Ananda
The Bunker Group
Commentary: China’s COMAC will not rock Airbus-Boeing boat for now, but it’s a matter of time
The COMAC C919 stole the limelight at the Singapore Airshow and went on a demonstration tour of Southeast Asia, but it will still be a hard sell outside of China for now, says Endau Analytics’ Shukor Yusof.
COMAC seems knew well their logistics support limitations. Thus when they are aiming export, they are aiming near home first. In this case South East Asia. China Inc are also aiming the business model by becoming investors in small start up airlines. They are doing in Indonesia and seems also going to that in Brunai. Those Airlines that will become entry point in the market.
Thus they are not aiming mature big market (they already have that in their domestic), but more to fast growing market. That'll be Global South market, and they begin it with the closest ones. They are not going to East Asia which's mature ones. If they can get enough foot hold in SEA market, I suspect then they go to South and Central Asia. Thus they are know have to build their own supply chains first.
The logistics chains is the ones that determine, in any market and any products, the potential of any new comer going to succeed or break. They have to begin closer to home. That's also what Embrear done with entering North America first, before entering other market. It will take times, but this is the game of gaining momentum.
Still I do agree they move for this time on C939 bit questionable. Building new clean design from scratch is very big endeavor and big investment. Even Boeing and Airbus this last past two decades only giving one each clean design of 787 and A350. Playing with three clean design (C919, C929, and C939), on relatively close time frame, is questionable in my opinion.
For me, I'm more interested on how China going to build their own Aero Industry Ecosystem chains. When they're able to do that, it's ussualy their strength. That's what happens in EV market. Something that even Elon acknowledge that. The talk on Hybrid EV or Hydrogen Aero propulsion in future, can also means some potential for new Player to come out. Like in EV market, Chinese cars manufacturers knows they are having bigger challenges entering combustion engines market. However they see chances when EV market gaining momentum.
So if Hybrid Propulsion do come out faster in Aero Industry, could China capitalize that with their now leading possition in EV industry capabilities? I believe they can.
Note:
Edit toward various typo and grammar error.
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