Royal Australian Navy Discussions and Updates 2.0

[Murse]

No one posted this? Japan has started to build Australia's Mogamis.

First Mogami for Australia in production - Australian Defence Magazine

Production of the long-lead items for the first of Australia’s Mogami-class frigates has begun in Japan, Minister for Defence Industry Pat Conroy has revealed | Nigel Pittaway

www.australiandefence.com.au

Also found this interview with a Japanese representitive from a year ago. Talking about the Australian build program.

Also I think these are the mogami bio-monitors.
View attachment 55598

Unsure if anyone here posts in, or reads the ADM comments section but it's interesting. I cant help but agree the Aus built Mogami's won't happen at all, let alone on time or on budget. LCM and LCH also running late.

 

[KrustyKoala]

Unsure if anyone here posts in, or reads the ADM comments section but it's interesting. I cant help but agree the Aus built Mogami's won't happen at all, let alone on time or on budget. LCM and LCH also running late.

Cant remember exactly but was there not an option to build more than just the 3 initial frigates in Japan in case of delays?

 

[SammyC]

Cant remember exactly but was there not an option to build more than just the 3 initial frigates in Japan in case of delays?

I don't think the contract details have been made public, so it's difficult to know if options for Japanese builds beyond the base three have been included.

I will say that most agreements have options to extend in some manner. The AWDs had an option for a fourth unit. The ANZACs had an additional two. The Virginia deal has options for a fourth and fifth SSN. I think many of our RAAF procurements such as the P8s and F35s did similar.

Contracts are designed to provide agreed solutions to foreseeable future events, and given the risk with the commencement with the Australian construction phase, I would have thought something to mitigate this has been included.

I have a more measured view on the Henderson precinct. I think the decision to walk away from Civmec was a good choice, as I see that it prevents a future inevitable divorce between Austal and Civmec later on when it would be much more destructive. Those two were never going to work harmoniously in the same play pen.

A clean area allows a construction facility to be built from scratch, hopefully copying Osborne with its learnings. Australian ship construction does not need to start until about 2030, giving three years to prepare. We should be able to build a shipyard in that time and procure the long lead equipment to go in it. How it works with a shared in-service maintenance requirement will be interesting to see.

The workforce will be harder, however I'm thinking MHI will mobilise a core leadership and experience trade workforce to Henderson, not too different to how I suspect BAE did for the Hunters (and vice versa with Australians mobilised to the parent yards to learn). I suspect for this to be achieved, the Hanwa ownership has to be dealt with, and perhaps the USA buyout will provide the pathway for this to be achieved. A buyout of more than 20% triggers the Government's right to procure and nationalise the Australian assets. Austal, as a Government agency, reshaped like ASC would be a lot easier for overall management and integration with MHI.

 

[Reptilia]

The contract for the 8 built by Austal will be signed in 2028 or 2029 according to them.
The government said they expect steel to be cut in 2031 and they also said a 2 year drumbeat for each ship.

A probable timeline…

Cut Steel-Delivery-Service

Japan
1/ 2026/2029/2030
2/ 2028/2031/2032
3/ 2030/2033/2034
Australia
4/ 2031/2035/2036
5/ ?-2037-2038
6/ ?-2039-2040
7/ ?-2041-2042
8/ ?-2043-2044
9/ ?-2045-2046
10/ ?-2047-2048
11/ ?-2049-2050

NZ purchasing a few ships from Japan and having them delivered from 2035 would make it hard for Aus to buy another.

 

[StingrayOZ]

Unsure if anyone here posts in, or reads the ADM comments section but it's interesting. I cant help but agree the Aus built Mogami's won't happen at all, let alone on time or on budget. LCM and LCH also running late.

I worry. Its big challenges, and output signs imo haven't been positive.

NZ purchasing a few ships from Japan and having them delivered from 2035 would make it hard for Aus to buy another.

How about the US buying 2-3 ships and Japan trying to fix all of the US shipyards.

I worry about the risks that are now approaching. Mogami is such an interesting product that the US may play hardball to get it. Hardball where we get left out of future production and supply chains and deliveries are bent to US whims. While WA seems to not have a cohesive collective will to push through with success, but seems focused on more government money flowing into projects that struggle.

 

[SammyC]

I worry. Its big challenges, and output signs imo haven't been positive.


How about the US buying 2-3 ships and Japan trying to fix all of the US shipyards.

I worry about the risks that are now approaching. Mogami is such an interesting product that the US may play hardball to get it. Hardball where we get left out of future production and supply chains and deliveries are bent to US whims. While WA seems to not have a cohesive collective will to push through with success, but seems focused on more government money flowing into projects that struggle.

