Royal Australian Navy Discussions and Updates 2.0

ADMk2

Just a bloke
Staff member
Verified Defense Pro
If there was a capacity short fall.. Oh no, we buy more japanese mogamis and push the inital mogami build back. This may also allow some sort of Australianisation to happen on the first locally built mogamis.

I worry that we don't see enough action on the local Mogami build side, there should be contracts being issued frantically, announcements tooling up, etc. Maybe its just me.
Contracts are only just starting for the initial build in Japan. These things take time in defence land…

 

Stampede

Well-Known Member
More " MADE IN JAPAN" ships you think?
Don’t want to be too negative but big projects over many years do tend to change with time.
A look at all the navy builds over the last four decades show how things can change from idea, concept, implementation and final ship / boat off the production line.
Often not necessarily a bad thing.
Most here on DT have an understanding of what we have produced and how the final numbers have eventuated.

The West should be able to handle the landing craft builds.
A sophisticated frigate nudging 5000t I feel is ambitious for the sort of timetable envisioned coupled with the military and civilian infrastructure/ manufacturing demands to be found in Perth

So yes I can see some extra builds for Japan or alternatively a late production outcome.

Cheers S
 

StingrayOZ

Super Moderator
Staff member
Contracts are only just starting for the initial build in Japan. These things take time in defence land…
Yes, but there should be a sense of urgency. This isn't a regular acquisition program happening according to decades of planning, and we would be happy with a decade of IOC. But you are right, this isn't a snap your fingers and contracts and agreements just appear, at a greenfields site, with new primes never built in Australia before, building a type of ship we have never built before, partnered country with minimal military export experience. The weakness and risk is probably mostly in the contracts and agreements.

These are last moments type of stuff. They should be real priority. Every day we get something done is an important victory that could save lives, every weld every rivet asserts Australia's sovereignty and national security. We need to shift our approach. Our mindset.

Which is why perhaps I think additional Japanese built frigates are still likely to happen. Even if everything local is a total dream run, ahead of schedules, under budget, we won't be building them fast enough. We are already at the point of decommissioning Anzacs. We need to preserve crews, we need to build deployable capability, 6 Mogami's can maybe do the work of 8 Anzacs. But 2 Mogami's can't do the work of 4 Anzacs, and the crews will just dissipate and we will be starting from nothing, again. Timing and numbers are critical.

We should be billeting out sailors onto the Mogami's (and other Japanese surface ships) as much as we can now.

With the initial Mogami build I definitely think there was a feeling of testing the waters on how people felt. The reaction I think has shown that the Mogami's were probably the right decision, and people can see the world is a less secure less certain place. Bumping up numbers on an existing program later on seems very sensible.
 

old faithful

The Bunker Group
Verified Defense Pro
Contracts are only just starting for the initial build in Japan. These things take time in defence land…

Origionally, it was planned to have all 11 built by 2040 if remember correctly.
I can't see how Henderson yard could build 8 Frigates between 2031 and 2040 when they will still be building LCH's until 2038.
Meanwhile the 1st of class Hunter will have taken 10 years from 1st steel cut to entering service. I expect the 1st Australian Built Mogami won't take as long, but still longer than the 1st Japanese build. I am just trying to understand when all 11 will be built, and I really don't think 2040 is realistic.
The last ANZAC is scheduled to be paid off by 2043. The 3rd Hunter should enter service around 2036.
 
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Stampede

Well-Known Member
Yes, but there should be a sense of urgency. This isn't a regular acquisition program happening according to decades of planning, and we would be happy with a decade of IOC. But you are right, this isn't a snap your fingers and contracts and agreements just appear, at a greenfields site, with new primes never built in Australia before, building a type of ship we have never built before, partnered country with minimal military export experience. The weakness and risk is probably mostly in the contracts and agreements.

These are last moments type of stuff. They should be real priority. Every day we get something done is an important victory that could save lives, every weld every rivet asserts Australia's sovereignty and national security. We need to shift our approach. Our mindset.

Which is why perhaps I think additional Japanese built frigates are still likely to happen. Even if everything local is a total dream run, ahead of schedules, under budget, we won't be building them fast enough. We are already at the point of decommissioning Anzacs. We need to preserve crews, we need to build deployable capability, 6 Mogami's can maybe do the work of 8 Anzacs. But 2 Mogami's can't do the work of 4 Anzacs, and the crews will just dissipate and we will be starting from nothing, again. Timing and numbers are critical.

We should be billeting out sailors onto the Mogami's (and other Japanese surface ships) as much as we can now.

With the initial Mogami build I definitely think there was a feeling of testing the waters on how people felt. The reaction I think has shown that the Mogami's were probably the right decision, and people can see the world is a less secure less certain place. Bumping up numbers on an existing program later on seems very sensible.
StingrayOZ I don’t want to discount the urgency or the importance of the Mogami build.
A prudent choice, but still a challenge to get viable platform numbers in the water asap.

As mentioned, the ANZACs are starting to retire.

