story. Lack of something to counter the FABs doesn’t help either.

Another source for the equipment losses, a Ukrainian source, which includes the entire front, and also includes damaged, abandoned, as well as old, previously undisclosed, equipment:

Війна в Україні. Втрати техніки.

Ежедневная статистика потерь техники на войне в Украине за 12.05.24. Закликаємо долучитися до збору https://t.me/aeronavtyua аеророзвідки 35 ОБрМП ! Він дуже важко йде і кожен донат важливий. https://send.monobank.ua/jar/DwMjkFha1 Картка банки 5375 4112 1702 3444 5168752086770438 ПриватБанк...

t.me

For May 12, 11 piece of equipment lost by the Russians (of which 6 are old) and 7 for Ukraine (of which 2 are old).

seaspear · May 14, 2024

Both Russia and Ukraine as in my previous posts have indicated high levels of disabled ,Russia has even had figures out indicating a thirty percent higher disabled rate in the national male age group that could be surmised to be involved in the conflict ,This graph shows this increase it would be difficult to accurately extrapolate casualty figures from this war certainly in those killed, usually more wounded than killed is typical I understand of wars , but even a casualty with a permanent injury who is not able to resume duties and has to be cared for by the state is perhaps more desirable for opposing sides
https://www.reddit.com/r/europe/comments/1bfag74

KipPotapych · May 14, 2024

A little bit on the situation in the north east of Ukraine. Sort of a summary, if you will.

First, on the validity of the maps and potentially the scale of the Russian advances and what may come. For example, there were numerous reports that there was fighting on the outskirts of the village/town(?) of Liptsy. The reports are fairly abundant, but I will only reference one here for my convenience, one that I will also use as a reference further down my post.

Ukrainian civilians said Monday that fighting had broken out near Lyptsi, a village north of Kharkiv, suggesting that Russian forces may have advanced within 10 miles of the city.

“We were racing out as fast as we could, as we could hear small-arms fire there,” said Krystyna Gavran, 32, catching her breath in Kharkiv after an evacuation mission to Lyptsi.

Facing Russian Advance, a Top Ukrainian General Paints a Bleak Picture

Ukraine’s forces are stretched thin and have minimal reserves to draw on, the chief of military intelligence said, in addition to shortages of weapons.

www.nytimes.com

This is quite a bit different from what most of the maps indicate. For instance, here is a screenshot of the most recent map by Deepstate:

The same map, but a bit of a different scale for perspective:

The defences appear to be lacking immensely. There were numerous reports about the Russians simply walking over the border and continuing on without much resistance for the most parts, until many kilometres deep. The reports vary on how deep, but the area is quite substantial, even if the map cited above was correct.

Ukrainian commander in Kharkiv says defense missing in 'betrayal'

The BBC reported seeing drone footage in Kharkiv that showed Russian troops walking unchallenged into Ukrainian territory.

www.businessinsider.com

Russians simply walked in, Ukraine troops in Kharkiv tell BBC - BBC News

The BBC's Jonathan Beale meets front-line soldiers battling Russia's new incursion in north-east Ukraine.

www.bbc.com

Tatarigami, on the other hand, in his recent Tweeter post (should be readable to anyone) indicates that the fortifications were in place, but I do not see it as very convincing or sufficient. He also mentions that some of the fortification remained from the old Russian positions. He also notes that Vovchansk is much less fortified than Hlyboke (which doesn’t appear to be the perfection either). However, even some of the positions that were fortified best were simply abandoned and occupied by the Russian forces, so that didn’t make any difference. I would note that the claims (by Ukrainians) about the troops leaving their positions have been ever increasing for the past few weeks.

There were also numerous reports that the fortifications that were constructed were not only subpar and didn’t meet the basic requirements, they were also built in the wrong locations that were not practical for defense purposes. Here is one example (via Telegram translate):

КіберБорошно | CyberBoroshno

Нагадаю. Укріплення будують (крім першої лінії під вогнем) не військові. А будує ВЦА. Там де вказують військові. При чому не ті військові які будуть там воювати, а поважні пани з ОУВ. Тому якщо укріплення побудовані максимально тупо без врахування висот, рельєфу та доріг, це до тих військових...

t.me

I will remind Fortifications (except for the first line under fire) are not built by the military. And it is building the VCA. Where the military indicates. Why not those military men who will fight there, but respectable gentlemen from the Ukrainian Armed Forces. Therefore, if the fortifications are built as stupidly as possible, without taking into account heights, terrain and roads, it is for those soldiers who came on a business trip to "rule".
They then take those fortifications from the contractors. And only then they are handed over according to the acts to the brigades that go on rotation and will fight there.

