Outstanding forecast, now can you let me know the lotto numbers while we’re at it?
In any case these opinions haven’t progressed the “Virginia Class aren’t coming” argument very far…
The release of the updated US National Defence Strategy does move the US to a much more isolationist approach, both from Russia and China.
The pull back from Russia has been evident for some time, however the more overt language on China is a change. 12 months ago, the Trump presidency had China as their greatest threat, and the China hawks in the administration were on the asendency. This no longer seems to be the case.
In question, is will this be a pendulum, returning to the centre when Trump departs, or will it be a fulcrum move, lasting long afterwards, irrespective of the next President.
I think the money is moving to the latter, and the change will be set by the time Trump departs. Either American sentiment will have changed towards deglobalisation, or the Americans will be consumed with their own internal issues, or a realisation that they no longer have the capacity to be a worldwide (or even a Pacific) hegemon and are forced to retreat. It all leads to the same end point of America disengaging and conceding.
So, I view that Mark Carney's words are very poignant. In a lawless world, you need to defend yourself. Australia is perhaps slow to this understanding. Canada and Europe have already clicked onto this.
I do actually think this (perhaps counter intuitively) strengthens AUKUS. I think a disengaged America would actually be more comfortable sell Australia submarines, such that America can pull out of the region.
Counter ballancing that optimism, it might however come with the acknowledgement that Australian SSNs will operate in place of USN subs, rather than alongside them.