Cheers S
 

Richo99

Active Member
Instead of tranches of 3+4+4, I can see it changing to 5+3+3. 2 extra ships quickly from a hot Japanese line, more time for WA to set up a shipyard, and possibly nearing the mid/ end of the Hunter build to access trained workers (this one is possibly a bit questionable). This would probably give 10+ modern combatants by 2036 (3 x Hobart, 2+ x Hunter, 5 x Mogami). Otherwise either numbers drop, or Anzacs get really old.
I think an extended Japanese build is essential...
 

iambuzzard

Well-Known Member
More " MADE IN JAPAN" ships you think?
Possibly. As I have mentioned before we need to follow their script, don't stop at 11 but adapt and evolve following batches. We need a continuous production that never stops . We must get out of this mindset of finite numbers with single contracts. We need follow on production like Japan. The USN have kept pumping out Arleigh Burkes but they are a gold plated ship with the appropriate high cost. We need to work on economy of scale and a continuous production line will reduce the cost per unit as we won't be reinventing the wheel, so to speak.
 

Volkodav

The Bunker Group
Verified Defense Pro
I seem to recall in an earlier discussion when Australia was researching their own nuclear weapons and the platform of delivery was the F-111 ,that some understanding was achieved with the U.S not to ,I always thought it meant the U.S was to provide that umbrella
I believe it was because both Australia and Indonesia signed the nuclear non poliferation treaty. Basically we both decided to spend on our economic development instead.
 

SammyC

Well-Known Member
Instead of tranches of 3+4+4, I can see it changing to 5+3+3. 2 extra ships quickly from a hot Japanese line, more time for WA to set up a shipyard, and possibly nearing the mid/ end of the Hunter build to access trained workers (this one is possibly a bit questionable). This would probably give 10+ modern combatants by 2036 (3 x Hobart, 2+ x Hunter, 5 x Mogami). Otherwise either numbers drop, or Anzacs get really old.
I think an extended Japanese build is essential...
A point to remember is that Japan is likely to need its ship construction for itself, as it is behind the 8 ball for its own Navy.

Secondly, the first batch of Australian hulls are going to be Australian steel, and the entire fitout from Japan. For all intensive purposes it will be a kit that we assemble (perhaps a little simplified). So they really will be majority Japanese built regardless of where they are constructed.

Our own supply chain might be sufficient to fit Australian made equipment in the third batch onwards.
 

Morgo

Well-Known Member
A good question
Landing craft medium and heavy plus the 8 Mogami Frigates.
Suggest an ambitious endeavour.
I’d suspect some changes in the timetable and vessel numbers will evolve.

Cheers S
How much commonality is there between our LCMs and the McClung class the USN have gone with? As far as I can tell there are minimal differences between the two designs given the same parent design.

I would hope that we are piggybacking off the greater scale of the USN supply chain to reduce the procurement cost of engines / radars / armament / other common systems but I fear that may make too much sense.

Could we get the US yards to build us a few to take the pressure off Henderson?
 

Richo99

Active Member
2043 for HMAS Perth seems extremely ambitious.

HMAS ANZAC lasted 28 years, HMAS Perth would be 37 years old in 2043.
Just as a comparison, unless theres an uncharacteristic burst of speed on procurement timelines, HMNZS Te Kaha is also likely be in her late 30s (or more) when replaced.
 

Reptilia

Well-Known Member
Build timelines

Guardian class production ended earlier this year, now move to LCM.
Evolved Cape production ends 2030/31. (21 ECapes), 11th fitting out currently, 12th/13th/14th under construction.

18xLCM- 2026-2032 > 1st delivered 2028, built at Hope Valley and Henderson facilities, WA.
8xLCH - 2026-2038 > 1st delivered 2029/30, built at CUF, WA.
6xHunter - 2024-2042 > 1st delivered 2032, built at Osborne South shipyard, SA.
11xMogami - 2026-2050, possibly earlier 2045ish (3 Japan + 8 Australia) > 1st delivered 2029, 1st Australian built one delivered mid 2030s. 2036ish.
 

Stampede

Well-Known Member
Build timelines

Guardian class production ended earlier this year, now move to LCM.
Evolved Cape production ends 2030/31. (21 ECapes), 11th fitting out currently, 12th/13th/14th under construction.

18xLCM- 2026-2032 > 1st delivered 2028, built at Hope Valley and Henderson facilities, WA.
8xLCH - 2026-2038 > 1st delivered 2029/30, built at CUF, WA.
6xHunter - 2024-2042 > 1st delivered 2032, built at Osborne South shipyard, SA.
11xMogami - 2026-2050, possibly earlier 2045ish (3 Japan + 8 Australia) > 1st delivered 2029, 1st Australian built one delivered mid 2030s. 2036ish.
Good overview

Looking at the major warships
when do we start to increase the fleets numbers above the current number of ten?
Two variables
Retirement of the ANZACs
Hunter and Mogami Class build outcome.

Absolute best case scenario suggest maybe
2034 , 35 , 36.

Realistically I’m going a decade at the very least.

Not sure of the answer but the time frame and numbers are concerning

Cheers S
 

hauritz

Well-Known Member
Call me cynical if you wish but building Mogamis in Australia will need to survive a couple more defence reviews before construction starts. If it is one thing I learned from the Attack submarine, Hunter frigate and Arafura patrol vessels programs it is don’t count your chickens until those first sheets of metal are cut.
 
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