The translation is very difficult to read, but the idea is that the fortifications are built by the civilian contractors rather than the military, which often makes them unusable due to various factors. The post continues to say (it also mentions certain name and ranks, but I am going to save space and only project the point):

At these stages, the maximum corruption component.[…]

Now all these people are praying that the Russians capture the fortification or what was supposed to be there. Because then there will be no evidence or expertise. Even if they are knocked out in two hours, there will be an explanation that the occupiers destroyed everything and took it away.

There also seems to be a lot of dissatisfaction with the political and military leadership. Tatarigami in his post cited above states the following:

Given the current lack of information, it's too early to draw definitive conclusions. However, the abandonment of positions and advancement beyond the grey zone indicates brigade leadership's and the strategic command's inability to react to threats despite having intel

This is the result of systematic issues stemming from a lack of understanding of brigade capabilities and readiness, along with problems in personnel training, leading to an inability to effectively position and allocate resources when needed.

Another Ukrainian source indicates (Tweeter post) a larger problem:

The units were simply not prepared to fight. It's not only a fortifications issue; it's a lack of cohesiveness, poor communication, bad positioning, and poor training of the stationed units.

The good news is that the person responsible for this in Kharkiv was swiftly removed, however I am concerned that this may just be scapegoating.

The bad news is that our highest military and political leadership doesn't like negative reports, and units/commands that report problems are frowned upon. This leads to commanders unwilling to ask for help and report the real state of affairs, instead trying to blur away problems and hoping that they will never bubble up. This is a problem that stems from the highest leadership, not from the bottom.

I could provide more examples, but I am running out of time here. I was also going to touch on the subject of the troops looking after the northern Ukrainian border not being exactly combat ready (and relate it to the idea of making them available for the main battle in Donbas via introduction of western troops), but I will cut it here by what is claimed in the quote above for the moment.

So the situation is very serious. How Russians would want to exploit it remains to be seen. My opinion is that they will commit more forces to it if the current developments continue and see how far they can get and how much of the Ukrainian forces they can draw from the front line elsewhere. City of Kharkiv offensive is out of the question, in my opinion; but if they can move in close and threaten it, they will. It seems they have sufficient manpower for that, if willing. There are further suggestions that there will be another Russian assault in the Sumy region. From the NYT articles cited above:

General Budanov said he expected the attacks in the Kharkiv region to last another three or four days, after which Russian forces are expected to make a hard push in the direction of Sumy, a city about 90 miles to the northwest of Kharkiv. Ukrainian officials have previously said that Russia had massed troops across the border from Sumy.

Pavlo Velycho, a Ukrainian officer operating near the Russian border in the Sumy region, said that Russian shelling of the outskirts of Sumy had recently increased.

“I have no idea if it means anything because those places were often shelled anyway,” Mr. Velycho said. “In any case we are in full combat readiness.”

I definitely outpaced myself because I thought I had more time, but this will have to do for now. To finish off this post, a few more quotes from the NYT article:

“The situation is on the edge,” Gen. Kyrylo Budanov, the head of Ukraine’s military intelligence agency said in a video call from a bunker in Kharkiv. “Every hour this situation moves toward critical.”[…]

“All of our forces are either here or in Chasiv Yar,” he said, referring to a Ukrainian stronghold about 120 miles farther south that Russian troops have assaulted in recent weeks. “I’ve used everything we have. Unfortunately, we don’t have anyone else in the reserves.”

General Budanov assessed that Ukrainian forces would be able to shore up their lines and stabilize the front within the next few days. But he expects Russia to launch a new attack further north of Kharkiv, in the Sumy region.

And in regards to losses:

Fighting on Monday was raging on the outskirts of Vovchansk, a small town about five miles from the Ukrainian-Russian border, northeast of Kharkiv. Russian airstrikes were pounding the town, according to Denys Yaroslavsky, a senior lieutenant commanding a unit currently fighting there.