At the risk of swaying into the US blog territory, an alternative outcome is that an Australian Mogami production facility may actually help the American frigate need and could be a benefit of the Mogami over the other designs being considered.

Australia will in due course set up manufacturing all the way down to toilet seats for the Mogami (its not just the steel yard construction), meaning that a future American requirement could draw on both the Australian and Japanese supply chains. In the future it could be people as well. It could even be ships (or modules thereof) made in Australia for America.

It could become similar to AUKUS with three Mogami construction and supply chains all interwoven.

Perhaps the Americans coming onboard with the Mogami, would prompt our own Government to accelerate, much as they have been (supposedly) directed to by the Americans with an SSN maintenance facility.

I should note that the Henderson construction drum beat is very slow (see above from Reptilia) and could significantly be sped up (the Japanese pump out two a year, we will be doing one every two years). That is a money and effort discussion, but if the need arose it could be done.

 

[iambuzzard]

At the risk of swaying into the US blog territory, an alternative outcome is that an Australian Mogami production facility may actually help the American frigate need and could be a benefit of the Mogami over the other designs being considered.

Australia will in due course set up manufacturing all the way down to toilet seats for the Mogami (its not just the steel yard construction), meaning that a future American requirement could draw on both the Australian and Japanese supply chains. In the future it could be people as well. It could even be ships (or modules thereof) made in Australia for America.

It could become similar to AUKUS with three Mogami construction and supply chains all interwoven.

Perhaps the Americans coming onboard with the Mogami, would prompt our own Government to accelerate, much as they have been (supposedly) directed to by the Americans with an SSN maintenance facility.

I should note that the Henderson construction drum beat is very slow (see above from Reptilia) and could significantly be sped up (the Japanese pump out two a year, we will be doing one every two years). That is a money and effort discussion, but if the need arose it could be done.

I believe Japan are standing up a third shipyard that would increase production. Can anyone elaborate?

 

[old faithful]

Cant remember exactly but was there not an option to build more than just the 3 initial frigates in Japan in case of delays?

I just read an article about this.
The article mentiins the 11 ordered, and the first 3 ships being built in Japan. Then it jumps to the remaining 7 ships being built in Australia. It mentions the remaining 7 ship build several times in the context that it is sureing up Australian ship building. 3 +7 =10 not 11, perhaps it is the first 4 ships built in Japan, but not announced yet....just a thought.

 

[Reptilia]

I believe Japan are standing up a third shipyard that would increase production. Can anyone elaborate?

MHI Nagasaki + Tamano
Japan Marine United is the other existing yard that will also build the New FFM. They also build 1 of the new ASEV, the Sakura class OPVs and the new Awaji class Minesweepers.

 

[iambuzzard]

I just read an article about this.
The article mentiins the 11 ordered, and the first 3 ships being built in Japan. Then it jumps to the remaining 7 ships being built in Australia. It mentions the remaining 7 ship build several times in the context that it is sureing up Australian ship building. 3 +7 =10 not 11, perhaps it is the first 4 ships built in Japan, but not announced yet....just a thought.

Either that, or the government cut it back to 10 without announcing it.

 

[Stampede]

Either that, or the government cut it back to 10 without announcing it.

The original thought was between 7 and 11 Ships
When Mogami was selected the top end number of 11 was the number to be built.
All good news.
Hooray!!!!
Realistically it’s a long build and as we know with recent ship builds , numbers do appear to be somewhat flexible.
My view is it was probably a numbers oversight for an implied total of 10.
But in 2026 who knows
Mogami build may end up at 7 or a long term build of 17 or some other number.
It’s early days.

Let’s get the first three ASAP

Cheers S

 

[Reptilia]

Largest ADF in 25 years.

https://www.minister.defence.gov.au/media-releases/2026-09-15/largest-adf-25-years

• The ADF enlisted more than 8,100 personnel, the highest intake in 16 years
• The full time and permanent workforce now exceeds 64,000 personnel, making it the largest it has been in 25 years
• The separation rate – or number of people choosing to leave the ADF – was 7.4%, down even further from last year’s 7.9%, and the lowest it has been in 15 years

-Navy achieving its highest intake in 16 years
-Army its highest intake in 12 years
-Air Force its highest intake in 24 years

‘Australians continue to put their hands up to serve, with Defence receiving almost 74,000 applications in the 2025-26 financial year. Navy and Air Force both recorded year-on-year growth in applications.

The ADF is on track to meet the Albanese Government’s target of 69,000 permanent Average Funded Strength by the early 2030s – a key workforce objective reaffirmed in the 2026 National Defence Strategy, which provides a credible and budgeted pathway to grow the Defence workforce.‘

100,000+ by 2040 is the goal.