“They’re dropping five to seven bombs every three minutes,” Lieutenant Yaroslavsky said in a phone interview on Monday morning.

KipPotapych · May 14, 2024

seaspear said:
Both Russia and Ukraine as in my previous posts have indicated high levels of disabled ,Russia has even had figures out indicating a thirty percent higher disabled rate in the national male age group that could be surmised to be involved in the conflict ,This graph shows this increase it would be difficult to accurately extrapolate casualty figures from this war certainly in those killed, usually more wounded than killed is typical I understand of wars , but even a casualty with a permanent injury who is not able to resume duties and has to be cared for by the state is perhaps more desirable for opposing sides
https://www.reddit.com/r/europe/comments/1bfag74

My apologies, but didn’t we discuss this very subject a page or two ago?

seaspear · May 14, 2024

KipPotapych said:
My apologies, but didn’t we discuss this very subject a page or two ago?

What I was trying to raise is that we might get some accurate idea of casualty figures being discussed if we could work out ratio of wounded to killed in action ,thus accompanying article
shows an five hundred and seven thousand men now registered with disability in 2023 the demographer of this stated them to be military invalids this could give some substance to the claims that Russia's casualties for killed in action go into six figures ,this does not include those wounded and able to return to action
В России зарегистрировали рекордное за последние восемь лет число мужчин с инвалидностью в возрасте 31 – 59 лет - Вёрстка

KipPotapych · May 14, 2024

^ It’s not going to work due to the reasons discussed a page or two ago.

More on the fortifications in the Kharkiv area:

✙DeepState✙

Про інженерно-фортифікаційну підготовку Харківщини На даних світлинах — околиці Липців та подарунок від українських платників податків для ворога. Зі слів бійців, дані загородження лежать без діла з літа 2023 року. Не будемо робити висновків, нехай їх зробить комісія, яка розглядатиме...

t.me

These photos show the vicinity of Liptsi and a gift from Ukrainian taxpayers to the enemy. According to the fighters, these barriers have been idle since the summer of 2023.
Let's not draw conclusions, let them be made by the commission that will consider the good faith of the contractors who built the defense structures and the responsible persons who were supposed to exercise control.

My guess is we will be seeing a lot more of that as things evolve. Mind boggling, really. Not at all surprising, however, as I mentioned it previously. The picture is pretty clear and I would bet that we will be seeing more of missing and botched fortifications than properly constructed ones. “Appropriation” of funds is a real thing and it isn’t possible to hide the issue in this case as it is in other areas (unless Russia suddenly starts losing?). It is a lot of funds too:

Ukraine has allocated nearly 38 billion hryvnias ($960 million) to build an extensive fortification network this year.

No safety in retreat: Ukrainian soldiers say rear defensive lines barely exist amid Russian advance

The much awaited aid package is expected to help Ukraine close the firepower gap. But until replenishments arrive, Russia will continue to exploit Ukraine's weaknesses.

apnews.com

In the meantime, Yermak is asking for the sponsor countries to spend 0.25% of their GDP on military assistance to Ukraine, in addition to the $300B of the frozen Russian assets.

Андрій Єрмак

Міжнародна робоча група з безпекових питань та євроатлантичної інтеграції України, яку я маю честь співочолювати разом з колишнім генеральним секретарем НАТО Андерсом Фог Расмуссеном, оприлюднила важливий звіт. У ньому ми обґрунтовуємо необхідність і пропонуємо конкретні кроки для майбутнього...

t.me

It is important that allies spend 0.25% of their GDP on military aid to Ukraine and unlock $300 billion in frozen Russian assets to support our country.

Also mind boggling.

SinisterMinister · May 14, 2024

KipPotapych said:
My guess is we will be seeing a lot more of that as things evolve. Mind boggling, really. Not at all surprising, however, as I mentioned it previously. The picture is pretty clear and I would bet that we will be seeing more of missing and botched fortifications than properly constructed ones. “Appropriation” of funds is a real thing and it isn’t possible to hide the issue in this case as it is in other areas (unless Russia suddenly starts losing?). It is a lot of funds too:

Ukraine has allocated nearly 38 billion hryvnias ($960 million) to build an extensive fortification network this year.

No safety in retreat: Ukrainian soldiers say rear defensive lines barely exist amid Russian advance

The much awaited aid package is expected to help Ukraine close the firepower gap. But until replenishments arrive, Russia will continue to exploit Ukraine's weaknesses.

apnews.com

In the meantime, Yermak is asking for the sponsor countries to spend 0.25% of their GDP on military assistance to Ukraine, in addition to the $300B of the frozen Russian assets.

Андрій Єрмак

Міжнародна робоча група з безпекових питань та євроатлантичної інтеграції України, яку я маю честь співочолювати разом з колишнім генеральним секретарем НАТО Андерсом Фог Расмуссеном, оприлюднила важливий звіт. У ньому ми обґрунтовуємо необхідність і пропонуємо конкретні кроки для майбутнього...

t.me

It is important that allies spend 0.25% of their GDP on military aid to Ukraine and unlock $300 billion in frozen Russian assets to support our country.

Also mind boggling.

Regarding fortifications, interesting piece in Pravda that for some reason I can't find in English about possible embezzlement of the allocated funds.

Где фортификации? Харьковская ОВА платила миллионы фиктивным фирмам

Оновлено о 20:30

www.pravda.com.ua

My guess is this is just a microcosm of the problems afflicting the Ukrainian state. I expect that after the war ends we will eventually get some good reporting about just how corrupt the mobilization administration was. I'm also curious about theft and ineptitude along the supply chain; I've seen rumblings about units not getting the level of replacement parts or even equipment they expected. Ukraine has a civil administration that is just not functional enough for what the war requires of them and I don't think Western governments have paid nearly enough attention to this as a limiting factor.

Feanor · May 14, 2024

SinisterMinister said:
Regarding fortifications, interesting piece in Pravda that for some reason I can't find in English about possible embezzlement of the allocated funds.

Где фортификации? Харьковская ОВА платила миллионы фиктивным фирмам

Оновлено о 20:30

www.pravda.com.ua

My guess is this is just a microcosm of the problems afflicting the Ukrainian state. I expect that after the war ends we will eventually get some good reporting about just how corrupt the mobilization administration was. I'm also curious about theft and ineptitude along the supply chain; I've seen rumblings about units not getting the level of replacement parts or even equipment they expected. Ukraine has a civil administration that is just not functional enough for what the war requires of them and I don't think Western governments have paid nearly enough attention to this as a limiting factor.

KipPotapych said:
^ It’s not going to work due to the reasons discussed a page or two ago.

More on the fortifications in the Kharkiv area:

✙DeepState✙

Про інженерно-фортифікаційну підготовку Харківщини На даних світлинах — околиці Липців та подарунок від українських платників податків для ворога. Зі слів бійців, дані загородження лежать без діла з літа 2023 року. Не будемо робити висновків, нехай їх зробить комісія, яка розглядатиме...

t.me

These photos show the vicinity of Liptsi and a gift from Ukrainian taxpayers to the enemy. According to the fighters, these barriers have been idle since the summer of 2023.
Let's not draw conclusions, let them be made by the commission that will consider the good faith of the contractors who built the defense structures and the responsible persons who were supposed to exercise control.

My guess is we will be seeing a lot more of that as things evolve. Mind boggling, really. Not at all surprising, however, as I mentioned it previously. The picture is pretty clear and I would bet that we will be seeing more of missing and botched fortifications than properly constructed ones. “Appropriation” of funds is a real thing and it isn’t possible to hide the issue in this case as it is in other areas (unless Russia suddenly starts losing?). It is a lot of funds too:

Ukraine has allocated nearly 38 billion hryvnias ($960 million) to build an extensive fortification network this year.

No safety in retreat: Ukrainian soldiers say rear defensive lines barely exist amid Russian advance

The much awaited aid package is expected to help Ukraine close the firepower gap. But until replenishments arrive, Russia will continue to exploit Ukraine's weaknesses.

apnews.com

In the meantime, Yermak is asking for the sponsor countries to spend 0.25% of their GDP on military assistance to Ukraine, in addition to the $300B of the frozen Russian assets.

Андрій Єрмак

Міжнародна робоча група з безпекових питань та євроатлантичної інтеграції України, яку я маю честь співочолювати разом з колишнім генеральним секретарем НАТО Андерсом Фог Расмуссеном, оприлюднила важливий звіт. У ньому ми обґрунтовуємо необхідність і пропонуємо конкретні кроки для майбутнього...

t.me

It is important that allies spend 0.25% of their GDP on military aid to Ukraine and unlock $300 billion in frozen Russian assets to support our country.