 

[iambuzzard]

Largest ADF in 25 years.

https://www.minister.defence.gov.au/media-releases/2026-09-15/largest-adf-25-years

• The ADF enlisted more than 8,100 personnel, the highest intake in 16 years
• The full time and permanent workforce now exceeds 64,000 personnel, making it the largest it has been in 25 years
• The separation rate – or number of people choosing to leave the ADF – was 7.4%, down even further from last year’s 7.9%, and the lowest it has been in 15 years

-Navy achieving its highest intake in 16 years
-Army its highest intake in 12 years
-Air Force its highest intake in 24 years

‘Australians continue to put their hands up to serve, with Defence receiving almost 74,000 applications in the 2025-26 financial year. Navy and Air Force both recorded year-on-year growth in applications.

The ADF is on track to meet the Albanese Government’s target of 69,000 permanent Average Funded Strength by the early 2030s – a key workforce objective reaffirmed in the 2026 National Defence Strategy, which provides a credible and budgeted pathway to grow the Defence workforce.‘

100,000+ by 2040 is the goal.

What we don't want is a politicized campaign to increase our defence force size. This must be bi-partisan. We are virtually headed into a wartime situation. Planning must be for a worst case scenario

 

[iambuzzard]

At the risk of swaying into the US blog territory, an alternative outcome is that an Australian Mogami production facility may actually help the American frigate need and could be a benefit of the Mogami over the other designs being considered.

Australia will in due course set up manufacturing all the way down to toilet seats for the Mogami (its not just the steel yard construction), meaning that a future American requirement could draw on both the Australian and Japanese supply chains. In the future it could be people as well. It could even be ships (or modules thereof) made in Australia for America.

It could become similar to AUKUS with three Mogami construction and supply chains all interwoven.

Perhaps the Americans coming onboard with the Mogami, would prompt our own Government to accelerate, much as they have been (supposedly) directed to by the Americans with an SSN maintenance facility.

I should note that the Henderson construction drum beat is very slow (see above from Reptilia) and could significantly be sped up (the Japanese pump out two a year, we will be doing one every two years). That is a money and effort discussion, but if the need arose it could be done.

Once the third shipyard is operating in Japan they should be pumping out 3 Evolved Mogamis a year.

 

[StevoJH]

For how long though?

At that rate they will have replaced all the smaller DE/Frigate sized ships in their navy within less than 10 years.

Do they continue expanding after that? Or do they stop building and get block obsolescence in 20-25 years?

 

[Volkodav]

Something that keeps coming up is how people think we can't build ships or anything complex in Australia. We demonstratably can.

The issue is, it takes over a decade to train and skill a workforce, but less than a year to lose it.

This is precisely why black holes are so damaging and costly. Just look at the UK, US and Germany, versus France, Italy, Korea and Japan.

Nations which accept that infrastructure and workforce are capabilities, and are worth maintaining are in much better shape now, than those that didnt.

 

[iambuzzard]

For how long though?

At that rate they will have replaced all the smaller DE/Frigate sized ships in their navy within less than 10 years.

Do they continue expanding after that? Or do they stop building and get block obsolescence in 20-25 years?

They'll probably continue building for us if we don't get our act together.

 

[devo99]

Unsure if anyone here posts in, or reads the ADM comments section but it's interesting. I cant help but agree the Aus built Mogami's won't happen at all, let alone on time or on budget. LCM and LCH also running late.

Cynicism aside; regarding the comment about Birdon building LCH offshore, their Port Macquarie yard is about to be freed up once STS Young Endeavour II launches. Perhaps it is more likely they will move some of the LMV-M build to that yard seeing as the space is there and they designed the thing.

 

[Reptilia]

Cynicism aside; regarding the comment about Birdon building LCH offshore, their Port Macquarie yard is about to be freed up once STS Young Endeavour II launches. Perhaps it is more likely they will move some of the LMV-M build to that yard seeing as the space is there and they designed the thing.

Austal were already given the contract for both LCM and LCH. Both begin construction at Austals Hope Valley + Henderson facility( including CUF) in Q4 this year.
Birdon did not complete the design and it is now up to Austal to finish.

Birdon have the Land 8710 phase 1B contract, the 15 Amphibious Logistics vehicles + Prototype.

Phase 3 is the only contract up for grabs, an unknown number of Littoral Manoeuvre Patrol vessels. CB90, Mark VI, X18 combat boat have all been suggested(none have good range), another is the Aircat Bengal which funnily enough also has kamewa waterjets like the LCM and EOS RWS and aimed at Australia + Allies.