Also mind boggling.

Ukraine and corruption? No, no, no. That's a Russian thing. Ukraine is westernized democracy. Not a post-Soviet authoritarian oligarchy. This must be Russian narrative/misinformation.

Meanwhile groups of Ukrainian POW continue to show up in Russian reporting with photos.

seaspear said:
What I was trying to raise is that we might get some accurate idea of casualty figures being discussed if we could work out ratio of wounded to killed in action ,thus accompanying article
shows an five hundred and seven thousand men now registered with disability in 2023 the demographer of this stated them to be military invalids this could give some substance to the claims that Russia's casualties for killed in action go into six figures ,this does not include those wounded and able to return to action
В России зарегистрировали рекордное за последние восемь лет число мужчин с инвалидностью в возрасте 31 – 59 лет - Вёрстка

I wonder why the drastic dip from 2020 to 2022? The data looks strange in more ways then one.

Fredled · May 14, 2024

Feanor said:
We have an absence of confirmation, not a confirmation of absence.

Feanor said:
the first positions that were overwhelmed by surprise.

There weren't much surprise, except, maybe during the first hours. Ukrainians knew that a an attack was being prepared. They saw the forces building up. They just didn't know whhich day it would start.
Now they are expecting an attack on Sumy.

But they couldn't leave the border region without anyone. It's normal than those who were close to the Russian border were ovewhelmed, didn't have time to escape and surrendered. It's also normal that more surrendered as Russians advanced. But it's still very small numbers. A few dozen at best.

IMO, it makes sens for the Ukrainians to build their defence line some 10 or 15 km away from the border. Being too close to the border would make it an easy target to regular artillery. So it's no surprise that Russians could enter Ukraine so fast almost unhindered.

One question, I heard from reports, was why the border area wasn't mined? Another failure to proper organise their defence line.

The second question of course is: Do the Ukrainians have a proper defence line further south? The next days will tell. Accroding to the same reports (I don;t post the link because it's a video in french), only Kharkiv has serious defence installation. The countryside is only dotted with unfinished hide outs.

About Russian casualites reported by Ukrinform: I know they are inflated. But yes, what they reported since the Kharkiv/Vorozhnev front opened is higher than when they stormed Avidiika, Bakhmut or Sivierodonesk. But you have to keep in mind that the casualities on this new front come on top of the same rythme of casualities in other parts of the front where assault continued unabated.

Ukraineform, report numerous assaults from just about everywhere. They don't report on the villages or positions they are losing. But they quote the names of the villages which are being shelled, indicating that they still hold these villages, and those which are being assaulted frontaly, indicating the grey zone of the frontline. They always pretend to have repelled all the attacks all the time. Until you notice that the names of the villages have changed as a result of Russian advance. On rare ocasions, they say that Russians had "partial success", when a position was completely defeated and they were forced to withdraw.
______________________

KipPotapych said:
So they are reporting (citing the Ukrainian MoD) that Russians lost 1,740 troops in the last 24 hours? They also lost 31 tanks, 42 AFVs, 15 pieces of artillery, 4 MLRS, 59 vehicles and fuel tankers, among other things (the list is not complete, as I didn’t include everything there is). And you think this is reasonable?

Yes. I think they are reasonable, thought I said, and repeated, that I believe that they are inflated.
Just see the number of tanks Russia is producing and refurbishing every month. And their lack of armoured vehicles that we start to notice in spite of that. As well as the recruitment numbers.
With their recruiting superiority, they still don't occupy all of Ukraine, it means that something goes wrong somewhere.
In Russia, there are peple who don't have news from their relative firghting in Ukraine for several months. Sometimes he is still alive, sometimes he is dead and npbody told them. Death anouncement are sometimes made 6 months later.
______________________

Result of the last Russian bombings on power plants and power grid:

Ukrenergo said:
Today, on May 14, from 21:00 to 24:00, Ukrenergo is forced to introduce controlled emergency shutdowns in all regions of Ukraine

link

Feanor · May 14, 2024

Update.

Sumy area.

It appears Russia is preparing to enter Sumy region. Russia has used artillery strikes to clear mines.

The Russian-Ukrainian War Thread

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